Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I misunderstood you.

But you had insufficient facts. I had voted for Aiwendil already. Formendacil said he will (cf. #458, 483). Then there's you and your consistent attack on him since DAY 1.

Three votes. He's doomed even before the votes were cast.

Someone might have joined in to look innocent.

I shouldn't post after midnight... but still, there was a slight chance that I'd accumulate three votes more rapidly... but then, you have a good point, the best bet would have been to vote for Aiwendil.

OK, we are back on the starting line but I'm off to be.... *ahem* do alchemy... d

[The Saucepan Man]

Well I, for one, am not taking anything for granted. It is, I suppose, fair to say that Glirdan looks the most suspicious, given his silence and in light of the fact that he is the only villager not to have voted for a Wolf. But he has good reason for his silence over the past few Days. I have a feeling that, if he were guilty, then he would not have turned up today as that only makes him look more suspicious. But if he is not guilty, then the remaining Wolf has voted for a fellow Wolf at least once, which is going to make it difficult to find him or her. In short, I think we need to think carefully before rushing to lynch Glirdan. It may well be that he is the last Wolf, but I would rather consider the remaining possibilities first.

In the meantime, here is yesterday's voting record. Although it probably won't tell us much as everyone voted for a Wolf, excpet Aiwendil (the Wolf in question) and Glirdan, neither of whom voted.

Voting:

1. Nilpaurion Felagund for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-1)
2. Celuien for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-2)
3. The Saucepan Man for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-3)
4. Farael for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-4)
5. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-5)

Did not vote: Aiwendil, Glirdan

Back shortly with some more thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Here are my thoughts on those that remain.

Farael: If Farael is a Wolf, then he and Aiwendil have been playing a very bold game. That said, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they were. It kept both him and Aiwendil from serious suspicion for the first few Days. Farael, because it was thought unlikely that a Wolf would come out so strongly against a single villager. And Aiwendil, because Farael's case was, at first at least, quite weak and easily answered by Aiwendil. Having gone strongly against Aiwendil at the beginning, he did, as I recall, rather back off when Aiwendil began to come under serious suspicion. I will have to look back and check the timing of this, but I think that it was on Day 4, when Eomer was lynched, that he declared that he did not suspect Aiwendil as much as his behaviour had indicated. He then said that Eomer was his main suspect, although somewhat ambiguously, but ended up not voting. The next Day, when Aiwendil remained under suspicion (particuarly from mormegil), he voted for himself. It was only yesterday, when Aiwendil was all but doomed, that Farael voted to seal his fate. In short, he is not cleared of suspicion in my mind, although if he is a Wolf, his strategy has been a very risky (albeit effective) one.

Celuien: If Celuien is a Wolf, then she is a brilliant actress. It is, however, possible that she picked up on Eomer's Ranger hints at the end of Day 4 and played along with it to either get tar-anclaime lynched in his place or, at the very least, make herself look more innocent. Yesterday, she started off more sympathetic towards Aiwendil than Farael yet, when it became clear (from what Nilp, Form and I had said) that Aiwendil was likely to be lynched, she was (rather easily, it seems to me) persuaded to vote for Aiwendil. Perhaps a ploy to make herself look innocent for the remainder of the game. Again, therefore, Celuien is not in the clear as far as I am concerned and in fact looks a more probable Wolf than Farael.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Well, if Nilp is a Wolf, he has voted twice for a fellow Wolf. And, in each case, he has voted first, which would have been an unnecessaily risky thing to do. That said, it is possible that, on each Day, he put in a Wolf-on-Wolf vote in the hope that village opinion would move away from the Wolf he had voted for. And, even if it did not, he would end up looking innocent, which indeed he has. However, while one Wolf-on-Wolf vote in these circumstances is plausible, two looks rather foolhardy.

Glirdan: As I said earlier, the only villager not to have voted for a Wolf. His main contribution has been to vote first for two innocents, both of whom were lynched on the Day he voted for them. Perhaps he was picking on likely candidates and attempting to start off bandwaggons. Other than his withdrawn vote for lmp (another likely candidate for lynching before he disappeared), he has not voted since. His silence over the last few Days, followed by his sudden reappearance today might also be regarded as suspicious. But I rather think that it is unlikely behaviour for a Wolf, precisely because it looks so suspicious. Nevertheless, he remains the most likely Wolf out of those remaining.

