Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Sauce

Tell me about it. I am convinced that I am destined never to be a Wolf. In fact, I am so used to playing a Villager now that I will probably make a dreadful Wolf as and when it does happen ...

Methinks I've found a perfect fellow wolf if I ever become one...

Originally Posted by tgwbw

I'd also like to keep him around - I want to see if I can manipulate him. I feel that I may be able to.

Ooh...scaaaary...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Methinks I've found a perfect fellow wolf if I ever become one...

You had your chance! You know what I mean

I've been meaning to say I always thought I would make a good cobbler because playing normally makes me a good cobbler.

[Gil-Galad]

one thing that puzzles me was when morm said to lynch saucey, and i noted that morm is a cobbler and garin a wolf, then gari nand glirdy said i was playing dumb


i'm confused?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

one thing that puzzles me was when morm said to lynch saucey, and i noted that morm is a cobbler and garin a wolf, then gari nand glirdy said i was playing dumb


i'm confused?

Well I had already proclaimed myself as the cobbler and everybody knew it, or so we thought. So it seemed that you didn't notice my proclamation and made the observation yourself. Being that nobody would listen to me any way, not even Garin seemingly, I was being facetious and coy.

[the guy who be short]

I would appreciate some advice on how to avoid lynching. I have been warned not to change my habits but I have had to do so out of neccessity. This is actually the longest I've made it as both a villager and an wolf, so maybe it is isn't so bad.
I am willing to pull a bluff and take out one of my detractors-- Valier or Cailin.
Marcolie might be a good idea, Form might be a cobbler.
I want the cursed so bad. We will surely win if we succceed in that lottery.
TGWBS voted against one of us, it ended up being a good bluff. I'm glad it didn't start a bandwagon.
So, who is our next feast my furry partners? (Garin)

I don't really know what to tell ya Garin, I realize that work should be first but in making your decision to do your work it has made people suspicious. You must admitt that the way that you are playing this game is NOT at all the way that you play other games....In saying that I don't know how some people can fly below the radar the whole game ie: Malka. She made a huge mistake and voted for a dead guy! Then retracted her vote. I thought that we weren't allowed to do that no matter what excuse.
Anyway, I'd like to get rid of Cailin and Morm they are both onto us. However this would cast direct suspision on us if we do kill either one of them right now....thoughts? (Naria)

I want to keep morm around because he probably thinks I am an innocent and will not vote for me. I am willing to take down Cailin even though it will cast suspicion upon me, I don't care, it is always upon me. (Garin)

The thing with voting for Cailin is that she didn't put you(Garin) in her post but me and TGWBS in. I would love to get rid of her though....she's too close for comfort. And what is up with Form? (Naria)

Naria, my dear I believe Cailin VOTED for me. If she is truly going after all of us, I say good riddance. As for Form, maybe a cobbler? Maybe just has an ego and help when Sauce takes over. (Garin)

Do either of you know if SPM acts like he is in most games that he is in? Like he is trying to take over...

I guess it wouldn't really matter if Cailin dies then. Don't really know who else right now. Maybe I'll go check and see. (Naria)

Hello guys (generically, of course, Naria ),

Naria, I voted for you because:

1) It was safe, but I can say it wasn't. It was early and made you equalise with the others, but you were unlikely to develop into a bandwagon and get voted for.

2) It will help us. If either of us two should die, we can point to this to take some pressure off of us.

Now, we need a plan for you tomorrow. I need to keep enough pressure on you continually that, if the need should develop, I can vote for you, but also not enough pressure for me to go ahead with it now.

Here's what I think your defence should be:

You voted at such a time that it was almost certain your vote would be the last. In this case, you could either cement Abercrombie's death - give reasons why you didn't want to - or cast a vote that would not alter the outcome at all. You did the latter, voting for who you believe to be most guilty, at the time.

This will allow me to take pressure off you for your "throwaway" vote as, in reality, there was little you could do. The best defence for voting for Nilp is this: You don't know whether he's innocent or guilty, and he has the perfect bluff if he is a wolf. Therefore, it is safest to lynch him.

Now, Naria, wolves are also infamous for sticking around near the end to vote. You must try not to do this tomorrow.

In addition, try to post more - I don't want people to be able to cast suspicion on you due to your quietness.

That is all.


