WWJ VI: Return to Midsomer Mawlin - Kill me again

[Diamond18]

I just got done with a long day of work, filled with screaming babies and scary people with unwashed hair, so I’m currently too tired to think straight. But, as it’s Night and there’s nothing else to do, I’ll try to write some kind of comprehensive post for as soon as Day starts again. (Note, when this is actually posted I will not have just got home from work, most likely I’ll just have gotten up. As I type it’s Saturday evening.)

So.... people I’m most suspicious of:

Firefoot
Oddwen
Azaelia

People I’m less suspicious of:

Kitanna
Mormegil
JennyHallu
Nogrod
Gil-Galad


People I’m hardly suspicious of at all:

Hahaha, funny, that.

People of whose pure driven snowy white innocence I’m assured:

Myself.

Duh.

Sleepy Ranger
Boromir88

RIP, guys.

So, let’s review the list, shall we?

Firefoot

So, right, we’ve been told not to read too much into what Fea said/did -- but look at Kuru. Prior to Boro’s revelation I was NOT intending to vote for Kuru, because the only really suspicious thing I saw about him (more than your garden variety everybody-here-is-suspicious suspicion) was Fea’s behavior toward him, and I was going with the “Pay no mind to Fea, she’s crazy” stuff. Seems that Kuru-Wolf was most vocal in that regard, eh? So considering Fea’s encouragement to leave Firefoot be.... I’m not at all comfortable letting Firefoot be. Maybe Firefoot’s innocent, maybe she’s a wolf, but right now I’m more comfortable with the idea of finding out by “lynching” her rather than... not knowing.

(SUNDAY EDIT: Note also that Firefoot was online and posted in Survivor a mere couple of hours before Boro's death was announced. Coincedence?)

Oddwen and Azaelia, on the other hand, I just can’t get a good grasp on and since “We fear what we do not know,” I’m leery of them. It could be nothing more than RL keeping their posting fairly quiet, but still that gives me less to go on.

Kitanna

Frankly, as I’m mainly suspicious of Firefoot right now, my feelings of suspicion for Kitanna may stem from the fact that she’s relatively quite within the game and I don’t know her very well outside the game. So all “How does Kitanna behave in such and such situation?” questions come up with a big fat, “uuuuuuh, I don’t know” as an answer. Therefore, Kitanna rings a big fat , “uuuuuuh, I don’t know” on my Suspicion Bell.

Mormegil

Fea fingered him for a Seer. Seems her vote for him was far less cheeky than her vote for Kuru, therefore seems she was more serious about trying to get him killed. If Fea wanted him dead, I’m inclined to think him innocent.

JennyHallu

I was getting really suspicious of Jenny for mostly niggling reasons, flags that might be signals of a wolf playing a sloppy game, and that feeling increased when she said she was very suspicious of me... I got scared and felt like she was a wolf going after me. However, since knowing Kuru’s guilt, I find it hard to believe Jenny’s a wolf, so I’m chalking up her suspicious behavior to personality, and not actual wolfishness.

Nogrod

Seems, as someone put it, genuine. He posts a lot and seems into the game with an innocent sort of enthusiasm, so he’s about as far down on my suspicion list as one can get. Am I 100%? Never.

Gil-Galad

Here’s an interesting wrinkle, Gil said he’d be gone till Sunday evening. This is problematic if he’s a wolf, because, well, he should be contacting Mith about who to kill before then. So, either Gil’s not a wolf, or he’s a wolf and he figured Kuru would take care of tonight’s kill, or he’s a wolf and he’s NOT gone, he just wants us to think so and the only action he’s taking is to secretly PM Mithalwen with his victim. Personally, I’m thinking it’s as simple as him just not being a wolf, though it’s entirely within the realm of possibility that he is.

