Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Gil-Galad]

bah i always have the worst timing, i feel so bad for not voting the last 2 days, been busy with school and such, and i probably won't get another time so i'll give Wayne's death wish and vote for him


++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

[the guy who be short]

How... utterly... bizarre...

If I were still fully awake, I would analyse the bejeezus out of that.

I shall return in at least 14 hours, at most 17.

[Glirdan]

Well, I must agree with TGWBS on this. Thosee two votes are the most bizzare votes that I have ever seen. But, does it prove innocence? Or does it prove guilt? I'm leaning towards innocence for one of them, maybe both. I highly doubt that both of them would be as quiet as they have been and both be either Wolf or Gifted.

However, Wayne could be a Wolf who is trying to pull a Nilp and be suicidal and make it seem as if he's innocent. Or he could just be an Ordo who's had enough of this nonesense.

I can't make hide nor tail of Gil's vote however. I think it's just him voting so he can say that he's voted.

I really don't know what else to think of these two very peculiar posts.

[malkatoj]

So Valier's dead.

::double-checks::

Okay, Valier's dead. (Note to self: Don't vote for Valier.)


Um, Wayne? Why's he pulling a Nilp? The fact that he's still alive kind of irritates me, mostly because somebody usually kills him. I find it even more odd that Gil immediately voted for him instead of SpM, whom a number of us have cast suspicion on.

Okay, to address the SpM issue: though by no means do I think it means he's a wolf, I'd like to point out that he started both the Shelob and the Abercrombie bandwagons. On one hand, he could just be casting fairly early votes and others are trusting him and voting with him because he's SpM, but perhaps he's just a very powerful wolf. It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay. And even if you don't vote for him, don't vote with him--innocent or no, it's dangerous to let one person have so much power over us.

[mormegil]

I have a couple of points that I would like to make currently.

1. Glirdan is incredibly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Yes, I'm now aware of that. I meant that for earlier. Bascially, my vote was to not bandwagon and because I still found that there was something not sitting right with me for Saucy.

He responds to TGWBS thusly then shortly after states this

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I miscounted the votes when I voted. So, I was thinking, at the time, that if I voted for Valier, there would be a possible double lynch and I did not want to be the cause of that.

So he states that he was aware of what his vote would do and then yet says he miscounts the votes and thought it would cause a tie. Seems a bit of a slip to me.

2. Formendacil's behavior is incredibly odd and I'm thinking I may vote for him. I don't know what to make of it. I don't know if he's the cobbler or simply doesn't care.

3. Wayne should be killed today! I know this will increase suspicion of me but I think that we will be better off without him. He wants to die and is incredibly ambiguous. His confusion does more harm than good. I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Those are my main three points but now I will move on to a couple of other items. TGWBS is pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little. Today you have rectified that and are contributing a lot. So that concern is nullified however I will continue to watch you.

Cailin still isn't sitting right with me and I may vote for her. But I may vote for Formen, Wayne, or Glirdan.

I do agree with most people about how obnoxious it is for so many people to not vote and propose that if it continues we form a posse, contrary to SpM to be sure, and lynch them summarily if allowed. If not continue to double lynch until behavior improves. I know this won't happen and I'm not sure it should but I want to let people know how I feel about it.

Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.

[Naria]

Finally I'm on! I have a perfectly good excuse for not posting and not voting. I had said in my first post that I was using other people's computers and would be getting mine back. Well I did get mine back later in day 2, when I had finally downloaded everything and did a virus scan and got online the deadline had come and gone. Then this site kept freezing on me today.
So I truly apologize for that inconvenience.

I recall being fairly quite in the last game I was in. Three posts max in one day. I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already. I will however post a personal thought about each player later on.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well if you look at my track record and SpM while loud and analytical we're seldom right. So the wolves wouldn't be stupid to leave us around.

[malkatoj]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Hm. As much as I don't like the idea of killing off extras in our village, I feel that both Wayne and SpM need to go. SpM seems too wolfish, looking at his track record, and Wayne gets in the way. His most recent post even gets me thinking he could easily be a wolf, trying to pull a bluff...or double-bluff...or something like that.

So, while I'd love to have them both gone, I feel like if they're both innocent we'll be hurting ourselves a bit too much, and I really don't know what to do. Before trying to kill them both, we should come to some sort of village consensus about whether to go for a double-lynch or no.

I think we should, for the record. And I apologize if I'm wrong.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The votes have to tell something. At least I hope they do.

Day 1 ; Day 2 ; Day 3 (thus far)

Formendacil -> Valier ; Sauce (8)
Wayne -> Formendacil ; no vote ; Wayne
Nilpaurion -> Nilp ; malkatoj (1)
--Valier -> Wayne ; Garin (3)
--Abercrombie -> Nilp
Cailin -> Wayne ; Garin (9)
Mormegil -> Valier ; Cailín (4)
Sauce -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (5)
TGWBS -> Abercrombie ; Naria (6)
Garin -> Valier ; Shelob (12)
Spawn -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (7)
--Aiwendil -> Abercrombie
Kath -> Abercrombie ; Valier (10)
--Shelob -> Garin ; Cailín (11)
Malkatoj -> Wayne ; Kath (2) ; Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce ; no vote ; Sauce
Naria -> Nilp ; no vote
Márcolië -> no vote ; no vote
Gil-Galad -> no vote ; no vote ; Wayne

Those who have voted for a known innocent who got lynched are bolded. Those who have voted for a known innocent who got killed by wolves are italicized. The number behind Day 2's votes is the order in which the votes were cast. Day 1's votes are already in chronological order.

I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.

Now, there are too many of those who haven't voted on both days, and it's all pretty confusing with bluffing, double bluffing, triple bluffing... But I believe that there was at least one wolf who stayed behind on both days to observe how the voting shall go. One that fills those criterias and looks pretty suspicious anyway is Glirdan. The other one is Cailín. Statistically speaking, it's probable that there's also a wolf in the bolded/ italicized group, but I can't really tell whom I'd suspect the most of them. At this point, I weill definitely keep an eye on those two. Oh, and since my logics have failed me thus far, if I only have time, I think I'll go and make a case against someone I really haven't suspected. Maybe I then have a better chance to find a wolf.

What about Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes, Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues). In the end, if it turns out to be a bad choice, I'll rather be killed by wolves who did good job hiding right under our noses than by wolves who acted suspiciously all the time but to whom we always gave a second chance. I don't know whether I'd like to have a double lynching or not, though. Depends on who are the lynching candidates, I guess.

Originally Posted by Nilp

I believe that saucemanpoet . . .

I thought that sounded familiar...