TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Firefoot · 10-22-2005, 12:35 PM

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-22-2005, 01:08 PM

Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best.

Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt.

Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around.

Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on.

More later...

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-22-2005, 01:38 PM

I'm trying to find a pattern in all of this, but I can't seem to cut my list of suspects down definitively yet. As I explained earlier, Enca and Fea are on it, Formy and Lhuna too, and most others are uncertain to innocent in my eyes right now. I'm debating whether to sleep on my ideas in hopes of waking up bright and early with the solution, or whether to stay up long enough to make a decision this evening...

the guy who be short · 10-22-2005, 01:43 PM

I'm bored of waiting.

++Lhunardawen

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-22-2005, 01:52 PM

I'm still undecided and going off to sleep over my thoughts. I shall set my alarm to wake me early so as to vote before the deadline. That means two things: 1 - I will not be posting during the next hours. 2 - I will be voting late for a change. I hope no one will try to interpret that to my disadvantage. G'night!

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-22-2005, 02:56 PM

Okay, finally caught up reading, at least. No time for a completely substantive post, but I'll put in a few thoughts at least:

Fea: I don't flat-out accuse anyone of guilt because I'm not sure of their guilt. I'm more suspicious of people who make definitive statements -- he's guilty, she's a "known innocent". Only the seer and the wolves are in a position to make such accusations, as far as I can see. Having said that, I'm leaning away from you as a prime suspect, based on your and others' posts today. Still have my eye on you, but less convinced than I was when I cast my vote yesterday.

Formendacil has risen high on my list. Has voted for me twice and I know I'm innocent. I was willing to write it off earlier as misguided voting, but Form's still after me, despite having other more suspicious candidates. Either he's a wolf trying to keep suspicion of me high or is a seriously misguided villager. More than this, though, is morm's post 236, which lays out a pretty damning case against Form -- especially that "victim" slip. Nice catch.

Some compelling points have been made about Lhuna, though I can't get a read on her. On my suspicious list, but I don't know if I have enough evidence to cast a vote her way yet.

Esty's been flying under the radar. She's managed to avoid controversy for the most part, but if she's as confused as I am as a first time player, I'm not surprised that she'd be trying to play it safe. I still feel pretty good about her.

Can't figure out tgwbs -- his analysis posts seem helpful and straightforward, but not incredibly insightful. Haven't seen anything yet to make me think "wolf", but not sure of him either.

Right now I'm leaning towards Enca or Form as my top suspects.

Firefoot · 10-22-2005, 03:00 PM

What if Esty was a wolf? Hitherto I have given her little notice, largely passing her off as innocent. But maybe not...?

Her lack of concrete suspicions could easily be passed off as a werewolf newcomer's general uncertainty in trying to figure out her place. She has started to give some stronger opinions, but that could be a cautious wolf figuring out where it would be safe to cast suspicion.

IF she were, I think her cohort would have to be Fea. Her primary vein of suspicion has been the people who voted for Ang on Day 1 - Encai, Mr. Underhill, and Lhuna. Also, she tried to take suspicion off herself for having voted for Shelob two days in a row by placing focus on Formendacil and Boromir. It could also be Morm, I suppose, but I'm fairly convinced of his innocence.

Esty has said that Fea is unpredictable and mentions her as slightly suspicious. Fea has been fairly convinced of Esty's innocence, though she would "put little past her." Fea could very well unpredictably be trying some subtlety...

Now this basically negates every theory I've so far put out there, so I'm by no means saying it's correct. But certainly something to think about.

mormegil · 10-22-2005, 03:07 PM

Firefoot I hear you and think it is worth looking into. As I believe you to be innocent I trust your analysis so I ask you to do a full investigation of her please. I feel like I did a decent one of Formendacil. I'm still trying to get a grip on three others I deem suspicious. Namely

Feanor
Encaitare
TGWBS

so if you would complete this I would be most grateful.

Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her.

Edit: the one downside about accusing Esty right now is that she won't be able to defend herself but if she is a wolf who cares.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-22-2005, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her.

Would you prefer I was a sincere innocent that sat in front of a computer for HOURS on one of my only days off, pouring through the thread for clues, weird statements, and every speck of "important" information I could find, or would you prefer me being a bloody lying lycan?

Just thought I'd ask.

Boromir88 · 10-22-2005, 03:52 PM

Fea, so you want to know why I changed my views on you, hey?

Well, I think you are probably one of the most likely person here to try to attempt a bluff, but I just think you are being set up.

Taking last voting day into account it seemed high suspicions of you were growing (myself included, and I believe lmp was quite suspicious of you too), a perfect set up for the wolves. They have an easy target to go after (you) the next day if one of the people that you suspected was killed. Also if they kill the person you voted for.

