Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Amanaduial the archer]

Oh, meh, I'm off to play the cello, and I won't be back probably until after the deadline, so I hereby make my vote with quarter of an hour to go of the Day:

++Naria

EDIT: Crosspost with Kuru and Modacil. And yes, Kuru, Malka did vote yesterday.

[Gurthang]

Amana, if you are trying to say you are the Hunter, you really should just say it. It's almost like you were saying it in a round about way. If you are, say so. There's not time left.

[Gurthang]

I dare not wait longer.

++TGWBS

Let's hope he's a wolf.

Gifteds, good luck toNight. Wolves, crappy luck to you.

[Gurthang]

Kuru, if I die toNight, look at Amana's second to last post. That longer one.

[Formendacil]

As the day drew to a close, the ballots were being counted. The Guy Who Be Short, who had been among Naria’s greatest opponents before Cailín had made clear that she was not a Hunter, seemed to have drawn the short straw of the day.

“I’m telling you,” he insisted, as they began to encircle him, and prevent his escape, “this is pointless! I may be misguided, but I’m innocent.”

Seeing the villagers massed around, The Guy Who Be Short took a long, deep breath, clearly sizing up his odds- odds which no sane man would have bothered attempting. But desperation seized him, and The Guy Who Be Short knocked over Farael, and tried to make a run for it.

As with Garin’s attempted escape, the entire village chased after him, and the speedier ones among them were soon catching up. Only one villager didn’t give chase. Amanaduial coolly drew an arrow from her quiver, set it to her bowstring, raised her longbow, drew back on the string, and with a faint whistling, the arrow sprang forward, taking down The Guy Who Be Short in the back. He dropped like a lead weight to the ground.

“I can’t believe… you didn’t believe… me,” he gasped in his last moments.

“Can’t believe it?” said Meneltarmacil, “he certainly earned his death!”

“I agree,” said Alcarillo. “He’s as mad as a hatter.”

“He was a hatter,” said Azaelia, dryly.

“That’s why it was funny,” said Alcarillo.

“Well, he hasn’t changed a bit,” said Lhuna, “and I’m pretty sure he’s dead. I guess he’s just an INNOCENT VILLAGER.”

“He’s still an idiot,” said Gurthang.

“Let’s not speak ill of the dead,” said Naria. “At least we can give him a proper burial- and let’s get it done before sundown if we can…”

And so the villagers of Dol-in-Gaurhoth gathered up the body of the dead Guy Who Be Shot and buried him beneath the hanging tree in the village square. On a slat of wood, they wrote his epitaph. The top of the board, whereon was written his name, was lost, and so he is only known to history as “The Guy”.

“Here Lies The Mad Hatter.
May he rest in peace,
Troubled no more by Hare-y beasts.”

Day 4 is now over, Night 5 has begun. Posting should be over.

I will be needing names from the Seer, Ranger, and Werewolves.

Day 5 will begin and end at the normal times.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Kuruharan]

Malka did vote yesterday.

That's right. I remember that now. *Whew* we're not going to have another summary execution toDAY, thank goodness.

[Alcarillo]

Swayed by Gurthang's words, I shall vote for

++The Guy Who Be Short

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, look...I found a way to be back!

So, Aman, at least that makes things a little less confusing now: you're not the Hunter. Now the only thing that confuses us regarding you is your innocence or lycanthropy, whichever the case.

Honestly, I'm really not sure whether lynching you is the right thing to do. We can blame your being inexperienced for your suspicion of Naria, but then again you can be smart enough to hide behind the same explanation.

As for the issue concerning Kuruharan: Despite his claims of being incapable of playing such a risky game were he a wolf, don't you really think he can pull that off? If my memory serves me right, there was once a certain village called Loveland where a certain Lhunatic and her fellow villagers managed to fall under the control of a very, very cunning werewolf named Eomer - who ended up single-handedly destroying the entire village.

What's your point, you ask? It's just that if it happened once, it can certainly happen again. And I'm sure you all agree with me that this Eomer is not the only wolf who could play as boldly and smartly as that.

Whether you agree with me or not, Master Dwarf, you hold a certain amount of control in this village; I'm sure that I will be proved right in saying this when Aman ends up being lynched toDay. I normally don't have a problem with that, but the problem here is that we aren't even certain on which side you are playing for.

