Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As I've already said, I must leave now and get on with the job of living (those pearls aren't going to come out of the oysters on their own) so much as it pains me, I will have to cast my vote now even though I desperately desire to see more from everyone before voting.

As I've also said, there's really no grounds for any real suspicion a this point, although Aiwendil with his Seer suggestion has raised some interesting points and made some interesting observations. Of all the summations thus far, his -- I think -- is the most useful:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Mormegil: Thinks my idea is contradictory.
Gurthang: Thinks my idea will expose the Seer. Proposes that the Seer dream of Fordim or the SPM.
Dancing Spawn: Says I'm putting words in the Seer's mouth and that this will help the Wolves. Votes against me.
Lhunardawen: Says that I'm asking the Seer to do the impossible.
Saucepan Man: Says that my idea is sensible but difficult to put into action. Does not think it's a trick.

He goes on, based on this analysis, to name Gurthang and Dancing Spawn as his prime suspects. Interestingly, both of them have expressed suspicion of me....

So, like I say, I have no real way of knowing if either of them are wolves. In fact, I am only 3/14 ths sure that one of them is a wolf, but as I have to vote now, and as Aiwendil has made the most sense so far, I will have to vote for one of them.

Gurthang is far too obvious a choice: if he is a wolf, he's an incredibly silly one, and I haven't seen enough of Gurthy yet to determine if he is that silly....so, that leaves

++DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Cross posted with Rune, Folly, and Formy .

[Folwren]

'Jack', dear. Folly's very feminine. Jack, for now. It's cute, Folly is, but Jack . . . well. . .you know.

-- Jack

[mormegil]

I have remained relatively quiet until now because I wanted to observe some behavior and I think it is time to come forward with my thoughts. While I found Aiwendil's seer statement moderately contradictory, I found it fairly innocent and I made my comments about Aiwendil's guilt as fairly innocuous. Meaning I really didn't suspect him but wanted some point to discuss and I think it has been fruitful so far. Aiwendil does a good job at outlining some of his suspects in relation to this list. I would be more inclined to vote for Gurthang over Spawn; the reason being is that Spawn would be a bit more shrewd if she were a wolf than she was, this is not a proclamation of her innocence but currently I'm not overly concerned with her.

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Jack

I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category.

Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!".

Originally Posted by Kath

Now I'm not too keen on Folwren but for that I have a little more reasoning, well not much, just this sentence:

Quote:
I don't kill animals during the day.

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

Now that seems a bit spurious to me, young lass. What are you suggesting that it implies? A Wolvish hint? Well it seems to me that there bain't no chance of Wolves dropping hints intentionally. So mayhaps you're suggesting it was a slip? Well, if so, it's a slip just as likely to be made by an innocent - moreso given that Wolves are likely to be more careful 'bout what they say. Seizing 'pon such a phrase looks suspicious in itself to me, so my eye is now on you too.

My main suspicions still lie with Master Hedgethistle and young Gurthang, though. The former because he set out a plan which really didn't look much of a plan to me, but more of a statement of the obvious. And at the same time, he looked to be implying sommet nasty 'bout those who made early (mostly random) accusations - mayhaps a way of deflecting suspicion from hisself. Other than that, he has given little away concerning his own thoughts, but instead piggy-backed on Aiwendil's reasoning to cast his vote. Now, while I myself see much sense in what our Scholar has said, I would have expected a little more original thought from someone so highly regarded as Master H.

As for Gurthang, like mormegil, I still see it as possible that he voted early as a means of deflecting suspicion, thinking that people would see it as too dangerous a game for a Wolf to play. The lad hints at this being part of some grand plan. Well, I shall await to see what he has to offer.

With all that's been going on, there's not much business down at the harbour, so I shall bide my time and vote nearer to the deadline.

[Gurthang]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.

Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.

2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.

Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.

3. Gurthang is a wolf.

Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.

4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.

By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.

5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.

The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.

6. Gurthang is the cobbler.

Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.

Any additions or corrections are welcome.

[Kath]

++Fordim Hedgethistle

Why? Because I have no real suspicions today. My only one even loosely based on reasoning was Folwren and she gave a very ratty reply to that though it did make sense.

Fordim on the other hand has just told us that he is a wolf. I have no idea whether he's telling truth or playing some kind of bluff or what, but since we don't know who anyone is at the moment, we might as well lynch someone who has 'admitted' to being a wolf.

[Folwren]

Originally observed by SpM:
Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!".

Herm. . .sorry ol' chap. I see your point, and I apologize greatly. But, you know, if there are any smart wolves in the pack, then they wouldn't have needed me to tell them anyway. Be that as it may, I am sorry. You'll believe me, I hope.

Concerning some of the few accusations flying around. . .

