TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

Hmm again. This series of post strikes me as a little suspicious, with all their "mistakes" -- thinking Cailin hadn't posted when she had, then "not noticing" that Lhuna hadn't posted. I'm not too thrilled with the vote based on silence either. Several players that I now trust as innocents spoke out against this thinking at the time.

The mistakes were due to the fact that I had much lore to investigate on the first day (ie College) which prevented my closely scrutinizing every post.

Votes based on silence are just another aspect of Werewolf infected villages that people disagree on a lot. I happen to believe that if somebody is going to be absent for prolonged periods of time, it gives nothing to work on in the future; thus, I aim to eliminate quiet people on the first Day.

#149 - tgwbs makes some analysis, including some definitive statements about several innocents. Time has proven him right on two out of three of those, and I trust morm, the last one on the list. What makes me nervous is how certain tg is so early in the game. Insight and a bit of recklessness, or wolfish knowledge showing?

It was obvious from their voting. Almost everybody else, excluding Fea, reached exactly the same conclusions.

#173 - Shorty gives all the reasons why he thinks he should vote for me, then votes for Shelob instead -- to keep a villager who was drawing a lot of suspicion alive? Hard to say.

Anybody who actually reads that post will notice that I was extremely unsure about who to vote for. I do not list points for lynching Mr U, then vote Shelob - the entire post shows my uncertainty concerning which one to vote for.

#206 - Emphasizes that he predicted lmp's death. He says this as if it should make us trust him more, but how is this to his credit? He could easily have foreseen the death of our Ranger because he helped orchestrate it.

The point was not "to my credit." It was to make people trust morm and Firefoot.

Either startingly bad analysis or a double-bluff in item 1. What's up with "Sauce" in item 2? Another "mistake"?

Startlingly bad for the former. And Boro actually did accuse Sauce to start off with. He got a little confused. Nice of you to bring that up though, it gives me faith in Boro again.

he abruptly declares, "I'm bored of waiting" and casts vote for Lhuna with no explanation in the vote post and not much more in previous "analysis" posts.

My posts show suspicion of Lhuna from Day 2, and she was high on my list for quite a while.

Finally, in response to Weredwarvery etc, may I not have my little jokes without falling under suspicion these days?

++TGWBS

I want to be lynched with Encai, as I have stated. If Boro and Fea vote for me, I'd appreciate that (I never thought I'd say that...) Esty and Mr U can vote for Enca. Incase Enca returns and does something malicious, I'd like morm to stick around until the end.

If Enca is not a wolf, on Day Two, please lynch: Feanor, Mr Underhill. Esty should be the one keeping her vote til the end, as I trust her most out of all of you, minus morm, who would die in the Night.

[Mister Underhill]

Ai, living in a village with crazy villagers doesn't help root out the wolves. Shorty, if you know you're innocent, why vote for yourself and ask to be lynched? Why not push for the two strongest werewolf candidates?

Either this vote is as crazy and unhelpful as Anguirel offering his neck for the noose on Day One, or you're a desperate wolf trying to throw the rest of us off your scent by self-voting.

Despite my analysis of tgwbs, I was still leaning towards Enca and Fea as the most likely wolf candidates. Now I don't know what to think.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't do that!!!!!!!!! Don't waste a perfectly good vote on someone who's not high on the suspected list! If the double lynching is to make any kind of sense, we need to vote for the top two on our list, all of us!

[Boromir88]

tgwbs is noble indeed sacrificing himself. I wonder if it be an attempt to get us to say "oh he must not be guilty" and follow behind me in wanting to sacrifice myself when really he is a wolf bluffing? But, I doubt it, so close to the wolves defeat, I don't think a wolf would want to bluff his way out and be suicidal.

Whether I'm another "candidate" up for lynching or not, I still oppose a double-lynching, many things can go wrong.

The cursed villager has been brought up, and if we end up lynching two innocents and not a wolf, of course we may have caught the cursed, but we might not have. In which the wolf stumbles upon luck and catches the cursed villager at Night, then it's over. Though this is highly unlikely, I'm sure its possible still if the Cursed happens to still be around.

[the guy who be short]

The cursed is most likely dead already.

I voted for myself because I thought I was a little higher on people's lists... In any case, I'd bet my left beard there's a wolf in the Enca-Fea-Mr U trio proposed. So it will all work out well in the end anyway, even if Enca isn't a wolf today.

Simple.

[Boromir88]

Mr. Underhill, the way I see it is either...

1) tgwbs is bluffing

or

2) Like me, realizes he may be a distraction to the village and is sacrificing himself to the village.

With that being said here's all that could go wrong if there's a double-lynching.

1) Both candidates are innocent bringing us downn 4-1, during the night. Then the wolf gets his/her kill.

1 a) The Wolf's kill, by luck picks the Cursed (if he/she still so be around) and the Villagers lose.

