Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Kath]

Righty ho back again. So it was Lhuna I wasn't sure of earlier. Now I'm not too keen on Folwren but for that I have a little more reasoning, well not much, just this sentence:

I don't kill animals during the day.

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

Sauce and Fordim are talking far too much for my liking. Why can't they make nice short posts that don't take forever to read! Ah well, they are full of information, though whether it be useful or space filling rubbish is yet to be determined.

And I see we have another vote, making that:
Formendacil (Gurthang)
Lhuna (Wayne)
Wayne (Lhuna)
Aiwendil (spawn)

I don't really suspect anyone at the moment. Folwren I picked up on but it could well be nothing of course.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Kath

Sauce and Fordim are talking far too much for my liking. Why can't they make nice short posts that don't take forever to read!

Hear Hear!!

But I do need to say three quick things:

1) Contrary to what Kath has said, Gurthang has not voted to lynch me...not this Day, leastaways.

2) I don't kill the oysters, I sings to them for a bit and when they open their shells to applaud I swipes the pearls from out of the inside.

3) I have pressing business away from this here place which will make taking part in this discussion impossible after 2:00 pm EST (7:00 GMT) so's I will have to cast my vote early....sadly, as it looks as though there's to be a lot of late discussion which is sure to be interesting.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I really dont have that much to say, no one really stands out as beeing very suspecios. The people I am currently considering voting for is(this can change quickly because of the lack of evidence):

Wayne for his strange vote for Lhuna and because, he is imposibel to get a read on. As others has statet very dangerous to have around. . .

Aiwendil because of the strange seer talk, allthough he did a pretty good job explaining what he meant afterwards.

Gurthang because of his wolfish statement, but I dont think I will be voting for him today.

The Saucepan Man I just dislike

[Aiwendil]

Well, it seems that my suggestions for the Seer have caused a bit of an uproar. I was merely speaking my mind. Of course, it's up to the Seer now and I'll leave it at that. Still, it's interesting to look at the reactions that my suggestion received:

Mormegil: Thinks my idea is contradictory.
Gurthang: Thinks my idea will expose the Seer. Proposes that the Seer dream of Fordim or the SPM.
Dancing Spawn: Says I'm putting words in the Seer's mouth and that this will help the Wolves. Votes against me.
Lhunardawen: Says that I'm asking the Seer to do the impossible.
Saucepan Man: Says that my idea is sensible but difficult to put into action. Does not think it's a trick.

Now I'm a bit dismayed that no one else seems to want to get organized, and I'm a bit wary of anyone who claims that a plan for doing so is a Wolvish trick. If my suggestion were such a trick, then it would be a very poor one indeed! After all, my first piece of advice was:

1. It's vital that the seer not be discovered by the wolves. Therefore, the seer ought not to hint at his or her abilities.

My initial suspicion, then, falls upon Gurthang and Dancing Spawn. This suspicion is strengthened by the fact that Dancing Spawn voted for me on (what seems to me to be) rather shaky logical ground, and Gurthang voted absurdly early, for someone that had not (and still has not) said a word.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post: Add to my list of reactions:

Rune: Is considering voting for me due to 'strange seer talk', but says that I did a pretty good job of clarifying my idea afterwards.

His comment doesn't seem particularly suspicious to me, at the moment.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As I've already said, I must leave now and get on with the job of living (those pearls aren't going to come out of the oysters on their own) so much as it pains me, I will have to cast my vote now even though I desperately desire to see more from everyone before voting.

As I've also said, there's really no grounds for any real suspicion a this point, although Aiwendil with his Seer suggestion has raised some interesting points and made some interesting observations. Of all the summations thus far, his -- I think -- is the most useful:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Mormegil: Thinks my idea is contradictory.
Gurthang: Thinks my idea will expose the Seer. Proposes that the Seer dream of Fordim or the SPM.
Dancing Spawn: Says I'm putting words in the Seer's mouth and that this will help the Wolves. Votes against me.
Lhunardawen: Says that I'm asking the Seer to do the impossible.
Saucepan Man: Says that my idea is sensible but difficult to put into action. Does not think it's a trick.

He goes on, based on this analysis, to name Gurthang and Dancing Spawn as his prime suspects. Interestingly, both of them have expressed suspicion of me....

So, like I say, I have no real way of knowing if either of them are wolves. In fact, I am only 3/14 ths sure that one of them is a wolf, but as I have to vote now, and as Aiwendil has made the most sense so far, I will have to vote for one of them.

Gurthang is far too obvious a choice: if he is a wolf, he's an incredibly silly one, and I haven't seen enough of Gurthy yet to determine if he is that silly....so, that leaves

++DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Cross posted with Rune, Folly, and Formy .

