WWJ VI: Return to Midsomer Mawlin - Kill me again

[Nogrod]

Well, my list of probably innocents stands now:

Firefoot
Mormegil
(and I hope this is not just wishful thinking...)

Then maybe:
Jenny
Gil = what a waste!

And you others: sorry, I just haven't had time enough to fall in to your posting with real care! But just hunches, in the order of least suspicious:

Azaelia: should read you more, at first I suspected, then not, now again, not sure...
Diamond: don't know, some wolfishness, then not. I really don't know, inclined to believe her innocent
Kitanna: it was very easy to see you as a wolf, but then it was just looking at the posts from a certain angle (could be done to anyone of us here, I think?)
Oddwen: Your Morm vote is really odd, and cries for explanation! But if Morm turns out to be a wolf, you're going to be our hero!

Just a couple of points from Fea's analysis before my time to go to sleep.

She seems to "defend" Firefoot

Firefoot is, whether on your side or not, good to have around. Her posts, especially as the game goes on, are full of substance, logical, insightful. If she's a wolf, we'll kill her later, but whether she is or not, her detail-oriented posts are helpful.

but that is reasonable talk. And I don't think all the wolves go unreasonable, just because they are wolves... They should indeed sound reasonable at some places?

Then, you see, she's not defending Kuruharan:

When he does talk, it's usually at length, but here, he's lying low. Perhaps trying to revamp his reputation? I'm willing to bandwagon him for a very good reason. But I'm probably just biased and resentful about my last experience with him as Wolf-Kuru.

It's not impossible, that a wolf would take a different stance on her companions - it would be wise indeed, but...

But what's really unnerving, is her talk about Kitanna:

I can't make up my mind whether I trust or distrust her. Basically, in my mind, if I think you're guilty, I don't worry, and if I think you're innocent, I dont' worry. I've got you placed. It's when I'm unsure that I look closer. I'm unsure of Kitanna.

This is some weird stuff! Could really be a wolf addressing another with some jesting and then leaving it innocent-looking enough?

Her only open suspicion was on Morm, whom she voted also...

[Firefoot]

First choice for a case was Diamond.

Her initial post can be read equally well as an innocent or wolf; however, given what we have seen so far from the wolves’ playing styles, it is entirely possible that she is a wolf. She sort of hints at it in a “well, I could be a wolf” sort of way – something we have already seen. She also states that she would be a good choice for the wolves during the night.

Post 36:

Everyone seems equal parts suspicious and innocent.

A wolf’s neutrality or an innocent’s unsureness?

I am paralyzed with the fear that whatever I do will cast suspicion.

Because she’s a wolf?

Post 63:

Her vote for Nogrod was, I think, genuinely in haste and would have been safe for her whether she is guilty or innocent.

Post 91

She seems extremely concerned that she may have ticked off Nogrod. In addition to this, she frequently repeats the idea that she could be killed by wolves if he is a wolf.

She sort of goes back and forth on Jenny in a non-committal sort of way.

Here’s something interesting. She never actually lists Fea in her analysis, but clumps her in with Kuru. She comments that some of their activities were suspicious, but never draws any real conclusions about them – rather, we have a “I don’t know why I’m even trying to figure this out” sort of comment. Hm…

She doesn’t seem to draw any conclusions about anyone else, although lots of people are “interesting.” Another Hm…

Post 104

She says that she is inclined to think that Fea’s jumping on Kuru was a wolf going for an innocent – trying to protect her fellow wolf?

Post 110

She agrees with my point about not putting too much thought into words. I could see this at face value or as a wolf taking others’ words to cast their weight onto suspicions.

Post 114

This post definitely seems to speak for Diamond’s innocence. It seems more genuine than her other posts and is more difficult to read as a wolf’s posting.

Post 130

This is where she lists the possibilities for Boro’s seer claim. Could this be some kind of attempt to protect her fellow wolf by getting people to suspect Boro?

Post 134

She does vote for Kuru, perhaps seeing the hopelessness of the other options. If she’s a wolf, I don’t see how she would have much of a chance if she had done otherwise.

Post 146

All of a sudden she decides that Jenny, whom she had been suspicious of for a while, is probably innocent, and I, whom she had been trusting, is probably guilty. Granted, she did have some more information to go off of, but she does not provide a lot of reasoning for this except that she has looked at Fea’s and Kuru’s posts. This complete switch does strike me as slightly odd. She also indicates her thinking that Nogrod is probably innocent, but this doesn’t seriously contradict anything she had previously said.

Post 148

Now she’s allowing for the possibility of Nogrod’s wolvishness again.

Post 162

What really caught my eye was that in her accusation of me she seems to have paid no mind to defenses I had posted to those same points. The rest of her analysis does seem straightforward and reasonable, however if she were a wolf, of course it would be because she would know all of those people are actually innocent.

