WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Thinlómien]

Analysis on Enca
Day 1
#12 - moans Sleepy's death
#20 - says that little pressure is good for the quiet ones, but says people shouldn't be suspected solely of how much they talk
#45 - checks in, suspects she'll vote randomly
#92 - gets heated about Thinlomien's comments on her posting, asks Thinlomien what does she mean by "sound", makes a voting summary, agrees with LMP about THE Ka's self-defence and votes for THE Ka

Day 2
#120 - analyses Ka-bandwagon and says it is probable that there's one wolf, but can't say who
#145 - says we shouldn't concentrate on little things, jokes about Nogrod
#146 - agrees with Ang about the strangeness of Nogrod-bandwagon, slightly suspects Naria, defends loud people and thinks that Roa's argument about them is very suspicious, but still believes Roa innocent (early Ka-vote), thinks she will vote for WQ, defends her vote for Ka, suspects Thinlomien, Naria, Roa and Holby on Sleepy's posts, asks WQ, Gil and Valesse to speak up
#178 - has checked WQ's profile, says Gil's vote for Jenny is odd, suspects Valesse (self-defense-orientated), Gil (hasty and unexplained vote) and Valier (nonsense posts). Votes for Valier (she just echoes others), says she'll pay special attention to Gil and WQ the next day.

Day 3
#214 - says that doesn't understand Ang, makes a Holby-summary, suspects that Holby dreamed of a wolf-Thinlomien
#216 - clears her summary
#227 - would like to hear why Ang and Eonwe suspect her, says she'll probably vote for Thinlomien because Holby voted her also

That's it this far. I wouldn't find her particularly suspecting, though she's a bit too eager to analyse and make us look through lenses set by her and be helpful, if I didn't consider Holby's remarks about THE Ka-bandwagon and Ang's very convincing post and vote. Enca has been quite brief. I would like to hear more about her, though she's not one of the quitests.

innocents for sure: Thinlómien (I happened to read the PM telling me my role)
most probably innocents: Roa (put Ka into spotlight, has been meaningful)
probably innocents: Ang (if Ang was a wolf, Holby would have died earlier, besides, I don't think that wolf-Ang would have killed LMP just because he might be a tough opponent - I'm under the impression that Ang likes challenges), Jenny (I didn't find anything wolfish in her while doing my analysis), Gil-Galad (a wolf wouldn't surely be so careless)
can't say: Nogrod (has been over-aggressive, but remembering the last game, it's his playing style), Eonwe (voted quite stupidly and wolfishly in Day 1, but has been generally behaving quite well and unwolfishly - I think he's the next one who should be analysed)
my suspects: Enca, Naria (nonsense posting and being jumpy), Valesse (too little posting, is hiding too well)

[Thinlómien]

I will leave now and will be back before the voting time.

Please everyone considering voting for me during my absence: read my posts through and think again.

[Nogrod]

This is getting really interesting!

I only have a moment now, but will be back with "full effort" about two hours before the voting.

I was just wondering about the wolves killing tactics. LMP was, in the end, a clear choice: he's a smart player and thence a threat, and his getting the right one first, with kind of a single shot, is kind of seerlike. To add on that, it would look nicely like wolves showing, what happens to those who threat them. So they were running after a seer.

And the next day, they got one. Now was that just pure luck, or had they suspicions about Holby's being the seer? "The Holby archives" once again...

Why to ponder over these matters? I'd like to raise the question Thinlómien did earlier: are we facing very cunning wolves or "stupid" ones? That background thought will surely affect our judgements.

With the cunning line, I could be persuaded to back Ang's suspicion over Enca, with the less cunning line I could side the suspicions over Gil f.ex.

PS.

= NARIA: I don't want to actually come out and say what I am, but I will if need be.

This threat to reveal her identity seems quite dubious to me... as we seem to have better candidates for the seer's post around.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Thin

Eonwe (voted quite stupidly and wolfishly in Day 1, but has been generally behaving quite well and unwolfishly - I think he's the next one who should be analysed)

I actually thought of doing this last night (RL), since Eonwe seems to be slipping under the radar quite effectively.

Eonwe analysis
Day 1
1st post - nonsense
2nd - Says there is no real formula in WW, suggests waiting for the seer to announce some innocents, makes other remarks about gifted revealing themselves. Says we will be wrong in the lynchings from time to time. Votes LMP.
3rd - "Most everything about Werewolf is nonsense, my dear Lommy."
4th - "Take what you can get, I guess..."

