Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, there are a few people who haven't spoken in awhile and it's like they dropped off the face of the earth. I'd really like to hear more from Celuien, tar and Wayne. Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable and Wayne came and said the usual. Please, I'd like to have more input from you Wayne.

Sorry. I just got here. The dull RL reason for my tardiness is that my department got several consults this afternoon that I had to help out with, putting me almost 2 hours behind schedule. But that's not what you really want to hear. So here's the Shamville reason. I was *cough* trying out some new varnish at my shop and lost track of time.

Kuru's death is a puzzle to me. As for the suggestion that he was the Seer, I didn't notice anything yesterday that would have made me think that at all.

I'll review the recent events and return with analysis later...

[tar-ancalime]

Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable

As much as I hate to do it, I fear that I must cry "longitude." Concern has been expressed because I have not yet added my voice to toDAY's discussion. As it happens, I do not live on either side of the Atlantic, nor do I live on the American side of the Pacific. This in particular made me laugh:

But look, there's a whole bunch of us arguing here, but there are some villagers that are kind of slipping under the radar. I need to go to bed now (and no corpses on my dais, Mr funny-business Undertaker) but I'm going to look at this all with a fresh eye tomorrow.

I noted the time of this post: as Lalaith was going to bed it was 6 AM here.

I've now finished reading toDAY's posts and it's just after 7 AM. Glirdan, I hope this assuages your fears.

Because I have missed out on so much discussion and analysis of DAY 1, though, perhaps I can be most helpful by starting to parse what has been said toDAY thus far (as far as Wilwa's post # 134).

It seems that there are varying theories as to why Kuru was the unfortunate victim of those among us with base wolvish impulses:

Did the wolves think he was the Seer? Lalaith thinks so.

I have had to think about this quite a bit. It seems to me that Lalaith may be right about this. At first it seemed illogical--Kuru didn't do anything yesterDAY that would indicate his being a Gifted. But then I realized--Kuru was behaving exactly as a smart Seer would early in the game: present, with smart posts that didn't really point any fingers. I never would have thought of this, being a relative novice in the detection of wolves, but I think Lalaith may have hit on something here.

Now, I recognize that I'm flirting with danger by agreeing with one who has been the object of so much suspicion already toDAY (in post 112 Wilwa already asserts that Lalaith is likely to get her vote; Kath suspects her, as does Glirdan; and she's been in quite a shoving match with lmp). I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Which brings me to Wilwarin. She is the origin, at least toDAY, of the suspicions of Lalaith. She voices them so early and so vehemently as to give me pause. It's the opposite tactic: "never mind manoeuvres, just go straight at 'em." It's this early certainty and nothing else that makes me think Wilwa is worth watching for the rest of the DAY.

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

One more thought I'd like to address to lmp: he is suspicious of my "cool, even chilly" analysis. However, he repeatedly asks Lalaith to listen to what he says, not how he says it. I'd ask for the same courtesy from him.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

So, at long last: I'm suspicious at this point of Lalaith, Wilwa, lmp, and Anguirel. Most suspicious: lmp and Anguirel together. Least suspicious: Lalaith. Unfortunately many of these suspicions are mutually exclusive, as I noted above: if I'm right about X, then I must be wrong about Y. Luckily I have most of a DAY to ruminate before casting a vote.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

As for the others, I'm going to wait and see before posting any opinions.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

Now I'd like to address Wayne again. Lalaith and Wilwa both gave reasons as to their votes for Bergil, you have not. Wilwa and Lalaith have been defending/listing suspects, you have not.

I dont know why the wolves would kill him either it dosent make sense. The only thing he said was about the voting. I will look back at peoples post and say my suspicions soon.

That is all we have for you today. I hope you come back soon and answer some questions. I would like to know why you voted for Bergil, why you found him to be suspicious. You have been asked by several villagers to explain more in your posts, please do so.

Now, in the next few hours there's a good chance I will have to vote. Hopefully I can put it off until I get up in the morning, but that all depends on how much work I get done tonight. So I'm going to reread everything once again and come back in a few hours with my findings and/or a vote.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

As much as I hate to do it, I fear that I must cry "longitude." Concern has been expressed because I have not yet added my voice to toDAY's discussion. As it happens, I do not live on either side of the Atlantic, nor do I live on the American side of the Pacific.

