Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Naria]

Finally I'm on! I have a perfectly good excuse for not posting and not voting. I had said in my first post that I was using other people's computers and would be getting mine back. Well I did get mine back later in day 2, when I had finally downloaded everything and did a virus scan and got online the deadline had come and gone. Then this site kept freezing on me today.
So I truly apologize for that inconvenience.

I recall being fairly quite in the last game I was in. Three posts max in one day. I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already. I will however post a personal thought about each player later on.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well if you look at my track record and SpM while loud and analytical we're seldom right. So the wolves wouldn't be stupid to leave us around.

[malkatoj]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Hm. As much as I don't like the idea of killing off extras in our village, I feel that both Wayne and SpM need to go. SpM seems too wolfish, looking at his track record, and Wayne gets in the way. His most recent post even gets me thinking he could easily be a wolf, trying to pull a bluff...or double-bluff...or something like that.

So, while I'd love to have them both gone, I feel like if they're both innocent we'll be hurting ourselves a bit too much, and I really don't know what to do. Before trying to kill them both, we should come to some sort of village consensus about whether to go for a double-lynch or no.

I think we should, for the record. And I apologize if I'm wrong.

[Naria]

I don't agree with the double lynching idea. I mean if it happens in a tie vote then it happens. But I don't think that we should go out of our way to ensure this and make a conscious decision to kill two people at once.
What kind of furry talk is this anyway? Are we not worried enough about our dwindling numbers.

[malkatoj]

So you don't think we should specifically go out and try to. Understandable. I'm not completely invested in the idea, either, but I feel like we should do something to get rid of Wayne, since he only confuses us, but we also shouldn't let it impede our progress on wolf-hunting for the day.

I, however, will cast my vote for the Day, for, like our late Shelob, I feel badly posting in school (and apparently do stupid things).

++Saucepan Man

for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row.

I'll probably be on again late in the Day, but I wanted to get this posted just in case I'm not.


Edit-Note: cross-posted with both SpM and Glirdan

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

... for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row.

Ah, whatever happened to collective responsibility ...?

[Garin]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

I never like-double lynchings, it just is terrifying to me that a village could accidentally lynch two innocents in one day.

Malkatoj: Okay, Valier's dead. (Note to self: Don't vote for Valier.)

It is good that you can laugh at yourself. It made me giggle in honor of our, poor dead coconut milker. The Guy seems to think this makes you innocent but I am not convinced. I don't find you too wolvish, and you don't have much of a beef with me, yet. So I'll sit back and make sure this isn't some masterful wolf strategy.
Both Wayne and Gil posted and voted curiously close to one another.
This is bizarre, I hope they aren't PMing eachother during the night, for they are either breaking the rules or are wolves. I wish they had fleshed out their reasoning a little more.
People seem more detached from this game than normal, some surely have reasonable explanations. Some are surely wolves, i wish our God Mod and made a rule about killing non-voters.
If Wayne, wants to die, I say let him. We have heard little to the contrary. However, I will wait. I'm normally against helping someone die, but am growing wary of it. At least, Nilp came up with an interesting post with which to condemn himself.

[malkatoj]

SpM: Ah, whatever happened to collective responsibility ...?

Well, I voted for Wayne and Aiwen-- Kath. So I take no responsibility for these.

Cailin: Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day.

It just seems wolfish, and you more so because you started the bandwagons that led to the deaths. As always, apologies if I am wrong.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

I feel like we should do something to get rid of Wayne, since he only confuses us ...

Gah! Wayne confuses. I sway and control. Does anyone in this village have a mind of their own?

I find it ironic that, with so many people in this village singularly failing to contribute to the debate (and the voting), I am accused because I am actually bothering to spend the time trying to work out, and share my thoughts on, who the Wolves might be. I have been wrong so far, yes. But how many other suspicions and votes have been wrong also?

Originally Posted by malkatoj

It just seems wolfish, and you more so because you started the bandwagons that led to the deaths.

OK, I am starting to get angry now. I didn't "get" anyone to kill innocent villagers. And I didn't start any bandwagons - not intentionally so, anyway. I have always made clear that the voting should be spread widely in order to make it difficult for the Wolves. I take responsibility for my vote, but I take no responsibility for any others.

