Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Gurthang]

Eh, I be alright with gettin' rid of old Master Saucepan. I'd enough of his long-winded tales the first day I worked for 'em. That may not be werewolvery, but it drove me to a union, that's for sure. I'll be listenen to those tales, now, I'll promise ye that, just to see if I catch anythin'.

But there ain't near enough talkin' goin' on. So:

++Formendacil

For being a lazy, good-for-nothing desk 'worker'. Puh! How you can work while sittin' on yer butt behind a desk is beyond my knowledge. I know what work is, done it all me life, and that clerk ain't ever done none.

[Boromir88]

It 'as been quiet. I 'ate quiet towns. You jus' aint gonna solve a thing if ya'lls jus' sit 'nd stare at eechother.

Well, we now 'ave a population of fithteen peeple. Six peeple 'ave sed sumthin' so far. So, this means someone whos sed sumthin so far is a wulf, by my own simple logic.

Wayne, just says somethin' about Alcarillo an' makes like a tree and leafs.

The Saucepan over 'ere goes off about sum stories that I aint gonna try to unnerstand. I surspect if he's a wulf, he's trying to distract us frum the real task and thats killin' wulf.

Aiwendil, whines 'bout his own life and cries 'bout how awful our spekkin' is.

Rune fires back against the Panman. Did the Panman 'it the wrong nerve Mista Union, sir?

Wilwarin, just kin' of seems normal if ya's all gonna ask me. I mean, she certainly does whut I surspect an innocent to do. So, I guess jus' fur that I shuld be more carefuwl.

And Gurthang votes. Which, usually I dun find votin' early that suspicious, 'specially on the furst day, when nun of us no what these wulves act like, or whats they try to do.

So, based on my simple logic that a wulf has sed sumthin', and frum whos a sed anything...Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil are my surspects.

[Boromir88]

I mus' of cross-posted with uh...mormegil. But, uh, he's not worryin' me right now. He seems like wilwarin, I'd surspect an innocent to do this, so I surspect he's innocent right now.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I may be naught but a lithesome pearl diver, but even I'm a bit suspicious of the person who would cast the first vote so early in the day! Why, poor Alcarillo's body's still warm and there's Gurthang champing at the bit for more blood already! And he's after one as hasn't even spoken up yet!!

That having been said, it's true that there's precious little to go by on this first day other than paranoia, so in the end I suspect I'll have to cast my vote in pretty much the same way -- with a lot of guesswork and hope. The likelihood of catching a Wolf this day is only 3 in 14 and I don't like those odds.

So it's like the adage says: him as wants to catch a werewolf needs luck or patience....and so since I don't believe in luck....

So how to catch a werewolf? Well, it's mighty tricky and that's for sure as they have that one great advantage as we don't: they know who's human and who isn't. The thing we have to do (and by we I mean us innocents) is to turn that advantage against them. Y'see, when it comes to voting time, everyone casts his or her vote as an individual -- cause, when it comes down to it, the only person you can really know is innocent is yourself. But wolves, y'see, when they vote, they vote as a group. Even if they spread their votes around, they're still going to be spreading those votes around as a group. So the trick here, y'see, is not to focus on individual choices or actions, but on groups of people who seem to be acting more or less alike, or groups of people who are acting different from one another consistently.

So, as I see it, if you try and catch a werewolf, you're doomed. But if you try to catch a group of three werewolves you might just stand a chance.

The first step, then, is to figure out what the groups are in this here village. The second step, is to decide which group it is that's acting the most wolfish and to vote to lynch from within that group. So it's with that in mind that I shall be watching for these kinds of patterns and groupings. So far, early as it is, there's at least one clearly defined group...

The Accusatory:

Sauce
Rune
Boro
Gurthang

...and possibly two...

The Visibly Non-Committal:

Wilwarin
Aiwendil
Wayne

So this is what's I know right now --

The Accusers are drawing a lot of attention to themselves and making a lot of noise, so they are either clumsy innocents or daring wolves.

The VCNs are shadowing the Accusers without going all the way, so they are either nervous innocents or cagey wolves.

In all fairness I suppose I should probably put myself in a group as well...

Self-Appointed Saviours:

Fordim

The SAS is drawing a lot of attention to himself by suggesting a strategy that will only work if lots of people believe it and go along with him, so he is either a daring innocent or an arrogant wolf.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Ach! Cross-posted I did with mormegil whom I see has joined the ranks of...

