WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Eonwe]

Lets see, here's some things to think about:

First off, sorry for not voteing again yesterDay. I fully intended to vote for Enca, but got sidetracked.

Anyway, I know I'm innocent. Ang is either playing a deparate game, or is entirely innocnet. If I'm not mistaken, we have a seer left, don't we? Or not? If so, that seer has a great many known innocents stashed away, and what with our Hunter and Ranger, that would narrow teh list almost to the point where we could go by process of elimination. Either he's innocent, or hopeing to be saved till last, and that he will have just enough time. Anyway, two votes consecutively for Enca puts him in a great light, but that could be just what he wants, especially considering he's found a way onto my 'innocent' list.

Lommy is also looking pretty good. Consider the two votes from Enca. This can be innterperted as evidence for and against, but I think that it is more against her being a wolf, espcially combined with her insane talkativeness (no offense ).

That leaves us, or me at least with JennyHallu, Roa_Aoife, Nogrod, Gil-Galad, and Valesse. Five players.

Gil-Galad has been to quiet and away too much to be really suspicious of being a wolf. I think it would be cheap to be so distant if you were a wolf. But that really proves nothing.

So I have to say my list to be examined is made up of JennyHallu, Roa_Aoife, Nogrod, and Valesse.

As for Ang's idea of a mass revelation, I think that would be an excellent idea. Narrow the list as much as possible, especially while we have so many Gifted left.

[Nogrod]

What I am concerned about, is the possibility of this mass-revelation playing to the hands of the wolf somehow. I've had to concentrate on those RL-exams, and hadn't have time to think this thoroughly over.

I was just wondering, whether in the situation of us all revealing ourselves - and the wolf being out of any suspicion, hiding as an ordo (Ang f.ex.) - the wolf could still make this a winning game, from a quite desperate situation? Wouldn't a wise wolf just try something like this in these circumstances?

Remember. Holby's set of "probably innocents" were Roa, Ang and me. She could have known for sure only two of them. And really knowing even two from us, would be quite fantastic indeed. Roa seems innocent because of revealing THE Ka at the first round of the game (would really be a cunning wolf indeed to kill her partner the very first night!) and Ang has voted Enca consistently for two days untill killed as a WW (wolf killing wolf again?). But after my name, there was the extra focus (oh, my broken english!) in parentheses: "despite the heated posts" - or whatever the exact wording was. So I believe, she had dreamed of me and knew my innocence and tried to show you, that I shouldn't be worth killing anyhow.

This just leaves me with the question of Ang's and Roa's innocence. They both seem innocent to me, they sure do! But that's just the problem. A very good wolf would look just like that!

Now I know, that this revealment tactics would settle the matter concerning the gifteds. What I'm afraid of, is that, which happens after the revelations. The wolf will know the gifteds and kills them one by one (the hunter is a case a bit different), and if the villagers are Gil-like posters, dropping in once aDay, they will be of no match for the wolf.

I am truly ready to back up the revelation-plan, after some more clear arguments in favor of it - and after done some thinking myself. Mainly anyone clearing my fears of a possible jackpot for the wolf with this and the grounded vision of our enhanced probabilities with it. I'm not against the plan as such, just hope that any more experienced players back it up a bit before we go on with it.

Good night (RL)!

PS: Eonwe: we do have one seer left!

[Eonwe]

The thing is, there are seven of us innocents left. After this Evening, there will be only six. There will be three Gifted, leaving the Wolf a fifty-fifty chace of killing a gifted, and the Gifted being completely usless. Time is catching up with us, albiet, not at a very great pace, but stilll, the last wolf is often the hardest.

Nogrod, I think it is very dangerous ground when you speak of 'Holby's Innocent List' (ei. Enca's twisting analysis). After all, until she came out and said "I dreamed of him and he is Innocent!" we really don't know.

PS. Work will keep me until 3:30 tommarrow, so anything I do will have to be done tonight.

[Gil-Galad]

all that i really have to say is that it would be a waste to lynch me in one day, but if you double lynch me, you will have 50% chance of getting a wolf then, so i say that you have to be very careful, two wolves are down, and we get the third wolf it will be a great day for us villagers, and Nogrod, i would like to think why voting for Jenny was outrageus?


oh and the wolf will only kill me if he feels threatened and wants to play it safe, so if i get killed off by wolves, i urge you to look at the people that didn't vote for me and look at the person that got second-pressure to me.

[Valesse]

The Herald's Call:
This "Great Reveal" seems a little too risky to me.

Nogrod pointed out the math (post #283) but with such stylish phrases as:

Originally Posted by Ang

If you consider the situation, it will become clear to you that only a desperate and cornered werewolf would shun its advantages.