Are we going to see the usual pattern of innocents being lynched for having accused and voted for other innocents? And am I the only person who has voted for two innocents?

And, finally, do you really think that I have behaved in the way that a Wolf would behave? If so, then vote for me by all means. But I would point out that, if I am a Wolf, I have been a pretty poor one ...

Now, unless any other points come up, that's all I am going to say in my defence, as it takes up time that I should be spending formulating my thoughts, and it gets wearing. Ultimately, better a vote for me than a Gifted, but better still a vote for a Wolf. Unless, of course, you are a Wolf ...

[Garin]

Posted by SpM: Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner.

I didn't intend to be arrogant, I really wanted to extend my sympathy to Shelob. She was not at the top of my list at the time and I won't PM her until this thing is over. So I thought the village was headed in the wrong direction but this is a game of survival, I thought her more innocent than others (rhymes with mail-in) but I was out to save myself. I detest the innocent that put their heads in the noose, so I was just doing what I thought was best for the village.
I used the word 'dear' because I wanted to give her the best, innocent or wolf. It was used endearingly.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here is my voting analysis from yesterday. I know TGWBS has already posted his, but it is traditional for me to do so:

1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Aiwendil - er - Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Did not vote: Wayne, Gil-Galad, Glirdan, Márcolië Lamen, Naria

First things first. Valier's death. I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

Now, before I go on, let me get something out of my system. I am getting just a little bit fed up with people accusing me of talking too much and trying to take control. Well, pardon me for bothering to participate in our discussions (unlike some I could mention).

If you think I am saying too much, then the answer is to try to drown me out with your own analyses. I would be only too happy if you did so, since it seemed yesterday that there were only a few of us who were actually bothering to try to solve this mystery. That is what I am trying to do and that is why I have been speaking a lot. Thinking aloud, if you like, and sharing my thoughts, in case they strike a chord with anyone. I am not trying to control anyone or sway the village. Of course, I hope people read and take account of what I say - otherwise why bother posting? But I hope you are all capable of making up your own minds.

If people followed my ideas because they agreed with them, then it means that there must have been some substance to them, even though they turned out to be wrong. And it also means that those who shared my thoughts are just as complicit in the deaths of two innocents as I am and bear us much consideration as I do, even if I was the first to cast the vote for our dead innocents in both cases. I would point out that I was not the only one who suspected Abercrombie and Shelob, even amongst those who did not ultimately vote for them, and indeed my decisions to vote for those two, particularly the one for Shelob, were partially influenced by the fact that others, whom I felt to be innocent (at the time at least) were thinking along the same lines as me. And if people followed my ideas because they couldn't be bothered to think for themselves, then that's their problem not mine. Either that, or they are Wolves and were looking for a mistaken innocent to follow. Basically, I would encourage everyone to try to think for themselves and reach their own conclusions, rather than adopting mine.

OK, rant over.

Now, to comment on a few of the things that have been said today already, partially because they pick up on a few points that I wanted to make anyway:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well, for my own part, all I can say is no, I am not a Wolf, and yes, I have been badly wrong so far. Frankly, the fact that I am still alive does make me wonder whether I have been barking up the completely the wrong tree (to adopt an unfortunate phrase) so far and makes me wonder whether all of my suspicions to date (Garin, Glirdan and Kath) have been off-key. In other words, I feel as though I am more or less back to square one.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Secondly, I'd like to insult them for killing an innocent Valier. I'd also like to insult the village for killing an innocent Shelob and Abercrombie.

Thirdly, I'd like to direct today's attention, discussion, and lynching towards a candidate who is a Werewolf.

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage. Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we? And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched? It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Definetly wasn't looked for. But it was probably the best choice for the Wolves.

Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I notice how SpM was after me a lot yesterday and knew perfectly well that I might not return in order to defend myself. What the strange thing is that he suddenly drops off that attack later on. I find this quite strange. Not to mention, if I'm correct, he was the first to voice suspicion for Shelob. He is really making me suspicious and uneasy.

