Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Kath]

Double lynchings eh, looks like they're more trouble than they're worth! Rune and Gurthang both innocents. Now I'll admit to having thought Gurthang was likely the Cobbler, but Rune? I never did understand the suspicion on him. And wilwa dead too, so that's three innocents in a very short space of time. The only good thing is that none of them were Gifted, the bad thing is that there is now a higher chance the wolves will get a Gifted toNight.

So, now that I have some time, lets have a look at those who are still alive.
Aiwendil – early first day poster with an immediate answer to an acusation of being non-commital. Has some good ideas on wolf strategy (because he knows them?) but then some rather contradictory ones on Seer strategy. He tries then to explain, I wonder whether he just couldn't articulate it in the way he wanted. Is then accused by spawn of wanting to make it too easy for the wolves. With the knowledge that spawn was a wolf this could be an attempt for the two to distance themselves. Lhuna then agrees with his ideas, but since I find her suspicious I'm not sure that she's not trying to ally herself with someone seemingly innocent. spawn votes for him and again I wonder why - because of his Seer talk is her reason. Perhaps she was trying to make it look like she wanted to keep the Seer hidden, or she wanted to take suspicion of Aiwendil. Saucepan Man agrees with him and sees him as an innocent. Rune was also suspicious of Aiwendil, but since we now know him to be an ordinary innocent we can't take them as any kind of proof. mormegil backtracks on his early suspicion of Aiwendil though claims he only suspected him in the first place to get some talking going on. As so far my view of Aiwendil is that he is innocent this makes me suspicious of morm. Gurthang is also suspicious of him, but again he had no real basis or knowledge. We hear from the man himself who refutes suggestions that he wants all to follow one plan, he just suspects those who thought his proposal was a trick - fair enough, if his proposal was innocent, suspicious if not. Boro finds no reason to suspect him at all. So Day 1 he seems completely innocent to me.

Complains at the Seer for leaving clues that would get her killed and then suspects anyone who voted for Formendacil. Suspects wilwa (who we know now to be innocent) and Gurthang (same again). Fordim sees him as an innocent. Suspects Saucepan Man for similar reasons to my own. I hadn't seen the clues to Jack's Seership and those who did may have used it for their own gain - but that's later. Has a lot of support from Gurthang, so is allied with a known innocent. Holby is suspicious of him due to sparring with spawn, saying he bandwagons and leads people away from his own vote - she makes some sense actually. Formendacil thinks Aiwendil could be a wolf due to his voting. Lhuna feels he is innocent as she did on Day 1 - so at least she's consistent. Is defended by Sauce though he does not believe Aiwendil to be wholly trustworthy, though he does not suspect him. Boro again counts Aiwendil as an innocent - I think due to the voting. Holby puts him as one of her top suspects. Aiwendil then strongly suspects wilwa (a now known innocent) for her wolf-like vote, though that is only going with the general consensus of the village at the time. Argues against morm's plan (thankfully) and then says he suspects Rune, Gurthang and wilwa - oops! Fordim is relatively sure Aiwendil is not a wolf. Gurthang now sees him as innocent, which is a reversal from the Day before. Rune sees him as an innocent. Aiwendil then votes for Rune, and suspects both Gurthang and wilwa in the same post, again, looking at what we know now - oops! Day 2 I again can't see him as suspicious.

ToDay can't work out why the wolves went after wilwa, and seems genuinely not to know. Then starts on an insane numerical list which puts him as the least suspicious - certainly odd. Boro again sees him as an innocent. Again has support from Sauce, which makes me think he's more likely to be innocent because the support is so absolute. Is very low on Wayne's list though, as usual, we have no reasoning for this. Holby remains very suspicious of him for his voting yesterday, with him being the last to vote for spawn. Lhuna seems to feel that he should be trusted since it was his posting that brought about suspicion of spawn.

That's everything from the last few Days. From all that I can't see that Aiwendil should be suspected, but I began this post with the idea in my head that he was innocent. I would appreciate it if someone who is looking at him as a wolf (i.e. Holby) would read through all that and see if there's anything suspicious looking.

So, Kath, Lhuna, Wayne, spek up or foreva 'old yur peace.

