Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Boromir88]

I may have to kind of redirect where I'm going. Before lmp pulled out he had 5 votes (one was his), I'm inclined to think one of those 4 other votes was a wolf (at the least). We all knew lmp would be lynched and after Garin's vote for me there was a big bandwagon gathering full steam against him. In order:

Mormegil
lmp
Eomer
Glirdan
Tar-ancalime

I'm not sure what to make of mormegil. He's consistently gone after the most suspicious and has been strong in attacking his suspects. I am willing to say though that the other 3 who voted for lmp look more wolfish then mormegil. Because after lmp makes his announcement that he wants out I'm sure at least one wolf would jump at the oppurtunity.

Which was why I was opposed to an lmp bandwagon yesterday. Yes, he wanted gone, but by the whole village (most of it) jumping on and voting for him it just lets the wolves hide amongst the entire village. So, I'm thinking that at least one wolf anxiously jumped at lmp's vote.

This goes to point more fingers at Eomer and build his suspicioun. But I think it also points strong fingers at Glirdan and tar, who I don't think showed prior suspicioun of lmp. Tar gave the reasoning of since lmp wanted out of the village she would be more than happy to ablige, because we don't need a villager that doesn't want to be a part of the village. I can understand that reasoning, and the most suspicious of the group looks to be Glirdan. Who backed down from his vote and followed along with Kath's reasoning from the prior day that he was confused.

I'm never a strong advocate for not voting, even if you have to vote more or less randomly. In Kath's instance she was gone all day and her seems more understandable. But I look at Glirdan pulling out his vote, there would still be plenty of time for him to find something, go to his next suspicious person, instead he just pulls out and says he won't vote randomly...this doesn't seem to fit right with me, because to me there was plenty of time left after lmp pulled out to re-evaluate and find another suspect.

So Glirdan jumping onto lmp, when lmp pulls out, Glirdan withdraws his vote, then his no vote goes to look like he doesn't want to get his hands in another mess.

So, Tar-ancalime, that's what I meant be being able to find something in the votes.

My feelings on Aiwendil are purely circumstantial. He has been providing some valuable input, and the "grayness" could be good in that he can access both sides instead of just being tunnel-visioned. But, that also looks suspicious as marked several times.

In no particulare order now:

Glirdan
Aiwendil
Eomer
Tar-ancalime

[mormegil]

I'm a bit frustrated at many of you right now, it seems that we are all saying that 'Eomer is worth watching' but most are not. Even any of you applied a modicum amount of the knowledge we posses of Eomer, then we would know that he could definately pull this off. I'm glad that I am at least willing to put myself on the line and proclaim my belief of his guilt. He seems to be smoother when more pressure is on him.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm going to give my predictions for who the wolves are tomorrow. Right now, I'm going to bed.

Why not now? You obviously have them and why not share? It could be of great benefit in knowing your guilt/innocence and yet you refuse to give our that info. Why? I don't like it.

Formendacil, until I see a post at town hall declaring your illness true and legitamate I will suspect you and may vote for you.

Tar-A I think is likely to be a wolf. She sneaked out of a dangerous situation on Day 1 and has been riding that wave since. I think it's time she got some more heat!

Originally Posted by SpM

One further point occurred to me as I reviewed the past days' events. Mormegil seems to have a knack for putting forward suspicions of, and voting for, the most likely candidates for lynching.

So I vote for those I put forward as suspicious...well I must be a wolf

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Formendacil, until I see a post at town hall declaring your illness true and legitamate I will suspect you and may vote for you.

By all means, suspect me and vote for me- notice or no notice (although you have irked me into posting a notice, something I tend to disdain, being of the opinion that Real Life issues need not intrude on Werewolf). But to base suspicion of me on whether or not I am sick is silly...

Anyway, I am sick, and it's making me quite irritable. All this talk of "hearing more from the quiet ones". I ask you, when has it EVER produced a tangible increase in noise from the "quiet ones"?

Of course, I do appreciate the fact that you're rather feeling a lack of things to go by where "certain" quiet ones are concerned. However, continual harping about "needing to hear more" is something that you'd THINK would have died out after 17+ mainstream games of Werewolf. But no....

Now, things are very grim in this village. Other than our Seer, the Gifteds remain untouched, but the number of Innocents goes in only one direction: down. And the Werewolves have been touched not at all.

Therefore, let me make an announcement I was planning on saving for a little while, until a "Proven Innocent" could be more useful:

I AM THE FOOL.

That is correct, I am the Village Fool. And I defy any Werewolf to contradict me. And trust me, they won't, because so far this village seems to be clueless as to who the Werewolves are. Therefore, challenging my claim is tantamount to saying "I am a Werewolf".