Glirdan, I explained at the time that I voted that I did not think that there was enough evidence against you to warrant a vote. And I was also concerned not to vote for you as a reaction to your vote for, and continued suspicion of, me (a consideration which Cailín reasonably pointed out). Would you rather I had voted for you, even though I suspected others more? As for Shelob, I was not actually the first to note her suspicious-looking vote on Day 1. That was Cailín in post #86. I did subsequently voice strong suspicion of her and was the first to vote for her. But that was because I suspected her. I wish more people had enlightened us with some constructive analysis yesterday - or even contributed - but I'd better stop this line of thought before I start ranting again ...

Originally Posted by Cailín

Also - I very much wish to know why so many people failed to vote. I've never seen anything like it.

I agree. It was inexcusable (unless, of course, you have a good excuse - but even then you should perhaps not have joined our village in the first place).

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

Although I did not agree with her reason for voting Valier yesterday (I thought that Valier justifed her vote perfectly well), I do agree that Kath is looking less and less suspicious as time wears on. Her Day 1 vote would have looked suspicious if Valer had turned out to be a Wolf, but we all know now that she didn't. Her Day 2 vote for Valier can't really be described as a "safe" Wolfish vote, as she was not to know that there would be such a pathetic turn out.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

Originally Posted by Glirdan

In my defence, if I were a Wolf, I would not be as stupid to attack someone whom I suspected. That would leave to many clues pointing towards me.

I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

Like others, I really don't know what to make of the votes cast by Wayne and Gil. I have cautioned about going against them when they are merely behaving as they always do, but my patience with them is now beginning to wear thin. It would be nice if they could provide reasons for their votes. Perhaps, if Formendacil is not the Cobbler, Wayne is. Or perhaps, as Glirdan says, he is taking a leaf out of Nilp's book (although Nilp carries it off with so much more aplomb ).

Originally Posted by Garin

I voted for Shelob to save my life, it would've been a double lynch. If that doesn't seem reasonable, I don't know what else to say.

Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner. I am not quite sure what to make of that. And, in response to Cailín's point, I suspect from the timing that he cross-posted with Shelob and did not see her vote for you before he cast his own. At the time, therefore, Shelob would have been the best option for saving himself. Although I am not sure why he did not make that point himself.

Originally Posted by malkatoj

It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay.

Oh I do hope not, but if that turns out to be the case, then so be it. At least people will be making up their own minds for once, even if wrongly so (*pulls back from another rant*).

Originally Posted by mormegil

Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.

It is interesting that she admitted typing the wrong name, having meant to vote for Kath. It would have been much easier to regard her as innocent had she said that she actually meant to vote for Aiwendil, thinking that he was still alive. But would a Wolf be so honest? Or is it another possible bluff? In any event, there are three Wolves to find, so I am crossing malkatoj off my list - for now at least. Despite her deeply expressed desire to be rid of me ...

So, any ideas from me as to who might be a Wolf? Well, the above is all speculation (so please don't be swayed by it). As I said, I am really back to square one. Besides, I am terrified that if I express any suspicions, a whole load of people will agree with me and we'll end up voting another innocent "on my say so" ...

[Formendacil]

It is 1:30 am. I ought to be in bed.

Clearly, however, I am not, and so I am here offering no help whatsoever- and a full 12 hours or so before I'd predicted I'd be doing that.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage.

Ah, but perhaps I have no insightful analysis to offer?

Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we?

Nor are you ever likely to, since I do not deign to share them, and since "they" probably don't exist in the first place...

For what it's worth, I haven't been able to keep up with this game as closely as I have in times past. The adjustment to reading full pages at a time and trying to digest their full meaning... doesn't work for me.

And I'm too lazy to try.

And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched?

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Yep, that's me: no use at all.

Seriously, I have very little to offer which is new, relevant, or sensible. Other than popping my head in to assure you all that I'm still alive- what else have I to do?

And, incidentally, I am still very much alive.

Now, although it is my avowed intention to be no use whatsoever, allow me to put forward a tidbit of caution regarding the evil Saucepan Man. The Saucepan Man, as we call him, is an uncannily cunning Werewolf player- although often clueless in his guesses as to innocence. Possessed of the talent of persuasion, he is renowned for his ability to sway the village in favour of his candidate- wisely or not. However, thus far, this ability has always been coupled with an Innocent Demeanor.