I noted the time of this post: as Lalaith was going to bed it was 6 AM here.

I've now finished reading toDAY's posts and it's just after 7 AM. Glirdan, I hope this assuages your fears.

Because I have missed out on so much discussion and analysis of DAY 1, though, perhaps I can be most helpful by starting to parse what has been said toDAY thus far (as far as Wilwa's post # 134).

It seems that there are varying theories as to why Kuru was the unfortunate victim of those among us with base wolvish impulses:

Did the wolves think he was the Seer? Lalaith thinks so.

I have had to think about this quite a bit. It seems to me that Lalaith may be right about this. At first it seemed illogical--Kuru didn't do anything yesterDAY that would indicate his being a Gifted. But then I realized--Kuru was behaving exactly as a smart Seer would early in the game: present, with smart posts that didn't really point any fingers. I never would have thought of this, being a relative novice in the detection of wolves, but I think Lalaith may have hit on something here.

Now, I recognize that I'm flirting with danger by agreeing with one who has been the object of so much suspicion already toDAY (in post 112 Wilwa already asserts that Lalaith is likely to get her vote; Kath suspects her, as does Glirdan; and she's been in quite a shoving match with lmp). I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Which brings me to Wilwarin. She is the origin, at least toDAY, of the suspicions of Lalaith. She voices them so early and so vehemently as to give me pause. It's the opposite tactic: "never mind manoeuvres, just go straight at 'em." It's this early certainty and nothing else that makes me think Wilwa is worth watching for the rest of the DAY.

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

One more thought I'd like to address to lmp: he is suspicious of my "cool, even chilly" analysis. However, he repeatedly asks Lalaith to listen to what he says, not how he says it. I'd ask for the same courtesy from him.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

So, at long last: I'm suspicious at this point of Lalaith, Wilwa, lmp, and Anguirel. Most suspicious: lmp and Anguirel together. Least suspicious: Lalaith. Unfortunately many of these suspicions are mutually exclusive, as I noted above: if I'm right about X, then I must be wrong about Y. Luckily I have most of a DAY to ruminate before casting a vote.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

As for the others, I'm going to wait and see before posting any opinions.

This has got to be the cleverest bit of wiley coyote analysis I've seen from a werewolf in a long while. It shows the heavily veiled, convoluted thinking of a werewolf. Notice how tar early puts forth Lalaith as suspicious, then retracts her. Very subtle, very tricksy. And tar, for whom I am quickly gaining a most deep respect, your cool analysis and mine are not the same. It's hard to point out to the exact difference, but I think it is this: you are doing too well at thinking the thoughts of the werewolves for them. Whereas I'm trying to imagine what a werewolf might be thinking, you're succeeding. That's extremely suspicious. The very mutual exclusivity of your purported suspicions renders them so confusing that it's impossible to know what to think, which is an additionally handy tool in the hands of a werewolf.

I'm not ready to state my chief suspect list, but you can trust that tar ancalime is on it.

[Eonwe]

hmmmm. LMP i read teh post through and didn't find much of anything. maybe im just naive. tar doens't retract lalaith, as far as i can see. she just says that lalaith is the least suspicious of the three.

as for being confusing, its werewolf, my friend!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

hmmmm. LMP i read teh post through and didn't find much of anything. maybe im just naive. tar doens't retract lalaith, as far as i can see. she just says that lalaith is the least suspicious of the three.

as for being confusing, its werewolf, my friend!

Yes, you do have a point. I think it's if you read the post presuming guilt, or innocence. That's the trouble with werewolves. tar ancalime's rather courteous request for Menel to speak more in defense of himself, actually is serving to lessen my suspicion of her. And yes, that's reading way way deep between the lines, but there are werewolves about, you know.

Time to go dig some graves.

[Glirdan]

Why did you want to vote for Glirdan? Was it random? Do you still find him suspicious?

