Tol-in-Gaurhoth XV-The Villagers Strike Back! - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 12-20-2005, 08:00 AM

There's now too little time to make any solid theories on my own and I feel bad about it, but there's this horrible, unpredictable factor called RL. I'm also afraid that in a hurry, I could make flawed reasonings *coughKitannacough* (

the cross-posting thing that Menel kindly corrected) so even though I trust the most my own brain, I must now go with a theory that sounds the most reasonable to me.

Before that, a few ponderings based on what other wolves have said:

Formendacil has made contradicting statements today and his "protest vote" for Mith was reather odd. A nice way to vote without leaving any tracks to follow. Sure, he's right that Mith's innocence shouldn't been taken as granted, but right now, there's a whole bunch of wolves who seem more suspicious than her.

ToNight has made me a bit more wary of Kitanna (I voiced mild suspicion of her yesterNight). But I'm not sure what to think of her. As I said earlier, I'd be suspicious of people who make accusations so eagerly that they fail to check all the available information of their suspects, but then again, little mistakes happen to everyone.

As Boromir said, perhaps I have been toNights "easy target" because of my absence and now some consider my silence to be suspicious (which I find a bit unfair since I gave you a fair warning beforehand). Since there hasn't been much suspicion of me after Boro's post, I should think that there was at least one hero trying to get rid of me. Nonnac's vote for me -- well, apparently this guy's strategy is quite clear: if you suspect or vote for him, he'll vote for you.

Farael on the other hand said that there was "something wrong" with me and then he complains that I've been so silent and when I posted, I just defended myself. Well, it was pure chance that I even got here before school. The only thing I did to defend myself was when I corrected Menel's somewhat flawed accusation.

Hmm, we have now a three-way tie... not good. There are 2 votes for me, 2 for Farael and 2 for Kitanna. Obviously, I won't vote for myself. Help... Kitanna or Farael. I haven't been suspicious of Farael before toNight, though. I need to think a few minutes.

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 12-20-2005, 08:02 AM

OH NO! The deadline's now. And some cross-posting, too.

++KITANNA

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-20-2005, 08:35 AM

Ang didn't specify the deadline. He might let it run until 3.30 PM, about the time the day started yesterday.

If so then the other voters might have time to drop by. Kitanna and Oddwen, I think.

Gurthang · 12-22-2005, 05:13 AM

Voting:

Farael: 1
Nonnacedak: 1
Gurthang: 2
Meneltarmacil: 1

Votes left: 14

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-22-2005, 05:19 AM

Yeah, my above theory is rather dreadful.

I just thought I'd point out the post from Rune, which I find very strange. (By the way, it's #126)

I have no idea who to vote for. There are several I think innocent but none that I think particularly guilty. Mormegil's snappiness and willingness to fight just about everyone makes me uneasy but then he is a famous loudmouth and this could well be just his way.

So I'm going to vote for someone whose death will, I think, give us the most information. Back soon.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-22-2005, 05:32 AM

Nonna? No. Bandwagon reason.

Menel? No. Other reason.

Farael? No. Obviously.

Gurthang? Perhaps, but he already has 2 votes.

Introduce one more to the list? Yes. To spread it out and see where the votes come from more clearly.

(Sorry, his death might not give us the most information, but it will arrange the current votes in an interesting way.)

Plus, I certainly don't presume him innocent.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 12-22-2005, 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gurthang

It could just as easily be a hero bluff as a gifted hint, although for some reason I feel that I should want to believe him gifted (if that makes sense).

There's also a third possibility -- that Farael is an innocent acting a gifted and if he won't die toNight, he will offer himself to the Heroes to kill and gives the gifteds another Day to do what they're supposed to do.

Nonnac has now voted for Gurthang even though he was so eager to get someone killed from the 'Nonnac bandwagon' - did he get scared of Boromir's theory and is now trying to look less guilty? There has been much talk about Nonnac, Gurthang and Farael today. Of all these, Nonnac looks most suspicious, but I'm not so sure that I would vote yet. I have to look more closely at people who have slipped under my radar, because those villagers make most dangerous enemies.

EDIT: Obviously cross-posted with Farael and a couple of other people, too. I have no reason to question Farael's confession.

