Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Meneltarmacil · 02-08-2006, 04:02 PM

Villagers, please cease posting. The votes will be totaled and a death scene posted shortly after this post.

Meneltarmacil · 02-08-2006, 04:19 PM

"I'm a wolf!" shouted the town geek, wimp, and nerd. "Lynch me!"

"Good luck with that," Nilpaurion Felagund remarked.

"Why exactly should we lynch you, as opposed to the last suicidal mainiac?" asked Formendacil.

"Because this +5 Amulet of Lycanthropy Detection glows in my presence?" WaynetheGoblin offered.

"Good enough," said Kath. "Lynch the wolf!"

"Hey, this isn't fair!" Nilp shouted.

Naturally, Cailín agreed with the decision to lynch the geek, wimp, and nerd, as she would survive. The villagers grabbed Wayne and hauled him off to the gallows.

"This won't work," protested Wayne. I'm wearing a +3 Necklace of Life Preservation and a +5 Cloak of Choking Resistan---GACK!"

The villagers had already hung him, revealing him to be a perfectly Ordinary Villager.

Once again, the villagers didn't have much luck.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 11

Night 4 beginneth. Ranger and Hunter, please stop PMing. Wolves, please commence PMing. Wolves, Ranger, Hunter, and Seer, please send me some names.

Meneltarmacil · 02-09-2006, 04:10 PM

Cailín paced back and forth nervously, watching for any sign of the Wolves. As the Ranger, it was her task to protect the villagers from wolf attacks. She suddenly heard a loud CRASH from behind her and turned around to see what had happened.

At that moment, two of the wolves sprang out of the shadows on cue. The third one had provided a distraction for the Ranger. Cailín drew her sword to battle them, but the third wolf leaped on her from above, knocking her down.

The wolves, however, decided not to kill her just yet.

"So, she thinks she's a mermaid, huh?" one of them said to the other.

"She'd better hope she actually has gills," the other one said.

With that, the wolves tied her to a large rock and threw her into the sea. As she was not actually a mermaid, she drowned.

In the morning, the villagers gathered in horror to see Cailín's armor and weapons lying on the ground near the cliff with a note from the wolves describing what had transpired and adding that the village was doomed. There would be no more protection from wolf attacks in the Nights to come.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 10

It is now Day 4. Villagers, please begin posting. Hunter and Ranger may now PM each other; Wolves may not.

EDIT: Actually, the Hunter and Ranger may not PM each other, due to the fact that the Ranger is dead. Oops.

FURTHER EDIT: Removed some names...thanks, morm.

mormegil · 02-09-2006, 04:45 PM

I feel horrible for the role I played in Cailin's death. I knew she was acting odd but I didn't think at all that it was because she was gifted. She seemed much more wolfish to me. I've been thinking for the last day and I really don't know where to go now. I'm feeling a bit of a lack of confidence in my abilities and really am unsure of who might be a wolf now.

The comment yesterday caught my attention from Formendacil that said something like 'wouldn't he be smarter than act the way he is if he were a wolf'. Given I think Formendacil a very intelligent person bu I just don't see that he wouldn't act that way if he were the wolf or cobbler. He thrives on bluffing. But again I hesitate to go after somebody due to the tantamount mistake I made.

Edit: Menel you still have Wayne and Cailin on the living list.

Gil-Galad · 02-09-2006, 05:22 PM

oh wow... we lost our first gifted... and wayne was just playing stupid... don't know why, just lost all hope... well maybe jsut don't listen to me anymore...

malkatoj · 02-09-2006, 05:52 PM

I'm about to head off to my dinner of awesomeness, so I don't really have time to make a detailed post, but I figured I'd drop in.

Cailin's death, tragedy as it may be, is hardly a surprise--as a known gifted, she would be first on anyone's list. However, this leaves us with absolutely no trail. Anyone (well, any wolf) would have killed her so we don't know who they are from it.