So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf?

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me. I feel confident today that the one's with a lot of pressure on them today atleast one is a wolf (Formendacil, Lhuna, or Enca). So, again...I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

If Form's a wolf, this makes me still perfect, and hopefully you numbskulls will finally see that I'm innocent.

mormegil · 10-22-2005, 04:15 PM

I am going to make my intentions know that I will be waiting to vote until near the end and I would like Firefoot to do the same. The reason is because we are generally accepted as most likely innocents and I currently believe Firefoot to be innocent and we may as well take advantage of this to the benefit of the other innocents. By saving our votes till the end we can monitor todays voting for wolfish behavior and hopefully stop and back door shenanigans from happening. And if it's close I would rather Firefoot or I be the tie breaker and not others.

Formendacil · 10-22-2005, 04:16 PM

Once again for me, Master Boromir? Well, there is naught that I can do but shake my head...

For myself, I do not know with a certainty if I can be on ere the end of the day, so I will vote. Fea was at the top of my suspicions list, and so...

++Feanor of the Peredhil

Encaitare · 10-22-2005, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B88

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

That statement really didn't help clear your name from my suspicion list. I don't think I'll vote for you, Boromir, because I have nothing to base it on other than these "known innocent" bits you keep reiterating.

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's posts have bumped the latter up on my list a bit as well, although Firefoot's of Esty has done the same, so perhaps it's just the focus on one person that makes it all the more incriminating.

I'm of a like mind with TGWBS toDay. Lhuna hasn't made any contributions, which leaves us in the dark for her, which gives me an uneasy feeling. I may vote for her, or for Formendacil. This will be done in approximately 0.5 hours.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-22-2005, 06:03 PM

Though I've currently got little extra to add, I think it best to keep up while I can, and comment on that which intrigues or bothers me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boro

So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf?

I don't tell people that I'm bluffing! I might tell people that I'm a wolf, but I don't tell that I'm bluffing. If I want mass confusion, I let people rip each other apart. I don't want mass confusion, so I'm being vocal in what I hope is a helpful way, though sadly not as vocal as usual. Perhaps university has matured me? I doubt it, but you never know. It just seems like I'm not seeing anything that causes me to attack the ones I think are guilty. Usually there's a clue, you know? This time it's a tough game to call. Generally there are a few experienced players that you can call bluffs on based on past performances, and there are newbies that you can pick apart because they make errors when they're bad and are obvious when they aren't. This game? Even the inexperienced players have at least seen some of the gaming, or know of it, and they are highly intelligent. They play the role well of "I'm not always sure what's going on." but I tend to really want to call them on bluff. Even the very first village we were made aware of, we all played more exhuberantly than they display signs of. You just can't tell if they are honestly a little behind the times or if they just want us to think it. That makes me nervous and gives me the knee-jerk reaction "let's kill the newbies and then if that doesn't work, at least we'll be dissecting the motives of those whose capabilities we've got a grasp on."

That statement relates to my feelings on Esty and Underhillo. I'm less convinced of her guilt than ever after having read her blog where she comments that she's innocent, but I also wouldn't put it past her to do that as a sort of a back up in case somebody decided to click the mysterious link in her sig one bored Saturday afternoon. So I really don't know about those two. But of them, I lean a lot toward Esty's innocence and Underhill's guilt. I don't like it at all that so many people have suspected him. Like I said.. .with at least seven people convinced that he's acting wolfy, it shows that it's not just being fingered by wolves for a bandwagoning. Or maybe it does... I'm leaning more toward "Enough people think or have thought that he is far less than purely innocent, it might just be worth the lynch."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boromir

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

I don't like this at all. Having a Seer dream of you doesn't make you the least bit innocent. It just means that the Seer hasn't openly declared his/herself yet and said "Fea was right the first time, Boro's a wolf." I wonder if this is a trick to make the Seer step forward and say something that accidentally gives up his or her identity. This would be disastrous if the Seer hasn't yet dreamt of both wolves. With no Ranger, the Seer would be entirely without protection. For shame, Boro, you should know better than to bait the good guys. For all our bad luck, it could actually work.

Encaitare · 10-22-2005, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B88

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

I had not noticed that before! Boromir, you are digging yourself in deeper and deeper with these statements. No one knows you're innocent. You could be a wolf and the Seer hasn't yet stepped forward about it. I said I wasn't going to vote for you before, but here goes nothing. Maybe I'll die like you said (threatened?) I would, but I'll take that risk.

++ BOROMIR 88

Firefoot · 10-22-2005, 07:41 PM

This will likely be my last real analysis before I vote, though I may come in with a few comments. I'll be voting probably in about an hour and a half.