I doubt Wayne's the Cobbler. Surely, he could be, but it's pretty much impossible to tell from this point. People think he's suspiciously silent and not giving any reasons for his votes and whatever else you'll bring against him. Well, right now, I would probably say that his silence isn't something that shows whether he's innocent or not innocent, because that's just how he is. He's a quiet little fellow, if you haven't noticed. Indisposed towards talking. You won't find out if he's a wolf by how many words he says. . .

Holbytlass on the other hand. . .Boromir, I'd have to agree with what you said. Her bringing our professions up and throwing them back into our faces (and getting mine mixed up, no less) is a rather far out idea, but one that may get people thinking on the wrong and totally random track. Hence, it is indeed a possibility that she is the Cobbler. But, you must all understand, this is only speculation. I can't, as everyone else can't, prove my point. It's just something to consider a while.

Naught else to say at the time being. . .

-- Jack

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS of Gurthang's "OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS"

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.

Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.

2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.

Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.

We can now set aside these theories...Gurthang ain't no Seer...

3. Gurthang is a wolf.

Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.

Can't think of any reason to set this one aside.

4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.

By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.

This didn't quite work out...did it?

5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.

The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.

Seems to me there's less drastic ways of doing that.

6. Gurthang is the cobbler.

Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.

For those who haven't noticed, the only two options from this list -- which Gurthang himself has thoughtfully provided -- that remain unproblematically believeable are numbers 3 and 6....

I still ain't making any accusations. I'm just going through yesterday's posts again and this one kind of leaped out at me -- like a pearl from an oyster shell you could say.

[Aiwendil]

Fordim mentioned a matter to which I've given some thought: our harbourmaster. I was going to wait and observe him longer without voicing any suspicion, but now that the topic's been broached, I might as well speak my mind.

I said earlier that the wolves must be crafty indeed if they picked Jack out as the Seer. Now, he may not quite speak the king's Adunaic, but The Saucepan Man is a clever fellow. If he's a wolf, he's a very good one, and any signs will be subtle in the extreme.

YesterDAY, he voiced suspicion of Gurthang and Fordim - notice that he did not suspect Dancing Spawn. Of course, it's completely possible (indeed, rather likely) that he simply failed to guess she was a wolf. On the other hand, he did just what I think a smart wolf would do in that situation. He refrained from adding fuel to the fire burning against Spawn, but he made no obvious move to save her. And he saved his vote for the end, giving it to Fordim only once Spawn could not be saved. Today he retracts his accusation of Fordim - as indeed he must. But notice that he does not voice suspicion of Wilwarin, claiming that her vote was too obvious for a wolf. A genuine analysis or a subtle effort to save his surviving comrade?

Now there's the matter of Jack's defense of SPM. Mormegil seems to surmise that Jack dreamt of our harbourmaster and found him innocent. I agree that this is a strong possibility. On the other hand, Jack did not leave any clear statement on the matter.

I'm certainly not suggesting we lynch SPM now or in the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't put him on a "likely innocent" list just yet either.

[Boromir88]

Well, I 'ave quite a bit more time before I go back to tendin' my crabs.

Now I think all business owners had some dislike of this tax man of ours and some had more to benefit than others. I mean really how much profit is there in crabbing and pearl diving? That points to Fordim and Boromir although Jack's business has been slow lately and has to benefit by saving on taxes and on increasing our paranoia so that we buy more weapons and armor.~mormegil

I aint gonna try to deny that I's lost my house, cus I culdn't affourd it anymore wid all the taxes. Now, I live on sum cruddy ol' boat on the shore. But, I aint never 'ate Alcarillo, or any tax collectors. The ways I've always seen it wus, every mans gotta right to make 'is own livin'. And it aint Alcarillo's fault that 'es tryin' to make a livin' by takin' money an' workin' for the King. The ways it always been is the rich neva 'ave to pay money, it's always the brokin' backs of the pour that drive empires. I guess, I'm a sayin' I'm proud to be a 'ard workin' man that keeps the wheels a runnin' so to say. But, evry mans gotta make a livin'. And I aint gonna punish no man tryin' to make an 'onest livin'.

Everyone is surspecting Gurthang or Spawn. And they may very well be wulves. But, sumthin' doesn't sit right in me stomach with Holbytlass. It wus jus' this comment:

Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – pearl diver
Lhunardawen – shepherd girl
Jack – furrier/blacksmith
Holbytlass – butcher

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night? Not a very good plan, seeing as I'm on it too, so no doubt there would be other innocents on this list as well, got to start somewhere....

We aint executin' animal killers mi lady. We's a tryin' to execute wulfs. Though, I suppose its likely sumone on that list is a wulf. It jus' doesn't suit with me own logic that you shuld kill sumone based on their professin. We're all tryin' to make a livin'. Without me crabs I'd be on da street sittin' next to Kath. You don't 'ang a man cus you dun like his profession.

