Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

Alas. Poor Eomer. He homed in on the guilty ones over the last two Days, with almost Seerish brilliance, and this sealed his fate.
But still, we (I mean the remaining innocents,) can take great cheer in yesterDay's events. I was hoping we’d get one, but two and a lover….what a result.

Now, onto analysis. (I wrote most of this yesterday because I have to go right away and won't be back until late toDay.)
Of course now so much becomes clear.
Once spawn’s death and Seer status is announced, Farael is very quick and early to jump in with his attempt to indict Kath. This means that any watching wolf could guess that Lhuna is the lupine with the lover. Anyone who voted for Lhuna yesterDay (yes, including me) is more suspicious than the Kath-voters.
What of TGWBS? On the one hand, Lhuna’s willingness to leave him in the lurch, lynchwise, on day one, speaks for his innocence. But his actions yesterDay don’t look good to me. With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men. Is he (as I think Farael, who knew the wolves, actually said!) lone male wolf among three females, and is this his way of proving to his lady friends that he is not a traitor?

One other point. The Day before yesterDay, we had three unlikely babes in the wood – LMP, Form and Samwise – all seemingly realising with shock that lovers would reveal things to each other. I wondered whether this wide-eyed innocence was a ploy by at least one of them – to the extent that I re-posted my surprise, in a deliberately barbed way, hoping to gauge the reaction it got.
Samwise cheerfully acknowledges the oversight – an innocent reaction. LMP reacts huffily. He also makes a rather clumsy attempt to construct a case against me, a case which is (later) partly rebutted by Gurthang. But Form does not respond to my barb at all. Maybe he, as a very grand player, thinks both I and my point are beneath notice, but still…he’d been worrying me anyway, and this doesn’t help at all.
Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?
A quick analysis of Kath-voters:
Cailin, post 330. Looks good, but could be a ruthless wolf jettisoning her tainted fellow-travellers. Celuien votes for Kath because it’s more useful, another tick. Gurthang’s lonely vigil, waiting to catch Lhuna, is most impressive of all…perhaps too impressive. But I am inclined to think him innocent. Samwise also feels innocent to me.
And all praise to the late Eomer (post 162 - spot on, sir - except with one obvious error, ahem, which he did later retract)

I am currently most uncomfortable with Form, TGWBS and LMP, in that order.

[the guy who be short]

Well, we see Farael's motives now. His entire case against Kath was full of holes, and I feel fully justified in voting for him...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men

Oh well. I knew people would try to use these deaths against me. Come, and I shall answer to you all...

[Cailín]

*weeps* Alas, alas, Eomer dead, and it is not even my fault. How terribly tragic and unfair.

Now why would Eomer be killed?

Mind you, he has been under some suspicion the past few Days and though he can be as much a threat as an ordinary, I am quite convinced they thought him the other Seer. That is great, because I am also almost certain he did that intentionally. He has mentioned the Seer often yesterDay - constantly seeming to bring it up while it was unnecessary - and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too). It is as close to a Ranger as we can get.

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

--

More after breakfast.

[tar-ancalime]

So far in this game, the too-obvious-to-be-true has been, well, true.

Anguirel's death really did point to Kath.

dancing spawn's death really did point to Lhuna.

Farael's attacks on Kath really were unfounded (or founded on insider knowledge, as opposed to the discourse of the game).

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

[tar-ancalime]

from Lhuna:

I can't die without causing some confusion, of course, can I?

Let's see. Right now I think either Cailin or Elempi is the last Seer. If Elempi is, well, I guess that explains a lot. If it's Cailin, great job of hiding it!

But according to my source, it could also possibly be Naria. Hmm, definitely something to consider.

Obviously she was lying through her teeth in this post; but could there be a grain of truth in here? Could she really be giving us a summary of the wolves' thoughts on who is the second Seer? Obviously they thought last Night that Eomer was the most likely candidate, but Lhuna couldn't very well come out with that while claiming to be Eomer's Beloved, now could she?