Boromir - I don't know what to think of him, other than that he's acting like an idiot. If he's a wolf, he's almost too suspicious to be true. If he's an innocent, then he's digging his own grave and taking the focus away from the real wolves.

Encai - She's on my suspect list, though I don't think I'll be voting for her today. I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow, though, probably post by post as has been done with Esty and Formen. I haven't seen anything that would strongly suggest her guilt, though closer analysis might show something.

Esty - Despite my lengthy accusation/analysis of her, I'm not convinced of her guilt at all. I'm currently leaning towards innocence, though I do have concerns about her which I have already stated.

Fea - What's to be said? She makes me nervous, but I do feel like she was set up. I'm not so sure that there isn't something in the Fea/Encai theory. But overall, I'd say Fea's probably innocent - at any rate, she won't be receiving my vote today.

Formendacil - I think he's likely to be a wolf - he could get my vote tonight. I've already stated my opinions of him, though, so I'm not going to go into anything lengthy here. My opinion really hasn't changed.

Lhuna - She's another one who could get my vote. There just isn't enough to go off of for her, her posts have been vague, containing no concrete accusations. She could be a wolf, but we'd have nothing with which to accuse her because she doesn't post often. I know she lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way.

Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now.

Mormegil - I'm about 98% confident of his innocence. I have no reason to suspect him, as his arguments and suspects have made sense to me, even when viewed from a critical eye.

TGWBS - I'm having a really hard time getting a grasp on him - he's very slippery. He's another one I think a post-by-post analysis might be very useful for.

I don't think there's anything new here - it's more like a summary of my position setting up my vote, hence my lack of supporting details.

10-22-2005, 01:38 PM	#3
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I'm trying to find a pattern in all of this, but I can't seem to cut my list of suspects down definitively yet. As I explained earlier, Enca and Fea are on it, Formy and Lhuna too, and most others are uncertain to innocent in my eyes right now. I'm debating whether to sleep on my ideas in hopes of waking up bright and early with the solution, or whether to stay up long enough to make a decision this evening... __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...'

10-22-2005, 01:52 PM	#5
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I'm still undecided and going off to sleep over my thoughts. I shall set my alarm to wake me early so as to vote before the deadline. That means two things: 1 - I will not be posting during the next hours. 2 - I will be voting late for a change. I hope no one will try to interpret that to my disadvantage. G'night! __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...'

10-22-2005, 03:00 PM	#7
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	What if... What if Esty was a wolf? Hitherto I have given her little notice, largely passing her off as innocent. But maybe not...? Her lack of concrete suspicions could easily be passed off as a werewolf newcomer's general uncertainty in trying to figure out her place. She has started to give some stronger opinions, but that could be a cautious wolf figuring out where it would be safe to cast suspicion. IF she were, I think her cohort would have to be Fea. Her primary vein of suspicion has been the people who voted for Ang on Day 1 - Encai, Mr. Underhill, and Lhuna. Also, she tried to take suspicion off herself for having voted for Shelob two days in a row by placing focus on Formendacil and Boromir. It could also be Morm, I suppose, but I'm fairly convinced of his innocence. Esty has said that Fea is unpredictable and mentions her as slightly suspicious. Fea has been fairly convinced of Esty's innocence, though she would "put little past her." Fea could very well unpredictably be trying some subtlety... Now this basically negates every theory I've so far put out there, so I'm by no means saying it's correct. But certainly something to think about.

10-22-2005, 03:07 PM	#8
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Firefoot I hear you and think it is worth looking into. As I believe you to be innocent I trust your analysis so I ask you to do a full investigation of her please. I feel like I did a decent one of Formendacil. I'm still trying to get a grip on three others I deem suspicious. Namely Feanor Encaitare TGWBS so if you would complete this I would be most grateful. Let me say in brief that I don't know if I'm 100% sold on Fea's latest post it sounds sincere which is rather odd for her. Edit: the one downside about accusing Esty right now is that she won't be able to defend herself but if she is a wolf who cares. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-22-2005, 03:52 PM	#10
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	Fea, so you want to know why I changed my views on you, hey? Well, I think you are probably one of the most likely person here to try to attempt a bluff, but I just think you are being set up. Taking last voting day into account it seemed high suspicions of you were growing (myself included, and I believe lmp was quite suspicious of you too), a perfect set up for the wolves. They have an easy target to go after (you) the next day if one of the people that you suspected was killed. Also if they kill the person you voted for. So, either you're pulling a bold bluff (which I think you are capable of attempting), or the wolves thought they'd have an easy target to go after if they set you up. As of right now I'm thinking it's more of the latter, unless of course you are telling me that you are bluffing and are a wolf? I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me. I feel confident today that the one's with a lot of pressure on them today atleast one is a wolf (Formendacil, Lhuna, or Enca). So, again...I'm going to vote for... ++Formendacil If Form's a wolf, this makes me still perfect, and hopefully you numbskulls will finally see that I'm innocent. __________________ Fenris Penguin

10-22-2005, 12:35 PM	#1
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

10-22-2005, 01:08 PM	#2
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best. Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt. Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around. Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on. More later...

