TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

I missed this in my skimming before, but Eomer openly declared himself as Hunter:

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

So why did he choose to kill Cailin instead of Boromir? Cailin had already voted for him when Eomer voted, so it wasn't her vote. There must have been some reason he trusted Boromir.
That said, Boromir kept carefully neutral about the vote - claiming he believe Eomer innocent despite his vote. Would a wolf have snapped at the bait? In any case, this makes Boromir seem more innocent to me.

Originally Posted by CAILIN!

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

Casts suspicion on Firefoot. She's innocent.
Casts suspicion on Esty. Innocent.

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.

[Firefoot]

Let's have a look at what he was thinking:

He started out on Day 2 here:
Wolfy - Lhuna and Mr. U.
Neutral to guilty - Fea and Encai

He started leaning towards Mr. U.'s innocence as the Day went on.

His last words:

I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.

It seems likely to me that one (maybe both) of the wolves would be on LMP's suspect or questioning list. That would be Esty, Formendacil, Mr. U., Encai, or Lhuna. If there were a wolf that wasn't on his list, I would be most inclined to suspect TGWBS, who I am extremely unsure about. He seems innocent, but I can't help but suspect him. I am currently inclined towards believing that killing LMP was a set up of Fea.

I would really like to hear more from Lhuna, which unfortunately probably won't happen before I go to sleep tonight. There just isn't enough to go off for her. I'd also like to hear more from Encai, as she is seeming more suspicious to me yet there's not a lot to back it up one way or the other.

[Encaitare]

The first thing I would like to address is the fact that people are taking note of the fact that I did break the tie between Fea and Shelob. However, don't look at the votes alone. In post 190, I as good as said that I would be voting for her:

Originally Posted by me

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

When I said this, the voting situation was like this:

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

Think about it. If I had actually cast the vote at that time, would it be as big a deal? It has been suggested that Fea and I are the two remaining wolves. When I cast my vote, there was a tie between Shelob and Fea, and Mr. Underhill had two. If Fea and I were wolves together, I could have voted for Mr. U, thereby lynching both him and Shelob, and skipping over Fea.

I am now going to go through what has been said thus far and then post further thoughts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Right now I'm going back to my theory that one of the votes for Anguirel on the first day was cast by a wolf. I was wrong with my first suspect, Shelob. I am now looking very closely at Encai; she voted for both lynched innocents on both days. On the second day, she broke a tie, thereby saving Fea's neck. On the first day, her vote came when Cailín was leading, creating a bandwagon effect for Anguirel, and away from the one wolf we know of so far. This would make me suspect Fea as her ally, though I'm not sure of my reasoning yet.

(cross-posted with Firefoot and Encai...)

[the guy who be short]

Esty, I have already mentioned a potential Enca-Fea team in an earlier post.

However, I did not notice that Enca had previously stated she would be voting Shelob. This does make her seem less suspicious.

Lhuna and Fea, followed by Mr U and Enca, seem most suspicious to me at the moment. I will probably vote for one of the former, and am leaning towards Lhuna.

[the guy who be short]

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

[Boromir88]

Boromir88 has so far voted for me and only me. On Day 1 I found that insulting (as everyone undoubtedly remembers), and on Day 2 I found that suspicious. However, although I know that Boromir was voting for an innocent, there's no evidence I can present to prove it, and I can only say that he's gone off down the wrong track. Oddly enough, this makes me somewhat more sure of his innocence, since I did the same thing back in my last village. On the other hand, it could be the quieter partner of a Wolfish partnership casting a quiet, more ignored vote...~Formendacil

You're kind of on the right trail. It's true that I've been safe in my voting, and have voted for someone (ahem, you), because I was not confident in any of the people who were being called "wolves." (Even Cailin I admit, though I never said she wasn't a wolf, I just didn't think she was at that time).

Also, I'd like to point out another little thing when I voted. Votes were tied between me and Shelob on Day 1, if I was a wolf, I would have voted for Shelob, to save me. But, I did not think Shelob was a wolf (and oh she wasn't), so I didn't want to vote for her.

Same for yesterday, I did not think Shelob or Mr. Underhill were wolves, and Shelob wasn't, though Mr. U might be.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

1) There are times when it's not that I have a specific shred of evidence but rather a general feeling and I've found that these feelings have a good chance of being right. After his notorious reaction to Boromir's vote he seems to change according to what he thinks we want to see. Remember that the wolves have the ability to PM during the day so shifts in behavior can be suspicious that is what I found in Cailin in those post was an abrupt change in behavior.

2) Sorry but they will stay, because at times if you tip your hand too quickly the opportunity is gone. I am waiting out the day to see if suspicious behavior continues in one or two individuals and if it's cyrptic well that is my choice and hopefully it leads to good.

[the guy who be short]

Morm:

There are times when it's not that I have a specific shred of evidence but rather a general feeling and I've found that these feelings have a good chance of being right.

That's what I felt about Shelob... unfortunately, there are time constraints just at the moment, though I shall return later. Can you point to actual shifts Formen has made?

Also, though I believe you to be innocent, your crypticisms are most trying. Please do explain by the end of the Day, as you will most likely die in the Night.

