Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Aiwendil]

The Play's the Thing . . . going on inside Aiwendil's brain

First synapse: Wow, Spawn's dead. Eomer must be a wolf!
Second synapse: Of course not; that would be way too obvious. It's a frame-up.
Third synapse: But it's too obvious to be a frame-up. And Eomer, knowing that it would look like a frame-up, could very well have done it!
Fourth synapse: But, knowing that everyone would come to that conclusion, the wolves might still have tried to frame him.
Fifth synapse: Yes, but knowing that, Eomer could still be a wolf.
Sixth synapse: Oh, give it up! You were dead wrong about LMP and Garin, so what makes you think you can untangle this mess?

Exeunt omnes

Well, that's the little drama that went on in my head a few minutes ago when I saw that Spawn had been killed. Obviously, we're all familiar with the whole frame-up/double bluff/triple bluff/etc. craziness that's going on here. So what's the point of my little play? Well, it's this. It seems to me that to try to disentangle the psychology of last NIGHT's kill is futile. Either Eomer did it or he's being framed. But beyond that, who can say? Either possibility seems equally plausible to me.

My point is that we shouldn't just stare at Spawn's dead body all day trying to divine who it was that killed her. We need to make a decision about Eomer, but that's not the way to do it. The way to do it is to look at Eomer and decide for ourselves whether he looks like a wolf. For my part, I'll be going back and reading carefully over all Eomer's posts. It's critical that we get this right. If Eomer's a wolf and we lynch him, we'll have scored our first victory. But if he's innocent and we lynch him, we'll be in very dire straits indeed.

I agree that it's important not to let the matter of Eomer prevent us from having any other discussion toDAY. But with both of those whom I chiefly suspected dead and innocent, I'm rather stuck. I need to review the past few DAYs' discussion. In particular, I'm looking at:

Tar-ancalime - I found her somewhat wolvish on DAY 1 but let her off the hook after that, due to my rising suspicion of LMP and Garin. But both of those suspicions were, obviously, way off. I will definitely be looking at Tar again today.

Kath - Could her recent verbosity be a wolf's response to charges that she was too quiet? Something to consider, anyway.

Farael - He went exclusively and ferociously after me until it was pointed out that this looked like a good tactic for a wolf. Then he proposed lynching LMP because, if LMP was guilty, then (by his logic), I probably was too. LMP wasn't guilty, but (surprise, surprise) Farael still wants to lynch me anyway.

Edit: Crossed with Farael

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

What's your information? Please share it.

Like Farael, the information that I hoped to gain was based on the assumption that lmp was a Wolf.

I have been reviewing past events and noticed that I didn't have an opportunity to answer this yesterday, having already left the village square for the evening.

Originally Posted by Kath

What? SPM? You ask me to talk more so I do, and while I don't wish to get overly defensive I put my own opinions in all through that summary.

In answer to SPM and Eomer's worries over my no vote though I would like to ask you a question. Would you rather that I came in at the end of Day 2 and made a snap decision on a vote (something which SMP at least has already said is a bad thing) or that I analysed what I had seen of Lhuna, deemed her innocent and decided not to vote as any that I made would have been random and of no use to anyone the next Day?

Well, as I have said, I was thrown into a lot of doubt yesterday, following the revelation that lmp was innocent. I had already formed the impression that your quietness made you look suspicious. I did see your long analysis of Day 1 before I voted. However, I thought that it came rather late in the day (or three days, I should say). And it seemed to me that you were mainly commenting on the opinions expressed by others rather than putting forward opinions yourself. And doing so on a post by post basis, rather than looking at patterns of behaviour over the three days. That always looks suspicious to me, as a Wolf can avoid saying anything which incriminates him/herself or his/her companions by commenting only on selected statements.

As for whether I would rather you made a snap decision to vote rather than taking your time, well, if the alternative is a no vote, then frankly yes I would. A no vote gives a Wolf a place to hide. I disliked Garin's snap vote because it was at the beginning, rather than the end, of the day. I disliked even more the fact that he was encouraging Formendacil to do the same.

I agree with others that the quiet ones merit consideration. Going into the fourth day, we have very little to go on with regard to Kath, Formendacil, Celuin, Glirdan and Nilp. Yes, you too Nilp. I am beginning to wonder whether I was rash to accept your sign. I hope that I was not.