The Accusatory:

Sauce
Rune
Boro
Gurthang
mormegil

A note to what I said above -- the wolves, if they are smart, will split themselves up between the groups I identify, but that, y'see, ain't no way to hide, since we can spot folk as join in with groups to try and hide -- when it comes down to it, if they're acting as though they're a part of one group, but voting in a way as aligns them with the thinking of other groups...well...that will catch me lithesome eye...

[Aiwendil]

Well, I'll tell you why I'm visibly non-committal - because when I first came around just about everybody else was doing nothing but standing and staring. Didn't have much to go on, you see. But I've got a bit more to go on now.

Fordim suggests that the wolves will endeavour to diversify their approaches. This makes sense to me, though it seems that it'll be difficult in practice to identify such behavior. But building on this idea, it seems likely to me that on the opening day the wolves will split themselves between early posters and late posters. So I'd guess that at least one wolf has posted so far, but also that at least one has not yet posted.

The people who have spoken up are, in order of their first utterance:

WaynetheGoblin
The Saucepan Man
Aiwendil
Rune
Boromir
Wilwarin
Gurthang
Mormegil
Fordim

And those that have not yet said a word:

Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Jack
Kath
Lhunardawen

. . . all of which leaves me nowhere in terms of definite suspicions. So I guess I'll remain visibly non-committal for the moment.

One further thought - I've heard there's a seer in this village to whom the Valar speak at whiles. It seems to me that this seer is our best chance to catch those beasts, and I think we'd do well to think long and hard about how best to make use of his or her ability. Two important points occur to me:

1. It's vital that the seer not be discovered by the wolves. Therefore, the seer ought not to hint at his or her abilities.

2. Once the seer is killed, we will all, naturally, closely analyze everything he or she said. As I see it, the seer's priority should be to make this eventual analysis as clear as possible. My advice to the seer, then, is to be very, very careful in every reference to another person - so that after the seer's death, it will be immediately apparent whether the seer in fact knew that person's identity.

[mormegil]

Aiwendil, you seem to suggest to the seer contradictory statements.

1. Don't leave any hints as to who you are.

2. Make sure you spell out who is innocent and guilty so as to know upon your death.

They seem to contradict in that you tell the seer to remain discrete and essentially silent yet by indicating or leaving confirmable evidence as to the guilt or innocence of the individual. Which, to me, seems would give the werewolves some hints.

Now Fordim I find it rather interesting that after only 7 or 8 people have spoken, most only once, you are ready to begin classifying into groups. It seems overly hasty to me.

[Aiwendil]

Allow me to clarify.

I suggest that the Seer speak in such a way that only once his or her identity is revealed will the information being conveyed be apparent. If the Seer, for example, says that he or she strongly suspects someone, or that so and so is almost certainly innocent, then after the Seer's death those remarks will (inevitably, I think) be taken to mean 'I dreamt about so and so and he is a werewolf' or '. . . and he is innocent'. I think that if the Seer is conscious of this throughout the game, then after the Seer's death we should be able to reconstruct most of the Seer's knowledge - would could be quite valuable. But the Seer would be saying nothing that you wouldn't expect any reasonable, paranoid villager to say.

It's just a thought, from someone with little experience in these matters. Does anyone have a better idea for maximizing the Seer's utility? Or the utility of the other Gifteds, for that matter?

[Gurthang]

But, the wolves know who they be. Nobody else does. If the wolves see a villager name just one suspect, and their suspect happens to be a wolf, then the wolves can very well assume that that person is the Seer.

Warning: A very wolfish looking statement coming up.

My advise to the Seer is this: Dream of Saucepan or Fordim. If either are wolves, I suggest coming out and saying so. They are both too influential to let free if they are wolves. They can be great assets, or our greatest enemy.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

But there ain't near enough talkin' goin' on. So:

++Formendacil

You are most wise to vote thus, Master Gurthang, for I am a wolf.

So is Fordhim. So is SPM. And tonight we will lynch the seer, Lhuna, and the ranger, Rune, will be helpless to do anything.

Believe me? I hope not, but if you're as paranoid and overanalytical as most villagers tend to be in days of crisis like this, then you just might....

Honestly, there is no way of knowing who or what the wolves are in this village, and I'm not even going to bother presenting theories of guilt or innocence. I rather think that Gurthang's early vote for me is suspicious, but that's just because he picked me. If he had picked, Wilwa, say, then I wouldn't be bothered in the slightest.

You want a random vote?

Then I'll make it:

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, just because we know that Ungoliant is/was evil.