My suspect list right now consists of TGWBS and Spawn. SpM's moved down quite a bit as his defense was well-reasoned and not just a 'hey don't lynch me!' post. I'm also growing more suspicious of Gil-Galad, simply because his posts don't help anyone at all, though I still think it more likely that he's a cobbler trying to distract us.

I have absolutely no idea when I'll be back on, but I'll be looking carefully at certain people (and everyone, actually, but some people more than others) before I vote.

Kath · 02-09-2006, 05:59 PM

Ok I've waited about as long as I can. Since there have only been 3 posts I can't use anything said toDay to make my mind up. Therefore:

++MORMEGIL

For the same reasons as yesterday.

(I know this is shockingly early - check out the other thread for why.)

mormegil · 02-09-2006, 10:48 PM

I am not voting yet however I've been thinking on it a great deal and will make my intentions known. I think I will be voting for Formendacil, this could change if evidence is presented that sways me. The most frustrating part is that he is intelligent and is not helping. I find this very wolfish and I've been able to gauge him from past experience and he loves nothing more than to live on the edge. He has been insulting that we aren't doing anything and killing innocents yets doesn't help himself. At a minimum I think we will kill the cobbler at best we get a wolf. Either way it seems a win/win situation for us.

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-09-2006, 06:00 PM

Ah, the irony of it. All those fine legal speeches at the outset counselling against the lynch mob mentality because it was most likely to end in the death of innocents and now I myself have the blood of three innocents on my hands.

I had no idea that Cailin was one of our Gifted villagers and I strongly doubt that the Wolves did either. As far as I can see, she sensibly left no clues as to her identity. I am truly sorry for my part in her death.

Ah well, we must press on with our endeavours to find the Wolves and perhaps avenge her and the others that have died. Though I hesitate to take up my own role in this once more, as I have made such poor choices so far and am wearied by it.

Here are yesterday's votes, for what they are worth:

1. Wayne for Wayne (Wayne-1)
2. Gil-Galad for Wayne (Wayne-2)
3. Malkatoj for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-1)
4. Glirdan for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-2)
5. Mormegil for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-1)
6. Nilp for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-2)
7. SpM for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3)
8. Naria for Formendacil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1)
9. TGWBS for mormegil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Wayne (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
11. Garin for Cailin (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
12. Kath for mormegil (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
13. Formendacil for Wayne (Wayne-4, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
14. Cailin for Wayne (Wayne-5, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
15. Marcolie for Wayne (Wayne-6, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)

I fear that they will tell us little. I have been carrying out some research into voting patterns overnight and will share my conclusions shortly, once I have collated them into something intelligible.

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-09-2006, 06:32 PM

You know, despite our best endeavours to spread the voting on Day 1, it is now looking very much (at least from my perspective) like not one vote was cast for a Wolf. And I suspect that the following Days were not much different. Let me explain how I have reached this conclusion.

On Day 1, of 17 votes cast, 14 were for people that we now know to be innocent. That's 82% of the votes on Day 1 for known innocents! The remaining three votes were cast for me and Nilp. Since I am fairly certain of Nilp's innocence, that means that, from where I am standing, not one Wolf was voted for on Day 1.

Day 2 was a bit better. Of 12 votes cast, 6 were for known innocent (50%), or seven from my perspective as one vote was cast for me.

On Day 3, we had a relapse. Of 15 votes cast, 10 were for known innocents (66.6%), or 12 (80%) from my perspective.

Overall, out of a total 44 votes cast over the three days, 30 have been for known innocents. That's 68%. For me, the figure rises to 34 (77%).

Considering that not all of the votes for those whose identity is not yet known will have been for Wolves, it is clear that we do not have a very good strike rate.

So, what does that tell us?

1. While voting patterns are normally of some help in finding Wolves, that is only the case when there are Wolves among those who are in the running and/or when we actually manage to find a Wolf. As matters stand, given our poor strike rate, the voting patterns are about as much use as a post by Formendacil.

