Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Yes, that was the point. Perhaps you'd like it better if I put it this way:

Top suspects
Farael
Glirdan

Don't know
SpM
Nilp
Celuien

Innocent
Formendacil

What's the point of putting it that way? We are all aware that our only known innocent is Formen.... but most of us will give SPM and Nilp a break given their votes for Eomer. It's weak but we need to start crossing names off the list and their votes for SPM is a moderately good reason to do so. You seem to add names back into the list, what for?

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

What's the point of putting it that way? We are all aware that our only known innocent is Formen.... but most of us will give SPM and Nilp a break given their votes for Eomer. It's weak but we need to start crossing names off the list and their votes for SPM is a moderately good reason to do so. You seem to add names back into the list, what for?

I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? You've again confused me. All I've been trying to say is that I think it probable that both you and Glirdan are wolves but possible that only one of you is, and that the other is one of the other three.

I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

For once, I actually agree with Farael. Mormegil seemed to have been hesitant to vote for Farael because of the ratio of the votes earlier. But with Kath's vote for Tar, he went ahead.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? You've again confused me. All I've been trying to say is that I think it probable that both you and Glirdan are wolves but possible that only one of you is, and that the other is one of the other three.

Sorry, I missed this.... what I was saying is that you were arguing the obvious, which may or may not be an attempt at seeming useful while still not risking a thing. I would greatly appreciate it if you took at least ONE risk... even if it is going after my neck.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The more I hear from Aiwendil the more I find myself trusting him. (morm @431)

My opinion of Aiwendil is that he's more innocent today than yesterday and I appreciate SpM's analysis of him however I cannot shake the problematic defense of Eomer and the 'saving votes' I noted earlier. (morm @452)

Knowing morm he wouldn't go after a potentially useful villager on basis of such equivocal evidence. He'd rather go after the two non-voters, perhaps until Kath's strange vote made him change his mind.

Which means Aiwendil was most likely safe from the Hunter. Perhaps (if our assumptions are correct that either Glirdan or Farael is a Werewolf) a wolf-Aiwendil's buddy was in danger of being hunted, but he was safe.

Why this sudden attack on him?

I don't know. It slipped my mind the previous DAY, but Boro's death was an absolute suprise for me. They took the chance to get a true Gifted instead of going for the easy kill. Perhaps they feared that with the tandem still alive, they could declare themselves the next DAY and take the initiative from the Werewolves.

There's some very deep tactical thinking going on inside at least one of our remaining fiends. Unless I'm seriously wrong about Sauce, it points to Aiwendil.

[Formendacil]

After a good eight-hour shift of work, five runny noses, a Tropical Hawaiian pizza, and a chance to browse the thread...

...I am even more convinced that Aiwendil is probably a Werewolf. If not, we are doomed, of course, blah, blah, blah, blah. I, I think, am probably doomed tonight no matter what (although the Werewolves could leave this clueless villager standing and go after SPM or something).

Anyway, why do I think Aiwendil a Werewolf?

Reason the First: He's still alive.

Normally, this is what SPM or Morm would come in for about this point in the game, assuming that one of them was alive, but I think it's merited for Aiwendil as well. He is not, by and large, a player who tends to last far into the game. He's the sort that the Werewolves kill early: because he's cautious and thus leads little trail back to them, but because he's also smart and potentially dangerous.

The fact that Aiwendil is still alive worries me.

But a lot more worrisome to me is Aiwendil's strong interest today in staying alive. Now, none of us want to die, but most accepted Innocents tend to take it in stride as a natural course of events, eventually. A Werewolf, however, because the power of Life and Death is concentrated in his hands, doesn't tend to sacrifice himself or to be willing to die- even if it's really bad for the village.

Quite frankly, Aiwendil has seemed more anxious to hold onto his life than normal- normal for himself or normal for an Innocent. In my opinion, this is rather indicting.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm seriously considering voting for Aiwendil, unless something interesting happens in the next few minutes . . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I expect more from you than this shrill defence of yourself.

We need thoughts. Views about the remaining villagers not stemming from anger over the accusations hurled against you.

Got it?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Farael

I think he was just trying to keep the options open, as a vote for tar would have actually made sure she got lynched. I think I was just morm's second option and that Kath's vote settled it with regards that he would not vote for tar to close the voting just yet.

You appear to be trying to argue your way up in my suspicions, Farael, which is ... interesting.

I had viewed morm's vote in the same way that you have put it, but Celuien's interpretation put a slightly different slant on it. Kath's vote might well have been seen by morm as an attempt to save you, particularly as it looked likely that Glirdan was unlikely to turn up to vote.

Once again, I must depart for the night in some confusion over Farael. I will be back tomorrow.

[Farael]

My mistake Celuien, but it was out of need to haste than wolfishness... although now that you mention it, exactly how would that comment make me look wolfish? I'm looking forward to hear from you, because now I just feel you are trying to incriminate me.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Farael

My mistake Celuien, but it was out of need to haste than wolfishness... although now that you mention it, exactly how would that comment make me look wolfish? I'm looking forward to hear from you, because now I just feel you are trying to incriminate me.

How? Because if I truly had been the first to bring up the idea that Eomer was gifted, the exchange between us would have most likely been a prearranged ploy. Ignoring the fact that Eomer was the one hinting of giftedness and then using our conversation as a method to deflect suspicion on to me instead of you would be an entirely legitimate thing for a cornered wolf to attempt. Plus, a delibrate misinterpretation of Eomer's past comments is a distraction that takes time away from the current issue of you vs Aiwendil and sends us (well, me at least) back to replying to your error. Another confusion inducing, possible lupine strategy. And that's why I said what I did.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.

