Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[tar-ancalime]

It seems to me that to implement lmp's plan would simply be to codify what happens spontaneously whenever there is a bandwagon. One person (or sometimes two) starts the accusations, others agree, and before you know it the votes are in and we've followed a de facto leader.

Afterwards, what do we do? We analyze the actions of the original accuser to try to discern motives, inside knowledge, etc.; then we do the same for the followers and in some cases for the non-followers. I really don't see a difference between this process and what lmp is proposing, except for one: Under lmp's plan we'd be absolutely conscious of what we're doing at every step.

It just doesn't seem to matter that much whether we implement this plan or not. lmp, please correct me if I'm missing some important point (it wouldn't be the first time).

And Celuien, I am shocked at the report you give me of the peformance of those knives. Shocked. Did you leave them out in a dewy morning as I instructed? Did you bathe them in raw egg (an absolutely necessary step)?

Of course you did. You are the most careful of craftsmen. It's just that, with all the hundreds of knives I have sold, I've never had another bad report. Well, I am flummoxed. But to show my good faith and to try to make amends, I am willing to refund you a full ONE-FOURTH of the price you paid. I'm sure this will more than make up for any inconvenience.

[Glirdan]

I have to vote now and my vote shall be

++Eonwe

As I said, this vote is mostly random yet he still didn't quite defend himself against my accusation. I hope I'm wrong and that no one follows me in this vote, unless something else pops up about him.

Kitanna, I'm sorry if I confused you on my suspicions on Lmp and Eonwe.

Lmp is because of the fact that he proposed this plan. Could he be innocent and trying to help? Or could he be a Wolf masquerading as an innocent that's trying to help?

Eonwe is because he backed up Lmp's idea so this could be a misguided innocent OR a Wolf agreeing with a fellow Wolf's plan OR a Wolf agreeing with an innocent's plan which would almost insure a Wolves vistory.

Once again, this vote for Eonwe is mostly randomness because I have to vote so early. So don't take this vote to seriously.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

And Celuien, I am shocked at the report you give me of the peformance of those knives. Shocked. Did you leave them out in a dewy morning as I instructed? Did you bathe them in raw egg (an absolutely necessary step)?

Of course you did. You are the most careful of craftsmen. It's just that, with all the hundreds of knives I have sold, I've never had another bad report. Well, I am flummoxed. But to show my good faith and to try to make amends, I am willing to refund you a full ONE-FOURTH of the price you paid. I'm sure this will more than make up for any inconvenience.

Well, should we meet again as innocents in happier times, perhaps we shall discuss your offer.

Back to business...

Adding another problem with LMP's plan. It's already been pointed out that the leader becomes the automatic target for the wolves. Automatic targets are bad because they don't leave a trail for discussion of why the wolves picked said villager. Rather than being able to debate if the villager was on to something and eaten for that reason or chosen as a safe bet, the conversation becomes "So-and-so was our leader. The wolves ate the leader" End of story. So I have to add my name to the list of those who oppose the plan.

Glirdan's vote swings seem odd. But because of his reasoned response to lmp's plan, I'll willing to presume him an innocent for now, with the caveat that he probably bears watching. Bergil has also been acting strangely, but he did preface the early vote wth a warning, so that doesn't give me anything on go on. Another one to keep my eye on.

Which leaves this list:
Presumed innocent (mostly my same list from before - nothing happened to change my mind on them)
Anguirel
Menel
Lalaith
Me- of course I don't suspect myself. As far as I'm concerned, calm under fire is the only way to keep from going out of my head in this nightmare era.
Firefoot
lmp - disagree with his plan, but the fact that he offered one speak well for him.
Eonwe
Kath - I'm not really inclined to put defensiveness down to wolvishness unless combined with other signs since innocents have reason to defend themselves too.
Kuru - another seeming voice of reason
Wilwa - no reason to suspect her from her post.
Kitanna - gives reasonable enough analysis.

Bear watching (only mild suspicions of anyone here):
Glirdan
Bergil
for reasons given above
WaynetheGoblin - just because I don't have anything to draw conclusions about him from yet.
tar-ancalime - just because I'm not really sure what to make of her. Gives a good response to lmp, but there's just an odd feeling about her. Nothin concrete.

Hmm, that doesn't really get me anywhere. Of the watch list, I'm most likely to suspect Glirdan for the sudden opinion changes, though this is only a MILD suspicion. I'm far from ready to vote for anyone yet.

Have to run and get myself ready to go to the shop...

[Kath]

Well I'm back again and as promised a quick look at Bergil and Glirdan since they have voted and have voted early.

Bergil:
All we have from him is a joke at the beginning, though still one putting Glirdan in the suspect seat. Then, after no other posts we get a vote for wilwa, with the reasoning of:

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.

Is he saying that she already had her reasoning written out? I can't really work that out.

Glirdan:
Actually there's quite a lot of substance in his posts. Well thought out arguments and a good answer to LMP's leader plan.