10-22-2005, 01:43 PM	#4
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	I'm bored of waiting. ++Lhunardawen

10-22-2005, 02:56 PM	#6
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Okay, finally caught up reading, at least. No time for a completely substantive post, but I'll put in a few thoughts at least: Fea: I don't flat-out accuse anyone of guilt because I'm not sure of their guilt. I'm more suspicious of people who make definitive statements -- he's guilty, she's a "known innocent". Only the seer and the wolves are in a position to make such accusations, as far as I can see. Having said that, I'm leaning away from you as a prime suspect, based on your and others' posts today. Still have my eye on you, but less convinced than I was when I cast my vote yesterday. Formendacil has risen high on my list. Has voted for me twice and I know I'm innocent. I was willing to write it off earlier as misguided voting, but Form's still after me, despite having other more suspicious candidates. Either he's a wolf trying to keep suspicion of me high or is a seriously misguided villager. More than this, though, is morm's post 236, which lays out a pretty damning case against Form -- especially that "victim" slip. Nice catch. Some compelling points have been made about Lhuna, though I can't get a read on her. On my suspicious list, but I don't know if I have enough evidence to cast a vote her way yet. Esty's been flying under the radar. She's managed to avoid controversy for the most part, but if she's as confused as I am as a first time player, I'm not surprised that she'd be trying to play it safe. I still feel pretty good about her. Can't figure out tgwbs -- his analysis posts seem helpful and straightforward, but not incredibly insightful. Haven't seen anything yet to make me think "wolf", but not sure of him either. Right now I'm leaning towards Enca or Form as my top suspects.

10-22-2005, 04:15 PM	#11
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I am going to make my intentions know that I will be waiting to vote until near the end and I would like Firefoot to do the same. The reason is because we are generally accepted as most likely innocents and I currently believe Firefoot to be innocent and we may as well take advantage of this to the benefit of the other innocents. By saving our votes till the end we can monitor todays voting for wolfish behavior and hopefully stop and back door shenanigans from happening. And if it's close I would rather Firefoot or I be the tie breaker and not others. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-22-2005, 04:16 PM	#12
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,328	Once again for me, Master Boromir? Well, there is naught that I can do but shake my head... For myself, I do not know with a certainty if I can be on ere the end of the day, so I will vote. Fea was at the top of my suspicions list, and so... ++Feanor of the Peredhil __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.

10-22-2005, 07:41 PM	#16
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	This will likely be my last real analysis before I vote, though I may come in with a few comments. I'll be voting probably in about an hour and a half. Boromir - I don't know what to think of him, other than that he's acting like an idiot. If he's a wolf, he's almost too suspicious to be true. If he's an innocent, then he's digging his own grave and taking the focus away from the real wolves. Encai - She's on my suspect list, though I don't think I'll be voting for her today. I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow, though, probably post by post as has been done with Esty and Formen. I haven't seen anything that would strongly suggest her guilt, though closer analysis might show something. Esty - Despite my lengthy accusation/analysis of her, I'm not convinced of her guilt at all. I'm currently leaning towards innocence, though I do have concerns about her which I have already stated. Fea - What's to be said? She makes me nervous, but I do feel like she was set up. I'm not so sure that there isn't something in the Fea/Encai theory. But overall, I'd say Fea's probably innocent - at any rate, she won't be receiving my vote today. Formendacil - I think he's likely to be a wolf - he could get my vote tonight. I've already stated my opinions of him, though, so I'm not going to go into anything lengthy here. My opinion really hasn't changed. Lhuna - She's another one who could get my vote. There just isn't enough to go off of for her, her posts have been vague, containing no concrete accusations. She could be a wolf, but we'd have nothing with which to accuse her because she doesn't post often. I know she lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way. Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now. Mormegil - I'm about 98% confident of his innocence. I have no reason to suspect him, as his arguments and suspects have made sense to me, even when viewed from a critical eye. TGWBS - I'm having a really hard time getting a grasp on him - he's very slippery. He's another one I think a post-by-post analysis might be very useful for. I don't think there's anything new here - it's more like a summary of my position setting up my vote, hence my lack of supporting details.