TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

mormegil · 10-22-2005, 12:21 PM

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

Quote:

However, what's done is done, and I am still no closer to finding a victim

A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.

Firefoot · 10-22-2005, 12:35 PM

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-22-2005, 01:08 PM

Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best.

Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt.

Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around.

Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on.

More later...

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-22-2005, 01:38 PM

I'm trying to find a pattern in all of this, but I can't seem to cut my list of suspects down definitively yet. As I explained earlier, Enca and Fea are on it, Formy and Lhuna too, and most others are uncertain to innocent in my eyes right now. I'm debating whether to sleep on my ideas in hopes of waking up bright and early with the solution, or whether to stay up long enough to make a decision this evening...

the guy who be short · 10-22-2005, 01:43 PM

I'm bored of waiting.

++Lhunardawen

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-22-2005, 01:52 PM

I'm still undecided and going off to sleep over my thoughts. I shall set my alarm to wake me early so as to vote before the deadline. That means two things: 1 - I will not be posting during the next hours. 2 - I will be voting late for a change. I hope no one will try to interpret that to my disadvantage. G'night!

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-22-2005, 02:56 PM

Okay, finally caught up reading, at least. No time for a completely substantive post, but I'll put in a few thoughts at least:

Fea: I don't flat-out accuse anyone of guilt because I'm not sure of their guilt. I'm more suspicious of people who make definitive statements -- he's guilty, she's a "known innocent". Only the seer and the wolves are in a position to make such accusations, as far as I can see. Having said that, I'm leaning away from you as a prime suspect, based on your and others' posts today. Still have my eye on you, but less convinced than I was when I cast my vote yesterday.

Formendacil has risen high on my list. Has voted for me twice and I know I'm innocent. I was willing to write it off earlier as misguided voting, but Form's still after me, despite having other more suspicious candidates. Either he's a wolf trying to keep suspicion of me high or is a seriously misguided villager. More than this, though, is morm's post 236, which lays out a pretty damning case against Form -- especially that "victim" slip. Nice catch.

Some compelling points have been made about Lhuna, though I can't get a read on her. On my suspicious list, but I don't know if I have enough evidence to cast a vote her way yet.

Esty's been flying under the radar. She's managed to avoid controversy for the most part, but if she's as confused as I am as a first time player, I'm not surprised that she'd be trying to play it safe. I still feel pretty good about her.

Can't figure out tgwbs -- his analysis posts seem helpful and straightforward, but not incredibly insightful. Haven't seen anything yet to make me think "wolf", but not sure of him either.

Right now I'm leaning towards Enca or Form as my top suspects.

Firefoot · 10-22-2005, 03:00 PM

What if Esty was a wolf? Hitherto I have given her little notice, largely passing her off as innocent. But maybe not...?

Her lack of concrete suspicions could easily be passed off as a werewolf newcomer's general uncertainty in trying to figure out her place. She has started to give some stronger opinions, but that could be a cautious wolf figuring out where it would be safe to cast suspicion.

IF she were, I think her cohort would have to be Fea. Her primary vein of suspicion has been the people who voted for Ang on Day 1 - Encai, Mr. Underhill, and Lhuna. Also, she tried to take suspicion off herself for having voted for Shelob two days in a row by placing focus on Formendacil and Boromir. It could also be Morm, I suppose, but I'm fairly convinced of his innocence.

Esty has said that Fea is unpredictable and mentions her as slightly suspicious. Fea has been fairly convinced of Esty's innocence, though she would "put little past her." Fea could very well unpredictably be trying some subtlety...

Now this basically negates every theory I've so far put out there, so I'm by no means saying it's correct. But certainly something to think about.

mormegil · 10-22-2005, 03:07 PM

Firefoot I hear you and think it is worth looking into. As I believe you to be innocent I trust your analysis so I ask you to do a full investigation of her please. I feel like I did a decent one of Formendacil. I'm still trying to get a grip on three others I deem suspicious. Namely

Feanor
Encaitare
TGWBS

so if you would complete this I would be most grateful.

Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her.

Edit: the one downside about accusing Esty right now is that she won't be able to defend herself but if she is a wolf who cares.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-22-2005, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her.

