Tol-in-Gaurhoth XV-The Villagers Strike Back!

[Boromir88]

I think Gurthang explains pretty well as far as why Kitanna didn't vote for Rune. I think another reason could have been that if she voted for Rune it would of course look like she's saving herself (which we would expect from any one whether innocent or not). So, if Rune turned out to be innocent Kitanna would expect to be dead next day. So, either way Kitanna felt like she would be dead soon whether it be today or the next, truly I noble sacrifice for a wolf. I would have prepared the body for proper burial if it wasn't the case that we needed something to eat. Oh well, still doesn't make her sacrifice less noble.

Ok, so this is purely off voting and hopefully later I can decipher some more. Voting was spread out yesterday, which could give us some helpful clues.

For Rune:
Meneltarmacil
Kath
Oddwen

For Kitanna:
Eomer
Mormegil
Spawn

For Spawn:
Farael
Nonnacedak

For Farael:
Gurthang
Wayne

For others:
Lhuna-Oddwen
Formendacil-Mith
Boromir-Nonnacedak
Mithalwen-Meneltarmacil
Kitanna-Mormegil
Rune-Formendacil

Now based off voting yesterday I'm not ready to exempt anyone who voted for Menel as a sure innocent. Though it does show favor to Kath and Oddwen as being innocent. Since voting was close they delivered crucial votes to end Rune's pathetic little life. Menel's vote doesn't clear him, he was the first vote, and it's possible that he didn't believe Rune would be lynched that day, but if Rune is happened to be lynched he'd have a good record to point to and say "See I voted for a hero." But, as of right now I have no reason to think Menel, or anyone who voted for Rune as another hero partner. Though I did find his argument against Rune well done yesterday (as I pointed out yesteray, and it turned out to be he was true) so right now anyone who voted for Rune looks pretty favorable. Though I'm not going to cast any of them off as sure innocents.

For those who voted for Kitanna I would probably say Eomer is the most suspicious of them. Spawn's vote looks bad, but as an experiences wolf (or perhaps human? She should expect that such a vote would make her look bad). Could it be a bluff possibly, but right now I think of those who voted for Kitanna, Eomer would look the most hero-esque simply because it would be a safer vote for a hero to hide in instead of someone like Spawn's vote. As much as I'd hate to admit, our crabby wolf does have a point in that someone has to propose ideas and find ways to win. Mr. Morm is acting no different from any other wolving adventures I've been on him with, he's always the one to propose plans, as crazy or "evil-intended" as they sound (i.e. saying our gifteds should come forward) his plans are usually with the best of intentions. Though, it's possible he knows this and is only using it for his own evil purposes, I do doubt it, and think our crabby wolf is just trying to help.

As far as some of the other votes go. Now, my main reason for saying I would suspect those who voted for Spawn was because she was not here a lot yesterday and would be an easy target to pile up on. I did not want another bandwagon started, especially against someone who wasn't here and explained she wasn't going to be here. After her vote Spawn will have a lot of explaining to do, but based on yesterday Farael's and Nonna's vote both seem like an attempt to get the ball rolling against Spawn, and I still hold those same beliefs. Nonna's vote especially looks like an attempt to get the ball rolling.

As far as some of the other votes, I'm afraid I can't make much out of them, seems like people just voted for who they believed to be guilty. Though a hero is probably hiding in there somewhere, I can't make out those votes, perhaps someone will be able to.

I will say my vote for Nonna is because I highly suspect him, no one changed my mind for who to vote yesterday and his vote for Spawn only made him look more heroish in my eyes.

[Boromir88]

Well, I'm posting again because I guess it's about time for me to start grouping people here...

Seems fairly innocent:
Meneltarmacil
Oddwen
Kath

Unsure, yet I'm willing to trust:
Mithalwen
Mormegil
Gurthang

Plain out unsure about:
Formendacil
Farael
Wayne
Lhuna

Who I'm keeping my eyes on:
Nonna
Spawn
Eomer

I think that's everyone.

