Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

LMP's approach contradicts the dead loremaster's advice so heavily that it's really worth making a comparison...

Let me remind you, my dear foolish jester, that there are three werewolves, not one. Have you no other suspects? The sheer ferocity and vituperitiveness of your attack, Anguirel, must be accounted for in my mind. Why would an innocent Ang do this? Because he thinks he's found a werewolf? Because he feels insulted? Because he's getting so deep into the chaos of his jester character that he's forgetting to think clearly? Or, why would a werewolf Ang do this? It would seem to be a dangerous thing for a werewolf to do, unless he's afraid that I'm on to things, and therefore is making a huge effort to make me look suspicious, hoping that I'll get lynched so he doesn't have to kill me toNight? That seems an unwise strategy, but then maybe again our jester is that deep into his character? Or, is he being this feral now, and will lay off later, conveniently pointing his lycanthroping finger in a new direction? We will have to wait and see.

His first statement might as well read "I don't hold with planmongery, whether it wears well or no." With that I wholeheartedly agree. Spontaneity achieves what rigidity cannot imagine.

Different approaches.

His second statement amounts to an unformed but healthy suspicion of LMP's verbosity.

As I recall, Kuru laid it out both ways as I have just done regarding you above. Keep your facts straight, my fool. Oh, and what I'm excited about is playing this game. I love it!

Yet it seems to me that Our Lord High Undertaker And Presiding Superintendent In Charge Of Timezones Who Drops Hints About Being A Seer In His Spare Time is now advocating-wait for it-an inflexible plan based on democratic and so suspect means, that involves narrowing the candidates for lynching to an arbitrarily selected trio.

Thou dost play a most drippingly sarcastic fool, my feral friend. Well done!

I'm only a jester, for all you know at any rate, but it seems mighty peculiar to me. A vote for LMP seems rather more than a shot in the dark, though it may amount to the same thing...oops, I'm going "eerie" again.

Simply put, you're wrong. And the werewolves love it .... unless you're one of them. Remember, there are three werewolves, not one. I hope sleep brings some more sensibleness your way, my good fool.

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa is looking pretty suspicious, being the 2nd voter for the innocent Bergil.

I voiced my suspicion, and my plan to vote vote for Bergil, at the same time Wayne voted for him. I didn't know until after my post had shown up that Wayne had voted.

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

I'm extremely sorry for being a part of Bergil's death, but at the time it seemed like a good choice.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

Thanks for pointing that out, Wilwa. I'll take it into my considerations.

[Kath]

Is it because he hit close to the mark on some accusations and the Wolves thought he might guess at them and reveal them?

Well, let's have a look at who he accused.

littlemanpoet is developing some strange habits

Don't know whether to count this really as it was in his first post. But maybe he saw something early on.

I must note that littlemanpoet has been talking...a lot. This is not necessarily bad. In fact, it might be good. On the other hand, it might indicate he is unduly excited about...something.

Then again perhaps against LMP.

And that was actually all we had from him. So LMP - would you like to refute the words of the dead?

[Anguirel]

LMP, all this heavily dropped "lynch me and you'll regret it" nonsense implicates you still further. A Seer does not monopolise the village. A Seer does not not take obvious control of events until he has accrued a lot of information and it's worth the risk.

Simply put, Seers should be neither heard nor seen. You've accomplished both. If you are the Seer, your life expectancy is already no longer than a mayfly's. Any wolves worth their whiskers will have picked up on your heavy, but dreadfully premature, hints by now. That's why I'm speaking honestly. I genuinely think that if you're the Seer, (and I see that as unlikely, because I thought you were supposed to be cunning and skilful) your mileage is run.

But if you're a wolf, you're hoping to pacify a village that's starting to turn on you. Well done. Many villagers seem to think you beyond consideration already. I take that as a sign of your guilt in itself. Where wise men make assumptions and jump to false conclusions, there it is the fool's task to point out their mistakes. Trusting you automatically purely because you're saying enough words to drown us all in is one.

I think that you're also hoping to draw out the real Seer. Our real soothsayer will be wise to that, I'm sure.

