Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Cailín]

Amanaduial - please accept Naria's innocence. If she were not an innocent, the real Hunter would have come out and said something a long time ago since we then would have been able to catch a wolf. I know you are inexperienced, but this should seem rather logical even to someone who has never played before. Our Gifteds are no use when they stay hidden if they know a wolf. That's what the game's all about: catching wolves, and your stubbornness on this account is highly alarming. Small wonder Naria decided to vote for you. You will make things a lot easier on yourself if you can accept Naria as a known innocent.

Now to business:

Rune

#70, 72

In character Day 1 posts

#103

Agrees with Gurthang’s famous Seer plan.

#116

Expresses desire to vote for someone on the Nilp wagon. Quoting:

Naria
Malkatoj
Gíl-Galad

I have left Luhna out for now because she was the first to vote for Nilp (not counting him self)and because she tend to get annoyed by people acting like Nilp.

Interesting because Rune seems to be defending Lhuna from the start.

#127

First to vote for Gil, second wagon.

Day 2

#178

Nothing much, explicitly does not clear Menel.

#184

Nothing, really.

#186

Suspects Garin and Meneltarmacil.

#191

Lightly suspects Malkatoj.

Quote:

This is why I will not write Menel off as inoccent, actually I need the seer's word before I belive in the inoccens of anyone.

Luhna if you are a wolf I will start weeping for once again I am convinced of you innocens!

Now is not this odd??

Further says to be wanting to vote for Menel or Garin. Possibly Malka as well.

#200

Votes for Garin. I’m not sure how I feel about this. Both Lhuna and me had two votes by then, so Rune was tying the scores. Might be he felt me or Lhun would gather more votes anyway and this would clear him in the future.

#203

Further defends Lhuna.

Day 3

#271

Claims we hurt his brain.

#273

Agrees Nilp’s death might be telling.
TGWBS is too neutral.
Lhuna has finally managed to make him doubt her innocence.
Still suspects Menel and Malkatoj.
Does not know about Kuru, clears Valier.

#283

Votes for Malkatoj, believes Nilp is innocent.

Day 4

#311

Understands why wolves chose Valier. Is glad he is mentioned too. (though he is really only mentioned by people who are convinced of his innocence).

#335

Is sooner prepared to believe me the Hunter than Naria. Is thus willing to vote for:

TGWBS
Naria
Menel
Malkatoj

#347

Believes still in Menel and Malka’s guilt.

#351

Too confused about TGWBS to vote. Votes Malkatoj instead.

Day 5

#370
Keeps insisting we should consider Malkatoj.

#391

Again, all about Menel and Malkatoj. At least he’s consistent.

#398

Little fight with Malkatoj here. Believes Malkatoj should be on our to-lynch list, to put it in my own words.

--

For now, Rune seems as innocent as they come and I think we should try listening to him when it comes to Malkatoj and Meneltarmacil. Should these two prove to be innocent, we can always take a second look at Rune. For now, however, I'll trust Rune as much as I can. Though I do want an answer to one question: what made you so sure of Lhuna's innocence?

[Cailín]

Day 1

#63

Typical Day one post. Playfully accuses Farael and Eluchil.

#66

Thinks Menel should perhaps not be so random.

#106

Fourth to vote for Nilpaurion Felagund. Claims to have no better idea plus the overly familiar strange feeling.

Day 2

#156

Defends her vote by saying she cross-posted (though a third vote is as bandwagon-ish as a fourth on Day 1).

(Note: I am a student, and my time is therefore limited. With an earlier voting deadline, I'll almost always have to post my votes early and therefore with less evidence or reasoning than others who have time later may have. I'm in EST, by the way.)

Malkatoj, I mean nothing offensive by this, but look at Nilp or Lhuna’s votes – they are always early, but basically never unreasoned.

Suspects Menel and TGWBS for voting for Gil.

#196

Considering your earlier quote, this seems strange to say:

Anyway, I find both Lhunardawen and Alcarillo's early votes suspicious. Neither of them have a lot of (or any) reasoning behind them.

Suspects Alca, votes for Lhunardawen.

#199

Defends herself and her silence again.

Day 3

#234

Suspects TGWBS, Alcarillo, Lhunardawen, Nilpaurion Felagund and Gurthang. All known innocents now. Would a wolf not at least include its fellow to provide some cover? Possibly not.