Would you prefer I was a sincere innocent that sat in front of a computer for HOURS on one of my only days off, pouring through the thread for clues, weird statements, and every speck of "important" information I could find, or would you prefer me being a bloody lying lycan?

Just thought I'd ask.

Boromir88 · 10-22-2005, 03:52 PM

Fea, so you want to know why I changed my views on you, hey?

Well, I think you are probably one of the most likely person here to try to attempt a bluff, but I just think you are being set up.

Taking last voting day into account it seemed high suspicions of you were growing (myself included, and I believe lmp was quite suspicious of you too), a perfect set up for the wolves. They have an easy target to go after (you) the next day if one of the people that you suspected was killed. Also if they kill the person you voted for.

So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf?

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me. I feel confident today that the one's with a lot of pressure on them today atleast one is a wolf (Formendacil, Lhuna, or Enca). So, again...I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

If Form's a wolf, this makes me still perfect, and hopefully you numbskulls will finally see that I'm innocent.

mormegil · 10-22-2005, 04:15 PM

I am going to make my intentions know that I will be waiting to vote until near the end and I would like Firefoot to do the same. The reason is because we are generally accepted as most likely innocents and I currently believe Firefoot to be innocent and we may as well take advantage of this to the benefit of the other innocents. By saving our votes till the end we can monitor todays voting for wolfish behavior and hopefully stop and back door shenanigans from happening. And if it's close I would rather Firefoot or I be the tie breaker and not others.

Formendacil · 10-22-2005, 04:16 PM

Once again for me, Master Boromir? Well, there is naught that I can do but shake my head...

For myself, I do not know with a certainty if I can be on ere the end of the day, so I will vote. Fea was at the top of my suspicions list, and so...

++Feanor of the Peredhil

Encaitare · 10-22-2005, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B88

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

That statement really didn't help clear your name from my suspicion list. I don't think I'll vote for you, Boromir, because I have nothing to base it on other than these "known innocent" bits you keep reiterating.

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's posts have bumped the latter up on my list a bit as well, although Firefoot's of Esty has done the same, so perhaps it's just the focus on one person that makes it all the more incriminating.

I'm of a like mind with TGWBS toDay. Lhuna hasn't made any contributions, which leaves us in the dark for her, which gives me an uneasy feeling. I may vote for her, or for Formendacil. This will be done in approximately 0.5 hours.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-22-2005, 06:03 PM

Though I've currently got little extra to add, I think it best to keep up while I can, and comment on that which intrigues or bothers me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boro

So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf?

I don't tell people that I'm bluffing! I might tell people that I'm a wolf, but I don't tell that I'm bluffing. If I want mass confusion, I let people rip each other apart. I don't want mass confusion, so I'm being vocal in what I hope is a helpful way, though sadly not as vocal as usual. Perhaps university has matured me? I doubt it, but you never know. It just seems like I'm not seeing anything that causes me to attack the ones I think are guilty. Usually there's a clue, you know? This time it's a tough game to call. Generally there are a few experienced players that you can call bluffs on based on past performances, and there are newbies that you can pick apart because they make errors when they're bad and are obvious when they aren't. This game? Even the inexperienced players have at least seen some of the gaming, or know of it, and they are highly intelligent. They play the role well of "I'm not always sure what's going on." but I tend to really want to call them on bluff. Even the very first village we were made aware of, we all played more exhuberantly than they display signs of. You just can't tell if they are honestly a little behind the times or if they just want us to think it. That makes me nervous and gives me the knee-jerk reaction "let's kill the newbies and then if that doesn't work, at least we'll be dissecting the motives of those whose capabilities we've got a grasp on."

That statement relates to my feelings on Esty and Underhillo. I'm less convinced of her guilt than ever after having read her blog where she comments that she's innocent, but I also wouldn't put it past her to do that as a sort of a back up in case somebody decided to click the mysterious link in her sig one bored Saturday afternoon. So I really don't know about those two. But of them, I lean a lot toward Esty's innocence and Underhill's guilt. I don't like it at all that so many people have suspected him. Like I said.. .with at least seven people convinced that he's acting wolfy, it shows that it's not just being fingered by wolves for a bandwagoning. Or maybe it does... I'm leaning more toward "Enough people think or have thought that he is far less than purely innocent, it might just be worth the lynch."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boromir

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

I don't like this at all. Having a Seer dream of you doesn't make you the least bit innocent. It just means that the Seer hasn't openly declared his/herself yet and said "Fea was right the first time, Boro's a wolf." I wonder if this is a trick to make the Seer step forward and say something that accidentally gives up his or her identity. This would be disastrous if the Seer hasn't yet dreamt of both wolves. With no Ranger, the Seer would be entirely without protection. For shame, Boro, you should know better than to bait the good guys. For all our bad luck, it could actually work.