One further point occurred to me as I reviewed the past days' events. Mormegil seems to have a knack for putting forward suspicions of, and voting for, the most likely candidates for lynching. On Day 1, he voted for Gil, who was certainly a likely candidate that day. On Day 2, he made out a strong case against littlemanpoet, but voted for Lhuna. Both were looking suspicious, and likely to gain votes, at the time (as indeed they did). And on Day 3, he made a strong case against Garin, littlemanpoet and Eomer, and voted for littlemanpoet (who would almost certainly have been lynched, but for his disappearance) and then for Eomer, another likely candidate to be lynched. And now today, he has come out strongly against Eomer. It is understandable, I suppose, that his main suspicions coincide with the most suspicious-looking villagers, but this tendency of his to pick the villager most likely to be lynched does make me rather uneasy.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Well, personally I was hoping LMP would be a wolf (which looked quite likely) and Aiwendil would have been implicated much more strongly.... LMP is not a wolf, but I still think Aiwendil is (stubborn, anyone? =P)

This is why I'm so strongly against lynching one person in order to "gain information" about another person. What Farael is essentially telling us is, "Yesterday I wanted to lynch lmp in order to gain information on Aiwendil. You see, if lmp was a wolf, then so was Aiwendil. If lmp was innocent, then Aiwendil was a wolf."

I've said it before and I'll say it again: vote for the person you suspect. This indirect stuff doesn't work. It decreases the clarity.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

This is why I'm so strongly against lynching one person in order to "gain information" about another person. What Farael is essentially telling us is, "Yesterday I wanted to lynch lmp in order to gain information on Aiwendil. You see, if lmp was a wolf, then so was Aiwendil. If lmp was innocent, then Aiwendil was a wolf."

I've said it before and I'll say it again: vote for the person you suspect. This indirect stuff doesn't work. It decreases the clarity.

I beg to differ tar-ancalime, I never said that I wanted to lynch LMP ONLY to gain information about Aiwendil.... I believe I said it yesterDay, that I was compromising my pursuit of Aiwendil to go after another suspect which in turn would give more information about my main suspect. It all stems from Aiwendil, but if I cant get to him as I tried in the beginning, I will get to him in another way.

[Celuien]

Getting organized here...

Those who are still living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Kath
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

The Pan Man has already kindly given the customary voting , which I've taked the liberty of reproducing here with proven innocents bolded:

1. Garin for Boromir88 (Boromir88-1)
2. Mormegil for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-1)
3. Littlemanpoet for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-2)
4. Eomer of the Rohirrim for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-3)
5. Glirdan for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-4)
6. Tar-ancalime for littlemanpoet (Boromir88-1, littlemanpoet-5)

Littlemanpoet disappears and the votes agaist him are discounted

7. The Saucepan Man for Kath (Boromir88-1, Kath-1)
8. CeluiEn for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1)
9. Mormegil for Eomer (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Eomer (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-2)
11. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-1, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
12. Aiwendil for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-2, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
13. Kath for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-3, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-1)
14. Boromir88 for Aiwendil (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-3, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-2)
15. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Garin (Boromir88-1, Kath-1, Garin-4, Eomer-2, Aiwendil-2)

Did not vote: Farael, Nilpaurion Felagund

Now, it's my humble opinion that wolves aren't likely to lead off or finish a campaign against an innocent as it's a rather conspicuous position to be in after being proven wrong. More likely to hide out in the middle, save to spare their own furry necks. The exception to the decision making rule being in a long bandwagon when a vote for the same innocent everyone else is voting for doesn't stand out quite so much, a 4-2 margin not being any different from a 3-2 margin. By that reasoning, morm, and if I dare say it, your fountain-dwelling frog, look a bit less suspicious, despite our both being all wet with our wolf-detecting judgment (morm for lmp and my vote for Garin). Conversely, Kath and Eomer give very safe votes, with Eomer taking the safe route in both the initial vote for lmp and the subsequent Garin fiasco. So that would bring us down to...

Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Kath
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

...as possibilities for today.

For my part, I find SpM trustworthy. Nor do I particularly suspect Aiwendil, Farael's case against him nonwithstanding. Tar-a seems innocent on the basis of her calls for clarity and her good analysis. Same goes for Boro, who I find myself believing in more and more as time goes by. Hopefully I haven't been fooled.

That leaves me to work with Farael, Glirdan, Formendacil, Nilp, Eomer and Kath.

If Eomer is a wolf, Farael most likely is not on the basis of post 342 (and vice-versa). Glirdy, Form, Nilp and Kath haven't really said enough to sway me in wither direction. Which leaves Eomer. Again.

I don't know what to do. Eomer is looking very bad, but at the same time, spawn's death was such an obvious move to set him up if he is innocent that I'm not completely comfortable with the Wereomer theory. Particularly given my dismal record in the past few days. Time permitting, I'll probably try to vote very late in this DAY, after I've had time to really consider everything, look at what everyone has said, and hopefully have a bit more information.

