Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.

No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.

Originally Posted by Celuien

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.

Perhaps you misstated the position to draw our attention away from Glirdan. Although that would seem unlikely, so I tend to think it was probably an innocent mistake.

I think you are right though that our choice today is probably between either lynching Farael or Aiwendil (because if one is a Wolf, the other is probably not) or lynching Glirdan.

With regard to Farael and Aiwendil, I am rather undecided at the moment. To my mind, Farael’s behaviour throughout has been the more Wolfish. However, his self-vote yesterday still concerns me as it was a very bold move for a Wolf. Also, he said (at #475) that mormegil would have suspected him less than Kath going into last night which, if he is right, suggests that it would have been less risky for a Wolfish Farael to kill mormegil than I had thought. But why would a Wolf point that out about himself? And, while Aiwendil has come across to me as analytical and helpful throughout, I can see how a Wolfish Aiwendil may well have used this approach to try to prod the village in the wrong direction and protect his Wolfish pals. His voting record, when Eomer was under consideration, certainly does not look good.

Of the two, I am beginning to think that Aiwendil might actually be the better choice. Only problem is that, if he is innocent, he is the more useful to have around. Sorry if that sounds harsh, Farael, but you have been causing a lot of confusion, which I don’t regard as having been particularly helpful.

Glirdan, as people have said, is almost impossible to get any kind of a handle on because of his lack of contribution over the last few Days. And, while I accept that he has reasons for that, I can see how it could nevertheless work to the advantage of a Wolf. It has kept him out of serious consideration since the first Day.

One point does occur to me with regard to Glirdan. Do we know at all whether (assuming he is not lynched today) he is likely to be around tomorrow? Because, if we do make a mistake today, we need all of the innocents voting tomorrow. If he is not likely to be here, then he will not be much help to us, even if he is innocent.