Me

Well, I have been called wishy-washy, quiet, all over the place, defensive, etc. I guess I am wishy-washy, can’t deny that. But that’s because I’m not a Seer and I’m not a Wolf, so wishy-washy and all over the place is all I can be -- one feels that way when one is so completely in the dark. Maybe more experience leads to more assurance, but... then again I’m a Libra, so somehow I find that rather doubtful. I didn’t think of myself as being defensive toward Boro, and it wasn’t my intent to turn the tables on him, I was just posting on what little there was to post on at the time -- I mean I was suspicious, but no more than of anyone else. I was defensive toward Jenny, because, like I said, I thought her wolfish at the time and she scared me with her assessment. As for quiet... well, I’m here and I post when I’m here. When I’m gone, either asleep or at work or otherwise busy with eating/personal hygiene, I don’t post. Naturally.

Sleepy Ranger

Dead, poor guy.

Boro

Probably dead by the time this gets posted. Martyred be the Lone Wolf. Rather a romantic way to go, all things considered.

Anyhow, I didn’t bother with play by play’s of people’s posts, because, well, it’s already been done at this point.

I’m voting Firefoot today, unless anyone can convince me why it would be a really stupendously good idea to vote for someone else.

[Firefoot]

You can lynch me if you want on those other grounds, but this?

(SUNDAY EDIT: Note also that Firefoot was online and posted in Survivor a mere couple of hours before Boro's death was announced. Coincedence?)

I'm sorry, but this is absurd. Anyone who knows me knows that I'm on quite a bit, especially on weekends. I would bet that most of you have been on sometime in the past 24 hours. I guess that means we're all wolves, right? That is quite possibly the most shoddy evidence I have ever heard for wolvishness.

So, right, we’ve been told not to read too much into what Fea said/did

I've already addressed this point two or three times. Heck, I have even looked into Fea's posts to see what I could find there.

[Nogrod]

Do you think there is anything of interest to us in Mith's last lynching post? That "second werewolf" -anagram surely wasn't one, neither the "California Vet may make a bloomer" (7, 6), if it meant only her comment on our game: so Boromir's (7) self-revealment was a bit hasty from her viewpoint?

But what could that (6) be, who could be misguided (Oddwen (6) to vote for Morm? - too obvious & substantial hinting)? Or the other crossword that Kuru had already solved: "Gave succour to assistant with first delivery" (5). I can only think of Jenny as five-letter name, and there is no sense in that - and should the answer be a name - and is there anything of interest in these anyhow?

As there have been many people suspecting Firefoot (whom I've inclined to trust) and Kitanna (of whom I have nothing in the way or the other), I'll be doing some homework with them, and be back in some hours.

Still: a wonderful start! If we are considerate enough, we might have three wolves in three nights (unhappily, I doubt it, but we can hope)! Would that be a WW-record of some kind?

[Diamond18]

Nogrod, I somehow doubt that Mithalwen is giving us hints in her posts. Unless this is something she did in her other game? Still, seems somewhat unfair for the mod to be dropping hints....

Firefoot, as for my "Sunday edit", I threw that up there at the last second -- you were already at the top of my suspects list so it's not as significant as all that. Surely not as significant as that Kuru also complained loudly about absurd arguments which turned out to be not-so-absurd-after-all-eh-wot? yesterday.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

(SUNDAY EDIT: Note also that Firefoot was online and posted in Survivor a mere couple of hours before Boro's death was announced. Coincedence?)

Your other reasons against Firefoot have some merit, but come on now, picking on her for a post she made hours before Boromir's death is just a shot below the waist. I'm sure most of us made posts on one thread or another during the night so that shouldn't have any bearing in what we're trying to do here.

Do you think there is anything of interest to us in Mith's last lynching post? That "second werewolf" -anagram surely wasn't one, neither the "California Vet may make a bloomer" (7, 6), if it meant only her comment on our game: so Boromir's (7) self-revealment was a bit hasty from her viewpoint?

It may have something to do with Kuru's role and nothing more.
Be back in a bit with some thoughts.

[JennyHallu]

Hey, guys, checking in. I still think the analysis of Fea's and Kuru's posts that I did the other day could be useful.