I'd like to hear the same thing from Menel. There has to be more to it than just what you posted yesterDay.

I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

I'd have to agree completely with Kitanna on this one. Lmp seems least suspicious of the three, yet that doesn't remove him from suspicion. I'm more suspicious of Lalaith than I am of the other two, and even more suspicious of Wayne, yet I might give him the benefit of the doubt for today and vote Lalaith instead. There's not enough information for one to go off to pin anything on Wayne where as with Lalaith, there is enough.

I have to vote in the next hour or so so I'd really like to hear something from Wayne before then.

[Firefoot]

LMP, I do think you might be on to something. tar's post is very cool, almost too smooth, now that I read it again. A brilliant example of taking others' ideas and running with them, expanding, being "helpful." She has now moved up on my suspect list.

So, if tar was a wolf, who else might be wolves? At most one of Lalaith, LMP, Ang, and Wilwa would be a wolf, quite possibly none. Even though she states Lalaith is the least suspicious of those to her, she spends a lot of time in her post going over them. LMP, I am not too concerned about. Possibly Ang or Wilwa, but nothing certain there.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

Knowing my own innocence (I don't expect any of you to trust me on this, of course), I would guess that if tar is a wolf, Kitanna is not. This fits with my earlier statement that Kitanna seemed pretty safe to me (still does, after going through toDay's posts). If there was a wolf among her stated innocents, I think it would be Glirdan, but I'm becoming less suspicious of him as the Day goes on. This is not an in-depth statement, I haven't studied much too closely yet, but a surface-level feeling.

That leaves Wayne, Eonwe, Menel, Kath, and Celuien. Even if tar weren't a wolf, I don't think I'd be surprised if a wolf came off this list, and if she is a wolf, I think one almost certainly would. Kath and Celuien have thus far seemed pretty innocent to me. Wayne, I don't know how anyone could get any kind of reading from him. Eonwe and Menel are both in between very suspicious and the halfway point.

So currently my suspicion list looks something like this:

Tar
Menel
Eonwe
Wayne
Ang
Glirdan
Wilwa

Note: this has been largely off the cuff and unresearched. I still have not gone over Day 2 in depth. I will be doing that before I go to bed, and very likely voting in a similar time-frame as yesterDay.

Cross-posting with a lot of people...

[tar-ancalime]

And tar, for whom I am quickly gaining a most deep respect, your cool analysis and mine are not the same.

Oh,

lmp,

really! While I appreciate the compliment, I fail to see any "cool analysis" from you at all. Our posts have been very different, true, but it's not due to any base motives on my part, I can assure you. The difference is this:

My posts have been the result of ruminations on the comments of others: the "wait and see, then share my thoughts" approach.

Your posts have been deliberately inflammatory. You submit these plans (and I do think you're putting them out solely as objects of discussion: to get us talking about your plans instead of about you,) then wait for the inevitable arguments to ensue. Just toDAY you're giving as good as you got with both Lalaith and Anguirel, merely arguing rather than adding anything new. To tell you the truth, it's this argumentative quality that you've displayed from the start that is at the real root of all my suspicions of you. If you hadn't argued with so many people already, you'd be...maybe not pure as the driven, but much less noteworthy in my eyes.

I utterly regret that in this post I'm doing much the same by rising to your so obviously proffered bait, but there it is. At least you have pushed me out into the open with the root of my suspicions of you, and even caused me to think through them more carefully.

I'll be back later with more analysis, and you can be sure that it will be just as cool, just as reasoned, and just as honest as before. I'm still pondering the lmp, Anguirel, Lalaith triangle, not to mention Wilwa's early certainty, and I don't want to let lmp's obvious disdain for my approach to cloud my judgement.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Your posts have been deliberately inflammatory. You submit these plans (and I do think you're putting them out solely as objects of discussion: to get us talking about your plans instead of about you,) then wait for the inevitable arguments to ensue. Just toDAY you're giving as good as you got with both Lalaith and Anguirel, merely arguing rather than adding anything new. To tell you the truth, it's this argumentative quality that you've displayed from the start that is at the real root of all my suspicions of you. If you hadn't argued with so many people already, you'd be...maybe not pure as the driven, but much less noteworthy in my eyes.

