Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing… - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Aiwendil · 02-24-2006, 06:10 PM

Fellow villagers, I'm afraid we're not in great shape. With four innocents dead (including the Seer), I think that toDAY may be the DAY that makes or breaks the village. We need to get our act together, discuss things rationally, and, above all, lynch a wolf.

Despite the flak I took from some for offering questions as a way to prompt intelligent discussion on DAY 1, I will lay out the things I think we need to ponder toDAY.

First, was Lhuna's death an unfortunate accident or was it brought on by the wolves? I must admit that I had not been watching Lhuna as carefully as I perhaps should have. For myself, I'll have to go back and review her posts and the arguments against her. Of course, we should watch everyone who voted for Lhuna toDAY.

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

I expect that LMP will come under close scrutiny toDAY. He's certainly one of my top suspects. His behaviour so far has been somewhat slippery. Now, I don't hold it against someone that he changes his mind. It's often the mark of considered, rational thought. But LMP seems to be changing his mind without reason. On DAY 1, he utters not one word against Boromir until the very end of the DAY, when he becomes fervently in favour of lynching him. On DAY 2, he explains that, though he did not tell us, he actually suspected Boromir before Ang did. Early on DAY 2, his suspects are Boromir, Mormegil, and Formendacil (see post 142). Note that at this point Lhuna is "maybe innocent" and I am "probably innocent". In post 208 he pivots, mentioning Lhuna as a suspect. And then suddenly in post 216, his chief suspects are Lhuna, Garin, and me. He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

Again, changing one's opinions is not in itself suspicious. And if LMP offered what seem to me to be rational explanations for these changes of opinion, I would probably not think them much cause for concern. But LMP does not offer much in that department. Rather, he justifies his opinions by saying that he is going with his gut and playing intuitively. Now if that isn't a great excuse for a wolf to ride the ever-changing currents of public opinion, I don't know what is.

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty. If he's a wolf, lynching him toDAY would be a major victory, as he's a cunning fellow. I also need to review my two top suspects from yesterDAY, Formendacil and Garin.

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

littlemanpoet · 02-24-2006, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

Because even though he's most likely innocent, he's doing the werewolves' job for them and gunning hard for an innocent (I have been no help in this regard), thus taking attention away from them.

02-24-2006, 06:10 PM	#1
Aiwendil Late Istar Join Date: Mar 2001 Posts: 2,224	Fellow villagers, I'm afraid we're not in great shape. With four innocents dead (including the Seer), I think that toDAY may be the DAY that makes or breaks the village. We need to get our act together, discuss things rationally, and, above all, lynch a wolf. Despite the flak I took from some for offering questions as a way to prompt intelligent discussion on DAY 1, I will lay out the things I think we need to ponder toDAY. First, was Lhuna's death an unfortunate accident or was it brought on by the wolves? I must admit that I had not been watching Lhuna as carefully as I perhaps should have. For myself, I'll have to go back and review her posts and the arguments against her. Of course, we should watch everyone who voted for Lhuna toDAY. Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed. I expect that LMP will come under close scrutiny toDAY. He's certainly one of my top suspects. His behaviour so far has been somewhat slippery. Now, I don't hold it against someone that he changes his mind. It's often the mark of considered, rational thought. But LMP seems to be changing his mind without reason. On DAY 1, he utters not one word against Boromir until the very end of the DAY, when he becomes fervently in favour of lynching him. On DAY 2, he explains that, though he did not tell us, he actually suspected Boromir before Ang did. Early on DAY 2, his suspects are Boromir, Mormegil, and Formendacil (see post 142). Note that at this point Lhuna is "maybe innocent" and I am "probably innocent". In post 208 he pivots, mentioning Lhuna as a suspect. And then suddenly in post 216, his chief suspects are Lhuna, Garin, and me. He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time. Again, changing one's opinions is not in itself suspicious. And if LMP offered what seem to me to be rational explanations for these changes of opinion, I would probably not think them much cause for concern. But LMP does not offer much in that department. Rather, he justifies his opinions by saying that he is going with his gut and playing intuitively. Now if that isn't a great excuse for a wolf to ride the ever-changing currents of public opinion, I don't know what is. So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty. If he's a wolf, lynching him toDAY would be a major victory, as he's a cunning fellow. I also need to review my two top suspects from yesterDAY, Formendacil and Garin. One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.