One thing that very slightly worries me about my suspicion of you is that you defended me early on during the game. Now if you had me pegged as an innocent or possibly as a gifted - perhaps even as the Seer - then you should have killed me earlier. But then again, you could just be latching onto a certain known innocent (assuming you are a wolf) to get the chance to use the words "I told you so," and then claim that you previously had the idea that she was a gifted once she declares so.

I guess for this I'll receive another exasperated tirade. But I wonder why you seem all to eager to stop any ideas of suspicion against you. You see, all of us have to undergo some questioning at one time or another. You stand out to me for the reason that whenever someone expresses doubts about you, you answer irritatedly (it seems) and dismiss the idea very easily. It's as if you don't want anyone suspecting you too thoroughly, so before they have the chance to scrutinize you, you tell them to back off - with exasperation (again, so it seems). That's how they came to me, and I find the thought rather troubling.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I do not wish to disregard Rune, Farael and Zali so easily, though I believe them innocent. I'm rather surprised no one has yet fought this assumption, while a wolf might definitely have tried to cast suspicion on any of them.

Not that I'm defending them but it's possible that they really are innocent, and the wolves don't want an innocent being lynched who could lead directly to them. Perhaps they think that there's already enough confusion in this village to hide them.

But you're right, of course, in saying that we shouldn't just forget about them.

[Lhunardawen]

Now I'm afraid I really must go. Good night, villagers. Bad night, werewolves.

And if I die tomorrow Night, well... please save the village. And kill the wolves.

[Cailín]

You make me doubt myself again, Lhuna, which is not very nice. Anyway - I just would find it unfair to vote for Kuru because of good behaviour (aside from being arrogant and exasparated) while we don't even consider Rune, Zali and Farael - just because they are not cunning enough?

And though you are right and this Eomer you speak of (by the way - it is rather remarkable how often he has been mentioned in a game he does not even participate in ) is indeed a great example of low cunning and exceptionally bold strategies, this does not automatically mean we're facing the same thing here. It would also be silly to keep coming up with rather far-fetched theories while the guilty ones are obviously right in front of us!

I wish I knew for sure, but I think we shall likely find our wolves among the following people: Kuruharan, Amanaduial, Meneltarmacil and Malkatoj. I'm starting to regret we're not able to pull a double lynch.

Edit: Cross-posted with Farael.

[Kuruharan]

but the problem here is that we aren't even certain on which side you are playing for.

Truly this statement is the epitome of balance and equity since you don’t know which side anybody else is playing for either, except for Alcarillo. As for why I thought you were the Seer, you said things that made me think so. I don’t have time to go back and find them now. I became confused because Nilp suddenly changed his behavior and started acting rational. It was possible he was the Seer and was trying to discreetly let us know something important. I thought it had to be one of the two of you. I was right. Unfortunately, I was convinced that Nilp was pretending to be the Seer while being a wolf. However, if he had proven to be the Seer I would have been convinced you were a wolf. That was my theory that DAY, and you can probably appreciate why I didn’t want to say too much about it at the time. Alas, he was neither the Seer or a werewolf…he was just strange.

all to eager to stop any ideas of suspicion against you.

Because they are a waste of time and could be rather unfortunate for the village.

Anyway, I hope you will excuse my “defending” myself, since I already promised I wouldn’t. But I thought it was fair to answer your question about why I decided you were the Seer.

Anyway,

Amanaduial

In light of the analysis of my Hunter position, I'm pretty much beggared no matter what I say, right? If I say I'm the Hunter, we have a duel, and bearing in mind Kuru's witch-hunt, I'll probably end up dead; yet if I say I'm not the Hunter, it may seem that I'm merely playing up to Lhuna's words:

-and-

So if I say I'm not, hey, I'll probably end up dead. Again. So I guess you're just going to have to believe me when I reply: No. Actually, I'm not the Hunter. I'm not convinced that Naria is, but I'm not.

If you are innocent why would you even begin to beat around the bush here? Cailín’s behavior seems much more likely to be an innocent here because she instantly denied being the Hunter and did not do a song and dance routine like this about it.

