Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Boromir88]

Werewolves you say? Why this was like the last village I was at...Salem I believe it was. I authorized 12 lynchings and one man to be crushed, alas I had to call an end to it all because it turned out the whole town went into hysteria and everyone was being accused of lyncanthropy. If I hadn't put an end to the madness everyone in the village surely would have been lynched. I shall do my part and authorize all lynchings if though shalt offer substantial proof of werewolvery.

Lmp don't use these desperate times to further the thickness of your wallet, a good noose is much better than any of your silver devices.

[tar-ancalime]

*shouts from 100 yards away*

No silver knife for me. No noose neither. I'm safe from the wolves--none of you will go near me, so why should they?

How many times do I have to tell you, it's EX-leper!

[Aiwendil]

Oh! The knives are five gold coins a piece.

Five gold coins for a knife? Madness, I tell 'ee. Still, I've half a mind to take one. Only I hope that Boromir's right, the wolves get the noose, and the knife will be used solely on vegetables!

Now, I know we don't have much to go on as yet. But it seems to me that random accusations and similar nonsense will only help the Wolves. Meseems the sooner we get down to some serious discussion, the better the chances of our village surviving.

With that in mind, I offer a few questions for all to consider in the hope that they may provoke some useful discussion of villager strategy.

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.

Any thoughts?

And by the way, Wolves, to quote a famous Hobbit, I cook better than I cook, if you see what I mean.

[littlemanpoet]

Good questions, Aiwendil.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I offer a few questions for all to consider in the hope that they may provoke some useful discussion of villager strategy.

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

For starters, such helpful questions as these lead me to suspect your innocence. By contrast, I have found that werewolves find it difficult to put on the act of innocence, and their guilt can often be read between the lines of what they say when they "suspect" others. Also, some werewolves tend to explain their strategy by means of conjecturing how they "suppose" a werewolf might think. These aren't definites, but they help me lean toward suspicion, if you take my meaning.

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

I've already spoken regarding the Seers: stay hidden, both of you. Make very, very subtle hints that can be referred to should you be killed. I agree with your advice otherwise.

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.

That seems reasonable to me; that way, the werewolves will be forced to vote in a telling way. However, five or six? That may spread things too thin, maybe? I don't know.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Also, some werewolves tend to explain their strategy by means of conjecturing how they "suppose" a werewolf might think. These aren't definites, but they help me lean toward suspicion, if you take my meaning.

I disagree that trying to discover wolves by empathatic thought experiment is necessarily wolvish. It can simply be an effective way of exploiting what we know of character and likely strategy to our benefit.

I agree with the...ex-lepress...on the state of affairs of our Seers. True Seers and False Seers, whoever they be, speak with manifold, contorted tongues. It is by stout steel and cunning that we will defeat these wolves, not mumbling, confused riddles! Let us regard ourselves as a village without a Seer.

We'll make them regret they ever picked this place for raiding!

[Lhunardawen]

Let us regard ourselves as a village without a Seer.

While I very well agreed to this, I wonder how the lycans will play this up. Any conjectures? They might help, they just might.

[Lhunardawen]

Perhaps I could answer my own question.

Naturally even as we speak they are on the hunt for the Seers. Yes, I think both of them, because none of us know which is which. I suppose they'd be doing off the "careful" ones first. And they'll take advantage of the Seers' quietness so they won't be able to reveal anything before they are killed.

Should we be wary, then, of those who call out the Seers or express disagreement to tar-ancalime's proposition? Or is this actually some sort of a lupine tactic (not that I'm suspecting the ex-leper)? Hmm...

[tar-ancalime]

originally posted by the Lhuminous Princess:

Should we be wary, then, of those who call out the Seers or express disagreement to tar-ancalime's proposition?

While it's always wise to suspect those who disagree with me (and it's a method I often employ, in Gaurhoth as in life), I wouldn't go that far here, Lhuna. I don't want to create any kind of cut-and-dried loyalty-oath-like environment: those are the easiest situations for wolves to wriggle out of.

Village: Let's suspect anyone who calls out the Seer!
Wolves: Hey guys, let's stop talking about the Seer!

or, perhaps,

Village: Let's trust anyone who posts in blank verse!
Wolves: We're innocent, we're innocent, we say!
So please believe us, for the love of God!

I stand by what I said earlier, but I don't think we can make any bold declarations about what we do or don't find suspicious--unless we're being a little duplicitous ourselves.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I disagree that trying to discover wolves by empathatic thought experiment is necessarily wolvish. It can simply be an effective way of exploiting what we know of character and likely strategy to our benefit.

I've fallen behind but will catch up, responding to one post at a time.

As to your rebuttal to me retort, Anguirel, I was saying that it helps me lean. By itself it is not enough, but in concert with other signs it ways the more heavily.

[The Saucepan Man]

Enter THE SAUCEPAN MAN, Viscount Kettle and Fourth Earl of Lower Churdlecombe-in-the-Wold, Stage Right.

