Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Cailín]

Oh no.

We lost our Ranger… and got a new one. And though I am happy Lhuna is alive, this means we shall have no reliable Seer dreams anymore if we don’t manage to catch a wolf. And it is getting more perilous.

I thought Kuruharan was innocent and should probably have sticked with my impulse. However, I am grateful we never trusted him, for otherwise the wolves would surely have gone after him and instead of some nice dwarven meat would have found a powerful ally.

We have nine people left, of which we know two definite innocents. The new Ranger can protect Lhuna again, and will have to do so. We need to keep her alive as long as possible. Naria will thus probably die toNight and there’s no way we can stop this. However, she will be able to take someone down with her. We have to carefully consider who that is going to be. It may absolutely not be the new Ranger! I’d sooner offer myself as a shoot-ee. But I personally prefer it to be one of the following: Meneltarmacil, Amanaduial or Malkatoj.

Lhuna – can you tell us anything?

So, we basically have two wolves versus seven innocents. For at least two more nights, assuming the wolves do not find the new Ranger, we have two known innocents. This, however, is not enough. We have to find ourselves a wolf and rather toDay than tomorrow.

The people left:

Meneltarmacil – Definitely on our to-lynch list, I suppose. Despite the arguments he offers in his defence, we cannot trust him. The case Lhuna made against him yesterday is not flawless, but interesting enough.
Cailin – Cannot say anything about me other than the things I’ve said before.
Azaelia – I have doubts concerning her. Yet I still believe her to be innocent.
Farael – I more or less trust Farael, though later votes are somewhat strange.
Rune – Also one I consider innocent.
Lhunardawen – Beloved Seer.
Amanaduial – I shall say it again: Amanaduial may be innocent, but I don’t trust her. Absolutely not.
Naria – Much Questioned Hunter. Hunter, though, no doubt.
Malkatoj – Silent and sneaky, none contributive. A dangerous possible wolf.

What will analysis yet do for us? I don’t know. Tomorrow, however, I have the entire day off and therefore will no doubt provide ample far fetched theories to keep us confused and puzzled for a few more days. And hopefully, we will finally spot the wolves hiding among us.

Good Night, dears!

((Ai, Form, not liking the new times here. Know it cannot be helped, though))

[Amanaduial the archer]

Yeah, the times could be a small problem for me too, but not much I guess: it just means a shortened Night which, as it's uneventful, isn't a problem, and that I won't be present probably for most of that extra 6 and a half hours... Hope your schedule sorts itself out for the better, O Mighty Moderacil.

Ouchie...looks like our advantage when the wolves took out their own Cursed one two nights ago has somewhat been weighed out in that we've just lost our most important asset: the Ranger. Seems that revealing his innocence may have been just a little too revealing, Lhuna, kinda made him an obvious target for the wolves, whoever they are on the game: saved him from the villagers but opened him riiight up to the wolves, rather a double edged sword if that's the correct phrase - still, at least we have an apprentice to replace him. Now for Eru's sake, keep your nose clean and don't give yourself away as well!

Cailin, I agree with your logic in basis, but am not sure that the Seer would actually be the best one to protect tonight - surely the Ranger is a more important asset? But also more risky: we know for sure that Lhuna is Seer, whilst anyone of the rest of us could now be a wolf (bar, we still assume for the basis of clinging onto what we have, Naria), so at least Lhuna would be a sure one to protect. And with so few people left, she must only have a few people left to ask about, which is another plus when there are so few people remaining in the game. Tough dilemma for the new Ranger there... Lhuna, again I'm with Cailin: any news?

Hmm. Now onto the rest of the village... Unfortunately, I am getting more and more lost by the minute: my main suspects keep being proved innocent, thus making me feel a bit silly and also rather useless. Sorry... Certainly compiling a case for today may take a little longer: I want to get one right toDay, there's no time for any more mistakes...

Here is a very preliminary rundown on my feelings

Cailin: I know I questioned this as being a reasonable way of thinking earlier, but I have actually got a feeling about Cailin that she's probably innocent. I don't know: maybe it's because she is so very constant - her prescence is somehow somewhat reasurring. Watch that backfire if she turns out to be a wolf. But as her feelings on me have reversed themselves, mine are rather doing the same: I can't help getting actually less suspicious of her. But like I say, that is only a feeling - lordy knows, she could still be a wolf

Lhuna: Well, she ain't even a consideration, for obvious reasons. 'Beloved seer' indeed.

Meneltarmacil: hmm. General consensus seems to be that this is a guilty party, and indeed, I am entirely uncertain about Meneltarmacil, the most recent considerations in my mind being those arguments rather convincingly presented by Lhuna, and the fact that, actually, Menel has hardly defended himself. At all. And he seems even more determined (even than me! ) to play devil's advocate to himself, which is, I agree, a little puzzling. Worried about this one: if I had a 'to lynch' list, as Cailin puts it there, he'd be pretty darn high up.

Amanaduial: Not sure I can give an entirely objective view on this one...

Naria: Hunter, allegedly, and I'm afraid I'm just having to come to accept this one, although it is not yet fact in my mind. But I can't really find anything solid against her, leastways not enough to make a vote on.

Malkatoj: her behaviour could certainly be considered erratic, but I didn't consider it quite strange enough to review particularly until general suspicion seemed to grow - I must say, I was not immediately struck by her oddness myself. Problem: her general absence makes it difficult to determine whether her behaviour is in fact a result of wolfishness or simply harriedness over a lack of time. However, I will have to maybe do myself a wee bit of studying as to the Nature of Malka over the next Day, see whether I can make up my mind either way.