I also think that looking at the voting record, (more importantly the timing of the voting record) could really help us in at least crossing some people off the list of suspects. However, I'm busy playing a game with my husband right now and will be mostly lurking for a while.

[Nogrod]

Well. I’ve been reading through all Kitanna’s and Firefoot’s posts now, in the light of both Fea’s first day analysis and Boro’s “testament”, and trying to fit them to what we know now – and what we don’t.

My inclination is to say, that they are both innocent villagers, but with Firefoot I’m more confident about it. The big difference between them is, that Firefoot seems to be logical and straightforward all the time, whereas Kitanna could be seen as really a wolfish one at the beginning, but then turning her ways totally to become a genuinely unsuspected one: that beginning can of course be explained by the “first day”, and that’s indeed the reason, why I’m leaning more towards her innocence.

And before you read forwards, please take note of the following (I don’t want to be accused as a bloodthirsty-one again...): I have have read their posts as kind of a Devil’s advocate, looking at them basically as wolves. So this is hypothethical, not substantial, with either of them...

But see for yourselves:

Case Kitanna:

#12
Anywho, I see Fea is abusing the retractable votes deal early on. Why am I not surprised?

Teaming with the other wolves with idle, but positive chatting?

#34
His first three points can be seen as reasonable, but his fourth point is more of an attack on anyone who can't get on often. Despite his overeagerness to get the silent ones I'd hesitate voting for him (at this point at least). I feel this move on his part is too wreckless for a wolf. But still Nogrod has raised a few warning flags, yet, for me it is too early to make a desicion that can comdemn him.

Defending my reasons, but still attacking me. That's the wolf's way: keep the suspicions up for the overall suspected villagers on, but detach yourself from them a bit.

#59
Now Morm is a shifty one, but I'd say between Nogrod and Morm, Nogrod is the more susipcious. But I've been toying with the idea that those two are in cahoots. It seems a wreckless move on DAY one for a team of wolves to attack each other like these two appear to be doing, but it is not utside the realm of possibilty. That's just a loose theory and not something to act on today.

From a wolf's point of view, just a perfect match: theory of two innocents having a very daring wolf-to-wolf alliance! A smart wolf could try this kind of a thing? We are at the early hours of the game still by this post...

Next is Gil for his short and unhelpful posts. While getting him on day one seems like a good idea even if he is innocent we run the risk of killing a gifted innocent. Gil probably won't change his gaming style regardless of his role, so I prefer to hold out a day before casting down a vote for him.

A wolf would defend a "known-to do-nothing-at-all" -villager in the first day, as to not lose a very good asset later on.

Fea is Fea. I have neutral feelings toward her. Nothing to condemn her or to save her.

Note the neutrality!

++Kuru
He's a dangerous enemy and I'm actually afraid of him (and Boromir and Morm for that matter). But for the most part this is random.

A safe vote for a wolf? And laying suspicion over Boro & Morm at the same time?

2nd day, Fea dead.

#117
Jenny seems to be pretty petty (and she said so herself in her first post today). She voted for Gil and then retracted it and changed it to Nogrod because "Nogrod's tone in his post against you, morm, annoyed me greatly." That sort of jumped out at me. Is she trying to defend Morm? Trying to hop on an innocent's back?

Jumping to quite quick conclusions here? Forming another wolf&wolf conspiracy with Morm in it (now Morm & Jenny)?

Boromir and Kuru seem to have engaged themselves in a battle early on today. As well as Jenny following Boromir's lead and accusing Kuru. Given Fea's history in these games and her early "joke" vote for Kuru Boromir's first post makes a good point. But there's plenty of room for doubt.

Admitting the suspicions of Boromir (wise for a wolf...). But read the next:

I am more inclined to see Kuru as a wolf, but there's enough doubt for me to hold out on voting for him. The day is still relatively young and I don't want to jump to any conclusions yet.

How could one see this, without some specific knowledge? Securing oneself as seeing Kuru being a goner?

Now there's Boromir. He seems awfully sure of himself. It's quite unnerving, but if he's right and Kuru is a wolf then we owe him a great deal of thanks. If he's wrong he's damned himself. But bear in mind even if he's wrong there's still a chance he was a misguided innocent.