Of course, it could mean that I'll be killed tonight... but so what? I'm not a real Gifted! I don't even have the foggiest idea who the Werewolves might be, and I'm not one of the Village Thinkers to figure it out on my own.

So, if I have nothing to offer fear to the Werewolves or help to the Village, why bother revealing myself?

To knock one name off that "possibly guilty" list.

Thank you, Eaumor, and Good Night.

[mormegil]

Well Formendacil, despite being ill I see that you are also a bit petulant. However I forgive you on the fact that you are ill. Incidentally thank you for 'dragging yourself across town' to let us know. You see the problem I was having though, if you weren't sick you could have been using it as cover to be quiet and therefore give no solid evidence. As it stands I am glad that you came forward when you did. Mounting suspicion against you will only cloud the judgement of our town. Now I believe you that you are innocent and this will benefit the village.

I think I may have a read through of all of tar-a's posts, though I'm beginning to think that perhaps Holby did dream of her and that they were frightened so the Seer kill was not luck.

[mormegil]

Post 6

A strange post. One thing that sticks out is here use of the double negative. Is it that I’ve assigned those to Mordor or a slip on her part? Either way I don’t like it.

No noose neither.

Post 10

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Nothing wrong with a good healthy dose of capitalism, eh, comrade?

Another odd thing that caught my attention. It could be a simple jab at socioeconomic systems or she could actually be so bold as to call Kath her comrade and italicize it.


Post 22


The ‘moratorium on seer talk’ post. The problem here is this that I can view this either way. Innocent, she is sincere and is hoping that the seers remain hidden; guilty and she is hoping to catch the seer soon and use this post to help show her innocence in the matter.

Post 35

She comes across as mild mannered and fairly agreeable. I noticed that she tries to identify herself somewhat with Lhuna. Also she states that she will suspect those that don’t agree with her. I find this an odd statement.

Post 36

Missed the last part of what Lhuna said and states really nothing new.

Post 44

This is the post where she takes issue with Dancing Spawn’s synopsis of events so far. She finds it suspicious that she has posted such a long post and said so little. Yet, in my mind, tar-ancalime was doing the exact same thing, except she posted shorter posts but very frequent and they hadn’t really added anything to help out, per se. She also says that she is done with seer talk and puts her little disclaimer in.

I’m not sure if I want to make too much of this statement but I do want to mention it.

We've got to focus on lynching a wolf tonight and creating a useful voting record

It’s the ‘tonight’ bit that bothers me. I live further west than most and it was 6AM so night time wasn’t near and I don’t believe it was across the pond either. It could be innocent yet it could be a slip up and she was thinking about her wolf strategy for the night. I’m inclined to think it means nothing but I did want to mention it.

Post 50

Changes suspicion off Spawn and ‘mostly random’ chooses Eomer to vote for. Says something like if you’re innocent I’d want you on my team, but if your guilty I’d rather be done with you before we get started. In my opinion, if he’s that strong a player and such an asset why randomly vote for him if you don’t have any real suspicion of him? He can be very useful if innocent (which I don’t’ see that he has been very useful yet…hmmm…) but killing Eomer if innocent would be a much graver mistake than killing an innocent Gil. This could be an early wolf on wolf vote as I am not convinced of Eomer’s innocence. Later she also is adamant about only voting for those who you suspect. I realize it's day 1 but be consistent.

Of note Aiwendil votes for her in Post 80. Also very damning is Holby’s vote for her in Post 92. I feel Holby may have dreamt of her and that she included Lhuna, with less substantial reasons (occupation) to help cover her tracks. However the wolves cued in on that and went in for the kill. Also Holby voted for her at a time when there was still a reasonable chance for her to get lynched. I could be wrong but Holby may have dreamt of tar-ancalime.

Post 124

Decides there is no reason to review Gil’s post and finds the Boromir bandwagon suspicious. Disagrees with Garin’s reasons for voting for Boromir. Suspects LMP and Garin due to their vote and is willing to assume that Formen and Anguirel’s votes were okay. Interesting to note that all four whom voted for Boromir on day 1 are innocent and she is going after two of them here.

Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.

I find this interesting also. I just don’t see the need for it and it seems like a nervous wolf stating this.

Post 127

Was confused about the double lynching rule, which I admitted already I was too.

Post 129

Thanks SpM for pointing that out and states that she is still confused about the Boromir bandwagon.

Post 141

She responds to Boromir’s suspicion of her quote that I put just above and quotes Garin as her reason to supply this.


Post 161

Gets a bit uppity about somebody saying that she is flip-flopping on her position.

Her calm response that she had done it largely to gather her own thoughts (she didn't ignore me, nor did she get defensive), added to the fact that no one else seemed to have a problem with her post, led me to relax my stance.