In summary, I think it most unlikely that Nilp is a Wolf. I can see a case for either Farael or Celuien being a Wolf. And Glirdan is currently the most Wolfish looking of all. Which gives me some doubt as to whether he is in fact a Wolf. Right now, I am almost more inclined to vote for Celuien or Farael than Glirdan.

[Celuien]

Again, therefore, Celuien is not in the clear as far as I am concerned and in fact looks a more probable Wolf than Farael.
....
In summary, I think it most unlikely that Nilp is a Wolf. I can see a case for either Farael or Celuien being a Wolf. And Glirdan is currently the most Wolfish looking of all. Which gives me some doubt as to whether he is in fact a Wolf. Right now, I am almost more inclined to vote for Celuien or Farael than Glirdan.

Well, I'm not. I voted for Aiwendil because I suspected him, though, grantedly, less than Farael at the time due to intuition. Since my intuition has invariably led me astray for the past few days, I let myself be persuaded, ignored the anti-Farael feeling, and voted Aiwendil. I'm glad I did, since I don't think Farael is a wolf now. Not after his loud accusations of Aiwendil. Though this could have been a bold set up from the beginning, somehow, I doubt it.

Farael's shifting suspicion to me is understandable. After all, you suspect me too, SPM, and I wasn't trying to get you lynched yesterday.

Anyway, if you really, really want to lynch me, go ahead. The village will still win tomorrow when you find out I'm not a wolf. Just take down Gaur-dan for me then. I'd rather be alive to see our victory, but such is life in Werewolf.

I have to go. So:

++GLIRDAN THE WOLF, FOUL FIEND OF SAURON

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, that was a rather dramatic vote!

I find it of some concern that Celuien has voted so early for Glirdan, without us having had much of an opportunity to discuss the other possibilities. Granted, she may well have good reason for having to vote early, but Glirdan is an obvious vote for a Wolf given how suspicious he is looking, and an early vote for him might be seen as a way of trying to ensure that he gets enough votes to condemn him.

I am beginning to suspect that Celuien may be our final, very clever, Wolf.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

460: Says that among Glirdan, Farael, and Aiwendil she's least suspicious of Aiwendil. Could be convinced to change her vote, though.

464: Thinks that it's a 100% that there is a Werewolf between Farael and Aiwendil. Still thinks Aiwendil is more innocent. Farael, she says, 'looks even odder after his self-vote . . .'

Thinks that Glirdan might be the best choice for that DAY, given the uncertainty between Aiwendil and Farael.

(I don't know; if we had lynched Farael then, we might have found out that he was innocent, and then got Aiwendil. Glirdan was a safe choice for both Werewolves then.)

468: Finds it hard to suspect Aiwendil because he thinks her innocent.

(Hmmm . . . )

Goes back to Aimè's suspicion list (Farael, Celuien, Nilpaurion). Thinks that he might have hidden a Werewolf among his choices. Says it brings her back to Farael.

Thinks that Farael or Glirdan could have discovered morm's secret profession, too.

474: Says she's more comfortable dealing with the Aiwendil/Farael issue now.

(I wonder why the . . . flip-flop.)

477: Defends self against Farael's accusation that she brought up Aimè's giftedness. Thinks it's making Farael look more Werewolvish.

486: Thinks that Farael is try to put suspicion on her with her earlier accusation.

491: Thinks Farael looks far more suspicious than Aiwendil. However, she sees the point in Sauce's post 487 about Aiwendil subtly prodding the village in the wrong direction.

493: Convinced by Sauce and votes for Aiwendil.

The froggie looks quite suspicious now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Thanks for that analysis, Nilp, which expands on my thoughts earlier concerning Celuien. I agree that there is a distinct possibility that she was hoping to protect Aiwendil but that, when she realised that the cause was hopeless, she abandoned him.

I have been looking back at Aiwendil's analyses of Glirdan and Celuien on Day 5. The links are here:

Glirdan

Celuien

His conclusions were as follows:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Conclusion: He [Glirdan] doesn't look incredibly suspicious to me, but he's certainly worrying me. His votes have all been for innocents who died that DAY. Too obvious for a wolf? Maybe. But somehow he's avoided much suspicion for most of the game.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

So I'm inclined to think Celuien is probably innocent, at the moment, if only for that reason.

