WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Roa_Aoife]

I agree with Nogrod. This is getting rediculous! We have nothing to go on because no one will talk. How can we expect to catch the wolves like this? I for one am going back to study Folwren's posts and see what he came up with. I invite you all to go back and see what you can find. PLEASE.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Firefoot. Thanks Firefoot.

[Valier]

Wow I was not expecting that! Our Ranger and our Hunter! Well so much has been going on...Not

Ok so here are my thoughts:

Gandalf did not vote again! I think there should be a penalty for not voting two nights in a row. We know Jenny was busy.

Hmmmm I still think there is always key players like I said earlier, but most of the time they are just loud innocents. My vote yesterday for Mith was sort of random, I just think she could be a clever wolf. I also hadn't heard much from her defending herself or posting any ideas until after I had already voted.

Oh yea I promised a little dance for not killing me!(*does some weird Jig*)

Ok well it is really important that we do not kill another innocent today! We should lynch someone who has posted a fair bit and we can get a slight grasp on. The quiet ones are too risky to lynch now, we can't afford another mistake.

[Roa_Aoife]

Folwren's activity-
Day 1
Notes Jenny is overly aggressive and Sleepy is overly nice. Defends Firefoot. Points out Valier's contradiction. Advises against Bandwagoning. Decides to let Gandalf be. Votes Valier.

Day 2
Still highly suspects Jenny. Believes she knows who the seer is. States that there is still information to discuss. Does a quick analysis of everyone. (Doesn't like Elu's or Valier's lack of meaningful posts. Trusts Firefoot. States Eonwe is careful. Says Mith seems reasonable. Wants to give Jenny the benefit of the doubt. Roa is like Mith, but uncertain. No comment on Gandalf. Unsure of Sleepy. Doubts Nogrod.) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I couldn't find a vote.

[Firefoot]

Valier - there could be a couple of different reasons why Mith is not defending herself to you: a) she has nothing to hide or b) she does not feel there have been any accusations concrete enough for her to defend to. To be honest, you didn't provide a lot of evidence, only that she was a key player who talked a reasonable amount. If someone voted for me on that evidence, I would say that you're right. But that doesn't make someone a wolf. I don't think there's really much Mith could have said to you.

But I do agree that Gandalf needs to get more involved in this game. Sorry if this seems rude, but if you're not going to contribute and you're not going to vote, what is the point of playing in the first place?

[Nogrod]

To Firefoot’s criticism of last night’s decision I would comment, that you could try it better yourself in half-an-hour. It’s always easy to be a smart guy when looking from a distance, in a sense of a) examing the acts afterwards with all the time to use b) not having to do it oneself. And I still defend my vote, at least from one point of view: I had more belief in Jenny’s innocence than Sleepy’s or Valier’s. After the first days rampage as a total newbie, she has been much less suspectable than those others. Without our vote last night, she would have been killed. It’s totally another thing, that I’m really sorry about Sleepy: it was his birthday (in RL) indeed! And of course I can’t be sure of Jenny’s outright innocence either. With this situation, it is more or less a question of more or less. One can’t be sure about anyone.

Kind of asking you Firefoot: on what premises do you base your “safe”-list? On what grounds do you give Roa and Mith a status of “propable innocense”? The point being: on what actual grounds do you draw the line between propable innocense for THREE villagers (just accidentally the number of the wolves...), and leave the rest susceptible?

I really would like to hear your points for common consideration.

Anyhow, we need to stick together and really think. We have taken a bad beating to begin with. A really bad one. Now let us join arms! As I said earlier: I do believe our werewolves are quite cunning and smart. I also do believe, that at least one or two of them, propably all three, are playing actively against the very few of us. They are playing a good game, we are not.

So one thing I would like everyone to consider very carefully. Be suspicious of bandwagoneering this day! There are three wolves who can build their case and the mood for lynching an innocent again. So use your brain, not your “hunches” or impressive, succesive case-building.

And I do have to disagree with Firefoot on still one more matter. This is the seer’s best conduct now. The game has advanced to a such a critical phase, that our seer should start giving us a bit more clearer hints. That of course depending on her/his wealth of knowledge. At this later point I agree with Firefoot. But the limits I would set a bit differently. It propably is not so much a question about how many are dead, but about how many wolves / actively participating innocent’s is she/he knowledgeable of, and which links she/he has managed to see on grounds of this information on both ways. If there is a strong case to be made for even two wolves and a suspicion of a third, she/he should propably go on. Otherwise we’ll just lose our days – and at worst kill her/him this night, misled by our bandwagoning wolves! After her/his death we can read her/his texts with enough care to make the right decisions. If it turns out, that either Elu or Gandalf has been our seer, with considerable knowledge of the situation, I will personally strangle them mentally – even behind the curtains of the second death of the WW-game grave!

So everyone at the defence and beware of the wolves among us!

One wish for everyone. Most importantly for you, who post irregularily. Inform us, when is the last time you are able to make your votes. Today it will be crucial! If we don’t kill a WW today, we really are in deep trouble – as we wouldn’t be already...

Cross-posted with three earlier ones (=hadn't read them before sending this one)

[Nogrod]

Oh.

Just to answer my own question: I can be voting at the dead-line. It's 11pm. around here that time. Now I would need some RL sleep...