If you are not a wolf, LMP, you will die tonight. You're a dead investment. A sunk equity. A safe vote.

You keep trying to put yourself in the clear by babbling about how there are three wolves, not one. I am aware of that. I also know enough of you to know that you will be the ringleader, the organiser, the captain and commander; and I will not allow you to bluster your way out of the net.

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing. Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

[Lalaith]

I think it is best to assume we are dealing with clever wolves. At this stage in the game, clever wolves will be going all out to kill the person they think might be the Seer. That is obvious. Therefore, the belief, voiced by myself, tar-a and Anguirel, that the wolves thought Kuru might be the Seer, is actually an obvious statement.
(Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.)

So what else do wolves do? Firstly, unlike the rest of us, they know exactly who is innocent. So one way to spot a wolf is by looking for people who seem to be theorising and searching as frantically as the rest of us for clues, but who then don't seem to follow through - whose conclusions seem either unreasonable or sloppy. This is why I was giving LMP a hard time yesterday and this morning, his insistence on people following his plan in accordance with his own timezone seemed unreasonable and therefore wolvish.

Another thing wolves do is to work out a strategy at night to avoid any of their number being lynched. (Of course, there are exceptions to this, when one of their number is the object of general suspicion and the others need to distance themselves.) The best way for wolves to protect each other is by starting a bandwagon against an innocent they think is likely to be an acceptable suspect to the rest of the villagers. This is where people like Wayne come in very handy for wolves, which is why I was quite reluctant to vote for him yesterday. It is also why I feel very suspicious of wilwa's abrupt attack on me this morning - an early start of a bandwagon, I wondered - although I know she has time constraints which could explain her hastiness.

Now, someone is inevitably going to come along and say "oh look how much Lalaith knows about wolves, how suspicious". But that sort of comment would be silly and disingenuous - without wanting to break spawn's rules, we are all veterans here.

As for the points discussed so far today.
I like a lot of tar-a says, although it doesn't necessarily absolve her in my eyes. If Ang and LMP were both wolves, (lord help us!) this sort of bickering is very likely how they would play it.
It is strange and ironic that Glirdan, who was my chief suspect yesterday, votes for me today.

I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max

Wilwa, my dear, getting me lynched will be definitely be your second mistake.

[littlemanpoet]

I've slept on things in a hole I dug
and almost drowned because it rained.
Those holes really are quite snug,
just need to figure how to get them drained.

There are some people who are playing too sloppy to be werewolves. Werewolves would take more care with what they say because they have more invested. The sloppy people betray their innocence, so to speak, by not caring what people think of what they say. On these grounds, I don't think Lalaith is a werewolf. The same reasoning seems to implicate Anguirel's innocence. This does happen to go for me too, but I'll leave that to othe judgement of the rest of you.

There are a few people who seem to be taking great care as to their choice of words. These are Wilwa & tar ancalime. One of these two will probably get my vote, but that's not a guarantee; just in case someone wants to later accuse me (should I survive the Day or Night) of not being consistent.

Whereas Eonwe & Kitanna cast the most suspicious votes yesterDay, as I reckon it, they don't seem particularly feral, especially not Kitanna.

I was tempted to suggest that we lynch Lalaith tonight on the strength of how many people suspect her, as well as on the fact that she was the swing vote. My rationale was that if she turned out to be a werewolf, it would be easy to spot whom she had been trying to protect, and that if she didn't turn out to be one, then we're no worse off than we might be lynching someone else, as long as she's not gifted. But I really doubt that she's a werewolf.

And Lalaith & Anguirel, I'm not writing this to allay your suspicions of me. Suspect away! I'm just putting forth my thinking, in hopes of helping us all to a good decision toDay.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.

Fair enough. I'll let that pass, then. For what it's worth, on reconsideration, I find you far less suspicious. The Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin combination suggested is interesting, one which I'll need to give more thought before voting today.

Current votes:
Lalaith (Glirdan)
Wilwa (Kitanna)
Menel (Firefoot)

To be continued in a while...