So Aiwendil stated that he viewed neither as particularly suspicious, but said that Celuien was the more likely to be innocent. Would he say that about a fellow Wolf in circumstances where he might himself be revealed (as he was under suspicion that Day)? Morevoer, it is difficult to conclude much from what he says as my own analyses of them reached much the same conclusion as his. Aiwendil continued to state that he thought Celuien most likely innocent yesterday. His main (stated) suspects were Farael and Glirdan. Which leads me wonder whether our Wolf may be one of those two.

Interestingly, Aiwendil voted for Farael on Day 5 to put him ahead of Glirdan and tar-anacalime. Risky if they were both Wolves, but it would have stood to his credit had Farael been lynched and shown to be a Wolf.

This is most certainly a difficult dilemma. If Farael is a Wolf, then he almost deserves to win for his brilliant interplay with Aiwendil. I am hesitant about voting for Glirdan as I think that his pattern of behaviour (silence followed by his sudden appearance today) is just too suspicious for a Wolf. So I am leaning towards Celuien at the moment. But, again, I am hesitant because of Aiwendil's defence of her over the last two Days.

Good grief! It feels like we are almost back to square one. Still, I feel that we have a one in three chance of catching the Wolf today. And, if we are wrong, we will most likely have a one in two chance tomorrow.

I am, however, doubtful of my chances of still being here tomorrow if we do get it wrong, so I would rather like to catch the last Wolf today ...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Celuien

Her DAY 6 posts were especially suspicious.

[Glirdan]

Well, I'm much more calm then I was when I returned earlier toDay. Now to adress a few thing that have been said.

I expect more from you than this shrill defence of yourself.

We need thoughts. Views about the remaining villagers not stemming from anger over the accusations hurled against you.

1) Of course you'll hear more from me other than shrill defenses. Come on! You know I'm smarter than that!

2) What can you expect from me? I go away for three days and gave you all a long notice on it, I come back, just like I said I would, and see all these accusations. Did you honestly think that I would respond to these calmly and casually?

To begin with, let's face it... Celuien is accusing you because she can't accuse anyone else. She could go after me I guess as my innocence is not as established, but given yesterday's happenings and the fact that you are more suspicious, you are an easy choice. (Farael)

I'm an easy target, I agree with that. The problem I have is that she concentrates on me and doesn't even bother to look at you. She seems very eager to get me out of the way.

Now, I wonder, why would you react like you did? we all know that those who are silent are most likely to be suspected... you were silent, even if you had proper excuses, and so you are suspected. We had nothing to go on with, barely any voting record, no talk on both of the days we lynched a wolf. Don't you think that we AT LEAST have grounds to feel uneasy about you?(Farael)

I can't believe you'd honestly think that i would react any other way. I do see your point in having grounds to suspect me because of the scilence, yet you all knew of this scilence way in advance. As it so happens, the second Wolf you caught was during my pre-arranged abscence. The first Wolf was caught when I could not get to a computer.

And about my 'apparent' contradiction, I said both that we should give you a chance to talk... and that if you didn't show up we should get rid of you. I Think we are all aware that you were coming back toDay and thus if you were still away it might have been a smart wolvish move to let us wonder about you without giving us anything to work with. Where's the contradiction?(Farael)

It seemed like a contradiction at the time. But that's probably because I was looking for something to vent on. Sorry about that.

Now that we have given you a (short so far) chance to talk, I must say I think you should have stayed silent, then perhaps we would have had second-thoughts on that matter.(Farael)

I must disagree with you on this matter. From all the suspicions that I've been getting for the past few days, it seems like the chances of me staying alive would have been very slim. Not to mention, as SpM has stated, if I were to be silent toDay when I specifically said I'd be back toDay, that would make me look even more Wolvish.

I hope that cleared things up a bit Farael. If not, well, I don't know what else I can do to help. I'll be back with more.

[Celuien]

This is my reason for voting early. In fact, I'm at work now and about to be late.

Must go and meet with my team. Like I said before, kill me if you want, but remember me tomorrow.

Down with Glirdan the Terrible!

EDIT: crossed with SPM