Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Garin]

Dancing Spawn: But if Valier was the other lover, why would she 'send a message'. If she was a Lover and TGWBS was the other one, Valier's or TGWBS' fellow wolves would understand right away, what's going on. I don't believe that the Lovers will be leaving clues for each other. Why would they?

Agreed, I find it unlikely that a Lover would be so bold but from what I know of Valier ... I'm not convinced that her tendency toward unbridaled giddiness can be discounted.

I think I am destined to have an a contentious relationship with her, so I guess I am getting it out of the way.

Cailin
Early, early votes are always disturbing but would also be a bold move for a wolf. I actually find her innocent at the moment.

Due to my temper, I will want revenge against anyone who dare suspects me, so be forewarned.

Spawn
Of course I would like to find a wolf prior to the 'innocent' lover and NO it isn't neccessarily easier to find four wolves than two lovers. You see, anyone in love has had their brain removed and will be decidedly less clever than the canines.

At least I am not jaded. (sarcasm)

[Garin]

I am a WOLF.

Lynch me now. It's your best hope.

++Nilpauri-

Hang on, that's not my name.

++TGWBS

Oh for the love of crumb-cake Guy. It appears you are channeling our fallen Nilp from the great beyond. Posessed you are..

I am inclined to vote for you but almost more inclined to vote for myself.

In honor of the late great Prince Nilp...

I am not a wolf.

++Garin

[Anguirel]

I am now quite convinced I am the sanest man in this village.

And the Hedgehog Chieftain agrees with me.

[Garin]

I am now quite convinced I am the sanest man in this village.

Anguirel, it pains me to say it but you might be correct. Not that I'm willing to definitively declare you a MAN just yet. I am being swayed.

Intersting vote, Garin. Though I don't see how mass suicides honor our Prophet...

Eonwe, I am actually not sure what came over me, I've always held the suicidal with great contempt.

I never handle inclimate weather very well.

What is done is done. Forgive me village.

[the guy who be short]

Garin no longer wishes to die.

I think you all know where to direct your votes.

Goodnight.

[Garin]

Garin no longer wishes to die.

Correction, I ALWAYS WISH I WERE DEAD, I am normally opposed to making that decision for myself.

I am not sure what advice to give the rest of the villiage, but I will be monitoring.

[Garin]

Glirdan: Yes, because we're all not busy sleeping IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT!!

Are you too busy PMing the other wolves?

[SamwiseGamgee]

Spawn, you have raised the issue that my suspicions of Cailin may have seemed baseless, due to a lack of evidence. So here we go: Posts #5 & #9 between them point the finger at eight- that's right, eight- different individuals. That's over one third of our village randomly accused by this little lady. That's at least a little suspicious, isn't it? Couple this with a very early vote and Cailin makes my list. Not my 'Is a wolf and must be horribly murdered' list, but at least my 'Ooh, that's odd' list.

Now Gurthang did make a valid point, as I see it: TGWBS's suicidal vote is, by any standard, somewhat odd. Yet surely no self-respecting wolf would try it? However, we can't rule out some absolutely crazy double bluff on day one. If TGWBS weathers this storm he could sail in smoother seas for a few days after it, so we must be careful.

My advice to my fellow villagers: be patient, and consider shrewdly your vote. Today, more than any other, we run a risk of killing two innocents by tomfoolery. We can't let that happen. So, wait as late as possible to vote and do so wisely.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I can't let this happen. I don't think either of our top-vote candidates guilty, but now that we're in double-lynch territory I feel we need to get out. So, on the basis that he has confused me more than TGWBS, and confusion breeds suspicion etc:

++ GARIN

I'm sorry if you're innocent, but better two heads than one.

[Thinlómien]

I went through Glirdan's post and didn't find anything particularly suspicious. Please don't follow my example. I believe he's innocent.

EDIT: xposted with Gurthang

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

What a dilemma!

I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled. I feel the sincerity in their posts, and I know that all the jumpiness is only normal.

Lhuna, you speak sense. I agree with your last post there, and I don't know whom to vote...

As the tie has now been taken care of, I'll vote

++Eonwe

because his reasons were just a bit too weird.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Or alternatively, perhaps they thought Ang's defence of Garin meant they were the two Seers. (A VERY reckless pair, if that had been so!)
In that case, back to the original theory that Ang - or even Garin - might have said something Seerish through chance.

