Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

All I am saying
Is give peace a chance
All I am saying
Is give peace a chance

Everybody's talking about. . . (gets the news of the death and Identety of Kath and brakes down in tears)

Wow that was wierd! I have never before expirienced people rally behind me like that! I was sure that Nilp was going to die, then I found out that Gil was innocent and now I really feel bad.

It was actually kind of wierd as I spoke against bandwaggoning and by chance I startet one my self.

Nobody really stands out to me right now, but I will say this: I dont think we should belive Menel to be innocent just because he pointet out the cobbler thing, there is no reason a wolf would not do that.

I will be looking into things and return with my thoughts.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Garin

That is all you have been doing is agreeing with particular people and casting safe votes that do not bring you into suspicion.

I don't thing my vote yesterday was a safe vote.I voted for who I thought was the most defensive and suspisious!

Originally Posted by Garin

So agreeable Valier, always playing safe and weeping the loss of a villager, false tears , perhaps. Plus, I own nothing but black cats to guard my feed from field mice, I mistrust white ones. (Best reason to lynch ever.) Sarcasm again.

I am soooo sorry for weeping for an innocent villager,but he was innocent,and My safe vote was not for him! I know I am not a Wolf! I really want to lynch a real one today!

I'm still undecided as of my vote yet, I am leaning towards Cailin,Garin,Or Lhuna...their posts have been slightly wolfie to me,I will look into it a bit more before school

Oh and aren't black cats sort of shifty?

[Garin]

Rune posted:
Garin: Is very defensive and talks about that he is sticking his neck out by being vokal. He sais he saved his vote incase he needed to save him self, but was he ever in any danger? Sure some had raised suspition and might have votet Garin in the end, but a mather of fact was that he only had one vote and Nilp 5!

Near the end of the voting there were enough left without votes to give me the deciding vote on my fate. Not being suicidal, I waited. I could be wrong, my strength is not with numbers as yours is not with words. However today I feel like 'pulling a Nilp.' Meaning, I don't care today.
My vote will probably go to Valier or Lhuna today, but I am not committed.
This old posting of mine went unnoticed, perhaps ignored.

Quote: Farael
I shall be looking at you, my friends, and I hope you forgive me if I ever suspect the wrong person.

Forgive me but this could be translated as "If my voting pattern looks guilty please ignore it."

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Garin

This old posting of mine went unnoticed, perhaps ignored.

Forgive me but this could be translated as "If my voting pattern looks guilty please ignore it."

I think we all read what is going on pretty carefully and if your comment was ignored then it might have not been a coincidence. I won't excuse myself as on the first nights no-one has anything but gut instinct to go on and sometimes the gut reaction can be wrong.

Still, this Garin has over-extended his welcome and I will not be getting no worms for him no more. See how he says he suspects Valier or Malk, then proceeds to repeat himself on an accusation over me and on his following post, suspects Gurthang who was trying to make the wolves choose who would die(and so possibly shed some light into who they are).

This is far too suspicious for me, as he is starting to accuse people again after I called him on taking it easy on the finger-pointing after sticking his neck too far out (see my second to last post, I don't have the number with me)

No, this sounds all too much like a wolf who's game has been exposed and now is trying to back-track to avoid suspicion

This is why, and taking into account that I have to go NOW else I'll be late for my microbiology... erm I mean, worm hunting, I shall cast my vote for

++Garin

[Cailín]

I find my concern turning to Cailin actually at the moment - her last post was entirely defensive, rather than really properly asking questions into other people's guilt or innocence and helping towards the Wolf Effort. However, as she rightfully points out, it was Kath who really instigated such suspicion - which makes me consider that she is probably not in fact guilty, at least, not if the cobbler knew the identities of the werewolves (did she?) - it doesn't really work that the Cobbler would try to kill those who she was supposed to be helping.

In all honesty, this does barely mean a thing. The Cobbler has no clue who the wolves are so the only thing it proves is that Kath probably did not suspect me.