Garin, I feel you are doomed... I will give some thought to how you should act tomorrow once I've looked at possible people we could kill tonight.
And yeah, I screwed up with Aiwendil... (TGWBS)

I couldn't get on at all yesterday because I didn't have a computer and everything set up on it till after the deadline. I KNOW that that is gunna come back and bite me in the butt. Hopefully not too hard
TGWBS--So you are going to mention me in today's post? That is why I should bring up voting for Nilp? I went through all of the posts from everyone and am really confused right now.
Cailin looks like she might get lynched today, came pretty close between her and Shelob yesterday. And a few people are suspicous of her. Now should we eat her tonight or let the village deal with her? Her and Morm are really the only one's that have us in there sights and because of this I think one of them should die tonight....thoughts? (Naria)

Righto. I've had a quick look over what's been happening, what you guys have said, and what the village did, once again. For the record:

1. Malkatoj - Nilp (Malkatoj - 1)
2. Kath - malkatoj (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1)
3. Garin - Valier (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1)
4. Cailin - mormegil (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1)
5. Shelob - SpM (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1)
6. Naria - TGWBS (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1; Naria - 1)
7. Shelob - spawn (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1)
8. SpM - Formen (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
9. Garin - Cailin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
10. Valier - Kath (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
11. Cailin - Shelob (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
12. Shelob - Garin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 3; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
Did not vote Gil Galad, Glirdan, Marcolie Lamen, wayne, Naria

Naria, you will need to come up with an excuse for not voting. Computer problems would be good.

Killing Cailin - Perhaps. She feels I am innocent, but casts suspicion on Naria early on and votes Garin. Two out of three. So I support killing her if you feel you need to. Garin, you can claim this is a set up to make you look guilty, but be careful not to do so until it is brought up. The thing is, morm suspects Cailin, and indeed voted for her. Leaving her in could fuel antagonism. There is also ill will between Cailin and spawn that we could manipulate - I feel strongly.

Killing Valier - Perhaps. I think people may find her style a little annoying, and indeed, Kath voted for her. Leaving her could also fuel antagonism. I'm more in favour of killing her than Cailin simply because, with Cailin, we can manipulate the situation. Mormegil also suspects her, so there is potential there...

Morm - I don't agree with killing him. He is respected, but wrong quite a lot. The statement where he suspects you and I, Naria, is questionable - indeed, I have already questioned him, and if he brings it up tomorrow, will do so again. This makes that case weak. I support leaving him in.

SpM - Yes, often leads debate.

Formen - Might be the cobbler, agreed.

Now, mormegil, both Garin and I are in favour of leaving. So he lives.

This leaves Valier and Cailin. If you both agree with killing Cailin, I'll go along with it. But I see a lot of potential for conflict betwixt innocents if we leave her. As for Valier, if you both agree, I'll also go with that, I have few strong opinions.

What I think we should do is capitalise on the confusion in the village. The vast range of votes cast shows that people don't know what to think. Though some people are onto us, they are in a minority.

The best way to capitalise on the confusion is to kill another person who won't reveal much. Glirdan, Marcolie, Gil Galad, wayne come to mind.

But perhaps the worst thing for us is malkatoj. Her vote has made her seem innocent in the eyes of all. Having somebody so widely trusted is dangerous - the villagers could rally around her. In any case, killing her will leave more suspects in the village than leaving her.

So, in order, I support killing:
Malka,
Marcolie / wayne
Cailin / Valier

Please reply ASAP (TGWBS)

I was thinking that it would be a little premature to get rid of Cailin right now, looks like she might do a better job of killing herself(lynched) than we would. And would it not cast direct suspicion of Garin and I? I will leave her alone for now.
I agree with the people that you have listed. I'm thinking Glirdan might be a gifted...which one I'm not too sure. Form could very well be our Cobbler. So we should get rid of the ones that would not help the villagers for the next day. I will go with Valier however she did vote for Garin, maybe one of the others? Any one of those you listed TGWBS is good for me. I also had most of them on my list.
I will try to defend myself the best I can without being overly defensive. If you mention Nilp I will attack you(shorty). I don't know if it would be a good idea to bring Nilp up again, unless you wanted people to really look at me. It worked last game... (Naria)

Naria - I will indeed be attacking you tomorrow. It would seem inconsistent not to - I will bring your vote up early, if possible.

You should retaliate defensively. Please don't attack me though. It would create a horrible situation in which the likelihood of one of us being lynched would rise exponentially. It's safer for you to stick to a defence, and me to accept it, hold you in suspicion, but move on elsewhere.

So, Naria and I are agreed on killing Valier, Glirdan, malka, marcolie, wayne.