Encaitare · 10-22-2005, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B88

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

I had not noticed that before! Boromir, you are digging yourself in deeper and deeper with these statements. No one knows you're innocent. You could be a wolf and the Seer hasn't yet stepped forward about it. I said I wasn't going to vote for you before, but here goes nothing. Maybe I'll die like you said (threatened?) I would, but I'll take that risk.

++ BOROMIR 88

Formendacil · 10-22-2005, 01:48 PM

I'll try and make a responce to Mormegil's well-thought out, but somewhat misguided accusation post against me... We start with the Day 1 posts:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Remember, this was Day 1. No one could be proven innocent based on voting records or reasons for lynching people because none were as yet known. With Post 61, I was hesitant to push for a lynching myself because pushing for a lynching always is a very wolfish thing to do- and as an innocent, I wanted as many villagers left alive as possible. In my last village, I didn't give enough thought to the consquences of killing my fellow villagers, and so the Werewolves won and I was on the table for supper.

As regards 73, my idea of mass-abstention was just that: an idea. Obviously, once someone started voting, it was entirely out of the question, but the idea occurred to me at that point that it might be interesting if the entire village didn't vote. After all, what could the phantom have done to a whole village of us?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

By now someone had already voted, I believe, so my mass-abstention idea was no longer viable. As for Anguirel and LMP, I was "thinking" out loud as to who to vote for. As already mentioned, there was no evidence as to who the Wolves were, and being smart, they weren't going to go and show themselves. So a random reason was as good as any other, and the best random reason I could come up with was LMP's "personal" life.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Make what you will of it. Innocents and Werewolves lynched by us villagers are the victims of our votes as surely as Eomer and LMP were the Werewolves victims.

As for the "deeply insulted" bit, I've explained that before, and harping on about that isn't going to make it any clearer than it already is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Of course it was my first long post of the game! Master Mormegil, surely you remember my style from the LAST village we died in? My style is to have one major post per day, listing all current players, and saying what I'm feeling about them. This was rather impossible on Day 1, when there was nothing to go by. On Day 2, there are things to go by, but there is no established pattern, and I am usually hesitant to condemn anyone without being 100% positive about it- a lesson learned from the "Wilwarin and Azaelia Situations" in my last villager.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

Not much to say here, since there aren't really any accusations to defend myself from. Thank you for explaining why I seem so suspicious, as you said at the end:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mormegil

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.

10-22-2005, 01:38 PM	#4
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I'm trying to find a pattern in all of this, but I can't seem to cut my list of suspects down definitively yet. As I explained earlier, Enca and Fea are on it, Formy and Lhuna too, and most others are uncertain to innocent in my eyes right now. I'm debating whether to sleep on my ideas in hopes of waking up bright and early with the solution, or whether to stay up long enough to make a decision this evening... __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...'

10-22-2005, 01:52 PM	#6
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I'm still undecided and going off to sleep over my thoughts. I shall set my alarm to wake me early so as to vote before the deadline. That means two things: 1 - I will not be posting during the next hours. 2 - I will be voting late for a change. I hope no one will try to interpret that to my disadvantage. G'night! __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...'

10-22-2005, 03:00 PM	#8
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	What if... What if Esty was a wolf? Hitherto I have given her little notice, largely passing her off as innocent. But maybe not...? Her lack of concrete suspicions could easily be passed off as a werewolf newcomer's general uncertainty in trying to figure out her place. She has started to give some stronger opinions, but that could be a cautious wolf figuring out where it would be safe to cast suspicion. IF she were, I think her cohort would have to be Fea. Her primary vein of suspicion has been the people who voted for Ang on Day 1 - Encai, Mr. Underhill, and Lhuna. Also, she tried to take suspicion off herself for having voted for Shelob two days in a row by placing focus on Formendacil and Boromir. It could also be Morm, I suppose, but I'm fairly convinced of his innocence. Esty has said that Fea is unpredictable and mentions her as slightly suspicious. Fea has been fairly convinced of Esty's innocence, though she would "put little past her." Fea could very well unpredictably be trying some subtlety... Now this basically negates every theory I've so far put out there, so I'm by no means saying it's correct. But certainly something to think about.