People who I think - for the moment - innocents (in no particular order):

Amanaduial (I'm actually pretty sure about her)
Azaelia (despite her disturbing silence... she's always an innocent)
Meneltarmacil (because of reasons explained before)
Farael (because of his vote for Garin - by which a wolf would draw unnecessary attention from this game's greatest loudmouth)
Gurthang (because I wish to believe he's innocent)
Rune (he seems to be thinking along the same lines as me)
Nilpaurion Felagund (because of his suicidal tendencies and his recent rehabilitation)
TGWBS (because I fully agree that we might be going in the completely wrong direction)
Lhunardawen (because I also wish to trust her)

People who I am slightly concerned about

Garin (due to his worrisome ability to easily slide between the lines and his strategy that reminds me of a particularly cowardly kid playing ring and run - no offense intended, naturally )
Alcarillo (because of his early votes and general lack of contribution)
Eluchil (because of reasons stated previously)
Kuruharan (just because he's too clever without really proving it)
Malkatoj (silence is always a bad sign)

People I just plainly do not understand

Valier
Naria

I hope I did not miss anyone!

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

People I just plainly do not understand

Valier

I don't get what you don't understand about me? Can I help you out in any way?

I would like to point out Garin's weird behavior,I know others have noticed as well,but I want to state my theory
Why the sudden attack on me? Couldn't find anything else to accuse me for other than my "Hello Kitty" Avatar!

I do admit that the curcumstances surrounding my comment on Cailin,were a bit out there but that was just what I observed from her post.Then someone else votes for her and it looks like I started some what of a bandwagon.But I did not vote for Cailin because she's not quite as suspisous as a few others.
I only want to kill me some wolves!!!

[malkatoj]

Cailin!

Malkatoj (silence is always a bad sign)

Go read the announcements thread, it's nothing I can help.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

Cailin!

Go read the announcements thread, it's nothing I can help.

I already read it, dearie. Don't worry, I did not vote for you and for now have absolutely no intention of doing so. Not that it clears you, or anything.

I don't get what you don't understand about me? Can I help you out in any way?

I just have absolutely no clue where your allegiance lies. The one moment you say this, the other moment it's that. You're quite capricious. Like a kitty.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Rune

Garin...claims that he is taking a chance by beeing vokal, but is it not true that people often suspect those who is more silent and the wolfes would benefit more from killing a silent person who does not suspect anyone and therefor does not leave a trail.

Homm. Right, sorry, I'm going to be awkward: surely the wolves would benefit more from the death of a more vocal person, i.e. someone who was less likely to pose a threat to them by voicing his/her opinions loudly? By this logic, Garin is in fact probably putting himself under more of a threat from the werewolves. I also don't understand your other comment:

I will not be voting for Menel as it will be to no use and to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Bandwagon-age!

Sure, Garin's constant attempts to throw guilt away from himself (right down to the black cat comments) are a little odd, and maybe could be constrused as suspicious - but if you were looking for someone who seems fixed on proving their own innocence, I would say that you needn't look further than the girl who spent an entire post defending herself - yeah, I'm lookin' at you, Cailin. As for her...ah, I just don't know. I don't suspect her strongly enough to vote for her, certainly, so I shall stick with Lhun - but it can all change in the next...crikey, half an hour?!

I don't know, I'm not sure I can really work Garin out either, but I think he's innocent, for the same reasons as Nilpaurion: to be that vocal would be rather foolhardy for a wolf, so I doubt he actually is.

Although I admit the Hello Kitty comments have completely baffled me. And as to whether the bust of one of the most mysterious Roman Emporers has any significance...
...yeah, grasping at straws.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

OK I have made up my mind. I will not be voting for Menel as it will be to no use and to give him the benefit of the doubt. Therefor I will vote Garin


++Garin

[Garin]

Valier:Why the sudden attack on me? Couldn't find anything else to accuse me for other than my "Hello Kitty" Avatar!

I think you are playing safe and making non-commital votes, I just wanted to see your reaction, really. Someone who is in the limelight sometimes wants to spread the 15 minutes of fame around. As for the Avatar comment, I truly am feverishly ill today and have stayed home and had two black cats raising hell and not letting me rest. So it was an impulsive thing.
Fear not, it is pretty obvious I won't be voting for you today.

[Meneltarmacil]

Alright, I'm back. As for why Lhuna has not cleared herself in my eyes, I think that regardless of Nilpaurion Felagund's identity *heh heh*, she should have realized that he was just following his usual pattern. She would know better than to vote for him...unless, of course, she *heh heh* thought others would follow... And besides Gil-Galad, she was the only experienced one to vote for Nilp.

