Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Farael]

I am afraid I cannot say for sure that I will be available today (game day) as I'm fairly tired now and I have a busy day tomorrow which might not end until late in the evening, so keep that in mind if I do not respond to anyone's criticism.... now on to the suspecting

We know now that Kuruharan was the cursed, and he made a big case against Amanduial... now, I guess someone (probably Amanduial herself) will say that we cannot trust him, as he was the cursed, yet what would the cursed's goal be?

From the beginning Kuruharan was very vocal and loud, so I would say he was trying to get noticed by the wolves.... and what would make him liable to be devoured by night? Pointing his cursed finger at a real wolf. So I say, Kuruharan might have been on to something when he argued against Amanduial and I think we should get rid of her tonight.

Furthermore, she STILL does not trust Naria, who by the time I believe everyone has accepted her to be the Hunter (everyone but Amanduial that is) and I still find her not-complete denial of being the Hunter a little fishy.

She is still the top suspect in my list and even if at the moment I'm far too tired to make a good review of her posts, I'd like to remind you all to keep an eye on her. With Kuruharan gone she might be the most vocal today.

(Note: Please Amanduial forgive me if I said something that sounded even remotely offensive... not meant at all, I'm just expressing my suspicions)

[Farael]

This is really scary.... not only I read Amanduial's answer on the game thread but also Moderacil's description and for some reason I still thought that the Cursed knew he was cursed... disregard my first comment about him wanting to be caught, but even more so, he probably thought Amanduial was a wolf anyway. So I guess my point remains.

Sorry if my previous post got confusing, I guess I'm too tired

[malkatoj]

Farael, I'm under the impression (correct me if I'm wrong) that the Cursed does not know that he's cursed unless the wolves kill him. Sorry to shoot down your idea, and sorry again if I'm wrong.

Mostly dead right now and still have an essay to write, but I'll have some coherent thoughts put together by voting time.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm sure the weariness you all feel is not just the result of the dreaded sickness called RL (something similar to timezones, I suppose), but also of the peril we continue to face after almost a week. I would have made you all a special lembas potion pizza to keep you going until just a few more Days but alas! I myself am very tired already. I'm almost hoping that I was the one killed instead of Alcarillo, just so I could finally have my rest for all eternity. Speaking of our dear Ranger, I had a feeling I shouldn't reveal his innocence for fear of the werewolves going after him, but I felt that I have no choice. Thank Eru for the Apprentice, and I would ask them to stay as hidden as possible without attracting suspicion from the rest of us. If we are about to lynch you, I guess we have no choice but to allow you to speak up.

Now, we must forget all weariness for the meantime. We have work to do.

Despite the obvious relief we feel that we lynched Kuruharan before the werewolves got to him, we shouldn't forget that he's still an innocent as far as we're all concerned. With that said I'm sure at least one of the wolves voted for him. Perhaps the other one voted for Aman, but I shall speak of that in a minute.

I now realized that it was a good thing I haven't dreamt of Kuru after all, or else the werewolves would have gotten to him as soon as I revealed his innocence. And all throughout the game I've been wondering why the werewolves never attacked him in the first place. They knew he was innocent, and so they should have killed him right away knowing he would make a formidable foe. I think that uncovering possible motives for not killing him on a Night will take us a step closer to finding out the wolves. Any ideas?

The voting went this way yesterDay:
Zali - Kuru
Lhuna - Kuru
Farael - Aman
Naria - Aman
Aman - Kuru
Cailin - Kuru
malka - Menel
Kuru - Aman
Menel - Aman
Rune and Alcarillo - no vote

If Aman really is a wolf, I guess Menel's vote incriminates himself. With Kuru already having four votes cast against him, he was the sure lynchee for the Day, and Menel could have just voted for Aman without really endangering her. However, there were at least fifteen minutes left when Menel voted, so it was still possible for Aman to be lynched.

Now consider that Rune did not vote yesterDay. We could believe his RL excuse, or maybe we could not. But just one thing I have to ask you, Rune, is this:

People I belive innocent:

Luhna and only Luhna.

While it felt good to me at that time to know that someone completely believes in my innocence, now I find myself wary. How were you able to ascertain my innocence when I was pretty much being suspected by everybody?

At this point I am inclined to think Cailin, Farael, Naria, and Zali innocent. Rune has some questions to answer, but minus that I still think he's innocent. malka is completely unknown and must be assumed suspicious until proven innocent. Those on our urgent lynch list are Menel and Aman, and I'm more prepared to lynch Menel than Aman toDay.

[Lhunardawen]

Look at this...our wolves have committed a stupidity.

If they have killed Naria the Hunter last Night, Hunter would have been our Apprentice's role now. And with me and Alcarillo proven innocents, they would have killed the two of us one after the other, with no one but the Hunter left as a gifted.

I was completely convinced that our wolves are brilliant or at least very good in hiding, but now I see that they're not really very bright at all.

