Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

I know it's meaningless but I still feel uneasy about Glirdan. Much more uneasy than soon-to-be-dead Celuien anyway. The problem here is that, should Celuien be found innocent, I'm sure this will appear pretty bad to whoever is left an innocent along with me tomorrow. Anyway, I still don't buy Glirdan's defense of himself

++Glirdan

And may Eru forgive me if I'm wrong... oh, and forgiveness from Glirdan would be goood as well =P

[Shelob]

(The village had been quiet but, then again, there had been little for them to discuss. With only 5 remaining villagers and one of them a wolf there was no longer much need for long analysis of numerous people.)

Celuien: Well, I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t just lynch Glirdan right now.
Glirdan: I can think of a reason, a very good reason, I’m not a wolf. You though, you’re looking very wolfy.
Saucepan Man: I’m afraid I have to agree with Glirdan, our amphibian’s looking a bit fishy.
Nilp: Thanks for stealing my line, but I agree. Sorry Celuien.
Farael: I’m not so sure, I rather agree with Celuien. However…

(The villagers try to catch Celuien, being an amphibian she manages to avoid them for a while, but eventually they get her cornered in the fountain. Deciding that she really has no chance Celuien gives in and allows them to bring her to the gallows.)

Celuien:So long, (turning to address her oldest friend in the village) and thanks for all the fish.

(With that the villagers lynched their resident amphibian, who happened to be one fifth of their remaining villagers, and one fourth their remaining innocents. They depart from the square knowing that there is but one day more, come what may.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Glirdan
Nilpaurion Felagund

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)-- )--in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6
Aiwendil (Werewolf)--burned at the stake at the end of DAY 6
Formendacil (False Seer/Fool)--Done to death by numerous papercuts during NIGHT 7
Celuien (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of the 7th DAY

NIGHT 8 begins, wolf you know your job.

[Shelob]

(The villagers begin this day by entering the home of their esteemed fishmonger, as with wolf kills before things within the house seem slightly dishevelled and they were greeted by a corpse. In this case though there were a few unusual things about the corpse.)

Glirdan: Nilpaurion is…hanging…from the ceiling…
Farael: ...With a hook through his head…
Saucepan Man: Looks like he was stabbed before though, so at least the hook wasn’t what killed him.
Farael: Still though, and there was a curtain around him.
Glirdan: And a note saying “For a ducat I am slain”

(And so the villagers begin their final day, not knowing what will come from it.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Glirdan

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)-- )--in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6
Aiwendil (Werewolf)--burned at the stake at the end of DAY 6
Formendacil (False Seer/Fool)--Done to death by numerous papercuts during NIGHT 7
Celuien (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of the 7th DAY
Nilpaurion Felagund (Ordinary)--Fortunately not gutted during NIGHT 8

DAY 8 begins, whether you people catch the wolf or not this day ends it. Good Luck all.

[Glirdan]

Ok, now I'm seriously afraid. I know I'm completely innocent (even though neither of you will probably believe me). I don't know which of you to believe!! Normally if SpM is still alive, that does not bode well. But Farael is a sneaky kiniving fellow, but I think if he's the Wolf, then his game is up. If you really wanted to win, then you should have gone for SpM because I know for a fact that Nilp would have voted for me and now you leaving SpM alive might be your undoing. SpM, I don't know what to say to make you believe me, but I'm pretty sure you're innocent. If you're not, you're a very kiniving fellow and I wouldn't put it past you. I'm so horribly confused.....

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Normally if SpM is still alive, that does not bode well.

I must say that I am rather surprised to still be here. I suppose, given that Nilp was (thankfully) innocent after all, that it was always going to be either him or me that the Wolf would attack last night, but I rather expected it to be me.

Which leaves me with two fellow villagers, one of whom is a Wolf and the other of whom is innocent. My inclination, particularly after yesterday's events (and given all that Farael/Aiwendil business), is to think Glirdan the Wolf. But perhaps the reason that I am still alive is because a Wolfish Farael predicted that I would be inclined to that view. Then again, I am sure that Nilp would have felt the same way.

Anyway, for the sake of tradition, here is yesterday's voting record:

1. Celuien for Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Nilpaurion Felagund (Glirdan-1; Celuien-1)
3. The Saucepan Man for Celuien (Glirdan-1; Celuien-2)
4. Glirdan for Celuien (Glirdan-1; Celuien-3)
5. Farael for Glirdan (Glirdan-2; Celuien-3)

I am not sure that it reveals much, although it is notable that Farael voted for Glirdan at a time when Celuien was already headed for the noose. Possibly, it was a pre-emptive Wolfish attempt to sway the remaining innocent against Glirdan today. But that would seem rather obvious.

Back shortly with more thoughts. I want to review the Farael/Aiwendil thing and see whether there is any possibility that it was a Wolfish ploy.

[Farael]

You forget two things Glirdan... first of all, the two remaining innocents have voted for at least one wolf before (I missed the deadline in the voting for Eomer). Second, if indeed I were the wolf, why would I kill Nilp who has not suspected me once? he voted me on the first day based on a promise he made, but since then he has not really accused nor voted for me.