1 b) The wolf kills an ordinary bringing score down 3-1 and giving you one day to catch the lone wolf. Another problem with this is I don't see how you can tell anything from the voting if there is a double lynching, making it even harder to find the wolf.

If there is no double lynching, and we don't get a wolf the score is 5-1 going into the night. 4-1, or 3-2 (if the wolf luckily catches the cursed), giving an extra day for the villagers. Also, if we just vote the way we have been, you can tell a lot more from the votes that way then by everyone agreeing on a double-lynching.

The cursed is most likely dead already.~tgwbs

That's probably true, but you can't pass it of as a "known."

[mormegil]

Yes Boromir I've considered those odds myself but think out of 5 villagers assuming Mr. U's and my innocence we pick 2 that's a 40% chance of a lynching a wolf. It's a risk but doubles our chances. It may be worth taking a risk at this stage.

The problem also is that tomorrow I most likely will be dead and therefore the only other innocent isn't 100% known but it's nice to have one known innocent at least. Oh how I wish we could do a mass lynching right now.

[the guy who be short]

Votes schmotes. Votes can be interpreted any way you like. The important thing is that we have a small pool of suspicious villagers, and we're gonna kill them off.

My death should sort of prove Boro's innocence, as we're both in similar boats: distractions, but innocent.

Other than Boro and I, Enca and Fea seem most suspicious. They die. Throw in one Mr Underhill for good measure, voila, villagers win.

The only thing that could go wrong is the cursed villager. The chance of that is negligable.

And we don't need that extra day if we kill 2 people per day. It helps us, if anything.

Today: 2/7 chance of getting wolf
Tomorrow: 1/2 chance.

By the old rules of one lynching per day:
Today: 1/7
Tomorrow: 1/5
Two days time: 1/3

In short, I cannot be bothered to represent the maths, but we have a 54% chance of winning - randomly - if we go by the old method of one lynching per day. If we do two, this jumps to 64%.

Q.E.D.

EDIT: That's with completely random lynchings. We know more or less who we suspect as a whole, so our chances should be higher than that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

TGWBS, bad. *slaps hand* We're trying to orchestrate the lynching of wolves, not good guys, and yet you waste your vote on yourself while still insisting that you're innocent? What a horrible way to win!

I know that my typical behavior of voting before I go to bed (right near the end of the Day) will seem sketchy today, and I've not yet decided whether or not I wish to continue it. Though I know that I'd be an innocent trying to ensure that the plan goes through (heck, I'll vote for myself if it's decided by the group that I should be part of the double lynching), but I know that I'm a top suspect, and I'd like to avoid trouble in voting.

Originally Posted by Underhill

No, not follow the crowd. But surely it seems like sound innocent strategy to work to (1) identify the Seer and follow his/her lead, and (2) being unsure of the Seer's identity, attempt to find the most innocent villagers and work with them.

Being some sort of solo-rogue-individualist villager doesn't help anyone but the wolves -- if you're a wolf, it helps sow confusion and doubt; if you're innocent, it draws suspicion on yourself and only hinders the search for the true wolves.

As I first thought that 'Mer was the Seer, then transferred it to B88 for a time, I don't at all trust in my own intuition in this village. Firefoot never crossed my mind as Seer, except a short bit of speculation that was never extended upon. Identifying the Seer and working with her just wasn't an option here, and finding the most innocent villager means going with what I know to be true.

Right now, believing that Footie dreamt of Esty and okays her, I am perfectly fine following her lead. I also believe that morm is okay to listen to, so I'll listen to him. I also know for absolute certain that I'm not lupine, so I know that all of my choices, mistake or not, are uncorrupted. It's more than I can definately say for my trust in anyone else. To me, the most innocent villager is myself.

Now I'm off to analyze Esty, though it won't be terribly in depth, as I've got so much work to do. But I'll work off of Firefoot's prior analyses, which we know to be uncorrupted, and add my own input to it.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Analysis of Underhill’s posts

Day 1:

First post – introductory, with character Ghân-undé-Ghân. Questions morm’s idea of voting.

Second post – questions Boro’s abrasive tone and Anguirel’s offering himself up. Assumes that wolves won’t be the quiet ones. Posits his own and Esty’s innocence.

Third post – votes for Anguirel because he offered himself up, mentions busyness as reason for limited posting and newbieness for uncertainty.


Day 2:

First post – mourns Ang’s death and the fact that he is suspected because of his vote. Asks innocents not to offer themselves in future. Points out that Cailín’s death cannot be credited to any of us except the hunter, thus making votes for her irrelevant. Analyzes the point of time for people’s votes. Pleads inexperience; top suspect is Fea.

Second post – tries unsuccessfully to find evidence about Cailín in posts 41 to 51

Third post – emphasizes inexperience and lack of knowledge of players’ styles. Questions Lhuna’s reasons for voting for him.

Fourth post – wonders whether voting late is advantage or disadvantage. Suspects Fea. Questions suspicion of Shelob.