What do y'all think? Are the wolves going to have to change their strategy because Lhuna just spilled the beans?

Alternatively, did Lhuna just give us the identities of the remaining wolves?

Or, as is probably the case, was she just making things up for fun?

[the guy who be short]

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.

While I take nothing that you say at face value, I think you're right about Farael for certain. He knew who all the werewolves are, and may have let something slip in his desperate aggression against Kath.

[Cailín]

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

Agreed. Somehow, I can't believe we'd be that lucky thrice, but Glirdan definitely has been acting differently. Of course, Eomer was not the Seer, so it might all be a red herring. We can't ignore it either way and I shall be looking into Glirdan's posts as soon as possible. I generally got the impression from his previous posts that he was 'hiding' behind analysis, in other words, summing up dead people's posts.

Again, tar-ancalime, I think it is really no use to try and understand what Lhuna meant with her final posts. She intended to sow confusion and we'd be better off just ignoring her warped, twisted, wolvish statements. I think.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by me

and he and Spawn seemed allies before (likely Eomer was her first dream; he would definitely be my first dream, too).

Looking back, I am not sure where I saw that… Probably it was merely imaginary. Anyhow, that is not the point.

A few questions:

How about Glirdan? No known wolf did vote for him yet, neither Kath nor Lhuna ever attempted to portray him in a negative light… and why not, I wonder. Glirdan would have been an easy victim, considering the events of the past few days. This is indeed strange. I think he definitely belongs on any suspect lists.

TGWBS… I trust him and yet I do not. He absolutely refused to believe the Seers had dreamt of a wolf (we still cannot be sure, but I think it is now extremely probable Lhuna was indeed the second dream) and his Plan was far from flawless. On the one hand, I think a wolf would not be so stupid. On the other hand, I don't think TGWBS would be so stupid. But we all make mistakes and at least TGWBS stuck to his own convictions.

I am a bit suspicious of Lalaith. Could Lhuny's vote have been wolf-on-wolf? She did not pursue her suspicions further the next Day, aside from mentioning them in her first post.

By the way, that vote for Lalaith looks good for TGWBS. It seems likely that Lhuna was trying to align herself with an innocent by defending him, rather than already defending a fellow wolf. As the Lover-wolf, she'd certainly not be inclined to do that.

I have too little time and actually don't really feel like doing a proper analysis of our departed wolves posts. I advise everyone to look for themselves anyway, rather than rely on summaries.

[Thinlómien]

Wow. I honestly didn't believe Kath to be a wolf. But evidently she was. And we caught the lovers. I hope I don't sound heartless, if I say I'm not very sad at the moment (though Eomer the Innocent is dead). I'm rather happy that we caught two wolves and the lovers in one day. That was great.

Anyway, TGWBS looks a bit bad now - at least to me. He continuosly tried to distract people from analysing Kath and Lhuna by babbling about his double-lynch theory, which would have profited wolves, since now we know at least two of them were female.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly.

??? Care to explain a bit?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

Cross-posted. We seem to be thinking along the same lines.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

I agree. I haven't trusted a word she's said since the beginning of Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Thank you for your confidence; and I agree with most of this, with one major exception: Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

Glirdan's & Lalaith's voting records are not as good as Formy's. Lalaith has said some really questionable things regarding the whole Kath/Farael/Eomer thing, and her voting record is worthy of question. We need to see more of the substantive and helpful kinds of posts from Lalaith in order to allay suspicion of her, should she deserve our confidence.

[Cailín]

Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Elempi, I get what you are saying and I would agree... but in the past the guy who be wolvish has been more than able to completely delude me. I just cannot rhyme this obvious wolf with the TGWBS I know. This might be my mistake, however.

For good order, we could (double)lynch him toDay. Innocent TGWBS would thoroughly deserve it for his stubbornness ( ) and we can afford to make a mistake.