Hmm, ok then for now I shall think of Glirdan as innocent even with his early vote as of course that is due to time differences. SO, he voted for Eonwe, a look at her will come next - damn school!

[WaynetheGoblin]

Glirdens vote is odd bringing him up to the second space on my list of people i think are wolves.

1. bergil

2. glirden

3. nowone else that i can see.
++bergil

[wilwarin538]

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.

Actually they did. I got half way through and had to take a phone call.

The fact that you used that reasoning to vote for me is very strange. First of all cause it doesn't make any sense. I don't get why me taking 33 minutes to type something would be suspicious.

I would have rathered you vote for me out of randomness then to leave an excuse like that.

Just wanted to clear that up, I really must part. I'll be back for the entire hour before voting is closed. Right now the only one I can see to vote for would be Bergil, just cause his reasoning makes little to no sense.

EDIT: just saw Wayne's vote. He suspects Bergil and Glirdan for their strange votes, and then votes for one strangely? hmmmmmmm

[Firefoot]

I wish I had more time to go through all this with a fine-tooth comb, but I don't. And I'm also not sure how much time I will have later; I want to see how close I will be cutting it before trying it out today.

So at this point, LMP and Kitanna feel innocent to me. I thought that Bergil's reasoning for voting for Wilwa were strange, though I can't tell anything about Wilwa herself. Glirdan's not sitting quite right with me. I'd like to hear more from Wayne; he seems more like a passive spectator who votes than anything else. Kuru feels very analytical, as usual; probably leaning innocent. I want to hear more of substance from tar-ancalime. I could go either way with Menel and Celuien, though also probably innocent at this point. Eonwe feels mildly suspicious, and Lalaith is definitely not sitting right.

I may have missed a few, but I'm running out of time. Hopefully I'll be able to come back and let you know why. For now:

++LALAITH

It really is mostly just a feeling. I hate voting early.

[Anguirel]

Two things to offer-a jest and my probable vote...

Originally Posted by Celuien

Bear watching (only mild suspicions of anyone here):

Didn't know we were hunting for a bear as well!

And now...the course I'm planning to take:

As far as I'm concerned, nothing anyone says today is a justifiable basis for voting for them at this stage. Unfermented wine, if you like. We should examine it in the light of knowledge we get later, but now it's no help at all.

On the one hand, naturally, this makes it rather tricky to decide who to vote for without picking at random.

But there is this silver lining. For want of any better guide, we can feel free to vote for whoever we feel is irritating and unhelpful, safe in the knowledge that at least they are no less likely to be a wolf than anyone else. And the most irritating and unhelpful contribution I'm seen so far by many leagues is Wayne the Goblin's cobbled together backing for his vote.

I shall therefore feel no remorse at all in voting for Wayne in a few hours, even if he is innocent, even if he's gifted, actually. He provides no style, no substance, no analysis, and no wit, and on this day where we lack any reasonable evidence, he royally deserves to swing for it.

[Kuruharan]

This is another annoying thing about DAY ONEs. People end up voting on the basis of personality, which isn't any guide to hidden agendas.

I'm actually less inclined (at the moment) to suspect people who vote early because I don't think a wolf would do that, unless under duress. I think a wolf would be more inclined to stick around and mess with the voting at the end.

[Kitanna]

In the next couple of hours I will have to cast my vote and I have no much to go on.

Bergil keeps popping up on people's suspects lists. But I don't think I can vote for him today. His vote for Wilwa raises questions, but so does Wayne's vote for Bergil. I find both suspicious, not because of when they voted, but how they voted. But DAY 1 randomness will lead to it I suppose. I will of course watch them, but most likely not vote for them today.

As for Glirdan, who I named earlier, I still hold suspicions, but in his own suspicions he was quick to change his mind from post to post and I'm not entirely sure a wolf would do that.

So later I will go through everything again and see what I can find. Hopefully I can find something better and use it to vote.

[Anguirel]

When I vote for Wayne, rest assured it will not be anything to do with his personality. I'm sure he's a charming and delightful chap, but at the moment he's being about as much use in terms of his comments as a common garden slug.

[Kath]

Finally I have enough time to make a proper post!

Well now looking at Eonwe I don't really understand why Glirdan voted for her. She mostly comments in answer to other people, and twice about the problem of day 1 being slow.

There is this comment:

well, as they just had 24 hours to pm about stratgy, either they are very lazy, or the answer is no.

In response to Lalaith possibly setting out a wolvish plan. It's quite jokey but I suppose it could be taken as a defence.