Fur that, Holbytlass an' I suppose Gurthang ar' me top two surspects at this point. And I aint gunna foget Rune for 'is snappy comments earlier, but I suppose there's much 'ore suspisius stuff fur me to look at.

Like the Panman, I will wait an' 'old my vote 'til latuh.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

Why thank ye, mormegil! I be honored to find myself so highly thought of, aside from how wretched your claim makes me appear.


From me own analysis above, I will tell ye all that the truth be number 4 and number 5. But, me saying so will not make no difference to those who already think guilty of me. In fact, I'm sure mormegil and Saucepan will use it against me. I don't be saying that's bad though, I'd be doing the same in their shoes.

My vote be already wasted, but I'm keeping an eye on Kath, although that's mostly from what other people have said of her posts. And now her vote, in which I find the reasons and the action not lining up.

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.

Votes so far:

Gurthang (Formedacil-1)
Lhunardawen (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1)
Wayne (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1)
dancing spawn (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
Formendacil (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, dancing spawn-1)
Fordim Hedgethistle(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
mormegil(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1)
Kath (dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1, Fordim-1)



Oh, Kath, dear, it twas Formedacil that claimed himself to be a wolf.

[Aiwendil]

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.

That's "he", for future reference

And let me emphasize that I do not suspect "any who don't support some group 'plan'". Rather, I suspect those that seemed to suggest that my proposal was a trick. As I said before, if it were a Wolvish trick, it would be a very poor one indeed.

[Kath]

Oh fribble! Many apologies Fordim! That's twice I've got your names mixed up now! Shoot I can't go back and change it either can I? I'm so sorry. I must find a way to separate your names in my head.

1) Contrary to what Kath has said, Gurthang has not voted to lynch me...not this Day, leastaways.

No indeed you are correct he has not, that was for Formendacil. If I'm still alive tomorrow after these idiotic mistakes rest assured that I will find a new name for one of you and so avoid doing so for a third time.

Ah but wait! Formendacil did say that Fordim too was a wolf, so if I'm going by the same logic that I'll vote for someone who admits it then it follows through still. Ok, yes, I know that doesn't really work but hey, who knows what's going on here! And I would like my vote to count for something.

[Boromir88]

I crossed widda couple of peeple. Now, I'm gonna go back to my simple, plain, logic as in when I furst was spekkin' this mornin'.

Again, with fifthten peeple, an' three wolfes, I think its logical fur me to say that sumone who's gotten a vote so far is a wulf. So 'eres whos gotten a vote so far...

Spawn (2)
Formendacil
Wayne
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim

If you wis' to follow my suggestiun, I say this is a good enuff list for Day 1, 'nd we shuldnt put anymore opshuns up fur a lynchin'. Though this is jus' my own logic, ya'll may vote 'ow yall please.

Again, goin' back to logic, it's likely one of dese peeple is a wulf, nd' we shuld try to figger out which one.

Fur me own personal opiniun Wayne, isnt a wulf. I think 'es jus' distraut 'ver the loss of 'is close frien'. I 'ope he becums 'ore 'elp in the future, or purhaps I may begin surspectin' 'es a wulf.

Aiwendil, besides bein' a snobby fonetican (phonetician) I see nuttin' in 'im to think 'es a wulf, yet.

So to me, this leafs...
Spawn
Formendacil
Lhuna
Gurthang
Fordim

Gurthang I guess you can call me a big softy, but I think 'es tellin' us the truth an' I dun think 'es a wolf. I knows earlier I surspects 'im, but it was in the middle of cross-postin' wid 'im too, so I take back my suspishuns. I think 'es an 'onest man, tellin' us 'is ideas and wut 'es doin'. But, thats jus' me own opinion.

Fordim, 'es a lot smarter dan me, so I just aint gonna vote fur 'im yet. I think 'e can be a good benfit fur the village if 'es not a wulf. I aint comtable votin' out sumone 'ho can 'elp us.

I aint gotta reddin' on Formendacil yet. 'e aint dunnalotta spekkin' yet, but I think thats jus' the way 'e typically is. I dun surspect 'im yet.

So this leafs Spawn an' Lhuna. Both voted rathuh early if ya ask me. Though Gurthang voted first, I believe 'im and typically I dun surspect sumone to vote early. But, I think we do 'ave an early votin' wulf amongst us, 'nd I think either Spawn or Lhuna wus tryin' to tag 'long with Gurthang, 'opin too to cast off suspishun. Though its 'ard for me to vote fur one of them, cus they a have to vote earlier, cus of the timezones.

I dun gotta bad fellin' about Holbytlass, but based on me logic that it's probable dat one of the peeple voted fur so far is a wulf, I dun feel comtable addin' anuther name to the lis'. But, I still gotta a while befur I 'ave to decide. Thats' just me own thoughts on the canidites up fur lynchin' so far.