Farael: I don't think I'm currently awake enough to post anything coherent concerning my views on him. Schleeeeepy... Like Malka, I will need to some some review-age tomorrow. Ditto to Rune really, although the latter is far less likely to be a wolf, I need to have a look - see if I can dredge something up from the posts...

Azaelia: a totally unknown quantity. Absolutely no idea about this one.

And now I must sleeeeeep. Good wolf-catching to you all then, until I return later.

[Meneltarmacil]

I am not guilty of wolvishness. I'm serious, I'm not a wolf.

Amanduial the archer on the other hand, bears watching, mostly due to her frantic defense of Garin.

I'll post later when I've completed some work I have to get done.

[Farael]

I am afraid I cannot say for sure that I will be available today (game day) as I'm fairly tired now and I have a busy day tomorrow which might not end until late in the evening, so keep that in mind if I do not respond to anyone's criticism.... now on to the suspecting

We know now that Kuruharan was the cursed, and he made a big case against Amanduial... now, I guess someone (probably Amanduial herself) will say that we cannot trust him, as he was the cursed, yet what would the cursed's goal be?

From the beginning Kuruharan was very vocal and loud, so I would say he was trying to get noticed by the wolves.... and what would make him liable to be devoured by night? Pointing his cursed finger at a real wolf. So I say, Kuruharan might have been on to something when he argued against Amanduial and I think we should get rid of her tonight.

Furthermore, she STILL does not trust Naria, who by the time I believe everyone has accepted her to be the Hunter (everyone but Amanduial that is) and I still find her not-complete denial of being the Hunter a little fishy.

She is still the top suspect in my list and even if at the moment I'm far too tired to make a good review of her posts, I'd like to remind you all to keep an eye on her. With Kuruharan gone she might be the most vocal today.

(Note: Please Amanduial forgive me if I said something that sounded even remotely offensive... not meant at all, I'm just expressing my suspicions)

[Farael]

This is really scary.... not only I read Amanduial's answer on the game thread but also Moderacil's description and for some reason I still thought that the Cursed knew he was cursed... disregard my first comment about him wanting to be caught, but even more so, he probably thought Amanduial was a wolf anyway. So I guess my point remains.

Sorry if my previous post got confusing, I guess I'm too tired

[malkatoj]

Farael, I'm under the impression (correct me if I'm wrong) that the Cursed does not know that he's cursed unless the wolves kill him. Sorry to shoot down your idea, and sorry again if I'm wrong.

Mostly dead right now and still have an essay to write, but I'll have some coherent thoughts put together by voting time.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm sure the weariness you all feel is not just the result of the dreaded sickness called RL (something similar to timezones, I suppose), but also of the peril we continue to face after almost a week. I would have made you all a special lembas potion pizza to keep you going until just a few more Days but alas! I myself am very tired already. I'm almost hoping that I was the one killed instead of Alcarillo, just so I could finally have my rest for all eternity. Speaking of our dear Ranger, I had a feeling I shouldn't reveal his innocence for fear of the werewolves going after him, but I felt that I have no choice. Thank Eru for the Apprentice, and I would ask them to stay as hidden as possible without attracting suspicion from the rest of us. If we are about to lynch you, I guess we have no choice but to allow you to speak up.

Now, we must forget all weariness for the meantime. We have work to do.

Despite the obvious relief we feel that we lynched Kuruharan before the werewolves got to him, we shouldn't forget that he's still an innocent as far as we're all concerned. With that said I'm sure at least one of the wolves voted for him. Perhaps the other one voted for Aman, but I shall speak of that in a minute.

I now realized that it was a good thing I haven't dreamt of Kuru after all, or else the werewolves would have gotten to him as soon as I revealed his innocence. And all throughout the game I've been wondering why the werewolves never attacked him in the first place. They knew he was innocent, and so they should have killed him right away knowing he would make a formidable foe. I think that uncovering possible motives for not killing him on a Night will take us a step closer to finding out the wolves. Any ideas?

The voting went this way yesterDay:
Zali - Kuru
Lhuna - Kuru
Farael - Aman
Naria - Aman
Aman - Kuru
Cailin - Kuru
malka - Menel
Kuru - Aman
Menel - Aman
Rune and Alcarillo - no vote

If Aman really is a wolf, I guess Menel's vote incriminates himself. With Kuru already having four votes cast against him, he was the sure lynchee for the Day, and Menel could have just voted for Aman without really endangering her. However, there were at least fifteen minutes left when Menel voted, so it was still possible for Aman to be lynched.

Now consider that Rune did not vote yesterDay. We could believe his RL excuse, or maybe we could not. But just one thing I have to ask you, Rune, is this:

People I belive innocent:

Luhna and only Luhna.

While it felt good to me at that time to know that someone completely believes in my innocence, now I find myself wary. How were you able to ascertain my innocence when I was pretty much being suspected by everybody?

At this point I am inclined to think Cailin, Farael, Naria, and Zali innocent. Rune has some questions to answer, but minus that I still think he's innocent. malka is completely unknown and must be assumed suspicious until proven innocent. Those on our urgent lynch list are Menel and Aman, and I'm more prepared to lynch Menel than Aman toDay.

[Lhunardawen]

Look at this...our wolves have committed a stupidity.

If they have killed Naria the Hunter last Night, Hunter would have been our Apprentice's role now. And with me and Alcarillo proven innocents, they would have killed the two of us one after the other, with no one but the Hunter left as a gifted.

I was completely convinced that our wolves are brilliant or at least very good in hiding, but now I see that they're not really very bright at all.

But look again...they could have been worried that Naria's huntee would be one of them, and so decided not to kill her. And who is Naria's most-likely huntee last Night? Aman. After all, she voted for her.

Then again, this could be a way for them to set Aman up.

Just something for you guys to think about.