Your analysis of Glirdy, tar-ancalime, is helpful, though it is perhaps more interesting to see what the known wolves and Farael have said with regards to him. Either way, he looks pretty bad from my point of view.

[the guy who be short]

I have chosen to analyse Kath for two reasons. The first is that, as a non-lover, her aim is actually to help the wolves. This makes it easier to find them through her words.

The second is that I am pressed for time, and she has barely posted.

Post 16

Opposes herself to double lynchings in al but rare situations.

Post 63

Doesn't make sense. Claims it is easier to find the wolf lover than the ordo lover. Slightly, maybe.

Post 75

Votes for Eomer. Alas. Also attacks Garin. All innocents so far.

Post 198

Says she is not a wolf who killed Anguirel knowing it would lead back to her.

Attacks Farael. Says her vote for Eomer came before LMP's.

Post 256

Nothing important

Post 259

First substantial post.

Attacks Eonwe and Naria for being quiet. This may point to Naria's innocence.

Says she will not make a deal of Glirdan changing his style. Points to his guilt.

Eomer - Says nothing in a lot of words. Doesn't suspect him.

Farael - Sees nothing wolvish

Lhuna - Says she is a misguided innocent, too wolvish to be a wolf.

Votes Eonwe - says she doesn't want to keep a tie between Eonwe, Lhuna, Eomer and Naria. However, there were still 10 votes left to go at this point; I think she really influenced Eonwe's lynching. Was her eagerness only to save Lhuna? Was she that worried for Lhuna? We know Eomer was innocent, so perhaps she was nervous because Naria is also a wolf? This makes me look at Naria quite harshly.

Post 333

Says she wasn't aware spawn suspected her so strongly. She didn't, of course. Farael invented this.

Again argues against double lynchings.

Says my idea of lynching all the men is dangerous. Darn right.

Says she will discuss Lhuna later.

Post 337

Analyses spawn.

Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them.

Probably why spawn was killed. Not due to dreams.

Says Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín are possibly Seer dreams and innocent. Don't know what to think here.

Acuses Farael.

Says there is good reason to suspect Lalaith and Naria.

Post 405

Says spawn maybe dreamt of Glirdan and found him innocent.

Says spawn suspects Naria and that she may be a wolf, but finds it unlikely.

Votes Lhuna, and says if she is a wolf, which she knew she should be, we should view Lommy and Formen as innocent. Interesting.



I am cross-posting with everybody since my last post. If you'll excuse me, I now wish to examine some voting records.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the point

If I am being framed, they need to influence the village to see it.

You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.

I intentionally said that the village should have the right to choose who to double-lynch with me. Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent? By allowing the village to choose who to lynch alongside me, I ensure that there is no influence from me. I cannot nominate Seer candidates or enemy innocents to lynch. It comes down to the village - and they should be analytical enough to find a wolf.


Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Naria
Lalaith

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent?

Yes I do. I don't trust my own wits very much (especially know when I actually don't have any clear suspects except you), and you, as a friend of mathemathics should understand that it's probable that we will lynch an innocent alongside with you, if we're going to lynch you.

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.

[Cailín]

Come on, TGWBS.

The wolves would have no interest in 'setting you up' seeing as they are down to two in a still numerous village, there is still a Seer out there and you have done a great job in making yourself look suspicious. Whoever the kill would have been toNight, you had some explaining to do.

I think basically everyone is more or less arguing for your death right now, and since we are still twelve innocents (I hope I got the math right this time) you'd have a hard time finding a wolf amongst them.

As I said before, I am absolutely not certain whether you are guilty or not and indeed I'd sooner lynch Glirdan than you. However, clearing up confusion is always helpful, most villagers won't rest before you are lying beneath the ground and since I have supported double-lynchings from the start I shall gladly assent to your final request.