Day 2
1st - Thinks of looking at beginning of Ka voters or near the end
2nd - Thinks Nogrod is uptight, analyzes Ka voters. Doesn't know about Roa, thinks Enca is suspicious because of vote placement. Slightly less suspicious of Thin. Not sure about Jenny.
3rd - Clarifies post 57.
4th - No longer suspects Thin, defends against Thin's posts again.
No vote

Day 3
1st - Suspects Enca for voting the Ka, but thinks that already suspecting her makes it easy to think she is twisting Holby's analysis. Says got caught up in RL, but would have voted for Enca yesterday

[Roa_Aoife]

Eonwe, why do you say that you would have voted for Enca yesterday? There wasn't a really great case for her set up yet, and you hadn't expressed suspicion of her up till that point. Do you have a reason for the sudden change?

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, when you said to look at the Ka voters, you thought to look at the beginning or end votes, not at the middle, where Enca was. That's a little too convenient for my tastes. Only in your very next post did you look at the middle, suddenly thinking Enca was suspicious. You contradicted yourself. Can you explain?

EDIT: Just letting you know that I have to go for the time being. I'll be back about an hour before voting closes.

[JennyHallu]

Thank you, Ang, for elaborating on the case against Enca. I am not sure what I think of her, it's hard to see someone as wolvish whom you thought must be innocent all along. Rather humbling. I am going to have to consider long and hard before I make my decision today.

Naria, I am absolutely taking you off my suspicious list. I may not understand your voting, but I believe you are innocent. Nogrod is once again being silly:

This threat to reveal her identity seems quite dubious to me... as we seem to have better candidates for the seer's post around.

The Seer is not the only Gifted, Nogrod. And Ang makes a good point regarding speculation on the identity of the seer. I wonder if you carefully read the day's posting, as you go right back to such speculation.

My list so far:

Probably Innocent: Myself, Ang, Roa, Naria (whew, it's nice to cross so many off my list.)

Unsure: Nogrod, Encaitare, Eonwe (You make excellent points, Roa, I wonder how Eonwe has been slipping so easily under our radar...you'd think I would have learned after Mith in my past life...)

Looking very bad: Thinlomien, Gil

A further question for Thinlomien:

The possibility (mathematically) to catch even one wolf in two nights is very small. I think you shouldn't judge me or Naria on that basis. And if a seer doesn't know any of the wolves, she/he votes as randomly as anyone else (of course probably ruling out her/his known innocent). So please don't vote me only just because Holby didn't know I was innocent.

said by a seer I think must mean something. I think it means that Holby had dreamed about somebody of us bandwagoners and revealed he/she was a wolf. The bandwagoners are: LMP, Roa_Aoife, me, Enca and Jenny.

Either you think Holby dreamed of a wolf or you don't. If she did, she only expressed suspicion of you, and said nothing about Enca or myself. (She said nothing about myself at all)

This abrupt flip-flop, in a single post, seems to me wolvish. Its best defense is that I really don't think our wolves today are so clumsy.

[Valesse]

(This seemed quite long while I was writing it, and touched on to quite a few subjects so I revised into sections.)

Response to Holby:

Originally Posted by Holby

Don't find suspicious at this moment: Anguriel,Nogrod (despite the heated posts) and Roa_Aoife.

I'm very apt to take the seer's advice over my old hunch. Since there were two bandwagon votes on the first Day (as well you know more than probably anyone else.) I'm quite certain that Holby probably dreamed of Nogrod to see if we were correctly suspecting. Projected proof is more definative than tonal evaluation.

Absence of posts:
Really, I am quite sorry about how little I have been posting but between school and my birthday I suddenly became a very busy poultry gender analysist. I'm trying to at least get a post or two in each day, which isn't much, but know that it would be much more had I the time. (And really, most of the Day occurs while I'm off in dreamland-RL.) I was unaware exactly how much was going to happen at exactly the wrong time, so please bear with me (As long as the wolves and voters allow), because I'm doing the best that I can.

Discussion at hand:
Now for something on topic. Roa brought it up, and seeing as I'm not exactly wary of her I'm very keen on looking in to it:

not so long ago there was a story about a wolf named Ang who voted for his fellow wolf named Thin on the very first day, and got her lynched. He thus avoided suspicion till the very last day.

(Or post #169 if you'd like to see the quote she used to support.)

This on top of everyone else's research into the mind that is Thinlo has really got something to say for herself.

Considering the ramifications:
If Thinlo is OR is not a wolf then we should definitely look at post #231 (Post Analysis). I'm willing to assume that Thinlo and Holby might have downplayed their known allies, but so far I have not taken that into the account in my posts so far. It just bears mentioning in my honest opinion.