Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[mormegil]

I am not voting yet however I've been thinking on it a great deal and will make my intentions known. I think I will be voting for Formendacil, this could change if evidence is presented that sways me. The most frustrating part is that he is intelligent and is not helping. I find this very wolfish and I've been able to gauge him from past experience and he loves nothing more than to live on the edge. He has been insulting that we aren't doing anything and killing innocents yets doesn't help himself. At a minimum I think we will kill the cobbler at best we get a wolf. Either way it seems a win/win situation for us.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And this is possibly my last appearance here, so I'll vote afterwards.

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf? (morm)

Boy, I wish I were. With daga'y and Sauce trusting me, I might win this game.

But no. No. Not a Werewolf, unless you believe my first post. I just realised that smart people get more reps than funny but useless people in WW. So, call it greed.

Enedwaith . . . I've been thinking about the votings, and how utterly stupid we have been, so here's another nifty list. The persons within the list are arranged according to how I trust them.

People not yet voted for:

spawn
daga'y
Marco (don't know what to make of her.)
Glirdan
Kath
Gil

People who had received not more than one vote in a DAY:

malka
Naria
Form

People who had received more than one vote:

Nilp
Sauce
morm
Garin

I am quite certain that at least one Werewolf has never been voted for before.

I am also quite certain that there are at least two bad guys (Werewolf or Cobbler) in the first two lists.

Now, I also tried looking at the ties made/broken during the previous votings, and I came up with this interesting figures: Garin broke a tie thrice, all in 'favour' of a innocent.

Now, considering this and all my other previous analyses, these people are suspicious:

Garin
Form
Gil
Kath
Glirdan

I don't know . . . Glirdan I'll give another DAY, since I'm only suspicious of him mainly due to his SpM attacks and not much else.

Kath . . . Well, if she's a Werewolf, and she's the only one left, since she's gone, we win.

Garin, Form, or Gil . . . *deep breath*

What say we give Form a chance to redeem himself, and let's get Garin tomorrow instead?

++Gil-Galad

[mormegil]

The Saucepan Man 32
the guy who be short 25
Cailín 24
Garin 22
mormegil 21
Glirdan 20
malkatoj 14
dancing spawn of ungoliant 13
Nilpaurion Felagund 11
Kath 9
Valier 8
Gil-Galad 7
Aiwendil 6
Formendacil 6
Shelob 6
WaynetheGoblin 5
Naria 5
Márcolië Lamen 4
AbercrombieOfRohan 4


This is the total number of post up to this point. I find it moderately disturbing that there are so many that are being so quiet. I bolded the ones who make me the most nervous. It seems that there are only a handful of us who are speaking a good amount and only a few that are moderate speaker. Yet we get yelled at because we are trying to 'influence' the village. My problem is that lack of that attempt from so many of our quiet ones. I believe that they may be sitting back waiting for many of the loudmouths to kill each other off....basically I would like to hear more from a lot of people. It's hard to make a determination of people's guilt or innocence when about 50% of us don't speak sufficiently.

[Formendacil]

Dear, dear...

I seem to be making a good deal of mentions today, without actually heading up anyone's list of suspicions. Out of character, am I?

Well, perhaps... but who here actually knows what my character actually is! After all, the facade I have presented in all games thus far might be no more than playacting!

I regret that I cannot be online more often, so as to annoy you all the more... but work, sleep, and self-imposed Church commitments severely limit such things...

Morm says I like living on the edge. He's right, you know. And maybe, just maybe, I want to get pushed off for a change. This is the sixth Werewolf game out the last seven main ones that I've been a part of... Perhaps I want an early death so as to enjoy a breather ere I, like a druggie to weed, sign up for ANOTHER round.

Or, perhaps, I'm enjoying finally being an innocent again, and am using it do Nilpish, Gil-ish, Fea-ish, Lhuna-ish stuff that I'd never do as a serious Gifted.

Or, perhaps, I'm a very, very clever Werewolf. I am smart enough for it, you know.

All that I'm going to PROMISE you is that I'm not the Cobbler. I do want the Wolves dead, and any confusion I give you, except when pertaining to myself, is completely unintentional...

However, enough about me- even though I am the most important person around here- now it is time for a moment of analysis...

It being 1:30 am in my timezone, I shan't try and look deeply at everyone. Instead, I'll just make another comment or two regarding the Saucepan Man. Strange, how he keeps coming up.

Specifically, I want to present that facet of his gaming habits thus far that affects me the most, namely his suspicions concerning me.

Early toDAY, SPM said of me that he's still willing to accept my excuses, and to give me the benefit of the doubt. In fact, his entire attitude today has been one of tolerance towards my peccadillo-esque behaviour. I find this in opposition to his attitude of yesterday, where he was perhaps one of the less tolerant. In fact, he seems to me to have almost made an about face of opinion: almost as if, now that I've built up enough village-wide suspicion to be lynched, he wants to distance himself from me, so as to be able to claim, once I am lynched, that he had nothing to do with my death. Of course, such a trait would suggest that he is a Werewolf. It would also be proveable by my death... which I'd really rather pass on at the moment.

In brief conclusion, I have no more evidence regarding the Saucepan Man's innocence or guilt than I did before, but I lean towards Glirdanism in this matter....

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

YesterDay's votes:

Wayne -> Wayne
Gil -> Wayne
malkatoj -> Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce
mormegil -> Cailín
Nilp -> Cailín

It's a three-way tie between two known innocents and Sauce. Obviously Sauce won't vote for himself so...