On the other hand SPM has at the very least doubted me. I hope his doubts are clear now, but it'd be much better for a Farael wolf to get rid of that really smart man rather than Nilp who can barely post twice given his timezones.

Furthermore, if you were innocent, why not kill you off? SPM will not suspect Nilp because of the "anagram scandal" and vice-versa so that'd leave me as the odd man out... werewolf win.

If SPM is a werewolf, not only he has voted for his fellow werewolves twice, but he has done it before it was clear they 'd be dead... awfully daring and it might make for a few enemies once the game is over. If the wolves actually planned this, then hats off to them but.... it's unlikely

Finally, All you have done is try to defend yourself. Your post toDay was very defensive even though no-one had had a chance to voice any suspicions against you just yet... do you really think I'm that much of an easy target? I'd vote for you right now Glirdan, but as someone said once, let's not be hasty....

[Glirdan]

You forget two things Glirdan... first of all, the two remaining innocents have voted for at least one wolf before (I missed the deadline in the voting for Eomer).(Farael)

Is it my fault that I had absolutely no computer access for both times??

Second, if indeed I were the wolf, why would I kill Nilp who has not suspected me once? he voted me on the first day based on a promise he made, but since then he has not really accused nor voted for me.(Farael)

That's exactly what a Wolf would say. Nilp was the perfect target for you because of him not being suspicious of you. Him thinking you innocent would make a perfect cover story for you if he was innocent. If you got rid of me, then the suspicions probably would have shifted straight to you. Since Nilp already thought you innocent, attacking SpM would have been pretty safe for you and I would have been lynched. I really don't know why you didn't go with that last option.

Furthermore, if you were innocent, why not kill you off? SPM will not suspect Nilp because of the "anagram scandal" and vice-versa so that'd leave me as the odd man out... werewolf win.(Farael)

I just answered that above. The suspicion would automatically shift to you. Honestly, if I were a Wolf, I probably just wouldn't have shown up yesterDay and even if I did show up and had another kill, I'd probably would have went for you. No matter what, it's a village win. Do you think me that stupid??

If SPM is a werewolf, not only he has voted for his fellow werewolves twice, but he has done it before it was clear they 'd be dead... awfully daring and it might make for a few enemies once the game is over. If the wolves actually planned this, then hats off to them but.... it's unlikely (Farael)

My thoughts exactly. Mind you, the fact that he's still around is rather....unnerving.

Finally, All you have done is try to defend yourself. Your post toDay was very defensive even though no-one had had a chance to voice any suspicions against you just yet... do you really think I'm that much of an easy target? I'd vote for you right now Glirdan, but as someone said once, let's not be hasty....(Farael)

Did you expect anything less from me on the last Day?? You have really surprised me these past two Days. Of course I'm going to defend myself. My head is pretty much on the chopping block. If you really think about, our fates lie in the hands of SpM...who might be the final Wolf. Unlikely, yet possible.

I must say that I am rather surprised to still be here. I suppose, given that Nilp was (thankfully) innocent after all, that it was always going to be either him or me that the Wolf would attack last night, but I rather expected it to be me. (SpM)

Like I said, you being here is unnerving. But I'm pretty sure you're innocent, especially when you look at your voting record.

I am not sure that it reveals much, although it is notable that Farael voted for Glirdan at a time when Celuien was already headed for the noose. Possibly, it was a pre-emptive Wolfish attempt to sway the remaining innocent against Glirdan today. But that would seem rather obvious.

If I may say something in my defense (that's right Farael, I'm DEFENDING myself), my vote was going to be for Celuien all Day. I just held it off to see if something would pop up to change my view and vote. I also find that Farael's vote was a rather safe vote. He didn't want to be one who voted for an innocent(proven at the end of the Day) because he already had suspicon on him and didn't want to add more to him.

I hope you return soon SpM. As I said, our fates lie in your hands.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have had a chance to briefly review the Farael/Aiwendil business, and it has not really changed the conclusion that I reached yesterday - that it remains possible that Farael is a Wolf who has been pursuing a very bold strategy. But, if so, it has also been an extremely risky strategy, given the suspicion that his erratic behaviour has attracted. Nevertheless, it has enabled him to survive until the final Day.

The votes yesterday could be read either way. Glirdan voted for Celuien, now a known innocent. Then again, if a Wolf, why would he do so when her fate was already all but sealed? To make it look less Wolfish? Farael's vote, on the other hand, could also be seen as Wolfish, as Celuien was shortly to be revealed as an innocent.

As for today, Farael seems to be continuing aggressively to pursue Glirdan, while Glirdan is behaving far more defensively. Glirdan's behaviour looks the more innocent, but then perhaps he is hoping that I will think that way.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

As I said, our fates lie in your hands.

Indeed, as does the fate of our poor, depleted village. And I really have no idea which way to cast my vote. Still, there is time yet, and I am hoping (perhaps against the odds) that things may become clearer as the Day progresses.