You have cleared yourself in my eyes. Thank you. Moving on to the next suspect....

Edit: Cross posted with Firefoot, and rethinking yet again.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've gone through the Day's posts so far, focusing on the people on my suspicion list. I don't want to get too far in this without giving some of those other people not on my list another look, but there are definitely other things I should be doing now *coughstudyingcough*.

Anguirel – he starts out the Day stating why Kuru was a good choice for the wolves; I agree very much with these statements. He also found LMP very suspicious – not without a fair reason, though I myself do not find LMP particularly suspicious (he could be pulling a blinder on me, I don’t know; he’s one of those people who I tend to trust until they prove otherwise, whereas most people are the other way around. Probably not a good thing, I know). In his next post he continues to support his suspicion of LMP, largely on his opposite approach to Kuru’s. He is becoming less suspicious to me, mostly because he has been very consistent. He is still on my watch list, but really my suspicion list. Unfortunately, I probably won’t be able to study any more posts he might make before I vote due to horrible time constraints as the Day wears on.

Eonwe – He has not been very substantive today at all, and has done nothing to alleviate my suspicion of him. He posts just enough not to be accused of not posting much, but he doesn’t say very much. He’s edging up on my suspicion list.

Glirdan – He thinks a wolf probably voted for Kuru or Bergil – that is, Wayne, Wilwa, and Lalaith. I find this as likely as not – voting was too spread out. He is somewhat random, though there are threads of consistency running through his posts. I think he’s more likely to be a scattered villager at this point, rather than a wolf. Unless something big happens, my vote will not be going to him today.

Menel – He says he was planning on voting for Glirdan yesterday. He’s a little suspicious of LMP. He has posted a total of once today; I definitely want to hear more from him. He has moved from in-between to mildly suspicious, if nothing else because he says little. I haven’t seen anything say that he is innocent, so he’s edging guilty.

tar-ancalime – I’m really not sure about her. Her Day 1 posts don’t make me suspicious, but her Day 2 posts do, especially that one that LMP pointed out. She’s smart, and I wouldn’t put a whole lot past her. She could possibly receive my vote. If she’s innocent, then her reasoning seems entirely sound, but there’s something wrong about the tone. Definite suspicion.

Wayne – Same…

Wilwa – Expressed early on intention to vote for Lalaith – I find this rather hasty, but she has decent reasons for it. She is coming down on my suspicion list; she hasn’t done anything today to raise any flags. I highly doubt I will be voting for her.

In about eight hours I'll be coming back to post briefly and likely vote. My vote will almost definitely come off one of the people I have highlighted as suspicious in this post.

And a plea, for voting: I don't think it will really be starting up for quite some time yet, and it doesn't seem likely to be a spread out as yesterday, but let's not do that again. Voting can be one of the most useful tools, but yesterDay's was no help at all. Let's try to keep voting confined to about four-five suspects, okay? They don't have to be set suspects as LMP was trying to organize earlier, but don't just vote for a random person that doesn't have any votes if there are already several candidates. Half (or more than half) of the citizens of the village should not be getting votes. It makes it entirely too easy for wolves to hide.

[Glirdan]

I'm afraid I have to cast my vote now because I won't get another chance to.

++Lalaith

For reasons stated before. The fact that she has a Jackal/Hyde attitude just doesn't settle with me.

She was the one I was most suspicious of and as I said, I decided to give Wayne the benefit of the doubt. I hope with this vote I don't condemn an innocent to death.

Now I must be off to my grave for some well needed rest.

[Kitanna]

Curse school and the fact it will keep me away for almost all of tomorrow and there shall be no time for a decent post. So it is time for a vote.

I find all this tar talk interesting. I never would have thought twice about her post if lmp had not brought it to light as far too cool and calculating. So clearly she needs a good deal of watching. And I was very swayed by lmp and Firefoot's analysis of her. But I'm not sure I really want to vote for her.