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?

However, it seems me that he came on a good deal stronger in this game than in those previous, hitting the ground running, so to speak, with typical Day 1 babble about his occupation: Day 1 babble that basically said "I'm a lawyer, so let me be in charge".

As already noted, both Mormegil and the Saucepan Man, who are perhaps the two villagers best known for cunning and noisemaking, are not dead. Is this perhaps a sign of Werewolfishness?

I remain, foolish villagers, uncertain of anything. But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow. Seriously, guys...

Bandwagoning. In this village the person who gets the most votes is lynched. In order to get the most votes, the lynchee has to be voted by a majority. In the end of a day, there has to be some kind of a majority voting for a villager or otherwise we're all dead after Day 1, and therefore it's ridiculous to call every cluster of votes a 'bandwagon'. Those who have no opinions on their own are the ones to do the bandwagoning (with possible wolves). Those who have their own theories about what's going on in this village do not bandwagon despite in whatever way they vote since they have another reason to do it than that someone just seems to be getting votes anyway.

Let's assume we have a bandwagon against an ordinary villager. Who is responsible for the death of an innocent? Every one of us has only one vote, so a single villager can't get anyone lynched by him/herself. Take responsibility for your vote! If you're too lazy to make your own mind about things and we lynch an innocent, you can blame yourself. And in that case, maybe this village life isn't made for you in the first place. Sure you wouldn't be happier somewhere else, like in Rivendell where you can just sit back and have fun as much as you want to?

Swaying. If it bothers you, don't be swayed.

(I'm not saying that we would have some villagers who tried to manipulate others, but since it seems to be pretty hard to change that fallacy - ooh, would that be swaying, too - I leave it at that.)


Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now. I'll be back with more thoughts as soon as I can, but unfortunately I'm today pretty much caught up with violin concertos and vocal fugues... I mean, daisies and lilies. I'll try my best, though.

ps. Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I believe that saucemanpoet . . . I mean, The Saucepan Man is innocent.

Why? Because I notice things. Things ordinary people wouldn't notice. Yeah, yeah, you might think, 'Are you the Seer?' and all such nonsense. I'm not, okay? I just read carefully.

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.

With this said, I am quite convinced that some of the Villagers clamouring for Saucie's death are, in fact, Werewolves.

Yeah, I'm looking at you, Glirdan. You too, malkatoj. And, oh, Formendacil, the Sharingan has not passed by you.

I'll be back with my lengthier analysis.

[Glirdan]

I must say that it is rather quiet toDay. Here's a short synopsis of what has been said all Day toDay.

TGWBS: Gives us a voting record of the previous Day. Says we should get rid of all those who are too quiet or have not voted. Asks Cailin and morm to answer his question from yesterDay. Attacks Naria and myself to get resoning out of our throwaway votes from Day 1. Says he can't get over it even though Shelob did same and as proven innocent. Defends Nilp simply because he's Nilp and malka because of her misvote. Also truts Kath due to her vote for Valier. Notes that spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin all voted for an innocent twice and doesn't really suspect any of them but decides to go back and check each of them out individually. Believes there is a Wolf hidden amongst Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Form, Wayne, Naria and myslef. Notices that both Cailin and myself said that SpM has voted for a known innocent first each Day and believes it to be incriminating. Finds Wayne and Gil's votes odd.

There's one thing that I find odd in there. While I do agree with him that malka is probably an innocent because of her misvote and her not showing up until yesterday, I don't think that we should leave Nilp out of our sight just yet. How do we know that he's not being a suicidal Wolf?

Cailin - Finds Valier's death rather surprising. Sees that Valier and herself have voted the exact same way for the past two days and thinks that it might be a setup to make her look guilty. Also believes that Wolves might have seen Valier as the Seer which would make Garin look bad. Finds that morm, SpM and Spawn all alive rather disturbing. Would like and explanation for Garin's last moment desicion. Says that people need to make up their own minds with whom they are suspicious of. Agrees with TGWBS on the fact that the non voters are just getting in the way.

I don't find anything in that overly suspicious. If anything, I find more insightful.

I'll have the other's up shortly.

[Glirdan]

In answer to SpM's question:

Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).