Then there is this:

we could pick an innocent to lead us, which would yeild two resolts:

1) lynching of a wolf. that wold be good and our leader would be praised.
2) lynchin of an innocent. that would be bad, not only because we killed an innocent, but because we now cast suspicion on yet annother innocent. not to mention we wouldn't get anything as way of a trail.

or we could pick a wolf to lead us, also yeilding two results:

1) the wolf chooses to lynch a wolf. that is good and bad. we kill a wolf, but clear a wolf as well.
2) he lynches an innocent. good because we would suspet him.

all in all, i think it could be a worthy plan. but we should use it later on. and don't ellect me as leader, either.

In response to LMP's plan. This seems to me a fair analysis of the paths such a plan could take and she came up with the same final opinion as me, using it later. And I do believe she posted that long before me so the similarity can't make me think her guilty either.

She then has to repeat all these points because someone questions her about it, either Glirdan or LMP I haven't quite been able to work out which. In fact she repeats it almost exactly word for word without any protestations of unfair treatment or loud claims of innocence, which makes me feel that she is innocent.

So overall I really do not understand Glirdan's vote for her unless it was completely random as he said - twice. And the repetition there made me pause.

Eonwe is because he backed up Lmp's idea so this could be a misguided innocent OR a Wolf agreeing with a fellow Wolf's plan OR a Wolf agreeing with an innocent's plan which would almost insure a Wolves vistory.

Was the reasoning but Eonwe explained that she wasn't backing up this plan and having seen her posts I disagree that she was in full support.

Still, I don't know if Glirdan's (in my opinion) unsusbstantiated vote should then cast suspicion on him. So, let's have a look at everyone else.

Anguirel - Some extremely bad jokes at the beginning but I suppose we can't lynch just for that! Then an almost threat, which I am inclined to take as an in-character comment though it did make me think a bit. Then, finally, he gets more serious and gives reasons why LMP's plan to elect a leader would be unhelpful,which I agree with. Names his suspects with reasons and explains why he is either more or less suspicious of various people, which will help for future reference. Seems to be casting doubt on the strangely widefelt perception that LMP is an innocent, which I think is a good idea. Then suspects me, Menel, Firefoot, Glirdan and Celuien - again with reasons and a sort of decision that Celuien is the one he is most worried about. Then, after all these lists and suggestions, he decides to (probably) vote for Wayne based on his unhelpfulness so far - a good point. Definitely an odd one that bears watching.

Bergil - Did him earlier. Couldn't find anything to be suspicious of or to think him innocent because he has barely posted - irritating but not suspicious.

Celuien - Begins with seemingly no knowledge about anyone and just provides a quick list of what everyone has said. Opposes LMP's plan with reasoning. Makes lists of who she does and doesn't suspect, but there is no reasoning behind why she has picked some of the ones she sees as innocent which I would like. And really that's about it. She has posted quite often but only the two or three most recent ones have contained anything of use.

Eonwe - Already did. Could find nothing suspicious - but am now fearing she is in fact a he.

Firefoot - Requests that those who talk make substantial posts not just chat in order to catch out the wolves. Completely disagrees with LMP's plan, finding no use in it at all. Appears to be in a rush and I think that's real because it's rare for her not to make lists and put real reasons and evidence behind her words. Though she has been strangely uninvolved I will give that the benefit of the doubt until she can explain.

Hmm, I'll have to wait to do the others. Must go learn.

[tar-ancalime]

I see that the village has been busy in my absence. I do apologize; but a girl's got to make a living.

Here are my thoughts thus far:

I've divided this list into "benefit of the doubt" and "baseless uneasiness" as opposed to "innocent" and "guilty" because, well, what do we really know toDAY?

Benefit of the doubt:

lmp has quite adeptly controlled the conversation all DAY, both in content and in sheer number of posts. Is he a truly helpful innocent, appointing himself as our leader in the absence of an election? Or is he a wolf, cleverly steering the discussion from the very beginning? Either way, he's not getting my vote toDAY--he did get us talking, and if he is a wolf he won't be able to hide in plain sight like that for long.

Firefoot, Glirdan, Kitanna, Kuruharan, Eonwe, Celuien, Kath, and Meneltarmacil have made thoughtful and original posts that have given me pause and helped me think through this DAY. None of them will get my vote.

Baseless uneasiness:

Anguirel's flippant posts are amusing and in character, but I would like to hear more of substance from him. He has named a lot of names toDAY and invoked Orome more than once, but there's something in his posts that feels wrong to me. Despite Kath's assertion that he gives reasons for his suspicions, I think he's simply casting his net as wide as he can toDAY.

Bergil and Wayne have been very reticent, and both voted early. I'll reserve a strong opinion on that for a DAY or two, until we start to see how everyone's schedules shake out. In the future I want to see more substantive posts from both of them, though.

I'd like to hear more from Lalaith and wilwarin; however, since neither has voted, I suspect their contributions will resume after I go to bed (very soon).

As it's getting rather late in this longitude, I've got to cast my (mostly random) vote now.

++ANGUIREL

In the end, his net of suspicion is cast just a little too wide. I've got an unsubstantiated, first-DAY feeling that he's trying to divert our attention from something.