But look again...they could have been worried that Naria's huntee would be one of them, and so decided not to kill her. And who is Naria's most-likely huntee last Night? Aman. After all, she voted for her.

Then again, this could be a way for them to set Aman up.

Just something for you guys to think about.

[Lhunardawen]

This will be my last post before the day ends where I am, unless some miracle occurs.

I know it will surprise all of you - except the wolves , if ever, of course - but I have reason to believe that Aman is innocent. At least this is the verdict that one of the most reliable (though dead) villagers reached when I asked him about her (and no, it's not Kuru).

First, her votes are consistent - albeit consistently wrong: Kuru, Lhuna, Lhuna, Naria, Kuru. We'd expect a more erratic voting pattern for a wolf which usually includes one fellow wolf, whereas all of Aman's votes so far are directed at innocents (I'm no longer doubting Naria).

And second, no one had voted for her prior to yesterDay. Again, we'd expect wolf-on-wolf voting for cover, at least on the first Days.

Of course after she had come under heavy fire the past Day I don't expect you to release your suspicions of her just yet. But right now, I think it's better for us to lynch Menel instead of her...unless something interesting that sounds like "I'm a wolf!" comes up in my absence. And whatever happens, I expect you loyal villagers to do what you know must be done for the good of the village. Anyone who does otherwise shall face my terrible wrath.

I shall be back a few hours ere the Day ends (which is practically tomorrow before noon, GMT+8) to see what transpires and to cast my vote. Innocents, take care of the village in my absence.

[Cailín]

Cailin, I agree with your logic in basis, but am not sure that the Seer would actually be the best one to protect tonight - surely the Ranger is a more important asset?

Hmm no, Aman. First, a Ranger cannot protect himself... and second, what good is a Ranger when he does no other job than saving himself Night after Night? Besides, we need Lhuna around if we manage to kill a wolf and have again a completely reliable source, so there is no other possible scenario for toNight. Even though you may not have accepted Naria as the Hunter yet, the rest of us have, which makes her too dangerous for the wolves to stay alive.

So toDay we're deciding on both a lynchee and a huntee. Of course, Naria has the final say in the huntee, but I fear she might decide to actually shoot the Apprentice / Ranger, so it would be a good thing for her to make her huntee public. If the wolves then do not kill her toNight, that would also suggest she has picked the right target.

For now I argee with Lhuna and say we kill Menel toDay and hunt Aman during the Night (sorry, guys). But I wish to analyse all our quiet ones first so I may once more remember why we do not suspect them and if that is fair. I have this sinking feeling in my stomach that we may be on the wrong track entirely, so no one is going to escape having his posts reviewed toDay.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Aman

I was completely convinced that our wolves are brilliant or at least very good in hiding, but now I see that they're not really very bright at all.

Ooh, she's scathing! I shouldn't think insulting them would be the best thing, they'll come after you just because of injured pride! But indeed, that is at best rather careless of the wolves - but personally I wouldn't regard it as suspicious, I do view it as probably just being a slipup. Now, maybe that's just me being biased because, as Lhuna said, the survival of Naria who voted for me yesterday does somewhat seem to incriminate me - but please, survey the following the following voting logic from post #392:

Originally Posted by Naria

I am on the fence with both of them but more inclined to go with Aman, since I'm not convinced that she believes in my innocence(from yesterday's vote & post and today's posts)and would gladly watch me hang.

This certainly gives the impression that, basically, I get Naria's vote because she sees me as a threat to her personally from the village: I consider her suspicious therefore she tried to take me out in order to protect herself. Now, while this definitely does absolutely nothing to assuage my own personal suspicions of Naria (alright, there were fading, but right now? Shootin' up again ), it should at least act as some defence of me: Naria didn't so much vote for me because she thought I was a wolf, more because I was a threat to her. This may be wrong, she didn't make a very long post yesterday so I'm working with what I've got, but hey, that's my take on it. Maybe Malkatoj would be a more worthy object of our suspicion based on Naria's post: where Naria voted for me seemingly purely to protect herself from my suspicions (I had voiced suspicions about her and therefore, as a fellow villager, I posed a 'threat'), she also voiced suspicions about Malka, but did not, I deem, make the reasons quite clear enough.

Maybe she was simply going on other people's suspicons on this shady character, but other people have already voiced concern about Malka - but none of us can really find enough evidence against her. Or really any substantial evidence at all. Often the most we can amount it to is a 'bad feeling', and I'm not sure that really can stand up strongly enough when it's a life or death situation. Certainly, Malka bears post analysis, although I don't have time to do it now. Similarly Azaelia definitely bears analysis: where Malka has got the rather rough end of the stick based on her silence and is being considered guilty until proven innocent, general consensus on Azaelia seems to be that she is innocent until proven guilty, again based on her silence. Is she a wolf staying low, or merely with limited computer access? Hmm.

No more time right now, sorry - I must fly, for The Miller's Tale calls...