Quite unnerving, for a wolf at least! Is this a slip of some real thoughts? BUt then there starts the "defence" of Kitanna.... Her reminder of the possibility of B being a misguided innocent, seems to speak for her innocence?

#121
Thank you, Diamond, for providing me with Jenny's Fea defense. She made the post minutes before voting closed. I find it hard to believe Jenny really thought Fea wasn't going to get the noose and it's just too sloppy of a move for a wolf to make. If Jenny knew when day was going to end I don't think she would have made such a statement unless she really thought Fea was innocent.

Really innocent looking & emphatic post. Seemingly really understanding Jenny's reactions. WIth really devilish eyes, you might read this as a trial of a wolf to help a controversial villager to make still another day...

#132
I trust Boromir, if he were a wolf I don't think he'd be so bold.

What else could you do? A wolf or a villager alike would make this statement...

Sorry: this seems to be quite a job. I'll send this one now, and be posting the Firefoot-part within a short while.

[mormegil]

Sadly I have been unable to read to much on this yet, but I would ask Oddwen to explain her vote for me. I dont' mind being voted for but I wonder why she would vote for me yesterday when we knew whom a wolf was.

[Nogrod]

So, to Firefoot then.

EDIT: And before you read forwards, please take note of the following (I don’t want to be accused as a bloodthirsty-one again...): I have have read their posts as kind of a Devil’s advocate, looking at them basically as wolves. So this is hypothethical, not substantial, with either of them...

#28
You say that Nogrod's too eager to lynch the quiet ones, but some of you seem extremely eager to lynch Nogrod... on the other hand, I'm not sure a wolf would be that forward.

Quite a reasonable defending of my position, but a clever wolf would do this - keeping the controversial villager alive to be lynched...

#41
B88 did contradict himself on the point of morm, as morm pointed out. He seems fairly eager to get some control in this game, but it seems like I remember that being fairly normal for him. Possibly a vote here, although I am reluctant at this early stage to vote out one of the most substantially-posting players.

Not wishing to lynch the substantial posters - wise villager-like - or then very cunning wolf-like.

Diamond went pretty far into a defense of herself because of the accusation based on her name. I'm not sure it means anything, but I have noticed that newcomer wolves are sometimes overly defensive. I'm not sure this applies here since she sounded fairly even-minded through all of it.

The way a wolf would act like: have a suspicion, and then draw yourself away from it.

++Gil-Galad
About as random as anything, I guess, and with nothing else to go on on the first day, the least helpful players can go first...

A wolf voting a silent villager! Either a very stupid (not likely in this case) or a very clever one. Firefoots early voting hours distract here, to not to take too much conclusions about them (she couldn't know, what was coming after her vote)

I don't understand this logic. Not saying anything about Nogrod's innocence or guilt, I think this is quite shaky grounds to clear him on. If he was a wolf, of course he would change his vote to Fea. I realize that you account for this, but you don't give any other reasons that I saw for marking him as innocent. Care to explain, or point me back to someplace that I missed?

She clearly notices Boro's lack of logic here: but then again, as long as I could be suspected, a wise wolf would do this: keeping up suspicions over me...

Also, I advise against trying to decipher too much out of Fea's posts about who might be innocent or guilty. Fea is insane and will have gone out of her way to confuse us all (she probably would have done that were she innocent as well). There is no way of telling how much of that she was being honest in.

The classic! And I truly see that Firefoot has been right and the accusers (Boromir, the seer, included) wrong in this matter. She did not say, that we should not look at what Fea said, but only that we should not read too much to them. But her wording about Fea's "insanity" surely bother a bit... Anyhow: she didn't call Fea "erratic and spontaneous", as some stories here seem to suggest. She just called her insane

Without much analysis, Boromir is starting to look suspicious to me.

I agreed at this point with this uneasiness as a villager, but a wise wolf would start to have ideas about Boro's seership... nb. "without much analysis" - quite unlike Firefoot in general.