But at the end of the Day it was proved that Garin was no Seer. Why would they then have thought that Anguirel was his fellow Seer?

Or maybe tgwbs is right and we are spending too much on this.

Perhaps. Or maybe Anguirel's death will tell us more after a few days.



This Lhuna issue might be worth closer examining, I think.

#120: "I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled."

"Two other people stood out for me toDay: Lalaith, Naria, and Eonwe." ~Lhuna

(Actually, that's three. )


12 minutes before the deadline, Formendacil comes and makes a tie. Interesting...

"Alas, though, I have little choice if I want to save Garin. Old players will know that I judge players by how "normal" their playing style is, and both Garin and Glirdan seem completely normal." ~Form

I use that tactic sometimes, too. That said, I think Lhuna's behaviour has changed quite a bit from the usual. More insecure and apologetic, I'd say.

"And I can but hope that Lhuna or some other late voter (IS there another voter as yet unvoted) will break the tie..." ~Form

Quite risky behaviour from Formendacil, but then again, he knew that Lhuna was around. Not that it helped, though, since she didn't break the tie.

#123: "This could possibly put me in trouble if Garin's found indeed innocent, but I have to make a stand. I'm so sorry, Garin..." ~Lhuna

There's the apology. Villagers whose actions are decorated with apologies are creeping me out. I can't understand that she didn't want to save Garin even though she seemed confident that he was innocent. Instead she voted for someone who had no chance of getting killed yesterDay in place of Garin or TGWBS. The fact that we were uncomfortably close to a double-lynch doesn't help either.

#139: "I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer" ~Lhuna

A wolvish confession?

#154: "Seriously, Samwise...after suspecting those who voted for tgwbs, how could I bring myself to vote for him to save Garin? I still think he's innocent" ~Lhuna

So, it was better to risk two lives that you deemed to be innocent instead of saving one of them?

Right now your actions feel rather wolvish, young missy.

[Lalaith]

But at the end of the Day it was proved that Garin was no Seer. Why would they then have thought that Anguirel was his fellow Seer?

Doh!
Sorry. Of course.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think we should pay attention to Caralondien, Naria and Valier. Just because they will otherwise just go unnoticed. Not that there's much to analyse about them, but I'm just saying we shouldn't forget them.Day one already passed, they've proven (at least Cara and Naria) to be good at not getting attention.

There are some other people that have escaped doubt. But I myself admit that we can't concentrate in analysing everyone. I just fear that (a) silent wolf/wolves will slip unnoticed when loud villagers/wolves/lovers/gifteds hang each other.

Those three have been very chary of words, but while we await them to join us toDay, we can analyse those who have said enough instead of just twirling our thumbs, yes?


*sigh*

Okay, I try...
Here's what I found out of Naria:

#29 - Isn't impressed by Gurthang's post #20 where he claims that randomly speaking, Naria is a wolf. I don't know why Naria chose to answer this "accusation", but she doesn't seem overly defensive or anything.

Originally Posted by Naria

But I digress, and will myself, look a little deeper and see what I can see before vote time.

Well, I'd have liked to hear more of her thoughts, but maybe some other time then, because she posted only once after this yesterDay.

#139 - Says Garin is probably being just himself. Thinks that TGWBS' vote is stupid, and votes for him because usually she would have voted for Nilp (and TGWBS is the closest equivalent in this game, or something like that. Notice, btw, that Nilp's never been a wolf, so I'm not sure if that's so good a reason for a vote ).

~The End~

All in all, I'm not suspicious of Naria right now, because she's acting like I would have expected.

I'm not sure if I have time to analyse Valier or Caralondien now (they've posted a tad more than Naria), so someone else can do that if they want to.

Edit: A horrible thought just occured to me. Maybe I'm suspicious of Naria anyway...

[Caranlondien]

DAY ONE

Post #18
Asks that Louds talk as much as usual and Quiets post at the very least once per day.
Responds to Lhuna, who requested that we not spread our votes too thin, by asking how thin is too thin?
Responds to Eomer, who had said something about not lynching Lhuna, by asking if he has a reason not to.