I'm starting to regret we're not able to pull a double lynch.

Yes, at the moment I think that would solve a lot of problems.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I see that Luhna has allready made an exelent case against Menel, what I don't understand is that Luhna can keep briniging this up and you just collective chooses to ignore it.

Now lets look at Menel's voting history.

Meneltarmacil – Gil-Galad, No Vote, Nilp, TGWBS

He seems to vote for what is popular, exept for when we are about to kill off a wolf!

Then there were the whole cobbler thing. To claim that Menel could not be a wolf because of this is rubbish. Sure Menel was the one that pointet it out, but this means that all became aware of it. We can conclude that the wolves decidet to kill the person wich had the greatest chances of being the cobbler. Now this could just be to throw us off, but it would make more sence if it was to create a cover for Menel.

A thing that I have noticed about Menel is that he has been acting different than he normaly does. He has not been as helpfull as I usually find him being and then there was the whole howling thing. I have not could decide if he was endeed a wolf or a giftet trying to stay alive for as long as posibel. I now belive he is a Wolf.

Now on to Malkatoj.

malkatoj – Nilp, Lhuna, TGWBS, No Vote

Has been absent for long periods and as we can see never votet for a wolf. All around a very sneeky person. What reson do we have to keep her in the village?

I still think her vote for Nilp is suspisios. . .

I will vote for either of these, I dont really care who.

[Naria]

I'm going to be quick here for I have app't all aft. I agree with most of the analyses done on [B]AmanB]. I would like to thank her, however for saying that she isn't the Hunter- saving us all a big headache(regarding a senseless duel between her and I). I have suspicions about her and Malka which have pretty much been analysed enough for me. But since I don't really have too much to go on in regards to Malka-her far and few between posts-and I'm running out of time to do this post. I am on the fence with both of them but more inclined to go with Aman, since I'm not convinced that she believes in my innocence(from yesterday's vote & post and today's posts)and would gladly watch me hang. I might be wrong but her sudden behaviour towards me has me concerned, as it should. Don't know if any of this made sense to any of you, It does to me and I will explain later if I'm still alive when I return. But I need to make my vote know. If I get lynched today, Apprentice please do your best to save the village.

++Amanaduial

[Amanaduial the archer]

NB: this post was formulated before Naria made her post - cello lesson...

I am actually mildly astonished by the reasoning in the past Day: I mean, the sheer irrationality of some of the 'arguments'...

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I'm sure that I will be proved right in saying this when Aman ends up being lynched toDay.

Good lord, woman, I'm sure I don't like the sound of that 'when'! Kuru still has more votes than me - but then, maybe that's why he's getting quite so defensive (for example in the way that he attacks anyone who comments on him at all - for example, #312 when he comments on someone being 'ever more suspicious' when they find him suspicious. Surely this isn't quite right). But as I said previously, I agree with you on this point, Lhuna: whether wolf or not, Kuru is definitely attempting to pull the strings. He's proved that he's smart enough to stay alive so far, but he makes me uneasy, and not simply because of the personal tirades that he keeps launching at me which seem actually slightly reminiscent of Garin's behaviour earlier in the game (the behaviour that got him lynched, incidentally), but also because of his slightly peculiar wording in places. Yes, I accuse you of over analysing me, Kuru, but I'm afraid I must take a moment to look at Kuru's behaviour... He has probably, so far, been the most commanding character in the game. Sure, Gurthang was influential - but he didn't go as far as to start suggesting, and I quote, 'orders' for the other game characters. And the 'I told you so' nature once he's proved right - very keen to make sure that other villagers know that, e.g. he backed Lhuna:

I thought so. And if you don’t believe me, please go back and reread how I always tried to defend you but not be too obvious about it

It is just like a wolf's cover: Kuru protected Lhuna and was then trying to use it to his full advantage. If he were a wolf, he'd know she was an innocent - this total conviction into someone's innocence does seem to come from a certain definite knowledge, and the wolves (and Seer after a dream) are the only ones who could have that definite knowledge on anyone in the village. Where other people seem at least moderately uncertain about the other villagers, Kuru makes definitive statements about people that seem to come from a certain knowledge about them. This worries me rather.