Enough chatter for you now? I'll do this again for someone later but just before I head off I'm really looking hard at Sauce right now. He picked up on all Jack's clues, if before the kill then it's likely he is a wolf, if after then maybe not so much. But I don't trust him.

[Boromir88]

I won't deny that I 'ad wondered the same misself. I fully expected not to wake up this morning. But then the same might be said of a nummer 'ere - such as Master Hedgethistle, Formendacil, Aiwendil, mormegil (although 'is central role in the double lynching might explain why 'es been kept alive) and, of course, yerself Farmer Crabbe.~Sauce

Tis true, I admi' I wus surprised I wusnt wacked yet. We've 'ad three killin's, I wus expectin' to be wacked or if not me, Aiwendil on Night 2. But seein' as the wulves found the Seer they obviously went with the more dangerous threat, cus all I got is me guts. But, I'm baffled by this recent kill and why one of the names you mention above (includin' misself) wusnt wacked last night.

You need to take a look at the town notice board (aka the admin thread).

Thanks fur explainin' I thought I missed sum'in.

Lhuna's argumen' against morm makes sense. It seems like morm knows a lot about the wulves strategy (the sacrifice of Spawn and the pointin' us to the words of the seer), yet despite all this knowledge of wut the wulves are doin' 'es failed to be of any 'elp.

Despite this argument Lhuna 'as come up with she culd also be a wulf who sees that she's fallin under the scope and is searchin' for sumone to turn the village 'gainst.

It now occurs to me that 'least one wulf is sittin' on the 'igh groun' so to say. Knowin' that us villagers are down 'ere jus' goin' roun' in circle, there's a quiet wulf out there that is jus' sittin' back laughin' at us, while we go after eachuthuh. I dun think both wulves are quiet ones, I think it's logical to say that there's a loudmouf wulf stirrin' the pot so to say, an' a quiet wulf watchin' it all.

So my loudmoufs:

Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil
mormegil

My quiets:

Lhuna
Kath
Wayne
Formendacil
Holby

Of the loudmoufs, I still dun surspect Aiwendil or Fordim. I think of the two, Aiwendil seems most likely to be the innocen' one (unless Holby can come up with sum explanations why). Fordim's vote fur Spawn to put 'er in the lead culd be cus 'e didn't think she wuld be lynched, but if she wus 'e now culd go unsurspected, but I dun think so at this point.

Mormegil and Panman look to be the mos' suspishus of the loudmoufs. Both, who 'ave said a lot, and we've taken as wise and knowledgeable 'ave done fairly little to 'elp us and despite all their analysis 'avent a wulf kill to back it up. I wuldnt doubt if one of 'eese two is the wulf puttin' their fingers in the stew.

Of the queits, Formendacil remains to be a puzzle to me. I 'ope sumone can figger 'im out and share, cus right now though 'e be quiet, it aint no reason to think 'es a wulf, it wuts been in 'is few posts that count.

Holby, I cant use 'er no-vote against 'er, cus of the circumstances, but right now she seems to be anuthuh quiet innocen' cus of 'er suspectin' Aiwendil. Seems odd you may say, but any innocen' with only a gut to go on 'as to wunder whos doin' the leadin' after las' night.

Wayne continues to come an' go, and I wuld vote fur 'im soon, cus 'es only goin' to be more of a trouble. Though Panman is right, it scares me that 'e may be a gifted.

Lhuna, I've explained above, though 'er pos' against mormegil makes sense, a good wulf can twist aroun' the truth to 'is/'er own advantage. Though I mus' agree with wut she says on morm.

Enough chatter for you now?~Kath

It relly aint 'ow much you pos' or 'ow often you pos' its wuts in 'em that counts. While this is a 'elpful analysis of Aiwendil, it's basically an regurgitation of wuts gone on the las' few days, but I look forward to wut else yu 'ave to offer befor the days out.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Im back and after thinking about this morning. Saucepanman is at the top of my list morms reasing makes sense to me.Lhuna is probebly the cobbler I suspected her on day 1 and 2 and I think she making the villagers lyeanch people that she thinks is innocent. Morm is a helpful player hes doing what every player should do.Boromir I dont know he Just seems suspicous to me.Kath is not strang or acting weird to me I am begining to think she is inocent.Fordims vote for me was ok because he has a good reoson for it but I wouldent like any more but I still think he is suspiceus.Formen looks fine to me nothing suspicous about him. Aiwendil is another one I dont know about. Well I going to school now good bye

[The Saucepan Man]

'Zounds! 'As someone bin a puttin' sommet in the good doctor's water? 'E's just said more in one post than 'e's said in the past two days together.