#52
Says, "The werewolves are understandably being very cautious today."
Says that Gurthang (who had suggested TGWBS and Valier were the Lovers) is being over-eager, but that is nothing out of the ordinary.
Points out that Valier accused "the unemployed" rather randomly (but we were all being random that day, so I don't think it's so strange).
Takes note of Samwise's accusation of Cailin, based on her early and random vote for Lalaith. Says this isn't much evidence against Cailin.
Says that Lhuna's suggestion that we not spread the votes too thin is "not as helpful as it seems".
Brings up Eomer's (brief) defense of Lhuna.
Lists those who have given substantive posts already:
Lalaith #4
Spawn #7, 17, 30
Cailin #9
Celuien #12
Kath #16
Samwise #48
Caran #49
Eonwe #50
Ang #51
But, we know there was at least one wolf in there.

Post #67
Responds to Anguirel, who had written:

Ah. LMP, my axe had forgotten about you...

I'm tempted to accuse you at once, but auld lang syne works better as a last minute swing than as the foundation for a denunciation.

Still, stone-cutter, I'm not a-liking your arbitrating tone of voice. ..

Replies with in-character jest. Of course, Anguirel was killed by the werewolves the first night; I can't remember if anyone brought this up in Days past, but this might also have pointed back to LMP. I'm more inclined to attribute it to his accusation against Kath, though.

Post #68
Responds to Eomer's plan, which involved voting for LMP. Says "If you feel you must. 'Twould be a shame if it backfired..."

Post #87
Lists the vote tally so far, and says he is disconcerted that more votes have not already been cast.

Post #91
Suggests that perhaps the werewolves are waiting to vote later. Says the werewolves are hiding well. Votes for Eomer, saying that

Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.

DAY TWO

Post #206
Defends vote for Eomer based on Eomer's defense of Lhuna and his cryptic vote, which LMP argued could be interpreted in various ways.
His defense of his vote is rather long, but not really suspicious-looking, as he was asked for a defense. He points some suspicion towards Lhuna, saying possibly she and Eomer are the Lovers.

Post #219
Points out that the Ordo-Lover probably knows the identities of the wolves.

Post #221
Responds to Caranlondien's statement that "LMP is looking suspicious[/B] for what I called his "attack" on Lhuna and Eomer. He points out that he was asked for an explanation of his vote (which I hadn't noticed). Once again, nothing really suspicious.
Says that Eomer, Spawn, and tar-ancalime are above his suspicion for the day, due to they have been concise, well-reasoned, and suspecting the same people he suspects. 2/3 of those people are now known innocents.

Post #224
Quotes The Mod God's rules concerning the Lovers to show that the wolf can, indeed, tell the ordo-lover who the wolves are.

Post #228
Responds to Samwise's displeasure at his thought about the Lovers.

Post #270
Raises point:

One of the best werewolf strategies is to say as much that is true as you can, so that the few lies you must tell slip by. However, some basically honest people can't help themselves, and when they play werewolf, they confess more than they mean to.

Points this out about Lhuna. Also points out that Lalaith has been "polling the village."
Brings up Cailin's suggestion that we lynch another guy. Honestly, I had forgotten that [B]Cailin[B] brought up this plan before TGWBS even did. She was more subtle about it, so there wasn't as strong a reaction. LMP, howev er, asks:

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

Says Lhuna, Cailin, and Lalaith seem to be looking out for each other. Says he may vote for one of them, or for Eonwe or Samwise.

Post #272
Says he's more suspicious of Lhuna and less suspicious of Eonwe.

Post #273
Strongly accuses Lhuna.

Post #274
Seems sure of Lhuna's guilt, and votes for her.

Post #277
Says with five voters to go, all hope is not yet lost for toDay. (Hopes we will lynch Lhuna).

DAY THREE

Post #316
Criticizes Farael's argument as a "trumped up story" (Which we later found to be true). Scolds the villagers for voting based on what annoys us.

Post #317
Thinks Farael might be "a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love." (Implying Lhuna to be the wolf in the relationship...)
Suggests we double-lynch Lhuna and Farael.

Post #320
Says TGWBS's plan (actually just a formalization of Cailin's plan) has flaws.

Post #416
Asks "What did the dead innocent get right?" Looks at both lynched innocents and those killed by werewolves.

EDIT: Forgot to label it as "LMP"

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien, concerning LMP

Post #317
Thinks Farael might be "a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love." (Implying Lhuna to be the wolf in the relationship...)
Suggests we double-lynch Lhuna and Farael.

