Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the guy who be short · 03-21-2006, 11:41 AM

LMP - I have no idea why you've set yourself so hopelessly against me. The easy thing to do would be to suspect you, but to be honest, I consider you innocent. I know how you can be...

As for the Lovers, you seem to have it set in your mind that finding them would be a priority for the wolves. Not so. The Lovers aim is to survive together. This means that as long as the Villagers outnumbered the Wolves, the Lovers would be alligned with the Wolves against the Village.

In addition, it would be easier to find the lovers because there had to be one in the 8 men. What people did not grasp yesterday was that the plan was not a statistical substitute for analysis, but a supplement. I was confident, by analysis, of Gurthang and Eomer's innocence, so that the lovers would most likely be caught in two days.

As to why I wished to find the Lovers - as well as them being alligned against the village, I saw other strengths in the idea. Catching them would be easier than catching wolves because there had to be one amongst the men. And once we had the lovers, we would have a wolf, from which we could use analysis to find the others.

The fatal flaw of the plan that I did not notice, and I later acknowledged, was that it would enable the wolves to pick which women to pit their she-wolves against.

the guy who be short · 03-21-2006, 11:55 AM

Before I get any serious Wolf or Lover analysing done, I wish to put forward my thoughts on what's going on.

I still - obstinately, you may say - do not believe spawn dreamt of Lhuna. This may be because I didn't think so before, and I have not checked since. I'll need to look over this, but I recall there being only very tenuous arguments for this.

Farael attacked Kath to save Lhuna. Yes, I'm going over the obvious, but hear me out. Not only did he know Kath was a wolf, he did this to make himself look like the Seer so that the village would trust him. However, as his argument was so extremely poor, I thought him most likely to be a wolf. At least I was right in my belief that he was an enemy of the village.

There was suspicion on me before yesterday. It is interesting to note that Eomer - my most trusted ally yesterday, and the only one to speak for double lynchings, which, whatever you all may think, is still a good strategy statistically - died in the Night. Perhaps this is my ego flexing itself, but I think part of the reason may have been to destroy my support. I am confident that I am being set up.

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them.

If the village decides that I should die, I will comply and leave you, for I feel that as long as I live, I shall cause confusion. However, If it is the case, I wish to impose conditions. The accused are not usually allowed conditions, but I feel mine are so fair that to deny them would be a sign of wolvery.

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning.

That is all. If you decide to lynch me, toDay or any other day, that condition will apply, unless I state otherwise.

Thinlómien · 03-21-2006, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them.

Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgwbs

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning.

You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.
Guy, whether it's your intention or not, and whether you're a wolf or not, you seem very wolvish.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes, that puzzled me too. Then I realised he meant "eliminate from my suspect list" rather than "lynch".

Thanks. Though I would like to hear the same (or something else) from Glirdan himself.

03-21-2006, 11:41 AM	#1
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Lmp LMP - I have no idea why you've set yourself so hopelessly against me. The easy thing to do would be to suspect you, but to be honest, I consider you innocent. I know how you can be... As for the Lovers, you seem to have it set in your mind that finding them would be a priority for the wolves. Not so. The Lovers aim is to survive together. This means that as long as the Villagers outnumbered the Wolves, the Lovers would be alligned with the Wolves against the Village. In addition, it would be easier to find the lovers because there had to be one in the 8 men. What people did not grasp yesterday was that the plan was not a statistical substitute for analysis, but a supplement. I was confident, by analysis, of Gurthang and Eomer's innocence, so that the lovers would most likely be caught in two days. As to why I wished to find the Lovers - as well as them being alligned against the village, I saw other strengths in the idea. Catching them would be easier than catching wolves because there had to be one amongst the men. And once we had the lovers, we would have a wolf, from which we could use analysis to find the others. The fatal flaw of the plan that I did not notice, and I later acknowledged, was that it would enable the wolves to pick which women to pit their she-wolves against.

03-21-2006, 11:55 AM	#2
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Some thoughts Before I get any serious Wolf or Lover analysing done, I wish to put forward my thoughts on what's going on. I still - obstinately, you may say - do not believe spawn dreamt of Lhuna. This may be because I didn't think so before, and I have not checked since. I'll need to look over this, but I recall there being only very tenuous arguments for this. Farael attacked Kath to save Lhuna. Yes, I'm going over the obvious, but hear me out. Not only did he know Kath was a wolf, he did this to make himself look like the Seer so that the village would trust him. However, as his argument was so extremely poor, I thought him most likely to be a wolf. At least I was right in my belief that he was an enemy of the village. There was suspicion on me before yesterday. It is interesting to note that Eomer - my most trusted ally yesterday, and the only one to speak for double lynchings, which, whatever you all may think, is still a good strategy statistically - died in the Night. Perhaps this is my ego flexing itself, but I think part of the reason may have been to destroy my support. I am confident that I am being set up. Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them. If the village decides that I should die, I will comply and leave you, for I feel that as long as I live, I shall cause confusion. However, If it is the case, I wish to impose conditions. The accused are not usually allowed conditions, but I feel mine are so fair that to deny them would be a sign of wolvery. If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning. That is all. If you decide to lynch me, toDay or any other day, that condition will apply, unless I state otherwise.