Mithalwen · 12-22-2005, 06:41 AM

++FARAEL

Meneltarmacil is innocent. 100% certain.

I am now convinced that Farael is a wolf. If he is the hunter he is severely misguided. Either way we are better off with him dead.

Boromir88 · 12-22-2005, 06:56 AM

Well what interesting progressions we have going on. My vote should be no surprise to anyone here...

++Nonnacedak

Of things that transpired lately.

To Farael, our master Carcaroth, I would not go after Meneltarmacil tonight. However, you are the one with the choice, so do what you feel right. Myself personally would not go after Meneltarmacil. Even though I did notice that he changed from defending you when I accused you, to now accusing you, I still don't see him as a hero. My suggestion to you would be to get rid of the two people who have been the most suggested (Nonnacedak and Gurthang). Meaning say if we eat Nonnacedak, you bring Gurthang down at night, or the other way around. This way we don't get hampered down in voting by the other one the next day. If these are the villages two biggest suspects, we go after them, not for other personal reasons. Though again, you are the one with the decision, I would do things differently, but afterall it's up to you.

I doubt you will die tonight, unless of course you pick someone who is not a hero, then the heroes would be more than glad to kill you. I'm almost tempted to tell you not to go on the hunt tonight, for the risk of killing an innocent wolf, but at the worst taking down another gifted. If you are going out for the kill, my suggestion would be to go after Gurthang or Nonnacedak, which ever one isn't eaten by us.

Gurthang · 12-22-2005, 05:38 AM

In response to Eomer's suspicion of Wayne, I do have something to say. I hope I'm not blowing something here, but I think that Wayne is either Sauron or a hero.

Let me explain. Usually, in his first post of a game, Wayne hints what his role is, usually with capital letters or bolded letters spelling something out. I specifically noticed that he did not this game. The only reasons he wouldn't are if he were a hero or Sauron. I know he's been a Ranger or Hunter before and still gave his hint.

But which is he? I'm not sure, but I do find it a bit strange that Wayne first mentions Eomer, and now Eomer is suddenly making a case against Wayne. If Wayne is a hero, then Eomer is likely innocent. If Wayne is Sauron, then perhaps Eomer is a hero.

Now, most of that is speculation, and really leaves us just wondering what to do about it. For myself, I need to get some sleep, so I won't be making a descision about this toNight.

So, back to my descision between Farael and Nonnacedak. I went through the thread quickly, and hardly found any interaction between Rune and either of the two in question. Here's what I've got:

Rune(#68)-lets both Nonna and Farael be for their newness.
Nonnacedak(#121)-notes my ‘odd’ switch to Rune on Day 1
Farael(#132)-tells Rune that ‘everyone can be a hero’
Nonnacedak(#180)-says he’ll vote B88 or Spawn because they have not voted Rune either night
Nonnacedak(#197)-again mentions my Day 1 switch from himself to Rune
Farael(#212)-notes how Menel was first to vote for Rune on Day 2

Through this, I've found more scraps to add to Nonna's evidence pile(which has grown quite a bit), and I've actually become less suspicious of Farael. His recent posts have been making sense to me and seem to be innocent. I also want to believe what he says in post #206. So, that being said:

++Nonnacedak

Even if Nonnacedak proves to be a hero, I still wouldn't count out Spawn and Boromir completely. For my reasoning in this, see post #198.

Gurthang · 12-22-2005, 05:48 AM

Farael, I have nothing against your choice. I really am the ever so slightest bit suspicious of Menel, so I do not object. I'm sorry if I have pushed you out. I am glad though, that I did not vote for you. Happy Hunting.

Eomer's vote is interesting. It looks like the end of this Night may reveal quite a great deal. Good luck fellow wolves. Let us hope that Draugluin is lucky again during the Day.

Farael · 12-22-2005, 05:51 AM

Don't feel sorry Gurthang for I might have not noticed that I had posted something that hinted at my giftedness. That is not what I meant but if I am to be slayed by the heroes I shall take one with me. Or more, if my suspicions against Menel are true and I can convince more people to vote against him.

Sauron's orders would be much appreciated, but I will not ask him to reveal himself just yet.

