Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Kath]

Right, let's see the voting so far (thanks whoever made this!)

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)

Wow, that's a quadruple tie situation! And if 10 have voted that leaves, erm, 10 left? Excuse my maths Oh well if that's right then there's plenty of time. However, I have to go soon and I would prefer not to leave it like this. Now I have skimmed the whole thread but only read properly up to post 205 so if there are discrepancies in what I say then that is why.

Eonwe and Naria have been extremely quiet, and what they have said has been both unhelpful and unreasoned. E.g. Eonwe's vote, which was purely random. Now that's acceptable on Day 1 but after all those posts toDay? He should have been able to form some suspicions.

Glirdan seemed to come under some fire due to his change in posting style, but everyone changes how they play every now and then and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Oh yes, Valier, I wondered if you could explain this so I understand it:

ok so I noticed that Thin you voted for Glirdan as well as I did because he's acting strange? Care to elaborate? As well Ang voted for him to save Garin. Thin your vote is suddenly looking strange...... You could be looking at me as suspisious to hide your own Fur..... Funny you suspect me AND Ang got killed last night....hhhhmmmmmmmm

Until I get that I have some suspicion over you for being plain confusing!

Eomer - well, the guy seems to want me dead which gives me a tendency to suspect him! But no, aside from that, while some posts are useful and logical and well thought out, some seem just . . . not. Someone said he was overly fierce but I don't see that, he just isn't consistently well reasoned. Still, that's hardly a crime so the benefit of the doubt will extend to him for toDay.

Farael - ah Farael. Apparently my partner in crime! Though he now suspects me himself. Apart from that flip flop I can see nothing in his posts to indicate anything wolvish.

Lhuna - now I can see the points against her. The refusal to stop a double lynch does look bad, and I'm hesitant to give her the benefit of the doubt over it. The constant apologies are a little grating it's true. I don't know though, while it looks suspicious I think it looks almost too suspicious. You'd think a wolf would realise what it looked like and concoct something to get themselves out of it. So, for toDay, I think I will consider Lhuna a misguided innocent.

Whilst writing this I was thinking about the Lovers. People have been suggesting that Nilp chose certain people to be them for amusement or some other reason and I think that's worth looking at. Unfortunately that leads me straight to spawn, who I wish to think of as entirely innocent for now, or it will throw the whole feel of this village out of whack for me! So I vaguely assumed for a moment that there was no female Lover (don't ask ) and concentrated on the male one. Now I come again to Eomer, doesn't that seem like a perfect partnership to you? But I've just said I consider him mostly innocent! My brain really hurts toDay.

So, as I don't want to leave this as a quadruple lynch

++EONWE

Because of that vote that had absolutely no reasoning and so really is unacceptable for Day 2. Also, there is a tendency to concentrate on the loud members of a village because of course there is more from them to analyse, but this does allow the quiet ones to slip under the radar quite often. I think it is a good idea to force some of these to talk.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm back.

Just please give me some time to re-read the scroll. It's long, but hey! I'm quite used to it. Timezones, y'know.

[Celuien]

Reviewed Glirdan and Farael. Neither really looks suspicious to me. Glirdan has shifted somewhat in style, but there's nothing to say that an innocent villager can't change strategy. Farael's a little flip-floppy, but otherwise acting pretty normally for ordo status. So I can't really suspect him right now either.

Which leads me to believe that the wolves are either in the quiet group or doing an excellent job of masquerading as innocent.

Updating the vote count:

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
11. Kath --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 3, Kath 1, Naria 2)

So Eonwe now leads. I'm not sure what to do. If I add a new candidate, it's probably a throw away vote. And quite truthfully, there's no one that I really suspect right now.

I can stay fairly late, so I'll probably continue to lurk as close to the deadline as possible, deliberating and trying to prevent double lynch mischief.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I'm not sure what to do. If I add a new candidate, it's probably a throw away vote. And quite truthfully, there's no one that I really suspect right now.

That pretty much sums up my feelings right now. Well, not quite. I do suspect people, in fact, a lot of people. But I think we all suspect just about everyone... it's a matter of who one suspects most.