There were a few people (me for one) who had voiced suspicion of her. She was also a very quiet villager. If they killed her off, it would leave no clues pointing to anyone in particular and leave some of us looking suspicious.

I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

I'm just going to say now, even though I'm going to be badgered about it for quite some time, that I realise my vote for you was a complete throw away. That was completely intentional. I did not want to bandwagon. That's why I ended up voting for you. As for my answers to TGWBS, I must say that I can't quite get my thoughts in order and explain how I have it in my head. All I have to say is that I was a quite confused (not to mention stressed) villager.

Now, to do an analysis on three more villagers:

Formendacil - Comes on and mourns for Valier's death. Blames the Wolves for killing an innocent villager as well as insults the village in itself for lynching two innocents. Says that we should direct everything towards the Wolves.

If I must say, this is the most useless post that I've ever seen. No substance, no helpful hints, nothing. He comes on and leaves us again in bewilderment. Either he's being a really brave Wolf or a very stupid Villager.

I'm gong to skip me for the time being and go on to

Wayne: Also comes on for one post and votes for himself.

Gil - Comes on for one post as well and gives Wayne a vote to go along with his death wish.

I've already given my opinions on this subject in a previous post.

I'll have malka, morm and naria up next.

[Glirdan]

malka - Finds it wierd that Wayne is pulling a Nilp and thinks that Gil's voter for him is even more odd. Wants to point out that, even though she doesn't believe that SpM is a Wolf, he was the one who started the Shelob and Crombie bandwagons. Agrees that we should double lynch, SpM and Wayne preferably. Votes for Saucy because he led the bandwaggoning.

Ok, either she missed SpM's long rant on making your own mind up or she just choses to ignore it. I find that reason rather....what's the word I'm looking for....BAD! Yes, I suspect SpM, but for reasons other than that. Also, if you would prefer to vote for Wayne, why did you vote for SpM? (Wow, I'm asking the same question that I've been asked all Day!! ).

morm - Finds me incredibly suspicious and finds Form's behaviour rather odd. Believes we should absolutely lynch Wayne and something about Cailin isn't sitting right with him. Thinks he's going to vote for Cailin, Wayne, Form or myself. Thinks that Wolves wouldn't be stupid enough to leave him or SpM around do to their track record.

I find absolutely nothing wrong with anything that morm's said all Day.

Naria - Explains absecence. Says he won't do any analysing due to the fact that there's enough people doing that already. Will, however, give a personal thought later on about each of the players. Does not agree with double lynching theory.

Well, I find that Naria's being entirely unhelpful. Doesn't want to analyse because others are already doing it. That's worse than Form because you're actually admitting that you don't want to do any analysing.

Next: Garin, SpM and myself.

[Glirdan]

Garin - Won't spend all Day explaining himself to Cailin. Voted for Shelob to save his own neck. Also finds Gil and Wayne's vote odd. Doesn't like double lynching idea either. Thinks that if Wayne wants to die, we should let him but doesn't want to help in the killing.

Well, out of this, plus the post that I didn't put in (simply because there isn't anything in there that I haven't [technically] put in already), nothing out of the ordinary.

SpM - Comes on and does really long post, some of which is ranting that he didn't lead anyong purposely to vote for Shelob and Crombie. Also finds Valier's death bizzare. Adresses certain comments that have been made today.

I'm not putting anything else in because he's only made two posts, one of which you'd have to read yourself to get more out of it. However, out of that entire post, I must say that nothing seems out of the ordinary. I still don't trust him.

Now, for me: Comes on and says that he finds Valier's death odd. Adresses questions made by TGWBS. Finds Wayne and Gil's votes rather strange. Perhaps Cobblerish? Or maybe pulling a Nilp? Does analysis of everyone who's posted toDay and adresses comments made by SpM.

Take from that what you will. As for my suspcions list(not in order):

SpM
Gil
Wayne
malka

I think the following few people are mst likely innocent:

Cailin
morm

Still not sure of:

Form
TGWBS
Naria
Garin

As for those who haven't posted yet, I'll have to reserve judgement for them. I will have to vote very shortly. Out of the 4 I suspect, I don't know who to vote for.