(That's unfair - he was actually rather constructive in the latter stages of yesterday. Although the comparison may not be so unfair, as there may be something we can learn from the voting patterns, as I hope to show.)

2. The number of innocents that a person has voted for is, in these circumstances, not a particularly useful guide for determining who might be a Wolf. Four of us have voted for three innocents (mormegil, dancing spawn, Garin and myself). I doubt that any more than one, at most, of these is a Wolf. Shelob, a known innocent, cast both of her votes for innocents. And Cailin, also a known innocent and our esteemed Ranger, cast two of her three votes for innocents. Two other villagers - Formendacil and Kath - have voted two out of three times for innocents. In fact, only two villagers have not voted for a known innocent - Glirdan and Naria. And I (although I alone) know that Glirdan has in fact voted for an innocent twice (with one "no vote").

3. In light of the way that the voting has gone, there has been little need, if any, for Wolves to vote to go out of their way to get an innocent lynched. We have done that for them.

I conclude from this that we should perhaps not be looking at those who have voted on a number of occasions for known innocents. In the circumstances of our past three days' voting, this would have been unnecessarily risky behaviour for the Wolves. It seems to me that they are much more likely to have been placing "safe" votes, since we have given them the opportunity to do just that.

I acknowledge that these musings might be seen as self-serving, given that I have voted for three different known innocents. But I hope that you will see that there may be some merit in them. And perhaps they might actually help us to bag a Wolf today.

More in a bit with my thoughts on individual villagers - for what they may be worth.

02-08-2006, 04:02 PM	#1
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	Villagers, please cease posting. The votes will be totaled and a death scene posted shortly after this post. __________________ I ♣ baby seals.

02-08-2006, 04:19 PM	#2
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	"I'm a wolf!" shouted the town geek, wimp, and nerd. "Lynch me!" "Good luck with that," Nilpaurion Felagund remarked. "Why exactly should we lynch you, as opposed to the last suicidal mainiac?" asked Formendacil. "Because this +5 Amulet of Lycanthropy Detection glows in my presence?" WaynetheGoblin offered. "Good enough," said Kath. "Lynch the wolf!" "Hey, this isn't fair!" Nilp shouted. Naturally, Cailín agreed with the decision to lynch the geek, wimp, and nerd, as she would survive. The villagers grabbed Wayne and hauled him off to the gallows. "This won't work," protested Wayne. I'm wearing a +3 Necklace of Life Preservation and a +5 Cloak of Choking Resistan---GACK!" The villagers had already hung him, revealing him to be a perfectly Ordinary Villager. Once again, the villagers didn't have much luck. Living: mormegil- Elven smith Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man) Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian Formendacil- Village historian Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her Dead: Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1 AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1 Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2 Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2 Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3 WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3 Wolves: 3 Villagers: 11 Night 4 beginneth. Ranger and Hunter, please stop PMing. Wolves, please commence PMing. Wolves, Ranger, Hunter, and Seer, please send me some names. __________________ I ♣ baby seals. Last edited by Meneltarmacil; 02-08-2006 at 05:36 PM.

02-09-2006, 04:10 PM	#3
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	Cailín paced back and forth nervously, watching for any sign of the Wolves. As the Ranger, it was her task to protect the villagers from wolf attacks. She suddenly heard a loud CRASH from behind her and turned around to see what had happened. At that moment, two of the wolves sprang out of the shadows on cue. The third one had provided a distraction for the Ranger. Cailín drew her sword to battle them, but the third wolf leaped on her from above, knocking her down. The wolves, however, decided not to kill her just yet. "So, she thinks she's a mermaid, huh?" one of them said to the other. "She'd better hope she actually has gills," the other one said. With that, the wolves tied her to a large rock and threw her into the sea. As she was not actually a mermaid, she drowned. In the morning, the villagers gathered in horror to see Cailín's armor and weapons lying on the ground near the cliff with a note from the wolves describing what had transpired and adding that the village was doomed. There would be no more protection from wolf attacks in the Nights to come. Living: mormegil- Elven smith Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man) Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian Formendacil- Village historian Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her Dead: Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1 AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1 Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2 Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2 Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3 WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3 Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4 Wolves: 3 Villagers: 10 It is now Day 4. Villagers, please begin posting. Hunter and Ranger may now PM each other; Wolves may not. EDIT: Actually, the Hunter and Ranger may not PM each other, due to the fact that the Ranger is dead. Oops. FURTHER EDIT: Removed some names...thanks, morm. __________________ I ♣ baby seals. Last edited by Meneltarmacil; 02-09-2006 at 07:32 PM.