Zounds! Well that's just great isn't it!? I journey all this way from fair Albion, far away over the water, to meet with your resident mad scientist and part-time local dignitary. And forsooth! When I get here, I find that she hath verily kickèd the bucket. And what is more there are Werewolves to contend with, and seemingly Bears to boot. Ah well, the twinning of this village with Lower Churdlecombe-in-the-Wold shall have to wait. I know little of Werewolves, for they are but a legend in my land. But I shall do what I can to aid you in rooting them out.

May I suggest that all come forth and tell what they know of this foul deed. Let no one hold back, for it is only through discussion that we will have any hope of identifying these dreadful beasts. And when the time comes to choose one of our number to face the gallows today, as surely it will, I hope that all will see the sense in discharging their civic duty and casting their vote. For, over time, I imagine that those votes will tell a story in themselves, and only the Wolves have anything to hide in the telling of it. And I trust also that everyone will appreciate the wisdom of spreading our votes out as best we can. For it is only if the Wolves are in danger during the Day's voting that we may force their hands, or should I say paws.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. They cannot be trusted.

While I have some sympathy for this view and will not look kindly upon those who hold back and do not contribute to our discussions, I believe that some restraint is in order here. Quietness alone doth not a Wolf make. We must look for other evidence in that which is said and, more importantly, in the way that the votes are cast.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Oh! The knives are five gold coins a piece.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I'm afraid interest rates are going to have to rise.

Er - perhaps it is a cultural thing, but aren't you being just a tad opportunistic there?

[Kath]

Just poking my head in before I go see to the bees. This werewolf business is a bad one. But I'm not sure that this free for all, make as much money as you can state of things isn't worse! Just as long as they don't take my honey I'm happy.

[tar-ancalime]

But I'm not sure that this free for all, make as much money as you can state of things isn't worse!

Nothing wrong with a good healthy dose of capitalism, eh, comrade?

It could be that one of these speculators will find a real solution--after all, what greater motivators than fear and money? We've got both in abundance.

Actually, now that I think of it, I've only got fear. Alms for the poor?

[mormegil]

A soldier I am and always will be. While I possess great physical prowess and dexterity it's my mind that has won me many a battle. I am able to out think my opponent and that, my friends, will be your greatest asset: A sound mind, reasoned logic, good mannered patience and random accusations.

Gil-Galad too much lupine in him already
Tar -Ancalime was only healed of leprocy because she became a wolf
Celuien a resident amphibian? More like resident lycan.
and Holbytlass as governess seems to govern the wolves more

Take my word for it friends there's two wolves in that pack.

[Farael]

Werewolves you say? ahh the 1,4-difanged-3-tailedfurrybeasts!! maybe we should spread some 2-sworded-1bigmeanhunter and hope for a favourable reaction... oh, but the reaction constant favours the wolves at this point... I guess that we must wait.

Poor Shelob! we were working together trying to find a way to turn gold into rocks... she was such a charmingly insane scientist! I guess I should be sorry for AbercrombieofRohan but who needs a Yeti spotter? Sulfur spotter would be much more useful.

And talking about sulfides, I shall go prepare some more sulfonamides for tar-ancalime... EX-leper he says, but better be safe than sorry.

I will be back later on, fellow villagers.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well I am glad, Master Cook, that you have suggested some strategies that do not simply involve the slaughter of those who are quiet but (quite possibly) innocent. I do, however, have some reservations over one or two things that you say, and will throw my thoughts out, for what they are worth.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

All three, I should say, and more. We should focus on everything that is said and done, for therein might lie clues to guilt. As for the voting record, it is clearly important. But moreso over time and most particularly when we catch a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

I would prefer to trust to the Gifteds' discretion to act as they see fit, based on what they know.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.

While (as I have said), I think that it is a good idea to spread the votes, I would counsel against setting an arbitrary limit. By doing so, we may unwittingly be restricting ourselves only to innocents. Everyone should cast their votes as they think best and if that results in a wide field, then so much the better.

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry my firends, but I must leave for the rest of the Day. I've been called out of town on a sudden emergency. I must vote and I tell you now that it is mostly random.

++Gil-Galad

Devoted lupine enthusiast my rear end! It's more like he's an expert lupine.

Good bye my friends.

*If you want real reason for my abscence, check the original thread. Thanks.

[Gil-Galad]

woah woah woah Glirdy, though i admire the Lupine, i would never want to be one, don't be rash Glirdan, senseless voting will get you know where!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

While (as I have said), I think that it is a good idea to spread the votes, I would counsel against setting an arbitrary limit. By doing so, we may unwittingly be restricting ourselves only to innocents. Everyone should cast their votes as they think best and if that results in a wide field, then so much the better.

Hear hear!

[Boromir88]

Well I'm going to pop in here before I retire to my quarters. Just some observations.

Good discussion so far, though I must say nothing that I already don't know myself.

Saucepan is acting like his usual self, offering advice, counsel, sounding intellegent. So, there's no reason to think him of lycanthropy. Though he could know this and use it to his advantage.

Mormegil comes out with his random accusations as usual.

Glirdan quickly votes as usual. And it always seems to be the most obvious target.

lmp jumps right into things and gives his opinion as usual.

Gil-galad's quick witty remarks as usual.

