Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Cailín]

Well, we won’t miss that smelly, sneaky, suspicious, sassy little… well I shall keep it friendly, shall I?

It seems like the wolves are on the good side for now, which is a positive thing! What luck they killed their only possible ally! Though I feel rather bad for killing Gil since he was just an innocent, let us be honest, we would have killed him eventually anyway. And I am rather curious to see whether Nilp continues along the same lines.

My guess is that the wolves picked Kath because she did not express any clear opinions and failed to vote alltogether, thus not incriminating anyone and leaving us no wiser than we were yesterday. That could mean that some of us came pretty close to killing a wolf yesterday or just that someone thought this a good opportunity to get rid of a possibly intelligent opponent (ha ha ha!).

I’ll start with a review of the votes and see how the discussion has developed when I wake up tomorrow:

Azaelia – Meneltarmacil (Menel 1)
Alcarillo – Garin (Menel 1, Garin 1)
Nilpaurion Felagund – Nilpaurion (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 1)
Lhunardawen – Nilpaurion (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 2)
Amanaduial – Kuruharan (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 2, Kuru 1)
Gil-Galad – Nilpaurion (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 3, Kuru 1)
Malkatoj – Nilpaurion (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 4, Kuru 1)
Farael – Eluchil (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 4, Kuru 1, Eluchil 1)
Naria – Nilpaurion (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 1)
Rune – Gil Galad (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 1, Gil Galad 1)
TGWBS – Gil Galad (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 1, Gil Galad 2)
Meneltarmacil – Gil Galad (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 1, Gil Galad 3)
Valier – Eluchil (Menel 1, Garin 1, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 2, Gil Galad 3)
Kuruharan – Garin (Menel 1, Garin 2, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 2, Gil Galad 3)
Cailín – Gil Galad (Menel 1, Garin 2, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 2, Gil Galad 4)
Gurthang – Gil Galad (Menel 1, Garin 2, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 2, Gil Galad 5)
Garin – Gil Galad (Menel 1, Garin 2, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 2, Gil Galad 6)
Eluchil – Farael (Menel 1, Garin 2, Nilp 5, Kuru 1, Eluchil 2, Gil Galad 6, Farael 1)

So, a lot of different people appear in the voting list. I think the most crucial votes would be Malkatoj or Naria’s vote for Nilpaurion (almost ensuring a Nilp lynch at that point). TGWBS’ vote for Gil Galad, starting the second bandwagon. And finally, Garin’s vote for Gil, though understandably he wished to break the tie. We can disregard Eluchil’s far too late post.

I’ll read yesterday’s proceedings again tomorrow, but am now getting far too sleepy to make sense.

[Cailín]

Another thing before I leave:

Don't you think it is funny how Meneltarmacil and I both picked up on the tiny clues Kath left in her posts? Though I would suspect Menel for his voting behaviour, this makes me believe he also considered Kath might be the Cobbler - in which case he would never have slain her during the Night.

[Kuruharan]

I’ve combed through Kath’s posts and I think Cailín probably has it right.

My guess is that the wolves picked Kath because she did not express any clear opinions and failed to vote alltogether, thus not incriminating anyone and leaving us no wiser than we were yesterday.

Kath briefly mentioned (I don’t want to use a stronger word than that) malkatoj and Cailín, but not much more than that. I do wonder what the significance could be of Meneltarmacil being the one to publicly mention Kath’s use of the word “cobbler.”

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Don't you think it is funny how Meneltarmacil and I both picked up on the tiny clues Kath left in her posts? Though I would suspect Menel for his voting behaviour, this makes me believe he also considered Kath might be the Cobbler - in which case he would never have slain her during the Night.

So what it seems your saying is that Meneltarmacil is not a wolf...But you fail to mention anything about yourself...Maybe you picked up the hint as well, because you knew what to look for.(Ahem..Wolf).... Excuse me.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Valier

So what it seems your saying is that Meneltarmacil is not a wolf...But you fail to mention anything about yourself...Maybe you picked up the hint as well, because you knew what to look for.(Ahem..Wolf).... Excuse me.

Perhaps this game is messing with my head...because would it be too far out of the picture for him to guess Kath as a cobbler, but then get his wolf buddies on board to eat her anyway. A perfect excuse.

Then again, I've always been a bit paranoid. And that's not to say I believe Menel is a wolf...Nor am I trying to incriminate him or get him lynched...

Just that I'm trying to say that we can't think the way we're expected to think. We have to try to see everything from several sides if we want to catch the wolves before they drive us out of town.

[Meneltarmacil]

Heh heh. They still think I'm a wolf. But I'm not a wolf. I'm an innocent villager. Why would anyone think I'm a wolf? *howls at the moon*

Anyhow, I am quite sorry to see another innocent dead; however, as I said before I was simply trying to keep Nilpaurion Felagund's attempt at suicide from succeeding. I was actually going to vote for Lhunardawen, but since Rune had already voted for Gil-Galad, my other primary suspect, I figured that there was more of a chance that Nilp wouldn't die if I voted for Gil-Galad (TGWBS's vote doesn't count here, as that was a cross-post). That said, I will likely vote for Lhuna today.

I also think that a wolf may have slipped in among the Gil-Galad voters as well as the Nilp ones. I think it very possible there is at least one wolf in each set. The third wolf could have joined one of the bandwagons as well, or could simply have voted for someone else.

As for my pointing out Kath's "hastily cobbled together" comment, I was simply trying to call attention to a potential threat, nothing more.