[Mithalwen]

I am still analysing but unlike Boromir so far I think it highly unlikely that anyone who voted for Rune is a hero if you look at when they voted and the sequence - thank you Mr Grumpy-Morm!

[Farael]

Morm, Morm... are you a eager wolf or a cunning Hero? I must say I did not suspected you until today but am I the only one to notice a shortcoming in your plan? what if one of the heroes said to be Sauron? it would be a risky act, but would you risk devouring the true Sauron? even if it is a 50% chance, with only one hero left he/she could meassure his/her time and play it safe. Without Sauron we would have no way of knowing who the hero is but to have him/her make a mistake and he/she could easily attack Dragulin the first night and avoid Carcharoth so that he/she does not get accidentally killed. Your idea is noble indeed but too risky, not only for the gifteds who I'm sure are willing to risk their lives for the rest of us, but for all of us werewolves, warg and man. If we manage to get another hero, then we should consider that plan again, because it would be suicidal for the hero to pretend to be gifted.

Also, keep in mind that this sneaky hero could easily say he dreamt about Dragulin, Rune and anyone else and that he/she knew their roles. How are we going to tell it's a lie if the gifteds come out?

To explain my vote for spawn as I don't want to make myself more suspicious to those who already suspect me, I still believe that there is at least one hero in the Nonna bandwagon and I am not suspecting Boromir as much as before.

Regarding to-nights suspicions I shall think some more about them. I realize I'm walking the thin edge and I don't want to make you devour an innocent man just by mistake.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Werewolfs take the lead yae it looks like menel is innicent for being first to vote for rune i think the heros might of gone for him. i do not suspect kath as much now i didnt know that was the reason she didnt vote on night 1.that is all i have to say good bye.

[Mithalwen]

Farael - you get more suspicious by the second.
Some of us have already pointed out flaws but this is unlikely I feel. It is harder to claim to be Sauron than any other gifted. Sauron has more knowledge than anyone at this point. Anyone claiming to be Sauron tonight has to fake 3 dreams that are plausible with their voting and posting. I personally am not certain of the Dark Lord's identity and will not speculate since you can all read as well as I.

But at the moment I must say, you are heading up my hit list , Farael.

You have consistently attracted much suspicion - no smoke without fire?

[mormegil]

I would welcome the hero being stupid enough to claim to be Sauron. The point is we will loose Sauron soon enough, if this is done, and the Hero will identify him/herself for us. Then we'd be down to one Hero and many known innocent. The idea of the double devouring each day is to kill unknowns faster than the Hero can kill known innocents and we win! However, I agree with Mith those comments of yours moved you up to very high on my list. I say that Farael and Gurthang our the Heros.

The key to my plan is Sauron. He/She knows how much or little he/she knows currently. So if Sauron were to step forward perhaps all gifteds should comply as well. I don't think it will happen today but tomorrow would be ideal. The only problem is what if the Heros get Sauron tonight. A lot of information could be lost. I leave it in Sauron's hands to decide what is best.

Edit: 2000th post

[Boromir88]

I've been scrounging through the records these last days and something with Gurthang just doesn't sit right with me now. Day 1 he randomly votes Rune (which I think everyone's votes early on are pretty much random...if not all the time, it just seems like we're lunging into the dark and hoping our claws find threachurous blood). Anyway, Day 1, Gurthang tosses out a vote for Rune for some reason.

And, what about this, I'm actually going to agree with Nonna's Post 81 where he marks this as odd and just seems like a throw away. Gurthang's reason for voting for Rune (as he explains it), was first he doesn't mind bandwagoning, he doesn't see a problem in it, but he doesn't join in he just throws out a vote. His vote seems like...

1) A hero that doesn't want to get his sword dirty in an innocent's death. Knowing that if he tagged a long it would seem like "bandwagoning" and also he would get his sword fresh with innocent wolf blood.

2) By voting for Rune, if Rune every happens to by eaten (which is the next day as we see) he atleast looks semi-safe. Gurthang's vote was a safe move for a hero to make and I now have my eye set upon him.