Fifth post – explains computer problems as reason for less involvement on previous day. Understand reasons for Shelob votes; does not think Form is wolf; votes for Fea, though he says a vote for Shelob could save himself. Hopes that will prove his innocence.


Day 3:

First post – agrees with morm that Fea is probably not guilty. Suspects Enca more. Tries to understand wolves’ reason for killing LMP.

Second post – less convinced of Fea’s guilt. Increased suspicion of Form based on his voting for Underhill twice. Enca and Form are top suspects.

Third post – writes about lagging behind in experience and tactics. Votes for Formendacil, based on his voting pattern. Good thoughts on wolvish reasoning. Could also have voted for Enca.

Fourth post – would have voted for Enca had he known of the tie possibility.


Day 4:

First post – List of voting order. Gives convincing thoughts on Formy’s voting. Suspicion of tgwbs increases, which would exonerate Boromir. His voting early possible wolvish strategy? Tends to believe Boro’s story of playing seer to get suspicion away from morm. Agrees with my comments on involvement and wolvishness, which means he hardly suspects me. Fea and Enca top suspects. Speaks up for the double-lynching strategy.

Second post – analysis of tgwbs. Brings up some valid points which make him more suspicious.

Third post – agrees to morm’s chain analysis idea.

Fourth post – remarks to Fea on individualism.


I have done my best to look at Underhill’s posts objectively, though he and I have been in a parallel situation as newcomers to this game and have not suspected each other seriously. I know he is a talented writer who could probably make his devious posts sound genuine if he wanted to, but they seem sincere to me, especially when he describes his feelings of inexperience and bewilderment. He has gathered momentum as the game proceeded and has contributed good thoughts to the discussion. I don’t agree with him on his conclusions concerning Boromir and Fea, but I can see absolutely nothing in his posting or voting that looks wolvish to me. I know his dependability enough to make me think that he would attempt to do his “duty” more if he had the “responsibility” of being a wolf. He has not attempted to influence others noticeably, which I would also consider wolvish behaviour.

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, trying to run the math on this. Six villagers and one wolf left.

Case 1 - Double-lynching:

If we double-lynch tonight, we have a 2 in 7 chance of catching the wolf, or about a 29% chance. If we assume mine and morm's innocence, that takes us to a 2 in 5 chance -- 40%, as he's already said.

If we miss the wolf, however, we'll be down to 4 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, either we've got 3 villagers and 1 wolf, or 3 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 25% chance in the former case and a disastrous state of affairs in the second -- only a 2 in 5 chance of catching a wolf and even if successful, one wolf still alive to wreak havoc.


Case 2 - Single-lynching:

If we do a single lynching tonight, that gives us a 1 in 7 chance of catching a wolf, or a 14% chance. Again assuming mine and morm's innocence, it's actually a 1 in 5 chance, or 20%.

If we miss the wolf, we'll be down to 5 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, we'll have either 4 villagers and 1 wolf, or 4 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 20% chance of catching a wolf in the former case, and only a slightly less disastrous state of affairs than in the double-lynch scenario -- only a 1 in 3 chance of catching a wolf on Day 5, but with an extra villager around to help string things out.

All told, it looks like tonight is as good a time as any to take our shot on a double-lynching, since we have nearly an even chance of catching a wolf. Assuming I'm right about morm, that is. I don't expect anyone to take it on faith that we're innocent. If you factor that out, we have a 29% chance of catching a wolf with a double-lynching, versus a 14% chance with a single-lynching -- with the possibility of a cursed villager in the mix looming.

For my own part, I'm confident in morm (though my review is still pending), I know I'm innocent, and I'll even go out on a limb and say Esty looks pretty clean to me. That raises the odds even more from my point of view to an even 50% chance of catching the wolf out. I don't think the odds will be so favorable again, and I'm willing to roll the dice on a double-lynching.

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

EDIT: Cross-posting, so some of this is redundant.

[Mister Underhill]

Originally Posted by Fea

As I first thought that 'Mer was the Seer, then transferred it to B88 for a time, I don't at all trust in my own intuition in this village.

If what you say is true, you didn't follow the lead of any of your Seer candidates in voting, though you had the chance to. What gives?

Edit: Looking at it again, maybe I misread you there. By " 'Mer " did you mean Eomer? In which case you did follow his lead on Day One. But does the Seer get a dream before the first day starts?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

Well, since there's only one wolf tonight, we do have a good chance. Unfortunately, tgwbs' early vote for himself could mess up some possibilities, if the wolf also votes against the double lynching. The most difficult part will be to agree on the two to lynch. I doubt that we will manage to get the six that are left to vote three each for two people, so we will need to gather two votes each for two suspects or two votes each for three suspects. Either way, the double lynch works. The second possibility risks the wolf slipping through the net in the middle. So we should vote for the most suspicious people first and last.

Thanks for doing the complicated math, Undé!