So far, Garin has shown interest in killing Valier. The best thing to do now is to wait for Garin to appear and share his thoughts on these villagers.

Naria, do you have an particular preference out of the five above? Could you perhaps put them in order, and then Garin could do the same, and then we could decide? (TGWBS)

Malkatoj? I thought her vote makes her look guilty, but what do I know.
I would go for
1)Valier
2)Ang
3)Malk (Garin)

Garin - Ang(uirel) isn't playing!

Malka's vote has widely made her seem innocent because people feel a wolf wouldn't make such a mistake.

So, Garin, perhaps a revised list without Ang and with the other four people mentioned as candidates - Marcolie, Glirdan, Wayne, Gil - and then we we could make comparisons and decide? (TGWBS)

Valier, sounds like this is one dead villager today
TGWBS please don't back me into to tight of a corner today from which I cannot get out of concerning Nilp....

Preferences: Valier
Malka
Cailin
Glirdan
Wayne
Marcolie
In this order. (Naria)

Valier tops two lists, so it looks like it's her. Before we finalise, though, give me a few minutes to analyse any potential outcomes of her death. (TGWBS)

I meant Cailin not Ang, for some reason I keep wanting to call her that, I've almost done it in the game. (Garin)

Here are possible outcomes and plans for the death o Valier:

1) Kath voted for Valier. This will make her seem more innocent, and she will turn her thoughts elsewhere. She could really go anywhere, though she thinks spawn is innocent. A bit of a wildcard really.

2) Valier voted for Garin. As soon as this is mentioned, you must shake it off as a double bluff, Garin. "I already got votes, then this, it's a set up," etc. This works well as you are the only one she mentioned yesterday.

That's it really. I doubt people will look back to Day 1, when Valier voted for Wayne, and Formen, morm and Garin voted for Valier.

Seeing as we are all in accord, I will PM Menel in an hour's time - this should be enough time to raise any worries or thoughts you guys might have about killing her. (TGWBS)

...and Guy try to go easy on Naria. I don't think it is really necessary to continue the accusations unless is brought up again. Be consistent but don't get the girl lynched.
Wish me luck... and the best of luck to you two. (Garin)

C'est tout. Looking back, it's annoying how close we came to killing Malka and Glirdan so early on.

[Glirdan]

Sheez! If you would have gotten rid of me that Night, I would have taken SpM with me!! Then you guys would have really won!

Garin, I take it you didn't attack me because you thought I was going to continue hunting you at Night even though I said for two days in a row that I thought you were just a very framed up innocent? Well, you could have because I didn't hunt you. That's what I love about being the Hunter. People don't know whom you will decide to hunt!!

Now, thinking back on everything that happened, if you guys would have attacked Cailin on Night 3 and then me on Night 4 and you could won...barely.

Well, this was an awsome game and the next game is going to be even better! Thanks for a great game everyone!!!

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

You had your chance! You know what I mean

Go rub it in, will you?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Are you perhaps implying, Nilp, that you have merely killed me to be louder than me for once, huh? (Cailín otR)

No, I assure you I didn't. I just pointed out the fact that I ended up posting more than you. Kinda surprised of that myself.

Oh, and thanks for my Personal Cobbler, although I didn't need it this time. (spawn)

I must be a moderating influence, eh?

Re: Werewolf conversations. Wow, that's a lot of Nilp there . . . no wonder I kept on tripping and sneezing and biting my tongue.

I ddn't spot Nilp's message until Day 2 but, when I did, I really could not resist responding in kind. And it proved effective, since Nilp and I pretty much trusted each other from there on in.

Sauce, how about we talk by anagrams the next game?

Hey, has anyone ever find out where I got Bethiril and Narvi, son of Gimli from? Extra points to whoever who tells me correctly . . .

[Cailín]

Sheez! If you would have gotten rid of me that Night, I would have taken SpM with me!! Then you guys would have really won!

Ah, you are wrong there, Glirdy. Since I knew you were going to hunt Sauce, I specifically PM-ed Menel to ask whether I could protect from Hunter attacks as well. He told me I could, so if the wolves had decided to kill you, I would still have protected Sauce. Though that would have been a rather awkward situation!

Interesting read, those PMs. I see you had full confidence in me being able to get myself lynched. Good for us you decided not to kill Malkatoj, but I still think Valier was a pretty good call that night. With all the loudmouths still alive, things were bound to explode.

[Lhunardawen]

Been reading the 'cross sticks again, and I just felt I should say that Nilp and SpM, you are such Lhunatics.