Gurthang · 12-22-2005, 06:00 AM

First off, Voting:

Farael: 1
Nonnacedak: 2
Gurthang: 2
Meneltarmacil: 1
Wayne: 1

Votes left: 7

(I just realized earlier that there wer 9 votes left and I accidentally put 14 left.)

12-20-2005, 08:35 AM	#3
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Ang didn't specify the deadline. He might let it run until 3.30 PM, about the time the day started yesterday. If so then the other voters might have time to drop by. Kitanna and Oddwen, I think. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

12-22-2005, 05:13 AM	#4
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Voting: Farael: 1 Nonnacedak: 1 Gurthang: 2 Meneltarmacil: 1 Votes left: 14 __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

12-22-2005, 05:19 AM	#5
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Yeah, my above theory is rather dreadful. I just thought I'd point out the post from Rune, which I find very strange. (By the way, it's #126) I have no idea who to vote for. There are several I think innocent but none that I think particularly guilty. Mormegil's snappiness and willingness to fight just about everyone makes me uneasy but then he is a famous loudmouth and this could well be just his way. So I'm going to vote for someone whose death will, I think, give us the most information. Back soon. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

12-22-2005, 06:41 AM	#8
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	++FARAEL Meneltarmacil is innocent. 100% certain. I am now convinced that Farael is a wolf. If he is the hunter he is severely misguided. Either way we are better off with him dead. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

12-22-2005, 06:56 AM	#9
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	Well what interesting progressions we have going on. My vote should be no surprise to anyone here... ++Nonnacedak Of things that transpired lately. To Farael, our master Carcaroth, I would not go after Meneltarmacil tonight. However, you are the one with the choice, so do what you feel right. Myself personally would not go after Meneltarmacil. Even though I did notice that he changed from defending you when I accused you, to now accusing you, I still don't see him as a hero. My suggestion to you would be to get rid of the two people who have been the most suggested (Nonnacedak and Gurthang). Meaning say if we eat Nonnacedak, you bring Gurthang down at night, or the other way around. This way we don't get hampered down in voting by the other one the next day. If these are the villages two biggest suspects, we go after them, not for other personal reasons. Though again, you are the one with the decision, I would do things differently, but afterall it's up to you. I doubt you will die tonight, unless of course you pick someone who is not a hero, then the heroes would be more than glad to kill you. I'm almost tempted to tell you not to go on the hunt tonight, for the risk of killing an innocent wolf, but at the worst taking down another gifted. If you are going out for the kill, my suggestion would be to go after Gurthang or Nonnacedak, which ever one isn't eaten by us. __________________ Fenris Penguin

12-20-2005, 08:00 AM	#1
dancing spawn of ungoliant Mischievous Candle Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: So near to Russia, so far from Japan, quite a long way from Cairo, lots of miles from Vietnam. Posts: 1,234	There's now too little time to make any solid theories on my own and I feel bad about it, but there's this horrible, unpredictable factor called RL. I'm also afraid that in a hurry, I could make flawed reasonings coughKitannacough ( the cross-posting thing that Menel kindly corrected) so even though I trust the most my own brain, I must now go with a theory that sounds the most reasonable to me. Before that, a few ponderings based on what other wolves have said: Formendacil has made contradicting statements today and his "protest vote" for Mith was reather odd. A nice way to vote without leaving any tracks to follow. Sure, he's right that Mith's innocence shouldn't been taken as granted, but right now, there's a whole bunch of wolves who seem more suspicious than her. ToNight has made me a bit more wary of Kitanna (I voiced mild suspicion of her yesterNight). But I'm not sure what to think of her. As I said earlier, I'd be suspicious of people who make accusations so eagerly that they fail to check all the available information of their suspects, but then again, little mistakes happen to everyone. As Boromir said, perhaps I have been toNights "easy target" because of my absence and now some consider my silence to be suspicious (which I find a bit unfair since I gave you a fair warning beforehand). Since there hasn't been much suspicion of me after Boro's post, I should think that there was at least one hero trying to get rid of me. Nonnac's vote for me -- well, apparently this guy's strategy is quite clear: if you suspect or vote for him, he'll vote for you. Farael on the other hand said that there was "something wrong" with me and then he complains that I've been so silent and when I posted, I just defended myself. Well, it was pure chance that I even got here before school. The only thing I did to defend myself was when I corrected Menel's somewhat flawed accusation. Hmm, we have now a three-way tie... not good. There are 2 votes for me, 2 for Farael and 2 for Kitanna. Obviously, I won't vote for myself. Help... Kitanna or Farael. I haven't been suspicious of Farael before toNight, though. I need to think a few minutes. __________________ Fenris Wolf