I don't blame him for the foggy post ending. I can see the advantages to this plan, but frankly I believe we should not be so hasty as to give out our roles quite yet. Lets not just take an idea and run with it... after all I remember one wolf that tricked me into playing his little game which I survived, but only just.

That isn't to say I feel that our honorable Anguriel is a wolf for forging this, but that there is still a possiblity, and we have to remember that we're offering our trust in what may just be a devious plan. Perhaps Ang did not see the math when he thought this up, but the wolf definitely has now. Its a matter of odds, and those might still be far too wide.

If it is the village's want to go through with it, and they have faith in it, I'll do my part, but as for now until I am reassured, it just doesn't seem fool-proof yet.

Gil-Galad's Fate:
Though I object to some of the border-line name calling thats been going on, I quite agree with the general consensis at this time. Partly because I'm guilty of the same "crime", and partly because I rather like having an extra villager on our side. I'm glad that we all basically feel that it is for the better of the village to no longer do away with those who might not be the most productive, but in their own respect keep the village alive.

I'm also interested in hearing his voting reason, as it was promised.

[Eonwe]

Man, I do so hate werewolf. All that is going on in my head is playing a bluff-double bluff-triple bluff-nth bluff game.

Anyway, I think Nogrod got some of the math wrong. At least he left out some possiblilities. Consider:

We have one seer left. There have been four nights, and so four dreams. That is five known innocents at least (if two of the dreams were Ranger and Hunter + the seer). At most we have seven (4 dreams, 1 seer, ranger and hunter). We might get lucky and get a ranger save, or at least another seer dream. There are actually quiet allot of possiblities...let me see.

Hmmm. Guys this really is a no brainer. The seer must come out. Just think it over, and know that the ranger will sacrafice himself, and you will get another dream, hopefully narrowing an already small field to two. And taht is a worst case senario. Best case, you have it pretty much wrapped up, if you don't throw it away by waiting one night to long and getting killed.

PS. this post does not show the evolution of my thought prossesses, just the final product, hence the leap to no brainer. Just think about it and perhaps you can draw some diagrams like I did. I swear, werewolf has a hold on my life entirely to great...

[JennyHallu]

Gah! I'm so confused. Are we revealing, or not? And where's Roa?

And Gil, the vote is outrageous, until you explain WHY exactly you voted for me. Please, and thank you.

EDIT: Xposted with Eonwe

[Eonwe]

cross posted last time with jenny.

um, where did gil vote for you? am i totally missing it?

oh and consider this: mass lynching, though i hate to say it. to much liek russian purges or something, but hey i'd martyr if i had to. (and i'm sure ang will hate the thought but i think it is a legit tactic )

[JennyHallu]

Post 159, I think, Eonwe.

[Eonwe]

Ah, back aways, eh? I agree, that doesn't look so good, leaving that hanging so...

Seer, really you should consider carefully. Though I really think you have every reason and chance to make it work...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

But if I had to choose which one (if, worst case scenario) both were wolvish, I would rather have around...Lommy's more likely to make her wolvishness obvious. Enca seems more dangerous...I'll wait just a little longer...

Apparently, even stupid villagers can help the village to lynch the wolves...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Remember. Holby's set of "probably innocents" were Roa, Ang and me. She could have known for sure only two of them.

Three, if she revealed her fellow seer.

And people who suspect me, I tell you this: why would two wolves (Enca and the imaginary wolf-Thinlómien) bandwagon for the same person (and their fellow wolf!) on Day1? Why would they have posted evidence against each other (like me and Enca yesterday) and then voted for each other? I don't think that wolves are so keen on killing each other.

My main suspects are Eonwe and Valesse. I don't have any special suspicions against them, but I think the rest less suspicious.

I disagree about lynching Gil. I think we shouldn't lynch him, because no wolf would be so careless as he is. And if he is a wolf he really doesn't play a fair game. Probably by lynching him we would just lose one more innocent. Makes no sense to me.

I'm still pondering, whether I'm for or against the mass revelation. I'd say I'm for it, but I'm sure there's some fault that we haven't noticed in it. And Ang, I didn't get your point against Nogrod's "ranger remains secret"-theory.

Though I know why I'm not so keen on that theory. Many enough villagers have declared their ordoness and thus if the seer and the hunter reveal themselves, there aren't very many possibilities, who's the ranger and the wolf'll probably get him/her anyway.

[Thinlómien]

What I forgot to say in my previous post is that I'm very happy to be alive. When I first got to know it I was so happy and even happier when I heard that we had lynched a wolf. Thanks for killing her rather than me. (And I know that now Ang or someone else as grumpy says I seem wolvish because of my thanking, but I really don't care. I just wanted to express my gratefulness and rejoice the death of one murderer.)