Wait.

[the guy who be short]

Night 4! And the sneaky thoughts of Garin and Naria.

Well it's obvious who will die tonight, we can't let an admitted gifted live. It just isn't right.
I am doing better than I thought, I am still alive and flushed out a good guy and not one vote against me today. I know I will suspected as a wolf but what else is new?
So far I think our chances are good. We've gone this far without a casualty.
Some mods say if a cursed is lynched most don't I think.
Mormegil looks to be the prime candidate for lynching for the next day, I'll probobaly be second, Sauce might be in there because I back him up.
Who is the seer though... Kath? (Garin)

I can't believe that all three of us wolves are still here! Especially you Garin. Would it surprise you if Marcolie was a gifted? Wouldn't surprise me in the least. But I don't suspect her of anything let alone a gifted, so I digress.

OK, so that was fun!not. I don't believe that Cailin could pull off a bluff like that so I say we kill the village Ranger tonight. And maybe Morm tomorrow (i know Garin, but I think he might be the Hunter)

So far it looks like we are safe for now.... (Naria)

Morm - Definitely we need to feast on ranger tomorrow. I think Cailin was telling the truth, she struck me as a gifted from the very first. I think Morm will be lynched by the village during the day if all goes well. I've been sucking up to SpJ and defended him so I hope I am safe from his vote. I plan on being a top suspect. Somehow I managed to almost get my nemesis lynched and tonight she dies. TGWBS is sitting pretty, everyone has vouched for him it seems. Naria should look out for Kath, but i think she'll survive the day.
I think I can manage to survive the next day unless the seer becomes blatant and I hope he or she does. I've surely been dreamed of...
Do you really think Morm is the Hunter, Naria?
I won't? vote for him because I think he considers me innocent. He is a perennial ordo and probably can't imagine that I'd be a wolf two times out of three games. I have no problems with offing him if he makes it another day. I just think he'll be Mr Suspicious and will likely get the rope.

Maybe we can be revolutionaries and not kill the admitted gifted. We know who she is and no she can't protect herself. We or you two could finish her off the next night. I would only go for this if we get a decent scent of a seer. This would knock over the village if we did this.
Marcolie as gifted, if she is she is doing a crappy job, or maybe a good one.
As I have said as long as werewolves win, I am happy.
Who is the seer for pete's sake? (Garin)

Keeping Cailin alive for one more day! Great minds think alike I guess. After I sent my pm out to you guys I started thinking 'what if we keep her alive, wouldn't that throw the village off--toy with them shall we say'. We would have something new to talk about other than he said she said and bantering. Then kill her in the next night. hmmm just something to think about.

I really don't get the feeling that either one of us are going to get lynched in the next couple of days *cross fingers*. and yes TGWBS is in clear for some reason(good though). Garin--Just keep doing what you are doing, don't change anything and hope for the best, that 's what I'm doing.

well let me know what you two think and get back to me. I will kill her tonight as well; the other was an idea (Naria)

It is a bold move Naria but if Cailin were to survive the night it would turn suspicion back onto her. The only problem is that she is protecting someone and if her choice survives our kill she will be vindicated. So we need a Seer bad, It could be one of the silents that are afraid of becoming wolf bait. Marc, Gil. Glirdan, Kath you know very well she will be thinking of someone to protect. If Morm is the hunter he will not be taking me out. But if we take Morm out, I will be be the king of suspicion. Someone must have dreamt of us, namely me. I am wolf-boy, or so it seems. But the first few dreams might have been of veterans. So... I thing SpM, Morm and Form are not seers.... It brings us to the others. Who? I will await replies.

Kath or Malkatoj? Maybe we can even bag the cursed. It is quite the gamble. I think our current sear is afraid of us but will become bolder as she has more dreams.... Maybe SpM is the cobbler although Form seems to fit the bill. (Garin)

First sentence: Does it really matter if suspicion is cast back onto her? Either us or the village she'll die.
Second sentence:If she does turn out to be vindicated then we can still kill her that night, can we not?
Third sentence: I agree that we need the seer, but as of now I don't know whom that could be. If we stick to our list Glirdan would be the next one. or Cailin
Fourth sentence:Why would you be the king of suspicion if we take Morm out? I haven't seen anything that has happened with you two in the game, I don't get this one

I'll go and check the thread and see if I can come up with some seerisms

I get the Morm thing now thanks. and I get the Cailin thing too However, I got to think'n again and if we don't kill her then wouldn't she know four ordo's? Herself, the Hunter and the two she has already protected assuming that I'm right on this and assuming the two ordo's are ordo's.