I could, again, be twisting this but it seems to me that she is saying ‘well nobody was biting on my bait to get Spawn lynched so I let it be’. Wolfish in my mind.

Post 172

Says that she’s not suspicious of any of the day’s leader on the suspicion chart except Garin and proceeds to vote for him.

Of note Anguirel speaks against tar-ancalime in Post 173 and distrusts all post like her 172. Anguirel dies that night. Holby doesn’t’ agree with her and ends up dead. Anguirel doesn’t agree with her and he ends up dead which brings us back to her earlier quote that essentially she doesn’t like people ever disagreeing with her.


Post 234

This is her first post of the day and she quickly points out that she doesn’t believe it points to anybody, whereas I believe I’ve just shown that it could. This alone raises my suspicion of her immensely.

Post 237

Agrees with Kath that Formendacil’s vote shouldn’t be rushed as was suggested by Garin.

Post 244

Farael's accusations are either based on a refusal to understand Aiwendil's sometimes subtle reasoning and willingness to consider several viewpoints and shades of gray (which style, as I have found to my own detriment, can be taken as a refusal to commit to one line of thinking), or they are totally unfounded

So she is saying that she refuses to commit to only one line of thinking and yet Anguirel pointed out that she did do that in relation to Garin and this is why he didn’t trust her. She refused to consider the others and said that there is only one or two possibilities.

She also says that the Eomer—Spawn feud is a bit ‘contrived’ and she pushes more of the blame for this on Spawn. Now we know Spawn is innocent so it would be reasonable for tar-a to cast some suspicion onto Eomer and yet give the greater portion to Spawn.

Accuses me of flying under the radar.

States her suspects and says that Garin and LMP are the highest.

Post 247

Doesn’t fully agree with Farael that killing LMP might be a good idea but we really should look at those who aren’t contributing and would provide some useful information upon their death.

Post 258

Finds it disconcerting that Boromir and LMP suddenly don’t suspect each other. As LMP is innocent and I find no real suspicion in Boromir I don’t find their sudden change disconcerting at all. I do find it disconcerting that you seem to be testing the water for any takers to your bait again.

Post 261

Comments on Nilp’s sign.

Post 285

Votes for LMP as he doesn’t want to be here anyway so we might as well get rid of him.

Post 289

Forgoes changing her vote because she doesn’t want to make it uninformed citing Kath’s previous example. It’s interesting though that she had some strong thoughts on Garin and yet didn’t vote for him when she could have.

Post 340

She says we got too bogged down in LMP talk yesterday and suggests that all wolves might be quiet ones. Takes notice of my observation that Formendacil hadn’t officially noted his illness and therefore it could be a ploy.

Post 341

Says that many stated that LMP’s death would give information and she requested what information we gleaned from his death.

Post 346

Complains about killing LMP for information and that we should vote for those whom we really suspect and yet she didn’t vote for Garin when she had the chance yesterday.


END OF POSTS

So where does this leave me? I am still very suspicious of tar-ancalime and feel that she may be a wolf but I am not fully convinced at least not enough to vote for her yet. However, Eomer and she are most likely to receive my vote and unless light is shed upon somebody else don’t’ be surprised to see a vote their way.

Upon rereading my analysis I came to the realization of just how non-commital and safe she has been. She almost refuses to come out and openly accuse anybody and is usually taking the safe path. I find these two ponits very critical in my opinion and therefore I believe my vote most likely will go to tar-ancalime.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Thank you for not counting me out of this. I was thinking of telling spawn to tell Shelob to pull me out because of certain problems in this country.

Good thing I didn't. I managed to make it in.

Enedwaith, I'll be reviewing toDAY, and I'll be posting some thoughts later. I promised to make up for my disappearance DAY 3, and I will.

Good day.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I don't see a reason why the wolves would feel like they need to bluff here, they have control, we are clueless, why bluff when they've been so successful leading us around getting no where? (Boro)

I'm a bit frustrated at many of you right now, it seems that we are all saying that 'Eomer is worth watching' but most are not. Even any of you applied a modicum amount of the knowledge we posses of Eomer, then we would know that he could definately pull this off. I'm glad that I am at least willing to put myself on the line and proclaim my belief of his guilt. He seems to be smoother when more pressure is on him. (morm)

Okay, here's what I think. If Eomer's a Werewolf, Boro's 'defence' of him will make him look fanged. If Eomer isn't, morm's persistence in running the case against him makes him look fanged.

The problem is, to determine Eomer's guilt or innocence, we have to lynch him. I'm more inclined to agree with Boro here. The Werewolves are controlling the village. They feed us a bit of bait, and we follow around like a school of tuna. This trend has to be stopped.