Post 165

While she says that her Sunday Edit was mostly last minute, she still does sort of cling to it and my reaction. This is seeming rather desperate.

Final reaction: Diamond has certainly moved up on my suspicion list. Although I did this primarily in the Devil’s Advocate state of mind, some of these arguments are really beginning to make some sense. I won’t vote for her until I’ve looked closer at some other people, though. Especially Kitanna - other people's arguments are making some sense, so I would like to have a look for myself.

[Diamond18]

A lot of new posts since I last checked -- lot to read up on. But I'll address this one first:

Here’s something interesting. She never actually lists Fea in her analysis,

That's because Fea was dead when I wrote it.

What really caught my eye was that in her accusation of me she seems to have paid no mind to defenses I had posted to those same points.

I was keeping in mind that a wolf would of course defend herself, so tell-tale posts by others have a more concrete standing in my mind. For instance, Kuru-wolf seemed to be rather insulted that Boro was using Fea's post to finger him, and defended himself quite logically. In the end, Kuru was a wolf. Could be the same thing happening here? You defend yourself reasonably, but so did he. I believed him until Boro said "I'm the seer you idiots!" (to paraphrase ) so I am quite leery of trusting anyone's self-defenses again. Which, of course, if I were not me, includes my own.

While she says that her Sunday Edit was mostly last minute, she still does sort of cling to it and my reaction. This is seeming rather desperate.

While I was thinking the same thing about your post... I just thought you seemed to latch onto that one observation (which I allowed to be coincedence) in my whole post in a rather upset fashion. Everyone here is a big kid with a mind of their own, so I don't think you have to worry so much about everyone saying, "Gee, Diamond, you're right, that's conclusive!" Ergo, when you call me out on it right away, I have to naturally wonder; is it just knee-jerk innocent defensiveness? (which it could be) Or is it a wolf looking for one thing to harp on as "absurd" so that everyone says, "You're right, Firefoot, Diamond is clearly desperate and illogical!"?

Especially Kitanna - other people's arguments are making some sense, so I would like to have a look for myself.

Kitanna is high on my list as well... basically from being unable to come to any conclusion about her. We could be sharing a mindset here... or you could, wolfishly, have sniffed out a weak member. You could be raising other people's suspicions about me and trying to direct my suspicions onto Kitanna. My lack of decisiveness about Kitanna might allow me to be easily led where she is concerned. It would certainly be a smart thing to do, were you a wolf.

Which reminds me:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Your other reasons against Firefoot have some merit, but come on now, picking on her for a post she made hours before Boromir's death is just a shot below the waist. I'm sure most of us made posts on one thread or another during the night so that shouldn't have any bearing in what we're trying to do here.

"Picking on her"? "Shot below the waist"? What is this, kindergarten? I'm just taking everything into account, from the vaguely suspicious to the definitely suspicious. I simply noted that Firefoot and Mithalwen's posts were back to back within this forum (which they were before I posted and bumped this thread to the top of the page) which could, possibly, indicate that Mithalwen was waiting on Firefoot to be able to make her post. Mithalwen's haste certainly does indicate that she was waiting on someone and didn't get a chance to write her post until she had little time left to do so.

Am I saything this conclusively declares Firefoot guilty? No. This could mean absolutely nothing. 99% of what we discuss about each other could mean absolutely nothing. But for some reason, my observartion was "a shot below the waist". Okay. This rather reminds me of the lynch-mob surrounding Nogrod on the first day, when the number 1 reason for killing him was because he was being "mean" to the quieter players.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(re: my #91 post) ... I might agree with Firefoot on this. It seems very odd analysis indeed... (she didn't use any of that much space to total foolishness in the beginning of the analysis on anyone else but Kuru.... to hide the lack of substance that is of course demanding when you are a wolf describing another one?)

This is easy to explain. Kuru and I are friends on the board outside this game. We've been friends for a while, originating in our shared participation in the Revenge/Reunification of the Entish Bow RPGs. I also invited him to play this game, via PM, when sign-up was slow and we needed more numbers among us to begin. Ergo, my initial outlook on Kuru was friendly, though I knew he could be a wolf, as could everyone.

I would ask that you not read too much into this fact, because my friendship with Kuru outside of the game is completely unrelated to the roles Mithalwen gave us inside the game.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I have just gotten in, and I am a bit worried because I will have to vote in an hour or so (as I will be in school tomorrow until well after the end of the day), and I have absoloutely nothing to go on. The wolf's move last night was completely predictable, and leaves a lot of room for speculation.

I am leaning toward Morm's and Norgod's innocence just because neither of them has recently done anything to make me suspicious of them (I consider first day antics to be well behind us now).