[Boromir88]

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.~TGWBS

That's quite possible. I admit I said the same thing on the regards of Shelob and Lhuna on the first day, but that's the way I always am. Quietness usually isn't something that wolves do, especially on Day 1. They like to get out there and manipulate early, then sort of ride along with the "loudmouths." I'm considering Lhuna as a possible wolf.

With that being said, I was strong against Feanor as a wolf yesterday, today I'm less sure, because of lmp's death. Either Fea is pulling a bold bluff, or the wolves are trying to set her up, I think it's the latter. The wolves knew that at the end of yesterday Fea was attracting suspicion, so they set her up at night with lmp's death and have an easy victim that they think people will go after the next day. So, Fea's not a wolf, atleast from this moment (it may change).

So, who's our other wolf? I'm still considering mormegil, though nothing big. Firefoot I'm pretty convinced is innocent, after voting for Cailin, and then as tgwbs shows Cailin accusing her.

Since I think Fea was set up lastnight I think anyone that tries to push for her lynching is somewhat suspicious. Unless if someone here can convince me that Fea is pulling a bluff and not being set up?

[Encaitare]

Going down the list...

TGWBS - Not really sure, but I'd like to respond to this:

Originally Posted by el tipo bajo

Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence.

Huh? There be no Sauce in this village. Methinks Boro was confused or making a joke.

Boromir88 - I still suspect him based on that "known innocent" comment. A wolf trying too hard, perhaps?

Feanor of the Peredhil - The fact that LMP voted for her could be telling. She might be a wolf who decided to off the only one who suspected her enough to make that vote. Her vehemence about how the wolves would be bluffing left and right makes me wonder if she put the image of loudmouth wolves in our minds, and then quietly killed LMP, most contrarily to her hypotheses about wolvish behavior. *goes mad trying to make sense of this*

Formendacil - As I said yesterday, his voting is interesting. What he does today could be telling.

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

Alas, my sister needs to use the computer for a project, which means that I shall have to return later. I'm sorry this post is so brief.

[mormegil]

For those who believe that Firefoot and I are innocent my advice regarding the Fea-problem is to wait and see what she has to say in this alleged long post of hers. Let's wait and see what she has to say and analyze it from there. We are currently all talking ourselves in circles about her. One thing to be certain is that a Fea-wolf wouldn't shy away from accusing fellow wolves openly.

[Boromir88]

To clear up the Sauce thing once and for all, I wasn't making a joke, I honestly thought he was a player for some unknown reason. I think I was so excited to start this "experienced" Werewolf...thing, I just assumed Sauce was in it. And as far as my other suspicions those were jokes, I just thought it be fun to pick 3 random people label them as wolves and see how close I was .

With that being said I think I'll probably vote for Formendacil (what a surprise?) or Encaitare today.

And I think Feanor is being set up, that's basically what I'm thinking right now if you must know.

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

I'm sorry if that post aggravated you - I was just trying to get into the role playing spirit of things and have a bit of fun, especially as it was morning and I didn't yet have time to write an analyzing post. Those who know my writing from the "Entish Bow" RPG may recognize my tendency to facetiousness and to exaggeration. There's so much out of character exchange during the day - I'm way out of character now! - that I thought it would be enjoyable to recapture a bit of that. However, if all prefer to drop any role-playing, I shall bow to the majority.

[mormegil]

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

However, what's done is done, and I am still no closer to finding a victim

A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.

[Firefoot]

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

[Mister Underhill]

Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best.

Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt.

Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around.

Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on.

More later...

[Formendacil]

I'll try and make a responce to Mormegil's well-thought out, but somewhat misguided accusation post against me... We start with the Day 1 posts:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Remember, this was Day 1. No one could be proven innocent based on voting records or reasons for lynching people because none were as yet known. With Post 61, I was hesitant to push for a lynching myself because pushing for a lynching always is a very wolfish thing to do- and as an innocent, I wanted as many villagers left alive as possible. In my last village, I didn't give enough thought to the consquences of killing my fellow villagers, and so the Werewolves won and I was on the table for supper.

As regards 73, my idea of mass-abstention was just that: an idea. Obviously, once someone started voting, it was entirely out of the question, but the idea occurred to me at that point that it might be interesting if the entire village didn't vote. After all, what could the phantom have done to a whole village of us?

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

By now someone had already voted, I believe, so my mass-abstention idea was no longer viable. As for Anguirel and LMP, I was "thinking" out loud as to who to vote for. As already mentioned, there was no evidence as to who the Wolves were, and being smart, they weren't going to go and show themselves. So a random reason was as good as any other, and the best random reason I could come up with was LMP's "personal" life.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Make what you will of it. Innocents and Werewolves lynched by us villagers are the victims of our votes as surely as Eomer and LMP were the Werewolves victims.

As for the "deeply insulted" bit, I've explained that before, and harping on about that isn't going to make it any clearer than it already is.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Of course it was my first long post of the game! Master Mormegil, surely you remember my style from the LAST village we died in? My style is to have one major post per day, listing all current players, and saying what I'm feeling about them. This was rather impossible on Day 1, when there was nothing to go by. On Day 2, there are things to go by, but there is no established pattern, and I am usually hesitant to condemn anyone without being 100% positive about it- a lesson learned from the "Wilwarin and Azaelia Situations" in my last villager.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

Not much to say here, since there aren't really any accusations to defend myself from. Thank you for explaining why I seem so suspicious, as you said at the end:

Originally Posted by Mormegil

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.