WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Thinlómien]

Now this is no good for the village. Two innocents and the seer dead.

I really hope Nogrod's not a wolf. Because I saved him last Day. I've been agonizing over this (whether he's a wolf or not) the whole RL day. I guess my fate is entwined with his; if he's a wolf and he is lynched, I will be surely lynched the next day for saving a wolf.
I am really sorry Valier. (I hope your ghost can hear me...)

What do you guys/gals think about the red marks? I found them pretty strange, I can see no logic unless... Could it be that they are the five ordos? Or the gifteds and the wolves? Or are they just random confusion-creators?

An Ang... I don't know what are you trying to say with that. In what post did Holby say she wants to throw an anvil on you?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What do you guys/gals think about the red marks? I found them pretty strange, I can see no logic unless... Could it be that they are the five ordos? Or the gifteds and the wolves? Or are they just random confusion-creators?

Both first ones would sound in some sense too obvious, but then again, there would in that case still be nastily a choice to make... So it might be. The nastiness resides of course in the fact, that all of us know, which one of them is the right one, but the wolves will deny it... and then we kill the wolves, because they are the only ones to deny the facts... hmmm.... this requires some thinking. It has to be something different, I suppose.

Holby's archives surely demand our attention now, and I think it would be useful for more than one of us to see them through. Four eyes can see more than two, and six even more.

I'll be in RL for some hours, but will be back in couple of hours time...

EDIT: X-posted with Roa

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The nastiness resides of course in the fact, that all of us know, which one of them is the right one, but the wolves will deny it... and then we kill the wolves, because they are the only ones to deny the facts... hmmm....

I guess it would go to that both the gifteds and the wolves would be claiming "I'm the ranger"-kind of things and it would be a nasty war over the other group's trust.

But probably no need to speculate, since I do believe Roa made up the correct answer, if the facts are correct. I don't have time to check, I hope someone else checks it, if Roa hasn't done that already.

Me leaves now. I will be back toDay, but no idea when. Probably many hours before the voting time.

EDIT: cross-posted with Roa_Aoife

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

One last point before I rush off-this implicates Encaitare as well as me. She was in the village where I was a blacksmith and might have been able to decode the hint.

I didn't catch that, actually. I thought it was just her joking around. I don't think that fact would condemn you, though, as a wolf-Anguirel would have not acknowledged it, hoping it would go unnoticed.

Holby didn't post much, but here is a summary of all her posts:

DAY 1

16 – Checks in.
24 – Writes that the most vocal get the highest suspicion and are lynched
25 – Joking reply to something Anguirel said about poetry.
51 – Says that Valier, Jenny, and Naria are particularly concerned about looking at quiet villagers. Votes for Naria.

DAY 2

110 – Mourns LMP, thinks at least one wolf voted for Ka. Says she ought to whack Anguirel with an anvil.
173 – Lists in detail who voted for whom. Does not suspect Anguirel, Nogrod, and Roa (is pretty certain they're innocent). Valesse, Gil-Galad, and Witch_Queen are also not suspected at this time. Mildly suspects Eonwe, Valier, and Encaitare all due to voting placement. Top suspects are Naria (due to previous suspicion and “safe bandwagon vote”) and Thinlomien (because of voting position and the possibility that Ka voted for her to separate them).
185 – Votes for Thinlomien, and agrees that Witch_Queen should be taken out for not participating.

Jenny is the only person who is not mentioned, which is odd. Perhaps Holby just forgot about her?

So her suspicion can be said to be in this order:
1. Thinlomien
2. Naria
3. Eonwe, Valier, Encaitare
4. Valesse, Gil-Galad, Witch_Queen
5. Anguirel, Nogrod, Roa_Aoife

Now, she only got two dreams, I believe. Did she hit the mark with Thinlomien or Naria? Or maybe she dreamed of someone towards the bottom of the list and was therefore assured of their innocence. It's possible, even likely, that she dreamed of Anguirel and found out that he was innocent, and therefore felt safe dropping the anvil hint. Also, she wrote that she thought at least one wolf voted for Ka; the only person she highly suspects who voted for Ka is Thinlomien. Perhaps she dreamed that Lommy was a wolf?

(On a side note, one gains a red mark after voting for an innocent whom the villagers have killed.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, she wrote that she thought at least one wolf voted for Ka; the only person she highly suspects who voted for Ka is Thinlomien. Perhaps she dreamed that Lommy was a wolf?

I don't think so Enca. In the game of WW, one can only be certain of someone else's innocense if one is a wolf or a seer who dreams about them. I think either Ang or Nogrod is the other seer, and they dreamed about me and whichever one isn't the seer. I don't think she would have posted that she didn't find us suspicious otherwise.

[Encaitare]

I apologize, Roa, for I believe I just phrased something poorly.

This is from Holby's post #173:

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Don't find suspicious at this moment: Anguriel,Nogrod (despite the heated posts) and Roa_Aoife.

Valesse I'm leaning towards less suspicious 'cause at the time of her vote there were plenty of others to vote for if she were a wolf. Gil-Galad and WitchQueen I put in this group for now because I don't see wolves being this downright unvocal and bringing undo suspicion on themselves.

Whereas I wrote in summary:

Originally Posted by me

Does not suspect Anguirel, Nogrod, and Roa (is pretty certain they're innocent). Valesse, Gil-Galad, and Witch_Queen are also not suspected at this time.

Nowhere did she say she was "certain" of anyone's innocence, but I used that phrase to differentiate between not finding someone suspicious, as with the first group, and finding someone "less suspicious," as with the second group. My bad. It is likely that the other Seer is in the first group, though.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nowhere did she say she was "certain" of anyone's innocence, but I used that phrase to differentiate between not finding someone suspicious, as with the first group, and finding someone "less suspicious," as with the second group. My bad. It is likely that the other Seer is in the first group, though.

Thank you for clarifying. I'm still not so sure I agree with you though. Since Holby was the seer, she knew that list would be looked at in event of her death. I think she left the list of "not found suspicious" on purpose, to let us know what she knew.

[Anguirel]

Roa, whether intentionally or not, you're being injudicious in constantly bringing up the other Seer as part of Holby's list of innocents. You are possibly narrowing down the wolvish to kill list.

However, Holby is a shrewd and secretive player and would not necessarily have risked her fellow Seer's life by listing them as innocent. I say we leave aside the whole Seer question. That's not your business, if you're innocent.

And I wouldn't mind surviving to the end for once, so I'd rather the wolves weren't (mistakenly or not) drawn to me by your bumbling identifications like moths to a flame.

I still suspect Enca and will probably vote for her in the morning. We have too much of a past in common.

The red marks are clearly bestowed on those who lynch innocents. That's the best innovation Sleepy's come up with yet, methinks. I wonder whether it will make us more or less lynch-happy, or not change much.

[Eonwe]

I also suspect Enca, because of her voting for THE Ka. Still. And if you already suspect her, the analysis of Holby is further fuel for the fire: it is easy to believe that she is twisting Holby's evidence in her wolfish favor.

As for me, I'm sorry I didn't vote yesterDay. Got caught up in RL activities, and it slipped my mind. But rest assured, I would have voted Enca.