[Folwren]

'Jack', dear. Folly's very feminine. Jack, for now. It's cute, Folly is, but Jack . . . well. . .you know.

-- Jack

[mormegil]

I have remained relatively quiet until now because I wanted to observe some behavior and I think it is time to come forward with my thoughts. While I found Aiwendil's seer statement moderately contradictory, I found it fairly innocent and I made my comments about Aiwendil's guilt as fairly innocuous. Meaning I really didn't suspect him but wanted some point to discuss and I think it has been fruitful so far. Aiwendil does a good job at outlining some of his suspects in relation to this list. I would be more inclined to vote for Gurthang over Spawn; the reason being is that Spawn would be a bit more shrewd if she were a wolf than she was, this is not a proclamation of her innocence but currently I'm not overly concerned with her.

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Jack

I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category.

Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!".

Originally Posted by Kath

Now I'm not too keen on Folwren but for that I have a little more reasoning, well not much, just this sentence:

Quote:
I don't kill animals during the day.

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

Now that seems a bit spurious to me, young lass. What are you suggesting that it implies? A Wolvish hint? Well it seems to me that there bain't no chance of Wolves dropping hints intentionally. So mayhaps you're suggesting it was a slip? Well, if so, it's a slip just as likely to be made by an innocent - moreso given that Wolves are likely to be more careful 'bout what they say. Seizing 'pon such a phrase looks suspicious in itself to me, so my eye is now on you too.

My main suspicions still lie with Master Hedgethistle and young Gurthang, though. The former because he set out a plan which really didn't look much of a plan to me, but more of a statement of the obvious. And at the same time, he looked to be implying sommet nasty 'bout those who made early (mostly random) accusations - mayhaps a way of deflecting suspicion from hisself. Other than that, he has given little away concerning his own thoughts, but instead piggy-backed on Aiwendil's reasoning to cast his vote. Now, while I myself see much sense in what our Scholar has said, I would have expected a little more original thought from someone so highly regarded as Master H.

As for Gurthang, like mormegil, I still see it as possible that he voted early as a means of deflecting suspicion, thinking that people would see it as too dangerous a game for a Wolf to play. The lad hints at this being part of some grand plan. Well, I shall await to see what he has to offer.

With all that's been going on, there's not much business down at the harbour, so I shall bide my time and vote nearer to the deadline.

[Gurthang]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.

Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.

2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.

Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.

3. Gurthang is a wolf.

Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.

4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.

By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.

5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.

The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.

6. Gurthang is the cobbler.

Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.

Any additions or corrections are welcome.

[Boromir88]

Well, I 'ave quite a bit more time before I go back to tendin' my crabs.

Now I think all business owners had some dislike of this tax man of ours and some had more to benefit than others. I mean really how much profit is there in crabbing and pearl diving? That points to Fordim and Boromir although Jack's business has been slow lately and has to benefit by saving on taxes and on increasing our paranoia so that we buy more weapons and armor.~mormegil

I aint gonna try to deny that I's lost my house, cus I culdn't affourd it anymore wid all the taxes. Now, I live on sum cruddy ol' boat on the shore. But, I aint never 'ate Alcarillo, or any tax collectors. The ways I've always seen it wus, every mans gotta right to make 'is own livin'. And it aint Alcarillo's fault that 'es tryin' to make a livin' by takin' money an' workin' for the King. The ways it always been is the rich neva 'ave to pay money, it's always the brokin' backs of the pour that drive empires. I guess, I'm a sayin' I'm proud to be a 'ard workin' man that keeps the wheels a runnin' so to say. But, evry mans gotta make a livin'. And I aint gonna punish no man tryin' to make an 'onest livin'.

Everyone is surspecting Gurthang or Spawn. And they may very well be wulves. But, sumthin' doesn't sit right in me stomach with Holbytlass. It wus jus' this comment:

Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – pearl diver
Lhunardawen – shepherd girl
Jack – furrier/blacksmith
Holbytlass – butcher

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night? Not a very good plan, seeing as I'm on it too, so no doubt there would be other innocents on this list as well, got to start somewhere....

We aint executin' animal killers mi lady. We's a tryin' to execute wulfs. Though, I suppose its likely sumone on that list is a wulf. It jus' doesn't suit with me own logic that you shuld kill sumone based on their professin. We're all tryin' to make a livin'. Without me crabs I'd be on da street sittin' next to Kath. You don't 'ang a man cus you dun like his profession.

Fur that, Holbytlass an' I suppose Gurthang ar' me top two surspects at this point. And I aint gunna foget Rune for 'is snappy comments earlier, but I suppose there's much 'ore suspisius stuff fur me to look at.