Well, I'm still suspicious of Eomer (and to a lesser extent, Lhuna). But I keep coming back to TGWBS, even though most of the villagers seem to have accepted his innocence. Of course I know that his behavior has been in character; in fact, it's been terrifically so. Which would be a perfect cover for a werewolf. Yesterday he was almost lynched; today he has faded from suspicion entirely.

I, too, can stay relatively late, so I'll hang around and see if I (or anyone else) come up with anything else.

[Caranlondien]

I'm beginning to worry that my suspicions of Eomer and TGWBS are just because I think they'd be the most frightening werewolves.

Ugh, I'll go back and re-read some more...

[Caranlondien]

I think I made a mistake in my post about Lhuna:

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

As someone pointed out, she also knew that at least one other person was around and might take care of the situation.

The person I was thinking of actually wrote that Formendacil knew others were around and could break the tie. I can't remember if someone said the same about Lhuna; my mistake. But I still don't suspect her all that strongly.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Well, I'm still suspicious of Eomer (and to a lesser extent, Lhuna). But I keep coming back to TGWBS, even though most of the villagers seem to have accepted his innocence. Of course I know that his behavior has been in character; in fact, it's been terrifically so. Which would be a perfect cover for a werewolf. Yesterday he was almost lynched; today he has faded from suspicion entirely.

I know. But I remember a tale of the Great Prophet's predecessors, all of whom invariably used the same method that TGWBS has now adopted in honor of our late, great leader. Those predecessors tended to be innocent, if insane.

It's true everyone could be a wolf. It's also true that no one really looks like a wolf to me now. Which naturally means that we're all wolves since we all look alike and some of the village is lupine.

Paranoia is setting in. I'd better make myself a nice cup of tea and sit down with my handy dandy Guide to Psychoanalysis.

[Celuien]

I wonder. Samwise is starting to look odd with all the questions about the lovers. Almost as if asking for advice?

Then the business about being mad at lmp for mentioning the obvious that the wolf/lover could have told the ordo/sweetie about the identities of the other wolves. Annoyed at giving away a strategy being used by the lovers?

Rambling on here...

[littlemanpoet]

You have been triple posting partly because I've been busy analyzing and preparing one post. Here goes.

One of the best werewolf strategies is to say as much that is true as you can, so that the few lies you must tell slip by. However, some basically honest people can't help themselves, and when they play werewolf, they confess more than they mean to. Cases in point (in my estimation):

#139:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer; thank the Mod God he isn't.

Remove the flowery adjectives from this and you have: "I was afraid that Anguirel might have been Seer" .... and now Ang is dead. This does not look good for Lhuna.


#140:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

If an innocent ord spots what he thinks is suspicious pairwork, is it a good idea to bring this up publicly? Might this not alert the wolves to the identity of the Seer pair?"

- asking questions to poll the village, although the second is rhetorical. Seeing that Lal is so intelligent compared to a certain trio of males, why ask? You should know. These questions seem like they help the werewolves more than the villagers.

#140:

Originally Posted by Lal

Also, I am bearing in mind that wolves can now PM each other during the day as well as the night. I think a discussion on how this could change wolf tactics might be useful, what do the rest of you think?

There she goes again, polling the village. Wolvish.

#147:

Originally Posted by Lal

I personally don't think any accusations about pairwork, however well-founded, should be made while both Seers remain alive.

Then why have brought it up yourself 7 posts prior?

#154:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

we wanted to save Garin

- we who? It doesn't make sense no matter which way you cut it, as tar said.

#172:

Originally Posted by Cailin

Lhuna has been under a bit of suspicion because of her 'noble' vote. I usually suspect wolves to vote early on Day 1 to avoid getting caught up in tallying scores and giving innocents the final blow. I'm not really sure how I feel about Lhuna, and she seems different somehow. However, she was recently a first Day lynchee, if we're going to bring up other legendary werewolf stories anyway, which might explain her being a bit more careful.