Also, the voting could tell us something. The wolves may have easily voted for Lhuna, suspecting her to be the Lover-wolf, but I am hesitant to accept that they would have made a double-lynching possible. Caranlondien, littlemanpoet and possibly Lalaith and Samwise would look bad if that theory is indeed plausible.

edit: cross-posted with TGWBS' message above.

[littlemanpoet]

The paranthesis following the vote getter indicates whether the voter was 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or later to vote for the vote getter on that Day.


Player . . . . . . . . Day 1 . . . . . . . . Day 2 . . . . . . . . Day 3 . . . . . . . accuracy

tar-ancalime . . . Farael (1) . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Kath (3) . . . . . . 2 of 3
Caranlondien . . Anguirel (2) . . . . Lhuna (4) . . . . . Lhuna (6) . . . . . 2 of 3
Thinlómien. . . . . Glirdan (2) . . . . Naria (2) . . . . . . Lhuna (1) . . . . . 1? of 3

Samwise . . . . . Garin (5)* . . . . . Lhuna (2) . . . . . .Lhuna (4) . . . . . 2 of 3
Valier . . . . . . . . . Glirdan (1) . . . . .Eonwe (5) . . . . . Kath (6) . . . . . . 1? of 3
Lalaith . . . . . . . . .Guy (2) . . . . . . .Eonwe (1) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . 1 of 3/ 2 of 3

Glirdan . . . . . . . Garin (4) . . . . . . Naria (1) . . . . . . Kath (4) . . . . . . .1? of 3
Naria . . . . . . . . .Guy (3) . . . . . . . . Eonwe (6) . . . . Kath (7) . . . . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3
Celuien . . . . . . . Garin (3) . . . . . . Samwise (1) . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . .1? of 3

Formendacil . . . .Guy (4) . . . . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . . . .Kath (1) . . . . . . 2 of 3/3 of 3
Guy . . . . . . . . . . .Guy (1)§. . . . . Eomer (1) . . . . . . Farael (1)ª . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3§
Gurthang . . . . . . LMP (2) . . . . . . didn't vote . . . . . .Lhuna (8)± . . . 1 of 2

Cailín . . . . . . . . . Lalaith (1) . . . . .Eonwe (2) . . . . . . didn't vote ± . . . 0 of 2
LMP . . . . . . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . . Lhuna (7) . . . . . 2 of 3

* indicates that Samwise broke a double lynch tie.
ª indicates that Guy voted for the ordo-Lover instead of for a werewolf.
§ indicates that Guy voted for himself.
± indicates that this helped ensure the double lynch of two werewolves and the death of the ordo Lover.

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf, then Formy and Naria look even better (and Guy worse).

Naria improves even more in that she aided in the endeavor to double lynch the two werewolves and the ordo Lover.

Gurthang and Cailíin look pretty good for the same reason.

tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Samwise (and Elempí for that matter) look reasonably innocent.

Guy looks real bad.


The ones that this chart leaves in doubt are Thinlomien, Valier, Glirdan, and Celuien.

EDIT: sorry for the line-wrap; did the best I could with this format

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Elempi

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf...

Guy looks real bad.

Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Originally Posted by Caran

If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

You've lost me. I'm innocent, and I want at least one potential wolf to go down with me if I must.

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

[Lalaith]

I can get online early tomorrow and vote towards the end of the day. Don't know if that will help, mind you.
I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

[Caranlondien]

Sorry, my blabbering in my last post was confusing. What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

As for statistics, I'm sick of hearing about them. Believe me, I'm a scientific person, and I'm all in favor of math. But here our often-flawed reasoning is at work, too. Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday, our chances of hitting a werewolf increase. But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

EDIT: Typo, and cross-posted with Lalaith

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

They do?

Most double-lynchings I've seen have been two ordos. Occassionally you'll get a Wolf as well. Yesterday's doublelynch, while extremely fortuitious for us, was a first, I'm sure, in Tol-in-Gaurhoth history. However, catching two Werewolves means that the number of Werewolves in the village has been halved, while the overall numbers of the village are still over half the original number- meaning that the chances of catching a Werewolf, based on simple stats, have gone DOWN since yesterday.