Like the Panman, I will wait an' 'old my vote 'til latuh.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

Why thank ye, mormegil! I be honored to find myself so highly thought of, aside from how wretched your claim makes me appear.


From me own analysis above, I will tell ye all that the truth be number 4 and number 5. But, me saying so will not make no difference to those who already think guilty of me. In fact, I'm sure mormegil and Saucepan will use it against me. I don't be saying that's bad though, I'd be doing the same in their shoes.

My vote be already wasted, but I'm keeping an eye on Kath, although that's mostly from what other people have said of her posts. And now her vote, in which I find the reasons and the action not lining up.

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.

Votes so far:

Gurthang (Formedacil-1)
Lhunardawen (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1)
Wayne (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1)
dancing spawn (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
Formendacil (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, dancing spawn-1)
Fordim Hedgethistle(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
mormegil(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1)
Kath (dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1, Fordim-1)



Oh, Kath, dear, it twas Formedacil that claimed himself to be a wolf.

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Kath

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

*sigh* No. I was answering Holbytlass's statement:

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night?

And all I had to say to deflect that argument, I thought, was say that I didn't kill animals by day (therefore it would follow that I didn't kill humans by night). Guess I was wrong on that bit of logic. No. I don't kill anything at night. One would think that after spending all day at the anvil or shoeing horses (that sometime have the audacity to lean entirely on me while trying to fit the shoe), it'd be pretty obvious that all I did was sleep at night.

-- Jack

[Folwren]

Cross posted with a few people. . .

Rune, don't vote for someone just because of personal dislikes. Saucepan Man is an important person here. He thinks more clearly than a few of us. Since we have to vote somebody off today, and since there are really no good reasons to vote anyone off, I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category. True, some of us might suspect them, but at this point in the game, it would be folly indeed to kill any one of these.

In order for the villagers to win, we need the smart people who are talkative, at least some. Of course. . .if they do end up being wolves, their brains mean that they'll be dangerous. But, at this point in the game, there's little or no reason to vote them off because there is no proof.

-- Jack

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I was not serious, it was just a comment on our earlyer political discution. . .
that's why i used the

Sorry about the miss understanding


About Aiwendil the reason he is on my list is that there is practical nothing to go by. Please dont think to much of my list suspects, it is based on allmost nothing.

[mormegil]

My suspicion that I spoke of earlier is already being voiced by some. It is of course Wilwarin538 and not only because of her vote for Formendacil.

Anyway, since many others whove spoke accused someone, I might as well do the same. I'll use my number to choose three suspects, and I'll come up wit the best reasons I can think of.

3. Dancing Spawn of Ungliant - Well she embroiderd' me a case for my fiddle last week. It was red, I hate red, every person that lives within in a mile of the village knows that, plus red is the colour of blood, maybe she 'adn't seen blood for awhile and was missin what it looked like.

Now, these selections of hers were random, or so she says, so we can either believe her or disbelieve her. It seems a common wolfish trick to mention early a fellow wolf then back off suspicion just a bit.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant - Has gotten de mos votes thus far. Not sure bouts her. 5

Formendacil – E's posted a few times I believe. Though somethin bout him is strange. Like his last post for 'xample, very strange. 4

Gurthang – Seems one of da most suspicious like to me. A bit defensive, votes early. My vote may possibly be for him. 3

Jack – Talks a bit, makes 'imself sound smart, then advises us not to vote for smart people. Tryin to save 'imself perhaps? Vote possibly for 'im. 3

Wilwarin used a ranking system of 1 to 10 as 10 being innocent and 1 being guilty. 5 seems to be rather conspicuous a number to me, though of course I was a 5 too which adds to my suspicion (I'll explain in a second) She wants us to think that Spawn is still in her sights at this stage but give us an excuse for backing off later because she found others more suspicious. Now why I think having me as a 5 is more implicating of her guilt, ot me at least, is that I am innocent and a wise wolf would at least include one other with the same number so as to not draw attention to that.

Notice that she has Gurthang ahead of Formendacil in that post yet she votes for Formendacil

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

Now this post could implicate her further or actually help to exonerate her. If she truly wanted to vote Jack I think you should have. There were still others after you to break the tie but if you truly thought Jack was guilty concience should dictate that you vote for him. But if you buy her altruistic explination then she is innocent.

Still most telling is that she broke the tie and voted for the person, in my mind, who was the least guilty looking of the three in the tie.

However with those that voted for Spawn is should be remembered as SpM pointed out they could be a wolf. I say this because as we know Spawn was going to have problems participating in our daily meetings and council so perhaps she was a sacrifice to help establish innocence. As for me I will be currently trusting SpM, and Aiwendil and to a lesser degree Boromir.