No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.

Originally Posted by Celuien

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.

Perhaps you misstated the position to draw our attention away from Glirdan. Although that would seem unlikely, so I tend to think it was probably an innocent mistake.

I think you are right though that our choice today is probably between either lynching Farael or Aiwendil (because if one is a Wolf, the other is probably not) or lynching Glirdan.

With regard to Farael and Aiwendil, I am rather undecided at the moment. To my mind, Farael’s behaviour throughout has been the more Wolfish. However, his self-vote yesterday still concerns me as it was a very bold move for a Wolf. Also, he said (at #475) that mormegil would have suspected him less than Kath going into last night which, if he is right, suggests that it would have been less risky for a Wolfish Farael to kill mormegil than I had thought. But why would a Wolf point that out about himself? And, while Aiwendil has come across to me as analytical and helpful throughout, I can see how a Wolfish Aiwendil may well have used this approach to try to prod the village in the wrong direction and protect his Wolfish pals. His voting record, when Eomer was under consideration, certainly does not look good.

Of the two, I am beginning to think that Aiwendil might actually be the better choice. Only problem is that, if he is innocent, he is the more useful to have around. Sorry if that sounds harsh, Farael, but you have been causing a lot of confusion, which I don’t regard as having been particularly helpful.

Glirdan, as people have said, is almost impossible to get any kind of a handle on because of his lack of contribution over the last few Days. And, while I accept that he has reasons for that, I can see how it could nevertheless work to the advantage of a Wolf. It has kept him out of serious consideration since the first Day.

One point does occur to me with regard to Glirdan. Do we know at all whether (assuming he is not lynched today) he is likely to be around tomorrow? Because, if we do make a mistake today, we need all of the innocents voting tomorrow. If he is not likely to be here, then he will not be much help to us, even if he is innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Looking back at the village noticeboard, I see that Glirdan has said that he will be back tomorrow:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Well, as you've probably noticed by my deathly scilence, I was away all day and did not get a chance to post. Once again, I will not be able to post until this weekend because I will be busy all day Wednsday-Friday. I may ba able to post tomorrow. Sorry!!

Can he be relied upon? We should be able to trust what is said on the noticeboard, so I do accept this at face value. But if he is innocent, and we do not lynch him today, we really need him to turn up tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, thinking it through, if Glirdan is a Wolf and does not turn up, then that will be one Wolf vote less, so his attendance is not quite as necessary as I had thought.

On that basis, I am likely to vote for either Farael or Aiwendil today, and I am seriously leaning towards Aiwendil at the moment. Unless Farael is being very devious, that reference to himself being lower in morm's suspicions than Kath looks very much like the sort of thing a hapless innocent might say.

I am, however, rather hoping to hear a bit more from others before I have to vote.

[Aiwendil]

Formendacil wrote:

Quite frankly, Aiwendil has seemed more anxious to hold onto his life than normal- normal for himself or normal for an Innocent. In my opinion, this is rather indicting.

That's because lynching an innocent at this point would be fairly disastrous. As for why I'm still alive - apparently the wolves have been busy killing our Gifteds lately. Moreover, I'm (obviously) now under quite a bit of suspicion.

I become more and more convinced that Farael is a wolf. Glirdan still concerns me, but I see less concrete evidence there. So I will probably vote for Farael, unless something changes.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.

Okay. My mistake. *pulls out kindergarten learn to count book*

Honestly, I'm somewhat uneasy about voting Aiwendil today since Farael does look far more suspicious to me. If Farael is a wolf, he has been playing a fairly bold game all along, and the Kath ranking comment would be consistent with his strategy as a wolf.

I see your point about Aiwendil, however, being in a very, very good position to cover any wolvish tracks. And if I force myself to put aside my being taken in my Eomer, he doesn't look good in light of his voting record there. Aiwendil's consistent caution would be what I would expect of a wolf, somewhat more than Farael's boldness. At the same time, Eomer was a very bold wolf, and I suppose they could both have been playing a bold game, thinking that we wouldn't suspect a double team of bold wolves.

So thinking about it, I suppose Farael and Aiwendil objectively look about equally wolvish to me. Subjectively, I'm leaning toward Farael.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Honestly, I'm somewhat uneasy about voting Aiwendil today since Farael does look far more suspicious to me.

I am somewhat uneasy about voting for either of them as, while I am sure that one of them is a Wolf, I am in a quandry as to which one.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Farael is a wolf, he has been playing a fairly bold game all along, and the Kath ranking comment would be consistent with his strategy as a wolf.

True, but it really doesn't come across that way to me at all. I read it more as naive than duplicitous.

In these types of situations (rightly or wrongly), I tend to fall back on the voting record.

Aiwendil has voted for known innocents on every Day, with the exception of yesterday when he voted for Farael. Farael has either voted for Aiwendil or not voted every Day, with the exception of yesterday when he voted for himself. In some ways, Farael's voting pattern is the less bold, because he has never been caught voting for a known innocent.

On Day 3, Aiwendil voted for Garin to put him level on two votes with Eomer. Garin was lynched and found to be innocent. Eomer, as we know, was a Wolf.

On Day 4, Aiwendil voted for tar-ancalime to put her level with Eomer on three votes. Eomer was lynched and found to be a Wolf. Tar-ancalime, as we know was innocent.

Farael did not vote on either Day. I would have expected a Wolf to vote when his fellow Wolf was in danger, unless he thought he was beyond saving. Clearly, that was not the case on Day 3 as Eomer survived. On Day 4, Farael strongly indicated that he was likely to vote for Eomer, but did not turn up to vote.

Both of their voting patterns look suspicious. But Aiwendil's the more so, I think.