Which does not mean that a Double-lynch could not catch us a Werewolf- it just means that I refute TGWBS's statement here, and reaffirm my dislike of double-lynchings. Yes, it may catch you a Werewolf, but it will also kill off an innocent.

Fortunately, our village is not yet so low in numbers that we are desperately in need of every Innocent we can lay hands on, but it still seems rather wastefully imprudent to me to be lynching people off every which way we turn.

Anyway...

Having ranting against the ills of double-lynchings, let me say what I'm thinking about TGWBS, yet again:

He's innocent. At least, I think he is. Past experience leads me to think that he's being as innocently normal as we can expect. TGWBS is certainly capable of bold strokes such as he's been accused of, but I somehow don't think that he's guilty of them this time. If he is, then the Werewolves are in serious trouble, with two of their number gone.

Naria's name has also come up a fair bit today as being potentially wolfish. I'm much more hesitant to declare her innocent than TGWBS, although she has been playing to form. However, Naria's style is, by its very nature, rather quiet and cryptic. It wouldn't take much to change suspicious Innocent to suspicious Wolf in her case. I think her a more likely wolf than TGWBS, but I'm not sure yet that she's wolvish...

[Celuien]

Alas, Eomer shall be missed. Praise his memory for spotting both Lhuna and Kath! I'll start the donations for the Royal Eomer Memorial Concert Hall.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?

Huh? What? Oh. I did. Actually, I didn't even think of that when I made the list. Pure coincidence. I guess that particular group that I'd been looking at was just the set that I'd noticed the most at the moment.

Actually, I'm more inclined even than before to think lmp innocent now. He did go after Lhuna pretty strongly, even before it would have been obvious to the Wolves by Farael's defense of her (well, at least from what we see in the village) that they were the Lovers. I'll go back over lmp's posts later.

Agree that TGWBS is definitely looking suspicious now that we know 2/4 wolves at a minimum were indeed female. I'll be watching him closely.

Okay. I'll be back in a few hours.

[tar-ancalime]

Glirdan:

DAY 1

#15 says that double lynches are useful to the wolves

#41 responds to Ang, overly heated, but that's in character for Glirdan

#44 defends tgwbs for his self-vote

#45 nothing of substance

#82 defends Farael against me; suspects Garin as part of an if-we-lynch-tar-ancalime scenario. Where did this come from?

#85 responds to Garin, who was responding to his #82

#90 says he'll probably vote for Garin

#95 sums up the votes so far; votes (fourth) for Garin, saying "his fate is sealed" and "I'm probably wrong on this"

#98 explains his vote farther: he meant to vote for Garin all along but didn't realize how many others still had yet to vote (?)

#101 nothing of substance; refers to himself as a villager

DAY 2

#167 offers to analyze Valier and Caranlondien

#168 analysis of Valier; questions why she voted for him instead of Formendacil

#171 analysis of Caranlondien; casts suspicion on her by misreading her post about "the true lumberjack" as referring to Anguirel; says this makes her vote for Ang look suspicious

#192 apologizes to Caranlondien for #171; defends his new, more active posting style; suspects Naria for being quiet

#235 a smorgasbord of defenses, accusations, and strategy. Here's a sample:

I'm not so sure that they would completely forget about framing the rest of us. But I do agree that they probably far more interested in findig the Seers then framing us. Yet, I think that they would (subconciously mind you) still attempt to frame others. I find that this would be a pretty good way of smoking out a Seer. If someone attacked one who was an innocent and the Seer knew that person was innocent, I believe that the automatic reaction would be to defend that person. In doing so, the Wolves would go for that person. That seems to be the case with what happened to Ang.