[Nogrod]

To be considered by everyone. (Well, you wolves can read this too. But you already know this...)

The wolves will not propably dare to vote for each other this day. And if no wolf is being threatened, they propably split their vote. But if even one of them is strongly suspected, they will make a defence; if even one of them is voted, you'll soon see a couple of votes to someone else (or a second to someone that already has one vote) appear. If things keeps tight, the wolwes just can't afford staying out of the climax this evening... So we'll have to be there too: as many of us that just can.

So postpone your vote, anyone who just have the possibility! If it is not absolutely necessary, don't vote before you really have to.

Remember: at the worst scenario, we may have three votes against one innocent (the seer, f.ex.!).

By falling into their trap this day, we surely lose. We run out of days to lynch those bastards...

To add: I have a feeling, that I have striked on something after Folwren's death. I still have to get some sleep first, but I hope you are here at about 8 am (GMT), and had not cast your votes yet. If I'm accused by certain people, don't you anyone go defending me: we just can't afford that defence-argument for the wolves, so that they could convince even one innocent eye to go astray now.

We can't afford clumsy or random votes, not to talk of evil-informed ones!

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, trying to get a little more discussion.

Folwren thought Valier was guilty, but later eased up on her, chiding both her and Elu for the same offence. She didn't trust Nogrod. She really suspected Jenny. She trusted Firefoot implicitly, though she never stated why. I wish I had asked her reasoning.

If I'm accused by certain people, don't you anyone go defending me: we just can't afford that defence-argument for the wolves, so that they could convince even one innocent eye to go astray now.

Oh well that's nice. Now if anyone accusses you, everyone will think that person is a wolf! The rest of your reasoning is great, but really, that was an unecessary add on. All I have to say is that your return info had better be good.

As for my own suspicions, I didn't want to pursue it yesterday in the interest of fairness, but I don't trust Elu. He hasn't been helpful at all, he didn't vote Day 1, he attacked Valier quite viciously on Day 2, and provided little reason for his attack except frothiness. He never came up with anything new. And his vote for Jenny yesterday was more than questionable. Especially since after he voted for her, he said he wouldn't accuse her out right. I understand the time contraints, really I do, but after the attack of Valier, to change his mind so quickly, it does draw attention.

[Firefoot]

Nogrod - first off, a very fair post. It does alleviate some of my suspicion for you (not that there's that much. The line between suspicious people and innocent people is very fine. There just hasn't been enough to judge from).

I'm not really blaming you for choosing Sleepy; I just meant that I would have done differently. It stands to reason that different people are going to have different opinions and suspicions, as well as different ideas about how the wolves will play. You did what you did; now we move on.

As for my "safe" list - as I said earlier, that line is very fine. But I am trying to narrow it down to focus on a smaller number of individuals, and so far both Roa and Mithalwen have consistently seemed genuinely helpful. I have been able to follow all of their arguments and decisions. They just do not seem guilty to me; not much has changed with those two since I posted my analysis on early Day 2.

on what actual grounds do you draw the line between propable innocense for THREE villagers (just accidentally the number of the wolves...)

Um, do you really think that if I was a wolf I would be so foolish to put my fellow wolves on my innocent list? I would call any wolf that did that brave, stupid, or both.

Just to clarify... I was not saying that the seer should come out. I was exploring the possibility, trying to figure out our best chance to catch a wolf would be. The way I was looking at it, if the seer knew three living innocents, plus themself, that would leave us with only five unknowns with three of those five being wolves. Considerably better odds. However, with our ranger being gone, we would also be guaranteed to lose our seer during the night. Look at my wording again: "I might almost see some validity in the seer revealing themselves." I wasn't arguing for it, just putting an idea out there. But also to the seer: if you are about to be lynched today - don't let it happen. That would be the worst thing, for us to lynch our seer. Or if it's too late, don't go without telling us who your dreams were - please...

I definitely do agree with you about your point of if one of our lesser contributing members is seer... you'll have to race me to strangle them...

At any rate, Nogrod, you are seeming a lot more sensible and I'm following you a lot better today than I have been. I probably won't be voting for you tonight. As an aside, my vote should come at a much more convenient time toDay, with it being the weekend. I should be able to vote much closer to the deadline than I have been.

The wolves will not propably dare to vote for each other this day. And if no wolf is being threatened, they propably split their vote. But if even one of them is strongly suspected, they will make a defence; if even one of them is voted, you'll soon see a couple of votes to someone else (or a second to someone that already has one vote) appear. If things keeps tight, the wolwes just can't afford staying out of the climax this evening... So we'll have to be there too: as many of us that just can.

I have to disagree with you on this one. The odds are looking very good for the wolves right now. I would not be surprised if the wolves did dare to go after their own today if it seemed necessary. It seems to me that the most obvious way for a wolf to reveal themselves is to try and save a fellow wolf, especially while the game is running strongly in their favor.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, in reply to you Firefoot, I would like to point out that if I was a wolf, I wouldn't have killed Folwren if he though me guilty. It's like saying "Look at me! I'm a wolf!" I don't know if I would have killed him since he thought me innocent, but it seems better to have people around that don't want you dead. Just a thought. It seems more likely that he would be killed by an "iffy" if that makes any sense. (I'm kind of shooting in the dark with this- I've never been a wolf before, so I don't know exactly what I would do.)