Thinks one of the people who voted for Garin might have been a wolf:

Farael
Rune
Azaelia
Valier
Kuruharan
Gurthang

#238

Tells zombie Eluchil to stay dead.

#268

Votes for TGWBS (because he’s silent, and how ironic)

No posts on Day 4

Day 5

#371

Continues ranting about lack of time and some curious place called school.

#395

Continues defending herself. Suspects Meneltarmacil and Amanaduial.

#401

Votes for Menel.

--

Not a whole lot to go on, but then again, Rune has not posted much either and yet provides better reasoning and all together seems far more innocent. High school can be harsh, Malka, but you could still be a wolf who finds this forced absense all too convenient. I would consider Malkatoj for the gallows toDay.

[Cailín]

I'm starting to feel rather weary of scrutinizing posts for clues for now... So here's my midday review and I hope to see more useful posts from others later on.

Known Innocents

Lhunardawen
Naria
Cailín (again, personal, of course)

Probably Innocent

Rune

Don't knows

Azaelia
Farael

Suspicious

Amanaduial
Malkatoj
Meneltarmacil

Though anyone besides those in the first category could yet be guilty. I have officially stopped underestimating each and every one of you.

My proposed strategy - also for now:

Lynch Malkatoj toDay. Even if she turns out to be innocent, her continued absense is not very helpful. If Malkatoj turns out to be a wolf, I'd feel a lot better about some of the others - like Rune for example, and everyone who has been on her case since the beginning.

If Malkatoj is a wolf, hunt Amanaduial during the Night. Their lack of mentioning each other is highly disturbing and leads me to believe they might be allies during Night time.

If Malkatoj is innocent, hunt Meneltarmacil or possibly still Amanaduial.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Now consider that Rune did not vote yesterDay. We could believe his RL excuse, or maybe we could not. But just one thing I have to ask you, Rune, is this:

While it felt good to me at that time to know that someone completely believes in my innocence, now I find myself wary. How were you able to ascertain my innocence when I was pretty much being suspected by everybody?

Well It is a long time since now and I can of course not remember my thoughts at that exact moment, I guess you will have to settle with a strange explanation. Lhuna have I not allways been able to tell if you where innocent or not? Three villages have we been in and in every one of them I have declared that you are the only one I belive to be innocent. (It has cost me my life two times, you are a dangerous acquaintance miss Lhuna) The only time I questioned it was when you had your neurvos brake down. I guess it is your logic that strikes me as beeing very like mine, maybe logic is not the word. I get you thoughts, now that allsi sounded wrong. I hope you know what I mean.

I have not postet before, because I have had nothing to say at all, as allways I want to vote Malkatoj or Menel.

P.S. As I said in the paning thread I fell asleep in front of the cpu, I was very sick remember. (about me not voting)

[Amanaduial the archer]

If Malkatoj is a wolf, hunt Amanaduial during the Night. Their lack of mentioning each other is highly disturbing and leads me to believe they might be allies during Night time.

Originally Posted by Cailin (about Malka's posting)

#395

Continues defending herself. Suspects Meneltarmacil and Amanaduial.

Hmm. Plus see my last post and one of the posts of yesterday. Hardly not mentioning her...

[Cailín]

Why so silent everyone?

I realise you are mentioning each other now - Aman - you could hardly avoid to now you're both under much suspicion, but most of the times wolves avoid explicitly naming each other, specially the first few days. It took Malkatoj very long to suspect you and you have not named her often, either.

[Cailín]

I'm going out now - I shall return at about 11PM GMT to cast my vote.

I hope to see some posts and possibly clever insights from Malkatoj, Azaelia, Menel and Naria by then, because I cannot analyse an entire game by myself (and this criticism is not meant for Aman or Lhuna).

[Meneltarmacil]

My vote for Aman was because I genuinely suspected her, and I fully intend to vote for her toDay as well. Her fierce defense of Garin prior to hs lynching was the main evidence.

*heh heh*

And I might also add that circumstances had me pressed for time there.

*hee hee*

EDIT: Forgot to finish a sentence.

[Naria]

Hi, I'm here finally. Sorry about the late post, busy day. I know a few of you are waiting to see who my "hunte" is going to be, but alas I'm not going to make it that obvious till I vote. I haven't really done an analyses yet since some of you have done just a wonderful job. I think I'll give it a go today:

Menel- My suspicions of him are growing in light of Luna's dream and his past posts. He also is just now declared his innocence, vaguely and without "heart" I might add. He has yet to bring me up as the Hunter; I'm thinking that he either doesn't really care or he doesn't want to bring attention to himself that I would look at. High on my list.