Defends his "new style" again, more than once. Reads Lhuna's "damned if I do, damned if I don't" comment as a confession--this looked silly at the time, but now I'm wondering how he knew that.
After a quote from Formendacil, regarding Samwise, Glirdan says he's suspicious of Gurthang. Huh?
Says Cailin and Formendacil are the Lovers; accuses Cailin of being jealous of all the attention Lhuna is getting.
Defends himself against Eomer; this is the most serious matter in the post and he leaves it till last. Eomer is saying that Ang's death looked bad for Glirdan (Ang voted for Glirdan on Day 1.) Looks much more relevant after Eomer's death, no?

#243 says he'll correct the error in #235 (in which he accuses Gurthang instead of Formendacil; the error stands). This error, imho, makes #235 look even stranger: it means he's accusing Formendacil+Lhuna and Formendacil+Cailin of being Lovers. Says he's not surprised at the suspicion against him.

#245 votes for Naria for being quiet

DAY 3

#338 attributes my statement to Thinlomien (maybe not so bad, but it does cheese me off); weighs in on the early version of tgwbs's plan (says it's unlikely that the wolves will continue to attack a female each night, using Ang's death as evidence); defends himself against Eomer again. Again, this is the most serious thing in the post, and again he buries it at the bottom. Says he's going to analyze spawn and eonwe.

#340 analysis of eonwe. I thought this was odd at the time, and I still think it's odd now. Eonwe was (a) innocent, and (b) lynched. No need to figure out why he's dead from his posts; wouldn't it make more sense to look at his accusers? Could this be another attempt to seem helpful without really contributing anything? (Someone else mentioned this in reference to his analyses of Valier and Caranlondien, each of whom had posted about three times at the time of his investigations.)

#351 a partial analysis of spawn's posts; draws no conclusions at all but notes that spawn said he was "acting like usual."

#399 finishes his analysis of spawn; decides that she likely didn't dream of either Lhuna or Kath.

#412 says he doesn't know whom to vote for. Notes that there are cases against both Lhuna and Kath; says there's not much pointing to Kath as a wolf; thinks Kath or Naria is the (non-wolf) Lover.

#414 says Kath is a wolf and votes for her

DAY 4

not here yet

This looks pretty bad for Glirdan in my opinion. I'd welcome alternative analyses, though. (I've made my editorial comments as I went along.)

[Caranlondien]

Tar-Ancalime's analysis of Glirdan puts him on my top suspect list. So right now I'm most suspicious of TGWBS, Formendacil, and Glirdan. As for innocents, I'm inclined to trust Gurthang and tar-ancalime; as someone else said, I'd like to trust LMP, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be back in a few hours, hopefully with a more substantial analysis.

[Lalaith]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan
I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly.

??? Care to explain a bit?

(Lommy)

Yes, that puzzled me too. Then I realised he meant "eliminate from my suspect list" rather than "lynch".

Anyway, more thoughts in a moment.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

What of TGWBS? On the one hand, Lhuna’s willingness to leave him in the lurch, lynchwise, on day one, speaks for his innocence. But his actions yesterDay don’t look good to me. With two women being the most likely seer suspects, he insists that we vote for the men. Is he (as I think Farael, who knew the wolves, actually said!) lone male wolf among three females, and is this his way of proving to his lady friends that he is not a traitor?

I think so. Who but a werewolf would make finding the Lovers top priority?

Originally Posted by Lalaith

One other point. The Day before yesterDay, we had three unlikely babes in the wood – LMP, Form and Samwise – all seemingly realising with shock that lovers would reveal things to each other. I wondered whether this wide-eyed innocence was a ploy by at least one of them – to the extent that I re-posted my surprise, in a deliberately barbed way, hoping to gauge the reaction it got.