12-20-2005, 08:02 AM	#2
dancing spawn of ungoliant Mischievous Candle Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: So near to Russia, so far from Japan, quite a long way from Cairo, lots of miles from Vietnam. Posts: 1,234	OH NO! The deadline's now. And some cross-posting, too. ++KITANNA __________________ Fenris Wolf

12-22-2005, 05:32 AM	#6
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Nonna? No. Bandwagon reason. Menel? No. Other reason. Farael? No. Obviously. Gurthang? Perhaps, but he already has 2 votes. Introduce one more to the list? Yes. To spread it out and see where the votes come from more clearly. (Sorry, his death might not give us the most information, but it will arrange the current votes in an interesting way.) Plus, I certainly don't presume him innocent. ++WAYNE THE GOBLIN __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

12-22-2005, 05:38 AM	#10
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	In response to Eomer's suspicion of Wayne, I do have something to say. I hope I'm not blowing something here, but I think that Wayne is either Sauron or a hero. Let me explain. Usually, in his first post of a game, Wayne hints what his role is, usually with capital letters or bolded letters spelling something out. I specifically noticed that he did not this game. The only reasons he wouldn't are if he were a hero or Sauron. I know he's been a Ranger or Hunter before and still gave his hint. But which is he? I'm not sure, but I do find it a bit strange that Wayne first mentions Eomer, and now Eomer is suddenly making a case against Wayne. If Wayne is a hero, then Eomer is likely innocent. If Wayne is Sauron, then perhaps Eomer is a hero. Now, most of that is speculation, and really leaves us just wondering what to do about it. For myself, I need to get some sleep, so I won't be making a descision about this toNight. So, back to my descision between Farael and Nonnacedak. I went through the thread quickly, and hardly found any interaction between Rune and either of the two in question. Here's what I've got: Rune(#68)-lets both Nonna and Farael be for their newness. Nonnacedak(#121)-notes my ‘odd’ switch to Rune on Day 1 Farael(#132)-tells Rune that ‘everyone can be a hero’ Nonnacedak(#180)-says he’ll vote B88 or Spawn because they have not voted Rune either night Nonnacedak(#197)-again mentions my Day 1 switch from himself to Rune Farael(#212)-notes how Menel was first to vote for Rune on Day 2 Through this, I've found more scraps to add to Nonna's evidence pile(which has grown quite a bit), and I've actually become less suspicious of Farael. His recent posts have been making sense to me and seem to be innocent. I also want to believe what he says in post #206. So, that being said: ++Nonnacedak Even if Nonnacedak proves to be a hero, I still wouldn't count out Spawn and Boromir completely. For my reasoning in this, see post #198. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

12-22-2005, 05:48 AM	#11
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Farael, I have nothing against your choice. I really am the ever so slightest bit suspicious of Menel, so I do not object. I'm sorry if I have pushed you out. I am glad though, that I did not vote for you. Happy Hunting. Eomer's vote is interesting. It looks like the end of this Night may reveal quite a great deal. Good luck fellow wolves. Let us hope that Draugluin is lucky again during the Day. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

12-22-2005, 05:51 AM	#12
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Don't feel sorry Gurthang for I might have not noticed that I had posted something that hinted at my giftedness. That is not what I meant but if I am to be slayed by the heroes I shall take one with me. Or more, if my suspicions against Menel are true and I can convince more people to vote against him. Sauron's orders would be much appreciated, but I will not ask him to reveal himself just yet. Last edited by Farael; 12-22-2005 at 05:51 AM. Reason: spelling

12-22-2005, 06:00 AM	#13
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Final thoughts... First off, Voting: Farael: 1 Nonnacedak: 2 Gurthang: 2 Meneltarmacil: 1 Wayne: 1 Votes left: 7 (I just realized earlier that there wer 9 votes left and I accidentally put 14 left.) __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.