#149
I would ask that you not simply go after me because Boromir suspects me; other than his dreams he is no more knowledgeable than the rest of us.

A good point we all should remember - but of course a running wolf would really like to stress this.

[Firefoot]

I've been doing a lot of thinking and perusing, but unfortunately no one is jumping out at me yet. Right now our numbers are both helping us and hurting us - helping because the more of us there are, the more time we have, but hurting because our odds for catching a wolf are not exactly good. A wolf is going to have a fairly easy time hiding here. What I'm going to try and do is build up a case for several of the villagers (depending on how long each one takes), and see what I have then.

And thank you to those of you who have given me a vote of confidence.

Cross-posting with Nogrod.

[JennyHallu]

Nogrod, I appreciate your analysis. Firefoot does look pretty good in light of your presentation, and I never really ever suspected Firefoot to begin with.

Kitanna, however, I'm less sure about.

The first quote you posted set me to thinking. "I see Fea is abusing the retractable votes"...

Maybe I'm seeing things where nothing exists, but that implies she knew already Fea had no intention of sticking with a vote for Kuruharan. Fea's perfectly capable of sticking with a random vote, wasn't she?

[Nogrod]

Well, my list of probably innocents stands now:

Firefoot
Mormegil
(and I hope this is not just wishful thinking...)

Then maybe:
Jenny
Gil = what a waste!

And you others: sorry, I just haven't had time enough to fall in to your posting with real care! But just hunches, in the order of least suspicious:

Azaelia: should read you more, at first I suspected, then not, now again, not sure...
Diamond: don't know, some wolfishness, then not. I really don't know, inclined to believe her innocent
Kitanna: it was very easy to see you as a wolf, but then it was just looking at the posts from a certain angle (could be done to anyone of us here, I think?)
Oddwen: Your Morm vote is really odd, and cries for explanation! But if Morm turns out to be a wolf, you're going to be our hero!

Just a couple of points from Fea's analysis before my time to go to sleep.

She seems to "defend" Firefoot

Firefoot is, whether on your side or not, good to have around. Her posts, especially as the game goes on, are full of substance, logical, insightful. If she's a wolf, we'll kill her later, but whether she is or not, her detail-oriented posts are helpful.

but that is reasonable talk. And I don't think all the wolves go unreasonable, just because they are wolves... They should indeed sound reasonable at some places?

Then, you see, she's not defending Kuruharan:

When he does talk, it's usually at length, but here, he's lying low. Perhaps trying to revamp his reputation? I'm willing to bandwagon him for a very good reason. But I'm probably just biased and resentful about my last experience with him as Wolf-Kuru.

It's not impossible, that a wolf would take a different stance on her companions - it would be wise indeed, but...

But what's really unnerving, is her talk about Kitanna:

I can't make up my mind whether I trust or distrust her. Basically, in my mind, if I think you're guilty, I don't worry, and if I think you're innocent, I dont' worry. I've got you placed. It's when I'm unsure that I look closer. I'm unsure of Kitanna.

This is some weird stuff! Could really be a wolf addressing another with some jesting and then leaving it innocent-looking enough?

Her only open suspicion was on Morm, whom she voted also...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I've been doing a lot of thinking and perusing, but unfortunately no one is jumping out at me yet. Right now our numbers are both helping us and hurting us - helping because the more of us there are, the more time we have, but hurting because our odds for catching a wolf are not exactly good. A wolf is going to have a fairly easy time hiding here.

Well, I agree, that this is our dilemma now!

After the best possible start we find ourselves in the direst of problem: too many to suspect, too many chances to kill innocents. And one wolf hides much more easily than two... I would like us to get the wolf done away with, by as few innocent deaths as possible. That's a kind of measure for success. So let's keep our minds calm and think carefully - and hope that Gil-kind of guys do not be the ones to turn the tide on voting...

I will be here quite erratically today (gametime) as I have too much work to do, but I'll try to read everything, bit by bit during some pauses, and to come up with a grounded vote before the voting time ends.