Originally Posted by Eonwe

but I think that it is more against her being a wolf, espcially combined with her insane talkativeness (no offense ).

No offense taken, but I have really been quite normal after Day1, haven't I? (Okay, I still have the most posts on this thread, but Nogrod is only two posts after me.)

(And Eonwe, I can't take you seriously when you're having that avvie - are you aware that it resembles the crazy donkey in Shrek very, very much?)

Case Eonwe

Originally Posted by Roa's analysis, which I found good, so I let it be and analysed the rest

Day 1
1st post - nonsense
2nd - Says there is no real formula in WW, suggests waiting for the seer to announce some innocents, makes other remarks about gifted revealing themselves. Says we will be wrong in the lynchings from time to time. Votes LMP.
3rd - "Most everything about Werewolf is nonsense, my dear Lommy."
4th - "Take what you can get, I guess..."

Day 2
1st - Thinks of looking at beginning of Ka voters or near the end
2nd - Thinks Nogrod is uptight, analyzes Ka voters. Doesn't know about Roa, thinks Enca is suspicious because of vote placement. Slightly less suspicious of Thin. Not sure about Jenny.
3rd - Clarifies post 57.
4th - No longer suspects Thin, defends against Thin's posts again.
No vote

Day 3
1st - Suspects Enca for voting the Ka, but thinks that already suspecting her makes it easy to think she is twisting Holby's analysis. Says got caught up in RL, but would have voted for Enca yesterday

No vote.

Day 4
1st - Apologises not voting and gives no valid explanation. Says he would have voted Enca. Says he thinks Ang is innocent, or less probably a desperate wolf. Doesn't suspect Thinlómien because the votes from Enca combined with talkativeness. Doesn't suspect Gil. Suspects Jenny, Roa, Nog and Val. Supports mass revelation.
2nd - Explains the game. Warns Nog about trusting in Holby's lists.
3rd - Again does WW-maths and supports mass revelation strongly.
4th - Asks Jenny for clearance, is willing to be a martyr.
5th - Says the seer has to think carefully about coming out.

That's him today this far. One thing troubles me:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

PS. Work will keep me until 3:30 tommarrow, so anything I do will have to be done tonight.

Where does he live? What is "tonight" for him? Does that mean that his "tonight" is over and he won't come back to vote? His voting record isn't looking very good at the moment, and one non-voting more will make it look even worse.

[Anguirel]

Actually, Thinlomien, regarding you I'm not "grumpy" at all. I'm almost certain you're innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Actually, Thinlomien, regarding you I'm not "grumpy" at all. I'm almost certain you're innocent.

That's nice. But I don't know if "grumpy" was the best word at all, but I was just a bit surprised on your quick reaction on Jenny's apology and just wondered would you think the same way about my thanks.

[Anguirel]

Next time "irascible" will do just fine...

If you bunglers don't go through with the mass-revelation I will sign my last will and testament, and then I think vote for either Jenny_Hallu or more likely Valesse, explaining my reasons for so doing. But I still strongly urge you all to show some spirit and courage by discarding cloak and dagger scheming and coming out in the open.

Seer, I believe you know I'm innocent. So you at least will not be swayed by the paranoiacs who think I'm acting on false pretences. Believe me when I say I am acting, true, supremely for my own good, but with the good of you all not so behind.

All those of you with special abilities have a chance to go one better and be transmuted, like lead to gold, to heroes for the self-sacrificial love of your fellow inmates.

[JennyHallu]

Well, I'm checking in...probably won't be posting much before the deadline, actually need to work today.

Ang, it sounds like you're right, that mass revelation is a good idea. However, if the seer hasn't dreamed about you, I could see you making him/her very very paranoid. At this point, it's the seer's choice whether or not to reveal, and I can't see anything anyone says making one whit of difference.

Therefore...

I'm off to work. I'll lurk and read, and vote later, but probably won't post unless something really strikes me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Next time "irascible" will do just fine...

I need a Finnish-English dictionary for that sophisticated words... But I promise to keep it in mind.

Eonwe is troubling me very much, in a way he is very wolfish, but in another way he seems very innocent.

And Valesse is slippery. Everyday someone voices suspicion of her and Nogrod even did an analysis on her, but she is never a serious candidate to be lynched. That troubles me as well.

And if the honourable gifteds wish to come out, it should be done soon since there are always a few early-voters and when there's so few people left their vote is very important as well as the late-voters'.

EDIT:xed with Jenny

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Jenny

However, if the seer hasn't dreamed about you

And why would Holby have trusted Ang so much that she gave the anvil hint, if the seers hadn't dreamed about Ang?

I trust Ang, but I don't know if I trust his revelation plan.

(Ah, and I'm filp-floppy again. I'm not particulary good at deciding things.)