[Boromir88]

I may have to kind of redirect where I'm going. Before lmp pulled out he had 5 votes (one was his), I'm inclined to think one of those 4 other votes was a wolf (at the least). We all knew lmp would be lynched and after Garin's vote for me there was a big bandwagon gathering full steam against him. In order:

Mormegil
lmp
Eomer
Glirdan
Tar-ancalime

I'm not sure what to make of mormegil. He's consistently gone after the most suspicious and has been strong in attacking his suspects. I am willing to say though that the other 3 who voted for lmp look more wolfish then mormegil. Because after lmp makes his announcement that he wants out I'm sure at least one wolf would jump at the oppurtunity.

Which was why I was opposed to an lmp bandwagon yesterday. Yes, he wanted gone, but by the whole village (most of it) jumping on and voting for him it just lets the wolves hide amongst the entire village. So, I'm thinking that at least one wolf anxiously jumped at lmp's vote.

This goes to point more fingers at Eomer and build his suspicioun. But I think it also points strong fingers at Glirdan and tar, who I don't think showed prior suspicioun of lmp. Tar gave the reasoning of since lmp wanted out of the village she would be more than happy to ablige, because we don't need a villager that doesn't want to be a part of the village. I can understand that reasoning, and the most suspicious of the group looks to be Glirdan. Who backed down from his vote and followed along with Kath's reasoning from the prior day that he was confused.

I'm never a strong advocate for not voting, even if you have to vote more or less randomly. In Kath's instance she was gone all day and her seems more understandable. But I look at Glirdan pulling out his vote, there would still be plenty of time for him to find something, go to his next suspicious person, instead he just pulls out and says he won't vote randomly...this doesn't seem to fit right with me, because to me there was plenty of time left after lmp pulled out to re-evaluate and find another suspect.

So Glirdan jumping onto lmp, when lmp pulls out, Glirdan withdraws his vote, then his no vote goes to look like he doesn't want to get his hands in another mess.

So, Tar-ancalime, that's what I meant be being able to find something in the votes.

My feelings on Aiwendil are purely circumstantial. He has been providing some valuable input, and the "grayness" could be good in that he can access both sides instead of just being tunnel-visioned. But, that also looks suspicious as marked several times.

In no particulare order now:

Glirdan
Aiwendil
Eomer
Tar-ancalime

[mormegil]

I'm a bit frustrated at many of you right now, it seems that we are all saying that 'Eomer is worth watching' but most are not. Even any of you applied a modicum amount of the knowledge we posses of Eomer, then we would know that he could definately pull this off. I'm glad that I am at least willing to put myself on the line and proclaim my belief of his guilt. He seems to be smoother when more pressure is on him.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm going to give my predictions for who the wolves are tomorrow. Right now, I'm going to bed.

Why not now? You obviously have them and why not share? It could be of great benefit in knowing your guilt/innocence and yet you refuse to give our that info. Why? I don't like it.

Formendacil, until I see a post at town hall declaring your illness true and legitamate I will suspect you and may vote for you.

Tar-A I think is likely to be a wolf. She sneaked out of a dangerous situation on Day 1 and has been riding that wave since. I think it's time she got some more heat!

Originally Posted by SpM

One further point occurred to me as I reviewed the past days' events. Mormegil seems to have a knack for putting forward suspicions of, and voting for, the most likely candidates for lynching.

So I vote for those I put forward as suspicious...well I must be a wolf

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Formendacil, until I see a post at town hall declaring your illness true and legitamate I will suspect you and may vote for you.

By all means, suspect me and vote for me- notice or no notice (although you have irked me into posting a notice, something I tend to disdain, being of the opinion that Real Life issues need not intrude on Werewolf). But to base suspicion of me on whether or not I am sick is silly...

Anyway, I am sick, and it's making me quite irritable. All this talk of "hearing more from the quiet ones". I ask you, when has it EVER produced a tangible increase in noise from the "quiet ones"?

Of course, I do appreciate the fact that you're rather feeling a lack of things to go by where "certain" quiet ones are concerned. However, continual harping about "needing to hear more" is something that you'd THINK would have died out after 17+ mainstream games of Werewolf. But no....

Now, things are very grim in this village. Other than our Seer, the Gifteds remain untouched, but the number of Innocents goes in only one direction: down. And the Werewolves have been touched not at all.

Therefore, let me make an announcement I was planning on saving for a little while, until a "Proven Innocent" could be more useful:

I AM THE FOOL.