It would be neat to see her squirm though and everyone else baffled Sorry if I seem a bit evil tonight it must be the changing back and forth--Wolf to human and back.... (Naria)

First off, morm is NOT the Hunter. Hunter and Ranger can communicate. That means we need to find an ally of Cailin if we are to find the hunter.

I recommend killing off Cailin. While she did get a few votes, I don't think there's any real suspicion against her. I think the village would realise the trick and not fall for it.

In addition, if we kill the Ranger, the Seer has so protection whatsoever and cannot declare themself without certain death. I say, Ranger today, Seer or Hunter tomorrow. (TGWBS)

I had already mentioned killing her tonight in my last pm. So sure, I'll have Ranger for supper!
I don't understand Morm NOT being the Hunter. How do you know this? I mean unless you have talked outside of the game how is there anyway of really knowing who is what right now? He very well could be an ordo, but I was just looking at possibilities.

In your second paragraph; the village not falling for the trick--do you mean that having little suspicion that there would be more if she were kept alive? If so wouldn't that be a good thing? It's either they kill her or if they have caught on and keep her alive we'll kill her next night (Naria)

Hunters

Cailin was the Ranger, that's easy enough to grasp. But the Hunter and the Ranger are in cahoots - they may PM each other and organise themselves as a force.
However, unlike the werewolves, they have no hidden agenda. This means neither would ever vote for the other. Their job is not to confuse us wolves, but to work together and convince villagers to their side.

Morm has consistently voted for Cailin, meaning it is impossible for him to be Hunter. We can also strike Nilp and SpM off this list.

Cailin claims her innocent list is as follows: Nilp, TGWBS, Glirdan, Kath, SpM (?)

This means either Glirdan or Kath is the hunter. I support Kath.

Quite interestingly, I have accidentally portrayed myself as a potential Hunter. Though I will deny this, people will doubtless presume it. So it is perhaps beneficial keeping Kath alive for the moment for my sake, though if she starts seriously suspecting an innocent (not morm, he will be killed tomorrow) we could kill her and get two in one.


Why Cailin must be killed

The Seer. If Cailin were to live, and the Seer to dream of one of us, the Seer could openly declare this and be safe in the knowledge that they would have another Night to dream about somebody. As the game progresses, this would be incredibly bad for us.

Whereas, if the Seer comes out after Cailin's death, they get an automatic death. It's much better that way.

Naria, PLEASE talk more tomorrow. The village will eventually tire and lynch you. If you want, analyse people. I will analyse Garin tomorrow, but you can pick some random people. Just say something... We can't have you killed for silence.


Wayne

That wayne is not the cobbler is quite simply remarkable, considering his behaviour. So much so that I will PM Menel after this PM to make sure...

However, this means Formen probably is the cobbler. Good thing we didn't kill him off at the start...

Also, good job we kept Cailin in, eh Garin?


I'll PM again soon with potential Seers and plans for tomorrow, but I'm adamant that we should kill of Cailin. (TGWBS)

I've already said that I won't analyse or read between the lines. I try my best to come up with theories and suggestions other than that I really do think that most in the village do a great job with analysing. I don't know what that would accomplish anyway. The village would read somthing that they have already read, possibly a few times. I am open to suggestions on how to go about doing this without doing a HUGE boring post.

We shall kill Cailin tonight then. Done.

If we both think that Form is the Cobbler, should we keep him alive and see what he does in the next couple of days? Depending on what he "says" today, I might vote for him again. (Naria)

Naria asked why Guy knew Morm was not the hunter. That is when I remembered a very hunteresque post by Nilp (The Guy's friend) that he had sent to Sauce. No time to post it. Something along the lines of...if you are lying I will shoot yoy with an arrow.
If Guy knows of a gifted. I don't know. It is unfortunate and I hope we don't have that dilemna.
Naria, try to speak up without going overboard. I declared that the silents as the enemy as has The Guy so to be consistent we need help from you. I hope Morm dies by the village's hand tomorrow.
Sorry it took so long to get back but I explained that already.
I had so many other good points but I haven't the time anymore.
Who is PMing the vote.
Cailin, I assume, Is the dead one. (Garin)

Nilp cannot be the Hunter. He voted for Cailin. The Hunter would never vote for his partner in any circumstances.

I have PMed Menel with Cailin's death. (TGWBS)