Despite my actually agreeing with Nonnacedak it doesn't make him seem any better to me, but Gurthang has quickly moved up my list.

I may be in the minority here, but to me Farael's post really doesn't make him seem more suspicious, it actually seems to be in good intentions and a reasonable question. Of course it would be hard and actually rather stupid for a hero to claim to be Sauron. However, we know how us wolves are in situations like this, when we're attacking villages. I've seen fellow wolves pull off successful disguises of being a gifted. Though it results in their own death eventually, a good guise as a gifted is able to draw them out and get them killed in the process, also just establish total chaos and confusion in the village. So, I don't see why Farael pointing out additional faults in Morm's plan makes him look more suspicious, I actually find it as a reasonable logical thing to point out. What if a hero tried to claim to be Sauron? Grant it, the hero would most likely seal his/her own fate, but a successful attempt could bring out the gifteds and get them killed in the process, as well as split the pack in two and cause chaos.

So my updated, adjusted suspect list, in no particular order:

Nonnacedak
Gurthang
Spawn
Eomer

[Nonnacedak]

At the moment Gurthang is definatly moving up my suspect list. I still suspect Dancing Spawn but because of recent posts I am leaning towards Gurthang. Like I said and B88 reiterated his random switch from me to Rune at the very beginning looks like he was trying to do a quick Hero cover at the beginning by starting a vote for a fellow Hero.

Now B88 you were the only person to vote for me last voting round and you are constantly putting me at the top of your suspect list. You do this but you really never say why I'm your main suspect.... Since your the only one that suspects me and you always just put my name and never try to prove that I'm a Hero I really shouldn't care to much. I guess your just baffeling me.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

At the moment Gurthang is definatly moving up my suspect list. I still suspect Dancing Spawn but because of recent posts I am leaning towards Gurthang. Like I said and B88 reiterated his random switch from me to Rune at the very beginning looks like he was trying to do a quick Hero cover at the beginning by starting a vote for a fellow Hero.

Now B88 you were the only person to vote for me last voting round and you are constantly putting me at the top of your suspect list. You do this but you really never say why I'm your main suspect.... Since your the only one that suspects me and you always just put my name and never try to prove that I'm a Hero I really shouldn't care to much. I guess your just baffeling me.

First off, I'll explain my first day vote. Which probably won't make any difference.

Glirdan had four votes. I didn't suspect him, but I had no reason not to, either. So I just said the bandwagon was fine with me. I had mentioned Nonnacedak early, and this is why you are questioning me. Was it not because you are a scavenger that I questioned you? I accused you for your occupation, as many do on the first day. We really have nothing to go on then, so we randomly accuse and gauge reactions. Nothing about your reaction stuck out to me, so I let it go. Now, since then I have noticed scraps here and there against you (so you are wrong saying Boromir is the only one to suspect you.). Notice that the same has happened to Farael; early I was worried about him(don't know if I posted saying so or not), but found that it was just for him being a werewolf-in-denial. Since I have become suspicious for other reasons.

So, when it came time that I had to vote, I really had nothing. So, rather than not vote or vote for someone who already had votes who I did not suspect, I quickly thought of anything that I could use as an excuse to vote for someone. I remembered Glirdan mentioning Rune's confusing post (which had slightly confused me, also) and so I used that. I jumped on the first thing that came to mind, so if that's a cop-out, then I'm guilty of it.

Now I'm really getting uneasy about all these people suspecting me. Morm and Oddwen have put forth good reasons and are making sense to me (despite being wrong), so I don't hold that against them. Boromir, I'm not sure, he's got a valid point in his post, but I almost feel like he's jumping out because of the other two. Nonna has come out again (he's suspected me before) but he's been silent about me for awhile, and I really feel like he's just coming back now that there's more support against me.

I'm still leaning on Farael, and Nonna is really close up there, too. I'll try to glance through the thread before Night ends, but I'll most likely vote for one of them.