02-09-2006, 04:45 PM	#4
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I feel horrible for the role I played in Cailin's death. I knew she was acting odd but I didn't think at all that it was because she was gifted. She seemed much more wolfish to me. I've been thinking for the last day and I really don't know where to go now. I'm feeling a bit of a lack of confidence in my abilities and really am unsure of who might be a wolf now. The comment yesterday caught my attention from Formendacil that said something like 'wouldn't he be smarter than act the way he is if he were a wolf'. Given I think Formendacil a very intelligent person bu I just don't see that he wouldn't act that way if he were the wolf or cobbler. He thrives on bluffing. But again I hesitate to go after somebody due to the tantamount mistake I made. Edit: Menel you still have Wayne and Cailin on the living list. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” Last edited by mormegil; 02-09-2006 at 05:16 PM.

02-09-2006, 05:22 PM	#5
Gil-Galad Psyche of Prince Immortal Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Above a Parapet Obvious exits are: North, South, and Dennis Posts: 4,734	oh wow... we lost our first gifted... and wayne was just playing stupid... don't know why, just lost all hope... well maybe jsut don't listen to me anymore... __________________ Love doesn't blow up and get killed.

02-09-2006, 05:52 PM	#6
malkatoj Wight Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: A hovel in Florin Posts: 173	I'm about to head off to my dinner of awesomeness, so I don't really have time to make a detailed post, but I figured I'd drop in. Cailin's death, tragedy as it may be, is hardly a surprise--as a known gifted, she would be first on anyone's list. However, this leaves us with absolutely no trail. Anyone (well, any wolf) would have killed her so we don't know who they are from it. My suspect list right now consists of TGWBS and Spawn. SpM's moved down quite a bit as his defense was well-reasoned and not just a 'hey don't lynch me!' post. I'm also growing more suspicious of Gil-Galad, simply because his posts don't help anyone at all, though I still think it more likely that he's a cobbler trying to distract us. I have absolutely no idea when I'll be back on, but I'll be looking carefully at certain people (and everyone, actually, but some people more than others) before I vote. __________________ Now, mostly dead is slightly alive. Now, all dead...well, with all dead, there's usually only one thing that you can do--Go through his clothes and look for loose change.

02-09-2006, 05:59 PM	#7
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Ok I've waited about as long as I can. Since there have only been 3 posts I can't use anything said toDay to make my mind up. Therefore: ++MORMEGIL For the same reasons as yesterday. (I know this is shockingly early - check out the other thread for why.) __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

02-09-2006, 10:48 PM	#8
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I am not voting yet however I've been thinking on it a great deal and will make my intentions known. I think I will be voting for Formendacil, this could change if evidence is presented that sways me. The most frustrating part is that he is intelligent and is not helping. I find this very wolfish and I've been able to gauge him from past experience and he loves nothing more than to live on the edge. He has been insulting that we aren't doing anything and killing innocents yets doesn't help himself. At a minimum I think we will kill the cobbler at best we get a wolf. Either way it seems a win/win situation for us. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