I also find your reasoning against Valier to be sound; however, I'm going to most likely vote for Lhuna. And booby-trap my house some more...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Menel

she should have realized that he was just following his usual pattern.

But should you not realize that things like this angers Luhna, she (like my self) often wants to vote wayne when he is just beeing him self. So acctually Luhna is just beeing her self, should she change just because Nilp is acting wierd as ussual ?

[the guy who be short]

Menel's logic holds firm.

++Lhuna

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Hmmm. Lots has happened while I've been at school.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Azaelia (despite her disturbing silence... she's always an innocent)

Well. Thanks for the vote of confidence... As for the silence, as I have said many times over, I am a student and therefore have school and homework to deal with five out of seven days a week...and work two days a week. So I have few openings in my schedule. But I've been through all that before.

However, to take a Nilp-ish turn, I don't want to be considered innocent just because I "always" am. That's not reason enough. I am, of course, innocent, as I have been in the past...but I don't want that to be the only reasoning behind the idea, because you could, for all you know, be letting a wolf slip through your fingers. (Of course, I'm not one, so that point is moot, anyway).

Ok... Enough about me. Let's talk about the rest of you. I'm not inclined to suspect people on grounds of silence alone, as I know what it's like not to have the time to get online. What I have a harder time dealing with is input that just serves to muddy the waters, make things more confusing, or is walking the line between meaningless and nonsensical. So for now, I'm not going to suspect Malkatoj on grounds of silence.

I also have reconsidered my suspicion of Menel, on the grounds that I have re-read my musings about killing Kath to appear innocent, and I think that was really rather stupid of me. Ah well. It made sense when I wrote it.

Cailin is a little suspicious to me, but I feel inclind to think, for now, that Kath expressing suspicion of her probably means she is not a wolf.

I feel rather suspicious towards Valier, because she's posted some, but I still can't get a good handle on her. She agrees a lot (which isn't a bad thing necessarily, as some people do have good ideas), but we're not getting much new material from her. This could be simple inexperience talking...then again, it could be something more. It is also partially instinct, and I can't say why. Sometimes, you just get a feeling about the way someone's playing.

Garin sends up a red flag, too. I feel like he's playing cleverly, but there's something off, if you know what I mean. He sounds reasonable, but he seems to be playing things close to the chest.

Naria is a concern simply because I can't get a good sense of where she's coming from...I'm content to let it slide for now, since she also hasn't posted much...but if time goes by and still I feel like something is missing, she may get a vote from me.

That all being said, I think I am going to vote for Valier, but I am going to wait and see what else develops for a while.

ETA: Cross-posted with Rune and TGWBS.

[Kuruharan]

This list was compiled after post 205, so it is probably a little dated now.

Alcarillo - Cailín post 163
Lhunardawen – Eluchil post 168
Amanaduial – Lhunardawen post 169
Nilpaurion – Cailín post 172
Farael – Garin post 195
malkatoj – Lhunardawen post 196
Rune – Garin post 200
TGWBS – Lhunardawen post 204

Totals
Cailín-2
Eluchil-1
Lhunardawen-3
Garin-2

(Somebody please correct me if I’ve made a mistake.)

With regard to Meneltarmacil’s argument against Lhuna, I’m uncomfortable building a case on how people react to Nilp. That is why (at this moment) I don’t care for the idea of lynching Lhuna. Nilp’s so strange that he beggars rational reaction. Even if we lynch him and he proves to be a wolf, I’m not entirely sure we could tie him securely to anybody else (which sounds like a darn good werewolf strategy, now that I mention it.)

At this moment I’m not sure I want to inject another candidate into the mix. We’ve already got four with votes and a possible fifth. Whatever happens, I don’t think we want more than one person to be lynched and if the voting stays close that could happen.

Cailín-I’m not particularly suspicious of her myself. Unfortunately, I can’t think of a real reason for this. If she is lynched, we might learn a bit.

Eluchil-Has largely managed to avoid notice. That worries me.

Lhunardawen-I don’t particularly want her to be lynched today. I don’t find the case against her compelling. She wasn’t the only one to vote against Nilp yesterday…

Garin- I’ve always been suspicious of Garin. He’s always seemed a bit crafty to me. That makes me nervous. If I vote for one of these four, he’d be the one I’d vote for.

EDIT: Surprise, surprise, surprise. Nobody else had voted after all.