Which leaves only Firefoot on my list of suspects. She would be dangerous as a wolf--she's certainly clever and sneaky enough to elude us. However, on that note, I do not think it is fair to go around behind her back and look at posting times on other threads. This is why it's such a big deal that everyone, innocent or guilty, sets themselves as "invisible" in their options panel. I don't think that anything that goes on outside this thread should have any bearing at all on what goes on inside the game. I am often on at odd times, frequently during the Night, just because of my school schedule and timezone. I'm innocent...but should someone use that against me in an attempt to prove my guilt? One of the key elements of this game is that we don't know what goes on at night. That should apply to analyzing other threads for times of posts, too.

[JennyHallu]

I agree that activity during the Night is not at all a good measure of innocence or guilt. I'm online at all hours of both Days and Nights...

But, and especially after some of the excellent analyses that have been done today, I really don't think that Firefoot seems wolvish. Boro's suspicion was based on speculation, unlike his dreams of Fea and Kuru. They really don't carry any more weight, in my eyes, than any of the analyses we have done today.

Firefoot has been consistent and clear, and has come across as very helpful to this village.

There have been good points made about Diamond, but I'm willing to put some of her inconsistencies to the fact that she's new to the game. I think we should keep a close eye on her, but she is not my main suspect.

Kitanna also seems suspicious. So far, I think it is her that I will vote for at the end of the day.

Except for a nagging worry that we have 4 fairly quiet villagers here, and I really don't know what to think of them. Azaelia, you're one of them, but I'm not really as worried about you. You have been very upfront about your time limitations, and you have tried very hard to give clear and thorough reasoning behind each of your votes.

Gil-Galad is...well...Gil-Galad. But I'm inclined to believe he's innocent, due to the timing of his vote for Kuru. Granted, it's Gil, but I think a wolvish Gil wouldn't have voted for a fellow wolf there.

Oddwen has not really posted enough for me to feel comfortable classing her in any direction.

Morm has really surprised me with his quietness in this village. His posts have seemed substantive, but he has seemed content to mostly observe the village, and I don't think I've gotten a firm hold on his views on the rest of us.

That's all I've got right now, but I thought you might enjoy not being alone in the village

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I've been reviewing the thread but have not come up with much anything new at all, but now it is time for me to vote. I am sorry for the lack of real support behind this, but an early vote is rarely a good vote. I am more often than not wrong, so please kindly take this vote with a grain of salt. It's difficult for me to vote this early because there's hardly an inkling of a direction that people are going to take this Day so far. I actually have a feeling that votes are going to be pretty all over the place, I've heard so many names mentioned: Firefoot, Kitanna, Morm...Even my own has appeared on various lists.

However, I am going to go back on my previous post because I realized, while reading over my list made yesterDay, that one name sprang out at me.

++Oddwen

I realize this may seem out of the blue for many of you, but I am just completely bemused by her behavior. Voting for Firefoot just didn't feel right, so on further review, I remembered how confused I was by Oddwen's behavior yesterDay--By the time of her vote, Kuru's fate was sealed, and pretty much everyone was sure he was a wolf and that Boro was the seer (which turned out to be just that case). But then she comes in with a poorly-explained vote for Morm in post #152. She points out that Norgod might be innocent, using one of Fea's posts and logic to back that up, but then says that because of this Morm is suspicious, and moves on to vote for him. I don't know how to explain it but that entire post was one big red flag to me. Sure, Morm is dangerous if he's a wolf, but nothing he's done so far has seemed that suspicious to me.

So I chose Oddwen today, for better or for worse. I'm not really trying to get a bandwaggon rolling, or anything. I'm just bringing up another name that I think merits looking at. Please take into account, when disagreeing with me (it's bound to happen), that I write this at a disadvantage: I don't get to watch everyone else's behavior for the remainder of the day and choose that way. I just have to follow my (frequently-wrong) instincts. So yeah. Enough of this rambling, it's my bedtime, I've had a busy day, I'm tired, and I have a feeling that I'm getting less coherent. I have an early wake-up tomorrow to get to school. So supposing I'm not wolf bait tonight, I'll see you the next Day.

ETA: Jenny, thanks for the vote of confidence: Time constraints are hard, so I try to be thorough when I get the chance to log on.

[Gil-Galad]

i have returned but i am very tired so alas i must abstain my vote again this round till tomorrow if i am still alive, hopefully we get the wolf tonight

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Morm

I would ask Oddwen to explain her vote for me. I dont' mind being voted for but I wonder why she would vote for me yesterday when we knew whom a wolf was.

It was because I was assured of Kuruwolf's death, and I was thinking that we had an extra half-day to find the third wolf, and I was thinking that Morm was my most likely candidate...but gee, voting for him was a bit strange. *scratches head*

And as of yet, nothing from he.

*sigh* time's running out, more in the morning.