Cailin- Hmmm, she has defended me adamentally since I have said that I'm the Hunter. Although I am grateful for that I can't help it think that maybe it's a crafty ww plot. It would make sense. I would in turn think that she must be an ordo if she is going to "help" me like that and ya know what, I did. But I started to think maybe that's exactly what she wanted me to believe. I really want to believe in her innocence. So not too high on my list

Azaleia- I, like the rest of you, don't have too much to go on here. I have looked through her posts and found nothing suspicious to me. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. So not high on my list.

Farael- He has been low on my radar since day 1. And that would be the only reason for suspicion. No one has suspected him or even voted for him. It makes me just a little nervous that's all. Not high on my list.

Rune- Same comment for him as I did for Farael. Except for a few banterings back and forth. I would like to think him as innocent as well. Not high on my list.

Lhuna- Our most wise seer, need I say more? Innocent.

Aman- Since she has already had a complete analyses done on her I shant go and do it again, besides her posts are usually reeeally long. I don't know why she hasn't accepted that I'm the Hunter and because of that my suspicions of her are lessening. If she were a ww why would she want me to die?Wouldn't that be suicidal for her? She's either a sneaky critter or an ordo that truly doesn't believe me. However, I can't blow off what other's have said and almost no defence by her. Still high on my list.

Naria- Hunter with time tick'n on a pick!! YiKEs

Malka- For now I don't know about her. Nothing has stood out for me in her posts. It's almost like she really doesn't want too be here or she doesn't want to take the chance on incriminating herself by writing too much. hmmm. ww? high on my list.

That looks to be about it. I know I didn't do that great of a job for an analyses, blame it on inexperience. I will wait for a bit before casting my vote.

[Meneltarmacil]

Might as well get my vote out of the way, heh heh.

++Amanduial the archer

And Naria, I did in fact think you were the Hunter.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well, the extra time is nice, especially since I haven't had a chance to log on so far toDay.

So about me first. I've voted the wrong way twice (which I mainly blame on having to vote so early), so I resolve to be much more careful toDay.

So here we go... Analysis.

Innocent
Naria and Lhuna, obviously.
And me.

Not suspicious/Very little suspicion
Cailin-She seems very reasonable to me. Her posts make good sense and so far she has not set off any red flags, of the big or small variety
Rune-He hasn't given me any reason to suspect him so far, either. Again, he comes off as reasonable.
Farael-I'm still watching him, but I have decided to relegate him to low suspicion standing, as in unless any drastic twists happen, I won't vote for him toDay. The only thing I was really suspicious of was his call for Lhuna to reveal herself, and he hasn't done anything wolfish since then.

I suspect...
Amanaduial-I went back through her posts and am confused. I also really don't like her refusal to outright say that Naria is the hunter or her continued suspicion of our hunter. Perhaps you see her as a danger to your own cover?
Meneltarmacil - Simply the fact that he came out of the tie alive casts him in a suspicious light. The wolves left him alive for a reason, and perhaps it was because the Wolves wanted someone to distract us villagers from the true culprit, Aman...Though either person out of the lynch alive could have done that.

Entirely unknown
Malkatoj-I do not like suspecting someone simply on the grounds of silence...so as long as there is someone else in my suspicion category, no vote from me. I will be reading what few posts Malka makes with care, though.

My suggested strategy for today, at the risk of sounding bloodthirsty...
Lynch Aman today, because I feel more suspicion toward her (Menel is only suspicious to me because he came out of the tie alive), then hunt Menel during the night...If the hunter is not killed, we can begin to believe that he really is a wolf. (Or that the wolves are cleverer than that...).
I'd also suggest for the Seer to gather information on him at night, as well, but that strategy may be superfluous since we'll at least find out something from the hunter's state of being.

Or the other way 'round: lynch Menel, then hunt Aman. It amounts to about the same thing.

Either way, one of them will get my vote today.

OK, my strategy definitely sounded better in my head...*headdesk*

[malkatoj]

My suspicions from yesterday remain, and nothing especially exciting has happened today, so

++MENELTARMACIL.