People telling their woe and condolensces for the dead...umm as usual.

Everything just seems usual...too usual.

This false seer scares me as it could cause a whole mass of confusion for the entire village giving everyone the wrong information and going by our own mind to judge who is the right seer and who is the false seer. Above all people it will be the Seer who I would put my trust in to authorize the lynching of a wolf, but if we don't know who the false seer is, then this could cause some big problems.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Lmp don't use these desperate times to further the thickness of your wallet, a good noose is much better than any of your silver devices.

Easy for you to say, oh thou majestic magisterium, sir; you're on the guvment payroll. Those of us who actually have to work for a living must come up with whatever profitable methods we can for keeping body and soul together.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Mormegil

Holbytlass as governess seems to govern the wolves more.

Well, Master Morm, I will be the first to admit my charges are like a pack of wild animals but if ye are implying those innocent babes are the culprits behind poor Shelob and Abercrombie's deaths then shame on you. But no worries, I suppose a soldier has seen situations that would make my hair curl.
I assure you and all others that my charges were tucked in all night and I was by their side seeing as they have come down with bad headcolds.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

Now not always but it seems suspicious when a person wants to hang someone else that had made an arbitrary or even tacky accusation when everyone else feels that it was in jest. In my experience, sometimes the tattletail had done the worst offense.

Originally Posted by A

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

Of course, in agreement there-lay low, but not too low or Glirdan will hang ye . Oh I suppose the usual is in order:don't be obvious, but be clear and don't get killed!! If it's likely a seer is going to be lynched try to come and post a clear list of whom you've dreamt of.

Originally Posted by A

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.

A bit of spread is good, but how are we to know exactly how many.

[tar-ancalime]

This false seer scares me as it could cause a whole mass of confusion for the entire village giving everyone the wrong information and going by our own mind to judge who is the right seer and who is the false seer.

Well, yes.

It seems to me we've got to play as though we'd already lost the Seer (blind, if you catch me). We can dispense with the usual Seer-related flotsam of the first few days: people looking for hints that aren't there, declaring that they know who the Seer is, silly warnings to keep hidden, and the rest of that nonsense. We've just got to do the best we can and wait for later in the game, when we'll (if we're lucky) get a great gift from the true Seer.

The wolves will be looking for both Seers, but not too hard--if they kill the false Seer too soon, we'll be relieved of our doubts and they'll lose their advantage. I think both Seers have got a bit of breathing space, at least from the wolves.

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

It seems to me we've got to play as though we'd already lost the Seer (blind, if you catch me). We can dispense with the usual Seer-related flotsam of the first few days: people looking for hints that aren't there, declaring that they know who the Seer is, silly warnings to keep hidden, and the rest of that nonsense. We've just got to do the best we can and wait for later in the game, when we'll (if we're lucky) get a great gift from the true Seer.

I agree. I was more or less trying to say this. Thanks for saying it better.

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.

The only problem with this is that seer talk is one more piece of the village talk by which we may be able to snare a werewolf by means of his/her words. So although I sympathize with your desire for clarity, too much of that kind of clarity at this early stage might help the werewolves (to hide out in the open) more than the innocents.

[Aiwendil]

Littlemanpoet wrote:

However, five or six? That may spread things too thin, maybe? I don't know.

But if we only spread them among, say, three or four, then chances are that all those voted for will be innocent. And if all those voted for are innocent, the votes end up telling us nothing. It seems to me that five or six is the optimal number - enough that we're likely to include a wolf and not enough that we allow the wolves a great many 'safe votes'. But I certainly did not mean to suggest that we adopt any such arbitrary number as an absolute standard. I merely suggest that we aim, rather approximately, for the 5 - 6 range.

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer. True, his/her presence may lead to confusion. Certainly it would be better not to have a false Seer. But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager. As long as we all bear the existence of the false Seer in mind, I think we should get along all right. I certainly don't see any call for a moratorium on talking about the Seer; though I would, again, advise the Seers themselves to stay completely hidden. Note also that, at least in my opinion, the chief value of the Seer is to be gotten after the Seer has died (after a long and fruitful life, I hope) - and when either Seer dies his or her true nature will be revealed to us.

[Celuien]

*Celuien enters, dripping water from her soaking froggie feet*

Alas for poor (ribbit) Shelob and Abercrombie. Especially for Shelob, the only mad scientist...erm...doctor who ever tried (ribbit) to understand my peculiar condition. If only she'd lived a little longer, maybe I would have been cured.

Originally Posted by morm

Celuien a resident amphibian? More like resident lycan.

Now, now morm. Don't let's be hasty. While my amphibious tendencies certainly make me a stand-out among the ordinary villagers, I'm far from a lycan. Indeed, why would I put poor Shelob in my own fountain? No, no. It's a frame-up, if you ask me. Ex-lepers like tar-a are far more suspicious. How did they come by a cure, after all? Deals with the lycanthropic side? I wonder. And bankers like Ang, well, everyone knows that bankers are naturally suspicious.

Anyway, gifteds, please stay hidden for the time being.

This little water-dweller is sleepy. Too many hours up snaring flies. But I'll return in a few hours.