After all the werewolf games she's played, suddenly she's careful. I can think of only two reasons for it: she's either a werewolf or a seer.

#203:

Originally Posted by Formy

Personally, I'm hesitant to accuse anyone based on the time of their vote. Lhuna, for example, has been suspected of wolvery in every game she's played (albeit incorrectly each time), but because of the timezones, she's typically an early voter. In this game, because of advantageous timezones, she's naturally going to be voting near the end.

Let me remind you all of what I shall call the SaucySyndrome. If it looks like an egg and feels like an egg and smells like an egg and tastes like an egg, it's probably an egg.

#215:

Originally Posted by Cailin

Anyone else in favour of lynching another guy tonight? Rid the wolves of the male population and increase our chances of finding the Lover soon?

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

Cailin keeps defending Lhuna. Either she is guileless or desperately trying to keep her fellow werewolf from the gallows. Somehow guileless and Cailin don't seem to fit well in the same sentence.

#216:

Originally Posted by Formy

The interesting thought occured to me that the three main candidates up for lynching last night were male: Garin, Glirdan, & TGWBS. Is it possible, that in the flurry of tying/tie-breaking votes there at the end that one of our female players was trying to save- or did save- her lover?

- worth keeping in mind. Not sure what to do with it otherwise.

Eonwe is pulling a Gil-galad. Plain as that. A possible vote getter from me.

I agree with Eomer that Gurthang does not seem suspicious. I'm not too sure about his suspicions of Farael & Kath.

It looks to me as if three villagers have been sort of looking out for each other: Lhuna-Cai-Lal - defending each other, excusing each other, coming up with reasons why the other probably isn't a werewolf. I am suspicious of all three, mostly of Lhuna, secondly of Cai, and the least of Lal, but still all three. Possible vote getters from me, any of the three.

Addendum: Celuien makes a good point about Samwise polling the village.

So my suspect list, from which I will pick my vote, has five names: Lhuna, Cai, Lal, Eonwe, & Samwise.

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna the Dark Elf's "Hmm..." List:

Disclaimer: You may disagree with some points or think that the list is insufficient, but these jump out at the author the most.

1. Eonwe.

His voting yesterDay was disturbing - he seemed all too eager to start a bandwagon for an innocent. And it wasn't even adequately explained.

ToDay's vote was even worse. He also sort of promised to be back, but he only did so to vote.

It's so, so wolvish that one is inclined to think that he's just an apathetic villager. Well, I'm sure we all know how bold wolves can be. And if ever he's not, I think we're better off without him if all he'll be doing is vote randomly every single time. Most possible recipient of my vote for toDay.

2. dancing spawn (Oh look, she's retaliating! She must be a guilty wolf!)

I just find it interesting that now you have voted for me because I did nothing about the double-lynch, when just yesterDay you agreed with me like this:

Lhuna, you speak sense. I agree with your last post there, and I don't know whom to vote...

Then you voted for Eonwe. That part makes sense, but what gets to me is that it seemed like you waited for someone else to break the tie as well, not wanting to have anything to do with it. Which is how I felt yesterDay. Doesn't it speak against you that you vote for a person for something you yourself seemed to have done?

But you've been very helpful (albeit a bit misguided, if I must say) so far, as you always have, and you would be a grievous loss to the village if innocent. Unfortunately, the opposite goes if you're a wolf.

3. Naria

Just because she's too quiet for my taste. History tells us of a quiet villager named malkatoj who escaped scrutiny for a long time due to an RL-induced quietness, and she turned out to be lupine.

4. Glirdan.

He's jumpy, but as I said yesterDay, that's normal.

What's not is this:

A Lover trying to shift suspicion of he partner?? Hmm... I'm getting suspicious of Gurthang and Lhuna now.

It wasn't Gurthang who said this, but my big bro Formendacil.

This may seem petty, but in situations like these even negligible mistakes can be used to subtly sway the village.

That's all I have for now. And here's to hoping that I haven't forgotten the Molecular Orbital Theory or Arrhenius acids and bases in the process, for the sake of my Chemistry grades.

So, without further ado:

++EONWE