Sauce -> Cailín
Naria -> Formendacil (Score: Cailín-3, Wayne-2, Sauce-2, Formendacil-1)

Yay, Naria can't been swayed. I'd still like to know what she thinks of other villagers because even though she gives reasons for her vote, it's pretty tough to analyze her when she doesn't show her opinions in public.

TGWBS -> mormegil

A new interesting theory is presented.

spawn -> Wayne
Garin -> Cailín (Score: Cailín-4, Wayne-3, Sauce-2, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)

Originally Posted by Nilp

Now, I also tried looking at the ties made/broken during the previous votings, and I came up with this interesting figures: Garin broke a tie thrice, all in 'favour' of a innocent.

Garin has indeed broken a tie thrice, but the ties have been between innocents (or himself), so it has been a lose-lose situation from the beginning.

Kath -> mormegil

At this point Cailín says she's the Ranger.

Formendacil -> Wayne

After Formendacil's vote, Cailín and Márcolië have to vote for Wayne in order to give the Ranger another night, so Márcolië's vote doesn't really tell anything.

Cailín -> Wayne
Márcolië -> Wayne

Final score: Wayne-6, Cailín-4, Sauce-2, mormegil-2, Formendacil-1.


I don't get it why Wayne voted for himself and hoped that the wolves would win if he was an innocent. *sigh*




And now, semi-traditionally, here's a brief summary of toDay's discussion.

mormegil: Says he's lacking confidence and is unsure what direction to go now. Thinks that Formendacil could be bluffing, but is hesitant to start accusing him after mistaking earlier. Wonders Nilp's helpfulness and finds it confusing, agrees with most of Sauce's thoughts, but isn't ready to consider as many people innocent as him, although mormegil thinks that TGWBS, Nilp and Kath are likely to be innocents. Won't let malkatoj off the hook just because of the Aiwendil vote, wonders Kath's reason to vote for him. Later says that might vote for Formendacil because of the presented arguments and because he's intelligent and still isnt helping. Thinks that he's a wolf or at least the Cobbler...

-There has been surprisingly much fuss about Formendacil today and I kind of understand why. However, some things he has said have made me think that he could be innocent villager after all. I don't know if I'm being stupid, stubborn or if I'm about to walk into a trap, but I'd let him live for now-

...Makes a list about how many times people have posted and suspects those who haven't posted much, would like to have the silent ones to talk more.

-I agree with this-

Gil: Has lost all hope, says that maybe people shouldn't listen to him anymore.

malkatoj: Says Cailín's death doesn't leave us any clues to follow, suspects TGWBS and spawn, but doesn't explain why. Is also growing suspicious of Gil because he isn't being helpful, but thinks it's more likely that he's the Cobbler, though. Much less suspicious of Sauce than before because of his good self-defense post.

Kath: Votes for mormegil for same reasons as yesterDay.

Sauce: Feels hesitant to start analysing because of the earlier mistakes, lists yesterDay's votes, but says they won't probably tell us much. Makes statistics about voting and says that perhaps we should look at those who have been casting safe votes instead of those who have voted for proven innocents multiple times...

-Well, this reflects the thoughts I had in my post #189, so I agree. It would be a good idea to take a look at people who haven't yet been under suspicion, anyway-

...Trusts Cailín's list of innocents (= Nilp, TGWBS, Glirdan, Kath], still believes that malkatoj's innocent and thinks that Formendacil's innocent, too, although he's aware that he might be bluffing. Ponders a trio of mormegil, spawn and Garin, but is hesitant to go after them now. Of the three, is most unsure of Garin although has no specific reason to suspect him. Thinks that there might be one or two wolves in that group, though.

Has no idea of Gil, says that his vote for Wayne was reasoned, can't say anything definite of Márcolië either. Main suspect at the moment is Naria because she hasn't voted for a known innocent, says that her vote for Formendacil might have been a wolf voting another wolf. Finds Nilp's thoughts interesting, says that the wolves have left the lynching of the innocents for the innocents themselves and are keeping quiet.

-I find Naria a bit unnerving, too, mostly because she won't share her thoughts-

Nilp: Analyses Day 1 and 2's votes pointing out two pairs: Kath & Garin and Glirdan & Formendacil, but says he finds the latter unconvincing, compares people's behaviour to previous games, says that Formendacil might be bluffing. Makes a list of people based on how many votes they have received, thinks there's a wolf among those who haven't had been voted for yet and two baddies in the first two lists. Is suspicious of Garin, Formendacil, Gil, Kath and Glirdan (whom he suspects because he attacked Sauce). Votes for Gil.

Glirdan: Says the Gifteds should remain hidden, is surprised that Sauce isn't dead yet and suspects him because of that. Says Sauce could be alive because he's a wolf or because he has suspected a wolf correctly. Thinks Gil's yesterDay's vote was odd as if he had been eager to get rid of another innocent. Votes for Gil.

Formendacil: Makes theories of his own behaviour, promises that he isn't the Cobbler, wonders how Sauce's attitude has changed and finds it werewolfish.

TGWBS: Is still really suspicious of mormegil for the same reasons as yesterDay. Thinks Márcolië, Naria, Garin, spawn, Formendacil, Sauce and Gil should be watched. Isn't suspicious of Glirdan anymore.



Votes thus far:

Kath -> mormegil
Nilp -> Gil
Glirdan -> Gil