10-22-2005, 03:07 PM	#9
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Firefoot I hear you and think it is worth looking into. As I believe you to be innocent I trust your analysis so I ask you to do a full investigation of her please. I feel like I did a decent one of Formendacil. I'm still trying to get a grip on three others I deem suspicious. Namely Feanor Encaitare TGWBS so if you would complete this I would be most grateful. Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her. Edit: the one downside about accusing Esty right now is that she won't be able to defend herself but if she is a wolf who cares. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-22-2005, 03:52 PM	#11
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	Fea, so you want to know why I changed my views on you, hey? Well, I think you are probably one of the most likely person here to try to attempt a bluff, but I just think you are being set up. Taking last voting day into account it seemed high suspicions of you were growing (myself included, and I believe lmp was quite suspicious of you too), a perfect set up for the wolves. They have an easy target to go after (you) the next day if one of the people that you suspected was killed. Also if they kill the person you voted for. So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf? I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me. I feel confident today that the one's with a lot of pressure on them today atleast one is a wolf (Formendacil, Lhuna, or Enca). So, again...I'm going to vote for... ++Formendacil If Form's a wolf, this makes me still perfect, and hopefully you numbskulls will finally see that I'm innocent. __________________ Fenris Penguin

10-22-2005, 12:35 PM	#2
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

10-22-2005, 01:08 PM	#3
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best. Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt. Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around. Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on. More later...

10-22-2005, 01:43 PM	#5
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	I'm bored of waiting. ++Lhunardawen

10-22-2005, 02:56 PM	#7
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Okay, finally caught up reading, at least. No time for a completely substantive post, but I'll put in a few thoughts at least: Fea: I don't flat-out accuse anyone of guilt because I'm not sure of their guilt. I'm more suspicious of people who make definitive statements -- he's guilty, she's a "known innocent". Only the seer and the wolves are in a position to make such accusations, as far as I can see. Having said that, I'm leaning away from you as a prime suspect, based on your and others' posts today. Still have my eye on you, but less convinced than I was when I cast my vote yesterday. Formendacil has risen high on my list. Has voted for me twice and I know I'm innocent. I was willing to write it off earlier as misguided voting, but Form's still after me, despite having other more suspicious candidates. Either he's a wolf trying to keep suspicion of me high or is a seriously misguided villager. More than this, though, is morm's post 236, which lays out a pretty damning case against Form -- especially that "victim" slip. Nice catch. Some compelling points have been made about Lhuna, though I can't get a read on her. On my suspicious list, but I don't know if I have enough evidence to cast a vote her way yet. Esty's been flying under the radar. She's managed to avoid controversy for the most part, but if she's as confused as I am as a first time player, I'm not surprised that she'd be trying to play it safe. I still feel pretty good about her. Can't figure out tgwbs -- his analysis posts seem helpful and straightforward, but not incredibly insightful. Haven't seen anything yet to make me think "wolf", but not sure of him either. Right now I'm leaning towards Enca or Form as my top suspects.

10-22-2005, 04:15 PM	#12
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I am going to make my intentions know that I will be waiting to vote until near the end and I would like Firefoot to do the same. The reason is because we are generally accepted as most likely innocents and I currently believe Firefoot to be innocent and we may as well take advantage of this to the benefit of the other innocents. By saving our votes till the end we can monitor todays voting for wolfish behavior and hopefully stop and back door shenanigans from happening. And if it's close I would rather Firefoot or I be the tie breaker and not others. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-22-2005, 04:16 PM	#13
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,328	Once again for me, Master Boromir? Well, there is naught that I can do but shake my head... For myself, I do not know with a certainty if I can be on ere the end of the day, so I will vote. Fea was at the top of my suspicions list, and so... ++Feanor of the Peredhil __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.