He also seems to have a very developed gameplan - everything is set out, if he has a theory, he may say that he will 'wait' before revealing it, he made strong suggestions as to exactly who the Seer should dream of and the Ranger should protect, strongly urging the villagers to act one way or the other... It's all so manipulative. And it does sound somewhat like the words of a desperate man, unsubtle as this would be in the game of werewolf.

Ah, Rune resurfaces! However, there are still two seriously unknown quantities: Azaelia and Malkatoj. Farael too, actually: his most recent post puzzled me in that it made no attempt at reasoning behind his vote (although at least he accepted this), and instead simply followed Kuruharan's 'advice'. Hmm. Firstly, I think this nicely highlights the point Lhuna made (and which I made earlier in this post) about his manipulation: apparently, it's working. Also, why does Farael not make an attempt at reasoning? Following in the highest degree, and it worries me: makes these two seem like allies. I don't, however, think I've really seen enough of Farael's posts: generally, they're rather short, and I haven't currently time to go back over the whole thread. But I only have a slight twitching of unease against him: it isn't enough, certainly, to form a vote.

Azaelia and Malkatoj....Azaelia, I have absolutely no idea about. Totally unknown. Malkatoj...hmm, like, apparently, several others on this thread, my suspicion of her is really to do with her absense, although I concede that this is really hardly fair. Maybe she's hiding in order to avoid incriminating her - Malka is new to werewolf I believe, like myself. But I don't really think this is that likely - I mean, yeah, on the one hand, 'prevention is better than cure', but on the other hand, some sort of defence would surely be better - I'm not sure I can make a full judgement on her either from her posts, which is why I am slightly surprised at the amount of suspicion surrounding her, but I will be keeping an eye on her. If I survive the Day

Oh, and as a final remark, I should just like to comment on Naria:

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Then toDAY Amanaduial says she thinks Naria is at least “innocent” (without explaining herself), which in effect means she now thinks Naria is the Hunter. This is downright incriminating given her behavior yesterDAY.

(I’m afraid Naria doesn’t quite count as “confirmed” even though I’m perfectly prepared to believe her).

Yes. Aware of that. Don't mean to come off curt, there, but I would have thought that it was fairly obvious from yesterday that I held reservations about Naria - with time, bearing in mind no-one has come forward and people seem quite prepared to believe her today, I'm coming to accept that suspicion around her is certainly dying down at a very rapid rate, although I'm not entirely convinced - I did not say that I thought she was innocent for sure. But when I said...

Originally Posted by Amanaduial the Archer

Naria isn't actually proven to be innocent: we only have her word on her being a Hunter. I mean, yeah, very likely, but not completely without doubt.

...I was actually contradicting Cailin's post prior to that in which she stated Naria to be the Hunter and a known innocent. My doing it in these words was, probably mostly, to appear less adversarial - I don't believe in hacking people off at the knees every time they make a statement that I don't agree with, although apparently some villagers do.

And as to when you commented on, I quote, "I think you are quite right to demand an answer from Amanaduial about her alleged Hunterness (I personally don't believe it)" - well, actually I never alleged it. I didn't contradict it because when Gurthang first brought up the point, I didn't see the point, it didn't seem like a reasonable concern, more a spur-of-the-moment and rather dramatic post - and then Lhuna brought it up again and it was followed up - and answered as soon as I could that I was not. I never said I was the Hunter, I never knowingly even hinted that I was any such thing - so please don't try to turn it against me, or even use it to promote my death. You wish we had double lynchings? I bet you do: take two innocent villagers out in one fell swoop and even up the odds a bit for you and your ally, whoever he or she is.

If you are innocent why would you even begin to beat around the bush here? Cailín’s behavior seems much more likely to be an innocent here because she instantly denied being the Hunter and did not do a song and dance routine like this about it.

Call it a disclaimer! I was pointing out what would no doubt be pointed out after I said I wasn't the Hunter, very likely by you. Frankly, Kuru, your world-weary exasperation is beginning to wear a bit thin on my patience and the thread of my suspicion is thickening with it: it just seems to be part of a cover.

So for now, despite my worries on Malka (and my uncertainty on other players who I have no time to comment on in any detail right now), today's vote is for:

++Kuruharan

My, that was disjointed...