I'm cross-posting with everyone who posted between Eluchil's post 17 minutes ago, by the way.

EDIT: Guess I'm not cross-posting with anyone, it seems.

[Formendacil]

Meneltarmacil - HIM
Cailin - HER
Azaelia - HER
Farael - HIM
TGWBS - HIM
Garin - HIM
Rune – HIM
Valier - HER
Alcarillo -HIM
Lhunardawen - HER
Gurthang - HIM
Amanaduial - HER
Naria - HER
Nilpaurion Felagund - HIM
Kuruharan - HIM
Eluchil - HIM
Malkatoj – HER

Those dead:

Formendacil, is definitely a HIM
Gil-Galad - HIM
Kath - HER

I may be wrong on one, maximum two of you. If so, I'm sure you'll let me know.

Okay, you may go back to your game.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[malkatoj]

I think the most crucial votes would be Malkatoj or Naria’s vote for Nilpaurion (almost ensuring a Nilp lynch at that point).

If you go back and look at my post, I did edit to say I cross-posted with Gil-Galad. I did not mean to be band-wagoning--as I posted my vote, it wasn't a bandwagon. It was either vote for the suspicious looking person now or don't vote at all.

(Note: I am a student, and my time is therefore limited. With an earlier voting deadline, I'll almost always have to post my votes early and therefore with less evidence or reasoning than others who have time later may have. I'm in EST, by the way.)

Kath is an unexpected kill. She wasn't especially vocal for or against anyone and missed the vote, so I can't see why she'd be killed. Meneltarmacil's vote from yesterday looks the most suspicious, along with the string of votes for Gil-Galad. Did anyone else find it odd that one person voted for him, and suddenly everyone else did too? The first vote for Gil seems to be Rune's in post 127. The next two posts, by TGWBS and Meneltarmacil, are also both votes for Gil. These votes are extremely suspicious and we should be careful around them.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Now, we have to ask ourselves, why did they pick Kath? I seriously doubt it was because she'd pointed a finger at one of them

I'm not sure I agree. I wouldn't put it past anyone to bluff in this situation and kill someone who directly accused them. I'm not sure that's the case, but I'm not clearing the people Kath mentioned.

Right now, I'm watching:

malkatoj - vote yesterday was tacked on after two quick ones from Lhuna and Menel. Seems like trying to seal off the bandwagon as the only choice.
Eluchil - Very jumpy and accusatory. Prettt much stabs back at anyone who mentions him as suspiciou.
Garin - Still isn't quite sitting well. He does talk a lot about the future of the village though, but is that good or bad? I cannot tell.

Although, if Garin is a wolf, I'd look into Nilp actually being one also, which would make sense because of Garin saved Nilp with that last minute vote.

Right now I think I'll vote fore malkatoj, but the Day is young, and much can change.

[Eluchíl]

Originally Posted by Valier

So what it seems your saying is that Meneltarmacil is not a wolf...But you fail to mention anything about yourself...Maybe you picked up the hint as well, because you knew what to look for.(Ahem..Wolf).... Excuse me.

I would have to agree with you. Cailin is quite dodgy. Perhaps too dodgy. Could it have been a slip of the tongue? He let something about his fiendish plots go accidentally and inadvertantly? Curious...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I was bent on killing myself, but somehow, Eru snatched me up from the depths and saved me. I was given a new life, and by the One I will not waste it!

If you believe that, you're seriously lacking all the essential amino acids in your diet. Eat your meat!

I refuse to vote for Nilpaurion, simply on the grounds that he told us to - maybe this is some sort of elaborate double bluff, but I somehow doubt it. Besides, I'm hoping Alice may make an appearance, and she always makes interesting reading. Who knows what hidden secrets can appear in an argument between one man and his subconcious... (Aman)

I'm afraid dear Alice won't be making her appearance in this game. 'twould much too unfair if I were playing as two (or even three) minds in one. Besides, Adam already played the game once, and Alice said she couldn't lie, so she'd be a singularly bad player if she were a wolf.

I would also like to declare my suspicions of Kath, we all know what a lying little sneak she is. (the vertically challenged person)

Interessant . . . sehr interessant . . .

OK, seriously why would I vote for myself? The reasons you could come up with are:

1) Some innate psychological problem (He's suicidal and/or seeking attention)
2) Continuity. (He's done it before, he'll be suspicious if he doesn't do it again.)
3) Good sense (He has not much time to do analyses, so he's voting for someone he's sure is not gifted.)
4) Bluffing (He's a werewolf, trying to act all crazy. But his f(r)iends will protect him/He's a gifted acting like he's not [well, this may be cutting it a bit close.])
5) A Hunter with a target. (Self-explanatory.)
6) A Cobbler (Wait, Kath's the Cobbler!)

Choose all you want. I claim the first three as my reasons. But toDAY, I do have time to do proper analyses of everything you say, so maybe I'll vote more wisely now. Maybe.

Enedwaith, I'm looking hard at Lhunadaga ( ), malkatoj, the male person with a great degree of vertical challenge, Menel (*throws rocks at him*), Gurthang, and Garin for voting anomalies. Although I suspect at least one Werewolf did not join either the Selbstmörderischer or the Gil bandwaggons.

Vy ze vay, it has been decided that I declare myself. Glirdan and I are Shirriffs. What do you mean he's not playing, too? Am I in the right game???

Don't worry. We'll find a way to get him unconcious.

P.S. I dunno, Modacil, Lhuna has always been a 'HIM' to me.