I have suspicions of Wilwa, Lalaith, and Tar all equally now. I'd throw Wayne in there too because of his unhelpful posts as well. So that leaves me with four to vote for.

Wayne is an easy vote and he is an unhelpful character which is a plus to getting rid of him.

Wilwa defended and defended and defended herself when it came to her vote for Bergil, keeps coming back to it to defend herself. I felt her intial defense would have been fitting, but yet she continued to go on with it. Then she goes after Lalaith.

Lalaith seems to have gained suspicion as a Jykle/Hyde of the village. She is also the one who called for the village to talk much. Talking a lot = Confusion and confusion = wolf breeding ground. She is involved in the lmp-Anguriel war.

Tar moved up on my suspect list due to lmp and when he pointed out her post. I'm not sure exactly what to think, but I will defiantly be reading her posts more carefully from now on.

So how to vote? I think...

++ Wilwa

I think perhaps Lalaith and Wilwa may be wolves working together. Don't ask me why...just a gut feeling. Wilwa's suspicions of Lalaith are on her moods and tone in her posts. Well, that is alright, but somehow I feel...well I'm not sure. They just do not seem right. Then her defense of herself, even on day one does not sit right in my mind. Perhaps I'm losing my mind...

So there's my vote. Tomorrow I will take a much harder look at tar and Lalaith, but if Wayne does not provide substance in his posts then I may just go after him out of sheer annoyance.

[Kitanna]

Ok so this is what I found through Kuru's posts. I'm not sure how helpful it is going to be for anyone.

In his first post he mentions Anguriel, Eonwe, and lmp. He says Anguriel is “acting strange” but clearly on the basis of Anguriel’s in character jester role. He mentions Eonwe and says he understands why Eonwe will probably not say much in the way of substance. And he then says lmp is acting strangely, but says nothing else in the post on the subject. Then he goes on to say everyone is just running up the numbers racket and he thinks that is a bad idea.

In his second post he brings up the idea of what would happen if everyone stayed silent.

He says nothing for a while and comes back with a mention to lmp’s post of picking a leader. He says it would have to be done early to work best, but agrees with Menel that it is a bad idea. Then puts emphasis on the fact lmp has been talking a lot.

Next post he says voting randomly based on people’s personalities is no use to the village and that is another bad thing about day one. Then he says he doesn’t suspect people who vote early because a wolf would be more inclined to vote late and try to cause a double-lynching. That is the last time Kuru speaks.

So what can we get from this? Kuru never outright accuses anyone so that is most likely why he was attacked.

[Glirdan]

Why thank you tar for expressing concern towards my fears and assuaging them. You to Celuien.

Now, after your lengthy post tar (which was well thought out by the way ), I'm inclined to believe that you are an innocent. Either that, or a very clever Wolf. The first seems more likely to me. Kitanna and Firefoot have not had any suspicion from me and for the next little while, they won't. We need people like them and Lmp here to help us sort out our thoughts. It would be really stupid of us to lynch them at this point in time.

I'm now a little more suspicious of Wilwa, due to theof the defensivness of her post earlier, but she's not as suspicious as Lalaith or Wayne. So I'll probably end up voting for one of them unless something new arises.

[tar-ancalime]

Menel, I'd like to hear more:

Why did you want to vote for Glirdan? Was it random? Do you still find him suspicious?

Sorry to pester you like this--but if you're going to proffer an intended vote it seems you should be subject to the same kind of scrutiny as the rest of us.

[Celuien]

Synopsis of the remaining villagers, in no particular order:

1. WaynetheGoblin - quite annoying. He has said almost nothing, other than a general "I'm here and I suspect so-and-so." Yesterday, suspected and voted Bergil because of his random vote. Has not returned with his promised suspect list yet. I'm at a loss to determine whether or not he is a wolf. But even if innocent, I'd place him higher on my short list of lynching candidates because of the frustratingly small amount he says.
2. Glirdan - as Firefoot said, all over the place (sorry!). I'm not sure that this makes him a wolf, but it does attract my attention. He returns to my watch list for today.
3. Eonwe - difficult for me to peg (pun intended). Suspects Ang for being vocal. Watching him more because I'm unsure what to think than from any real suspicion.
4. Meneltarmacil - waiting for more input today. Yesterday, he offered good input to lmp's plan, so I'm not particularly inclined to suspect him yet. I'm interesting to hear more about his suspicions of Glirdan.
5. tar-ancalime - so far today, has offered good input. I suspected her yesterday merely on that infallible quality of intuition. Right now, she doesn't look suspicious.
6. Wilwarin538 - I happen to agree with her on several points (see below). Another villager offering decent arguments, so I don't want to attack her now.
7. Kitanna - I do not currently suspect her since she has offered reasonable, helpful analysis. I personally agree with her interpretation of Kuru's death after looking at his posts from yesterday.
8. littlemanpoet - very, very odd. Lead-bottomed hints from yesterday suggesting Seer status could be either 1) a bold Seer coming into the open 2) an innocent attempting to mask the Seer, 3) a wolf masquerading as the Seer, or 4) misinterpretation of figures of speech by villagers which he chose to let go. Option 3 seems a bit too risky for a real wolf since it would bring the Seer's eye directly on him. I doubt lmp-wolf would use that tactic. I'd rather not push the issue too much in case he is the Seer. I will be watching him closely, however.
9. Lalaith - suspicious. Offers the theory that Kuru was the Seer early on, although there really wasn't too much there to suggest that, other than his being non-committal. I really don't think that's enough reason to declare a Seer, since a few of us were also vague yesterday. But it could be a distraction - or the wolves' genuine opinion. At the same time, she was the tiebreaker yesterday, although that doesn't mean quite as much with rules preventing multiple lynchings. Very odd back and forth with lmp this morning that I would like to see explained.
10. Firefoot - probable innocent. Sound analysis of events, seems genuinely heplful.
11. Kath - also a probable innocent, as far as I can tell. Same reasons as Firefoot.
12. Anguirel - suspects lmp greatly. I personally don't find him suspicious now. LMP has been behaving strangely, and I'm inclined to think his attack on lmp is motivated by genuine suspicion rather than a frame up. The vehemence of his attacks is classic Ang, so I don't really want to take it as a sign of guilt. But I will, unfortunately, need take a closer look at him today as a result of all this bickering.

As for lmp's plan for today, it seems to be a reasonable enough way to keep wolves from manipulating the votes. Unless, of course, they wind up strongly influencing the straw vote and manage to use to to keep the focus off of them. The failsafe of using a majority to change the selections seems okay, but could still be easily manipulated. I would prefer to follow the departed Kuru's advice and remain flexible.

[Celuien]

A few other quick thoughts before the review...

I just wanted to briefly answer the concern from yesterDAY about my not saying a whole lot. Truth was, I just wasn't sure of anything and didn't want to risk going overboard and swaying votes to innocents. As I said then, it will nag at me to err.

One more thing before I go. There are other reaons to be somewhat non-committal, at least early. One of which being giftedness. As has been pointed out, a Seer can't really afford to make mistakes, lest they be taken as dreams later after the identity is revealed. And the Ranger/Hunter might also want to play a game of being less vocal. If the Ranger's identity is suspected, defending someone too strongly could be taken as a sign of who would be guarded at night, making the role pointelss. LIkewise, if the Ranger is successful and defended the protected target strongly during the day, his/her identity might be revealed to the wolves - and wolves alone - as a result. A similar argument goes for the Hunter, who might not want the night target accidentally revealed in case the choice is correct and s/he wants the chance to take down a furry beast.

[Eonwe]

hmm anguriel has my suspicions because he seems to be out front allot. think... oh crap, can't do that . his posting has a subtle effect to gain him innocents.

ok lets see. as for voting, there is not much to be gained there right now. later on the voting record will because very important. especially to the seer. use it wisely.

i wouldn't give wilwa too much grief about her bergil kill. someone hads to die, and someone has to kill him. and do you really think a wolf would do something that blattant. why not just let someone else do the job for her?

of course, we could say "the wolf would expect us to think that way, and so will do exactly that!"

where is that doctorate in game theory when you need it, eh?