But I think Eomer's quite suspicious. And, perhaps a wolf-Boro is using his theory to lead us away from their fellow, thus reinforcing their belief that Eaumor is indeed theirs.

Ah, that was but a ramble. More thoughts later.

[tar-ancalime]

It’s the ‘tonight’ bit that bothers me. I live further west than most and it was 6AM so night time wasn’t near and I don’t believe it was across the pond either.

morm, like Formendacil I hate to clutter this thread with non-game information, but I live in Bangkok.

You seem to have latched on to every joke I've made--my in-character grammatical error made for the sake of alliteration ("no noose neither"). My use of "comrade" was a total joke, based on Kath's complaining about people making money off a tragedy. And my statement about suspecting people who disagree with me was completely tongue-in-cheek. I guess I'll be a little more careful about using humor from now on.

Holby did not dream of me. This has been suggested before. If she had dreamed of me she would not have voted for me. I'll say it again. Holby did not dream of me.

I did make a mistake not voting for Garin yesterday. However, imagine if I had: that would look wolvish to you as well, wouldn't it?

I disagree that I've been playing "safe." I have made several suggestions; no one has agreed with me, and so I've been accused of backing off. I'm not backing off any of them; however, I"m not pursuing anything with the singleminded zeal of Farael (for instance), so I can see how my method of throwing out ideas could be perceived as a little fickle. Rest assured, though, that I haven't posted a single thing I didn't believe.

[Aiwendil]

Well, I've just gone back and re-read most of the discussion (starting all the way back at DAY 1), with particular attention to those who seem the most interesting to me at the moment. For what it's worth, here are my thoughts.

I've been considering Eomer most thoroughly, for obvious reasons. I still don't get much of a sense of wolvishness from his posts. If it weren't for the fact of Dancing Spawn's death, I don't think I'd consider him a prime suspect at this point. Spawn's arguments are mainly concerned with the fact that Eomer has seemed hesitant to accuse people. She does have something of a point here. But this is rather shaky evidence upon which to lynch someone. Moreover, it seems to me that the same charge could be made against several other villagers (Kath, Celuien, Glirdan, and even Spawn herself prior to her attack on Eomer). He is somewhat defensive in response to Spawn's attack. Rather reminds me of LMP. I made the mistake of thinking that his apparent over-reaction to being accused looked wolvish. I don't want to make the same mistake twice.

But the thing that really has me leaning toward Eomer's innocence is actually the same thing that caused Spawn to suspect him. We all know that Eomer would be a bold wolf - so bold that there's a real possibility that he would, indeed, have killed Spawn. But if he's such a bold wolf, why would he more or less "play it safe" in terms of accusations? It strikes me that if Eomer were a wolf, he wouldn't be afraid to take a risk and accuse someone. His "playing it safe" - i.e., perhaps, playing it rationally - looks more like something he'd do if innocent.

Mind you, if he turns out to be a wolf I'm sure a few choice words will run through my mind . . .

As for the other people I've been looking at and/or have caught my eye:

Tar-ancalime - I'm increasingly thinking that my less informed DAY 1 opinion of her (i.e. that she's a wolf) was correct. After coming under some scrutiny early on, she's managed to avoid suspicion for the most part. Yet I still can't put my finger on what's making me so nervous about her.

Kath - The two times that she has actually voted, it's been for Gil and Garin - both fairly "safe". But what really worries me about her is her quietness, followed suddenly by long analyses (when people start to comment on the quietness). Not a top suspect yet, but I'd definitely like to hear more from her.

Farael - He's really starting to look like a wolf to me. Other than attacking me, the one thing he's really done is suggest that we lynch LMP (to get information about me, of course). Now, I also thought we should lynch LMP - but that's because I thought he was a wolf. I'm also not quite sure what "information" he thought he'd get. He decided that if LMP was a wolf, then I'm a wolf, and if LMP wasn't a wolf . . . then I'm a wolf. Farael, how about telling us what you think of the other villagers? Whom else do you suspect? Or am I all three wolves at once?

Formendacil - He still worries me a little bit. I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, but only because there are others who concern me more.

[Farael]

Read above Aiwendil, I'm voicing some suspicions about Eomer. That's two wolves The third is probably one of the smart guys, but he (or she) can wait 'till we rid ourselves of you and Eomer... odd that now you are defending Eomer, don't you think? and on a bit of a crooked premise.

Wolf Eomer would be bold. Yet the Eomer we see in the village is not bold, therefore the wolf aspect of Eomer could not possibly be as bold as it'd be needed to kill Spawn?

Well, Aiwendil I beg to differ!! Isn't it quite convenient for a wolf to do so? appear one way, act another... heck, that's the definition of a werewolf! Appear innocent, be guilty... appear hesitant, act boldly... come on, you can do better than that to defend your fellow wolf, can't you?