Originally Posted by Wayne

Saucepanman is at the top of my list morms reasing makes sense to me.

True 'nuff that it makes sense. True, that is, if you take things as I've said 'n done out of context, wrap 'em all up in a nice tidy bundle and add a few prejudicial words for decoration, like. A similar kind of thing could probably be done fer most villagers 'ere. Since Mormegil's case against me 'as been brought up, though, I will comment on one thing as 'e says:

Notice that while he says he has no clear idea of guilt he continually stirs the pot and is very influential in who the town votes for.

Does anyone 'ere (those as is innocent) 'ave any clear idea of anyone's guilt? All I can go on is me suspicions, and I've taken' care to outline 'em clearly (unlike Morm, I might add, bein' as 'e never explained why Rune suddenly appeared on 'is suspect list). 'Ave I really "stirred up the pot" any more than anyone else? And, while I'm flattered you think an' 'umble harbourmaster like me to be influential, I reckon that most, if not all, 'ere are more than capable of makin' up their own minds.

It was these thoughts from Master Mormegil as got me thinkin' that maybe 'e is a Wolf an' 'is strategy is to leave me alone last night with a view to leadin' the case against me during the day. Then again, I've thought similar of 'im before and bin proven wrong. However, I tend to agree with Boro that Mistress Lhuna brings out some good points against 'im. True 'nuff, they work both ways, but it's the very fact that Morm 'as appeared so 'elpful that makes me worry 'bout 'im. Wouldn't that be the best way for a Wolf to act? Yet, as Boro points out, 'e (like me, I accept) 'as actually got little right so far.

Originally Posted by Wayne

Morm is a helpful player hes doing what every player should do.

Can't disagree with you there. But then, three out of the four innocents who 'ave died so far were actin' in a way generally thought to be unhelpful and suspicious. Mayhaps it's time we started lookin' at those who are goin' out of their way to appear as helpful and innocent as possible.

I shall 'ave me eye on Master Mormegil today, that's fer sure.

One last thing afore I go fer a while:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

A secondary thought that occurred to me in the writing of this, was that if the Seer dreams of Cobblers as Innocents, then some assumptions about this village may be wrong.

I fully accepts the implication behind that comment. Even if you think Jack did dream of me an' find me innocent, that don't clear me of bein' the Cobbler. I ain't, but I don't expect you to take me word fer it. You'll just 'ave to make up yer own mind.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Mister Boromir

Despite this argument Lhuna 'as come up with she culd also be a wulf who sees that she's fallin under the scope and is searchin' for sumone to turn the village 'gainst.

Begging your pardon, sir, what I just did would be a very risky thing for a werewolf to do. If I were a wolf and I build such a convincing case (though mine's still not yet so convincing, it seems) against who I know is innocent, and if I were successful in having that person lynched, wouldn't I just have tied the rope around my own neck and strangled myself? No, sir...I am risking even my life (because we never know what the Night will bring) for what I've seen, and felt you should all realize. If I'm wrong, I'm so sorry Mister mormegil. You're just too good to be true. But while you are not yet proved innocent, you are suspicious on those grounds.

[Lhunardawen]

Mister PanMan sir, my name is Lhunardawen. NOT Lhunadarwen. And please don't call me mistress...I'm too young for that.

[mormegil]

Lhuna your suspicion of me is just fine and you need not apologize for it. I don't know what to think of your post. It does one of two things in my mind. Elevates you to wolf status or completely innocent. I say that because I am innocent and it seems wolfish to me to attack me but I say innocent because it seems that you went through many posts (although some were taken out of time context) and that you truly thought on it. Now that could be a wolf but this is something I do often as an innocent so that helps me think you innocent. Though it is interesting to be told..."you're being to helpful, therefore you must be a wolf."

More later