That is correct, I am the Village Fool. And I defy any Werewolf to contradict me. And trust me, they won't, because so far this village seems to be clueless as to who the Werewolves are. Therefore, challenging my claim is tantamount to saying "I am a Werewolf".

Of course, it could mean that I'll be killed tonight... but so what? I'm not a real Gifted! I don't even have the foggiest idea who the Werewolves might be, and I'm not one of the Village Thinkers to figure it out on my own.

So, if I have nothing to offer fear to the Werewolves or help to the Village, why bother revealing myself?

To knock one name off that "possibly guilty" list.

Thank you, Eaumor, and Good Night.

[mormegil]

Well Formendacil, despite being ill I see that you are also a bit petulant. However I forgive you on the fact that you are ill. Incidentally thank you for 'dragging yourself across town' to let us know. You see the problem I was having though, if you weren't sick you could have been using it as cover to be quiet and therefore give no solid evidence. As it stands I am glad that you came forward when you did. Mounting suspicion against you will only cloud the judgement of our town. Now I believe you that you are innocent and this will benefit the village.

I think I may have a read through of all of tar-a's posts, though I'm beginning to think that perhaps Holby did dream of her and that they were frightened so the Seer kill was not luck.

[Aiwendil]

Well, I've just gone back and re-read most of the discussion (starting all the way back at DAY 1), with particular attention to those who seem the most interesting to me at the moment. For what it's worth, here are my thoughts.

I've been considering Eomer most thoroughly, for obvious reasons. I still don't get much of a sense of wolvishness from his posts. If it weren't for the fact of Dancing Spawn's death, I don't think I'd consider him a prime suspect at this point. Spawn's arguments are mainly concerned with the fact that Eomer has seemed hesitant to accuse people. She does have something of a point here. But this is rather shaky evidence upon which to lynch someone. Moreover, it seems to me that the same charge could be made against several other villagers (Kath, Celuien, Glirdan, and even Spawn herself prior to her attack on Eomer). He is somewhat defensive in response to Spawn's attack. Rather reminds me of LMP. I made the mistake of thinking that his apparent over-reaction to being accused looked wolvish. I don't want to make the same mistake twice.

But the thing that really has me leaning toward Eomer's innocence is actually the same thing that caused Spawn to suspect him. We all know that Eomer would be a bold wolf - so bold that there's a real possibility that he would, indeed, have killed Spawn. But if he's such a bold wolf, why would he more or less "play it safe" in terms of accusations? It strikes me that if Eomer were a wolf, he wouldn't be afraid to take a risk and accuse someone. His "playing it safe" - i.e., perhaps, playing it rationally - looks more like something he'd do if innocent.

Mind you, if he turns out to be a wolf I'm sure a few choice words will run through my mind . . .

As for the other people I've been looking at and/or have caught my eye:

Tar-ancalime - I'm increasingly thinking that my less informed DAY 1 opinion of her (i.e. that she's a wolf) was correct. After coming under some scrutiny early on, she's managed to avoid suspicion for the most part. Yet I still can't put my finger on what's making me so nervous about her.

Kath - The two times that she has actually voted, it's been for Gil and Garin - both fairly "safe". But what really worries me about her is her quietness, followed suddenly by long analyses (when people start to comment on the quietness). Not a top suspect yet, but I'd definitely like to hear more from her.

Farael - He's really starting to look like a wolf to me. Other than attacking me, the one thing he's really done is suggest that we lynch LMP (to get information about me, of course). Now, I also thought we should lynch LMP - but that's because I thought he was a wolf. I'm also not quite sure what "information" he thought he'd get. He decided that if LMP was a wolf, then I'm a wolf, and if LMP wasn't a wolf . . . then I'm a wolf. Farael, how about telling us what you think of the other villagers? Whom else do you suspect? Or am I all three wolves at once?

Formendacil - He still worries me a little bit. I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, but only because there are others who concern me more.

[Farael]

Read above Aiwendil, I'm voicing some suspicions about Eomer. That's two wolves The third is probably one of the smart guys, but he (or she) can wait 'till we rid ourselves of you and Eomer... odd that now you are defending Eomer, don't you think? and on a bit of a crooked premise.

Wolf Eomer would be bold. Yet the Eomer we see in the village is not bold, therefore the wolf aspect of Eomer could not possibly be as bold as it'd be needed to kill Spawn?

Well, Aiwendil I beg to differ!! Isn't it quite convenient for a wolf to do so? appear one way, act another... heck, that's the definition of a werewolf! Appear innocent, be guilty... appear hesitant, act boldly... come on, you can do better than that to defend your fellow wolf, can't you?