That's really interesting... how did he guess? This - I think - might point to his wolvishness, though the matter is not as simple as it seems...

[Caranlondien]

Sorry, I have to go and I can't finish right now. I'll be back soon!

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Garin

Due to my temper, I will want revenge against anyone who dare suspects me, so be forewarned.

I guess that's directed toward me? Be it known, I am not suspecting you. I find a very large difference in voting suspecting/accusing. And I do hope that my fellow villagers will not fall prey to unfounded suspicions, and keep votes based on occupation, or whathaveyou, as just that: simpley votes, to pass the time, so to speak.

Intersting vote, Garin. Though I don't see how mass suicides honor our Prophet...

[Glirdan]

I am now quite convinced I am the sanest man in this village.

And the Hedgehog Chieftain agrees with me.(Ang)

Just because I'm unemployed doesn't mean I'm not sane.

Tah for now! Oh just thinking to myself who would have the time on their hands to kill our Nilp? THE UNEMPLOYED that's who!(Valier)

Yes, because we're all not busy sleeping IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT!! Sheez!! Seriously Ang, I'm in major agreement with you. We are the only sane people in this village. Nilp got attacked AT NIGHT!! We WOKE UP to find him dead!! No one is stupid enough (until the lynching) to kill someone in broad day light!!

And I understand that everyone wants to honour our dead Prophet, but how can you do that if you're dead!? Seriously, I know it's only the first day, but I'm already angered!

[Garin]

Kath: The two seers comment explained. Even if we kill an innocent lover we'll have three wolves versus two seers at that point. I like our (meaning villagers) chances, if that is the case.

I am inclined to trust Anguirel at this point but I am not flogging a dead issue as long as others continue to talk about it.

Killing the innocent lover would be the same as a double lynching. In those cases we can only hope to kill at least one wolf.

BUT YES, we should concentrate on the lupines and not this star-crossed lover.

"Who are the wolves? A show of hands please...."

EDIT: "paws please...."

[SamwiseGamgee]

It's a fair point well taken, Farael. As Garin, I'm inclined to believe Ang and let sleeping dogs lie. As for my hair growth, good sir, that is something which only my good lady wife shall ever know!

[Kath]

Well now this presents a problem. Having not seen Garin's reply til just now I was quite prepared to vote for him over that Seer comment, but yet again it was my misunderstanding that was causing all the problems

But, this means I have about 3 minutes before I have to put the turtles to bed (I won't be back again toDay) and no genuine suspect. I don't want to be purely random as that will be no help to anyone. Therefore I shall vote

++EOMER

Because (though I think this is repeating a past argument) if he's a wolf then better to get rid of him now, and if he's an innocent we won't be worrying about whether he's a wolf for the rest of the game! A hedging your bets argument it is I'll admit, but it's all I have.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well I must head to slumberland right now, but I hope to be back before night falls. I would vote now and get myself an extra hour in bed, but I just can't justify voting for anyone at the moment. What a curse has befallen us, fellow villagers. Oh, angst!

[Gurthang]

Well, so far we have three candidates on the ballot, and it appears that two of them are campaigning hard. Politicians... *shakeshead* fools!

Yet to speak:
Farael
Glirdan
Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime

Maybe I should vote for one of them, then they'd be more persuaded to speak up... (not likely)

Naria, calm thyself, or henceforth I shall viciously attack thy innocence.

Maybe we should vote TGWBS, he's probably pulling reverse psychiatry (I know that's not the right word) on us. 'No wolf would vote for himself!". Bah! I am unconvinced of that, but remain undecided.

[Gurthang]

Scratch Glirdan's name off that list... *cursescrossposting*

[Glirdan]

Yet to speak:
Farael
Glirdan
Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime(Gurth)

You may want to take me off that list as I have spoken already...twice in fact.

Maybe we should vote TGWBS, he's probably pulling reverse psychiatry (I know that's not the right word) on us. 'No wolf would vote for himself!". Bah! I am unconvinced of that, but remain undecided.(Gurth)

I'm inclined to say that we leave him alone for the time being. I believe that, as Garin said, he's trying to honour our dearly departed Prophet.

[Glirdan]

Scratch that, I cross osted with Gurthang.