02-09-2006, 06:00 PM	#9
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Ah, the irony of it. All those fine legal speeches at the outset counselling against the lynch mob mentality because it was most likely to end in the death of innocents and now I myself have the blood of three innocents on my hands. I had no idea that Cailin was one of our Gifted villagers and I strongly doubt that the Wolves did either. As far as I can see, she sensibly left no clues as to her identity. I am truly sorry for my part in her death. Ah well, we must press on with our endeavours to find the Wolves and perhaps avenge her and the others that have died. Though I hesitate to take up my own role in this once more, as I have made such poor choices so far and am wearied by it. Here are yesterday's votes, for what they are worth: 1. Wayne for Wayne (Wayne-1) 2. Gil-Galad for Wayne (Wayne-2) 3. Malkatoj for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-1) 4. Glirdan for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-2) 5. Mormegil for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-1) 6. Nilp for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-2) 7. SpM for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3) 8. Naria for Formendacil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1) 9. TGWBS for mormegil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1) 10. Dancing spawn for Wayne (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1) 11. Garin for Cailin (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1) 12. Kath for mormegil (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2) 13. Formendacil for Wayne (Wayne-4, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2) 14. Cailin for Wayne (Wayne-5, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2) 15. Marcolie for Wayne (Wayne-6, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2) I fear that they will tell us little. I have been carrying out some research into voting patterns overnight and will share my conclusions shortly, once I have collated them into something intelligible. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

02-09-2006, 06:32 PM	#10
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Some statistics ... You know, despite our best endeavours to spread the voting on Day 1, it is now looking very much (at least from my perspective) like not one vote was cast for a Wolf. And I suspect that the following Days were not much different. Let me explain how I have reached this conclusion. On Day 1, of 17 votes cast, 14 were for people that we now know to be innocent. That's 82% of the votes on Day 1 for known innocents! The remaining three votes were cast for me and Nilp. Since I am fairly certain of Nilp's innocence, that means that, from where I am standing, not one Wolf was voted for on Day 1. Day 2 was a bit better. Of 12 votes cast, 6 were for known innocent (50%), or seven from my perspective as one vote was cast for me. On Day 3, we had a relapse. Of 15 votes cast, 10 were for known innocents (66.6%), or 12 (80%) from my perspective. Overall, out of a total 44 votes cast over the three days, 30 have been for known innocents. That's 68%. For me, the figure rises to 34 (77%). Considering that not all of the votes for those whose identity is not yet known will have been for Wolves, it is clear that we do not have a very good strike rate. So, what does that tell us? 1. While voting patterns are normally of some help in finding Wolves, that is only the case when there are Wolves among those who are in the running and/or when we actually manage to find a Wolf. As matters stand, given our poor strike rate, the voting patterns are about as much use as a post by Formendacil. (That's unfair - he was actually rather constructive in the latter stages of yesterday. Although the comparison may not be so unfair, as there may be something we can learn from the voting patterns, as I hope to show.) 2. The number of innocents that a person has voted for is, in these circumstances, not a particularly useful guide for determining who might be a Wolf. Four of us have voted for three innocents (mormegil, dancing spawn, Garin and myself). I doubt that any more than one, at most, of these is a Wolf. Shelob, a known innocent, cast both of her votes for innocents. And Cailin, also a known innocent and our esteemed Ranger, cast two of her three votes for innocents. Two other villagers - Formendacil and Kath - have voted two out of three times for innocents. In fact, only two villagers have not voted for a known innocent - Glirdan and Naria. And I (although I alone) know that Glirdan has in fact voted for an innocent twice (with one "no vote"). 3. In light of the way that the voting has gone, there has been little need, if any, for Wolves to vote to go out of their way to get an innocent lynched. We have done that for them. I conclude from this that we should perhaps not be looking at those who have voted on a number of occasions for known innocents. In the circumstances of our past three days' voting, this would have been unnecessarily risky behaviour for the Wolves. It seems to me that they are much more likely to have been placing "safe" votes, since we have given them the opportunity to do just that. I acknowledge that these musings might be seen as self-serving, given that I have voted for three different known innocents. But I hope that you will see that there may be some merit in them. And perhaps they might actually help us to bag a Wolf today. More in a bit with my thoughts on individual villagers - for what they may be worth. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!