Quite simply, I had not thought about it until then. Sorry for taking offense at your offensive (to the male gender) post. Actually, your little test was flawed, because now you can't be sure whether we three reacted to your male bashing or your query as to the three of us. Too bad; I would have liked to know.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Going through the posts, I noticed Celuien’s first analysis, on day one, was of men only, but she didn’t actually say so. What was all that about, Celuien? Why did you just analyse men?

Good question. She is one of the more suspicious based on voting records. More about that when I can compile my notes...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

And all praise to the late Eomer.

Agreed. His voting record (except for Day 1 when I did no better) was stellar.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I am currently most uncomfortable with Form, TGWBS and LMP, in that order.

Good. A healthy analysis of the three of us should point you in the right direction.

[Valier]

Well I am so glad that the double lynch worked out as well as it did! I was not overly suspisious of Kath...but that shows how much I know. Eomer was not someone I thought the wolves would kill yet. I shall be back in a few hours to go over things.( gotta go to class)

[the guy who be short]

I stole the beginning of this from you.

Yesterday.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Well... this tells us a lot. Whoever the wolves are, they were willing to sacrifice two of their number. I shall have to dig deepers.

[the guy who be short]

On retrospect, that tells us a little. Wolves knew that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. Those voting soon after me would probably have voted Farael to save Lhuna if they were wolves.

This points to Lommy's, Formen's, Lal's, Samwise's and Celuien's innocence. Which handily leaves me with two suspects.

Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Naria

[the guy who be short]

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.

Very well. But then I don't think I'll have time to look into day 2s voting.

Innocent:
Gurthang - He has a good track record. He sealed the double lynch. Even before this, I analysed him and came up with an innocent. Possibly my strongest innocent.
tar-ancalime - Seems to analyse Glirdan well. Makes sense.
littlemanpoet - I can't see a wolf-LMP being so courageous. All I can see is LMP, once again being completely and totally sure of himself, true to his nature. And I'd trust a wolf-LMP not to be so irrational, and be far more careful.
Thinlómien - Voting.
Formendacil - Voting
Lalaith - Voting
SamwiseGamgee - Voting

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan - See above. Kath's mentions, plus tar's analysis.
Naria - Kath's mentioning her, plus this:

All in all, I have to truthfully say that I am torn between these two--I just don't know right now--I'll wait a bit and see if anything else happens.

In post 420. It makes me uneasy.

[Lalaith]

I'd like to see more analysis of a wider range of people. I've got a feeling there's a wolf slipping under the radar.
Valier, Caranlondien, Celuien, Naria, Lommy, for example.....

[Formendacil]

Hmmm...

Interesting night, I can see: Eomer dead, but just an innocent, so at least it's not the Seer who's dead.

So, we have one seer, two wolves, and a gaggle of clueless (or do we have clues? We shan't know until there have been lynchings, I fear...) villagers. In other words, now that we've sorted out that whole messy Lovers business, it's back to business as normal.

The only unfortunate thing for me- and I say this in purest jest- is that with both Lhuna and Kath dead, I'm sent back to the drawing board to look for suspects.

TGWBS has popped up a fair bit in today's conversation as a double-lynch victim. Personally, I can't see him being guilty. I've played with him a few times, and he's deadly cunning, to be sure, but I just can't see this current mode of play as Wolfish. It's too... blatant.

Of course, he could be banking on us thinking that.

Oh, and before I forget...

Lalaith, in response to your query regarding the "Can Lovers speak of who the Wolves are", I think I missed it the first time round, since I was probably in "skim-read 12 hours of posting" position. The answer is that I simply hadn't thought through the Lover situation too much. I wasn't one, so why bother?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Suspicious based on the voting record (not anything else, I haven't had time to check the conversation):
Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.

TGWBS - not taking sides in the Lhuna - Kath -debate.

Valier and especially Naria: probably foresaw Kath's doom and jumped on the bandwagon to seem innocent.

I don't analyse the Lhuna-voters, because I don't think that our suspiciousness is related to the phase we voted in. I think we all are suspicious according to the voting record.