Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the guy who be short · 03-21-2006, 02:21 PM

I will have to vote soon next hour or so) and am not sure whether to vote for Naria, Glirdan or myself.

I'm leading towards Naria because something doesn't feel right. Infact, I'm not sure what that is...

I feel an analysis coming on. You realise you should be doing Latin, don't you?

Shut up, Abrahadam.

Thinlómien · 03-21-2006, 02:26 PM

TGWBS - I'm probably going to vote you. If you're having anything to say to your defense, please do it soon for I can't be online for long anymore.

Thinlómien · 03-21-2006, 02:30 PM

It's a goodbye and goodnight from me.

++the guy who be short

Caranlondien · 03-21-2006, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

>Quote:
>Originally Posted by Caran
>[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something<

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

Actually, I pointed it out for a reason; because I thought it might be significant, and I wanted to see what others thought. But I'm confused now; Farael said that when talking about Formendacil, and you say you think it's significant. What about when you said:

Quote:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

>Quote:
>Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.<
I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

What do you think of Formendacil? Within the same post, you seem to be defending him and accusing him. Maybe I misinterpreted one of the things you said...

Edit: Distinguishing betweeen TGWBS quoting me and me quoting him

the guy who be short · 03-21-2006, 02:36 PM

Caranlondien - I am more in favour of Formen's innocence than his guilt, because I can't see a wolf bringing Kath into the equation. While it may be significant, I think Farael my just have been confusing us.

So, one vote for me. Please remember my request if you decide to follow in Thinlo's footsteps. Only a wolf would think double lynchings could possibly be detrimental to the village.

the guy who be short · 03-21-2006, 02:33 PM

Post 29

Says little of importantce.

Post 103

Votes for me, as she would normally vote for Nilp in such a situation, and I'm filling in for him. This is actually very normal for her, but she could be hiding behind it. There is never, of course, reason to lynch people based on character.

Post 220

Nothing

Post 225

Claims to be surprised that Lover's can divulge wolvish info to one another.

Post 280

Very upset that Thinlo thinks she is scary. Jumps on Eonwe bandwagon.

Post 420

Says my plan will not work. It would.

Trusts Farael a little. With the amount of evidence he gave?

Sees that people suspect Kath, so claims that there have been "damning posts" convincing her of Kath's guilt. Righty...

Also suspects Lhuna. This is where she states she'll wait to see what happens before voting, which unnerves me.

Post 439

~

Post 442

Confused.

Post 443

Votes Kath on Farael's advice. Says there's only one way for somebody to know somebody else's role with certainty. Didn't we discuss the lovers earlier?

Post 449

Picks on Gurthang for using general instead of specific terms.

She really seems to have said little worth saying...

Valier · 03-21-2006, 02:37 PM

I just did a large analysis on the voting and something happened and I erased it!!!!!!!!aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh Will do it all over again.....

Valier · 03-21-2006, 02:50 PM

Ok I think looking at the voting will help us greatly today.

There a few spots on the list that could be thought of as safe zones for wolves in my opinion.These being:

Lalaith and Samwise: Both voted for Lhuna early knowing there are more votes to come, perhaps at least one of these could be a wolf.Their two votes could be seen as unfantastic in their placement, which is good if your a wolf.

Celuien: This vote for Kath would only be the second for her so also a safe spot for a wolf.

Tar and Glirdan:These votes again for Kath are not first,but not last either.This is good cover.

Thin and TGWBS: these votes being first could be good or could suggest two wolves eager to be rid of the lovers. These two could be the wolves and they planned to vote first and for each lover hoping to double lynch both and not seems suspisious for voting both one way.

I had alot more, but I find it hard to do it all over again. I could be grasping at straws, but I think I may have something.....Back later to explain more.

SamwiseGamgee · 03-21-2006, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

Ok I think looking at the voting will help us greatly today.

There a few spots on the list that could be thought of as safe zones for wolves in my opinion.These being:

Lalaith and Samwise: Both voted for Lhuna early knowing there are more votes to come, perhaps at least one of these could be a wolf.Their two votes could be seen as unfantastic in their placement, which is good if your a wolf.

Celuien: This vote for Kath would only be the second for her so also a safe spot for a wolf.

Tar and Glirdan:These votes again for Kath are not first,but not last either.This is good cover.

Thin and TGWBS: these votes being first could be good or could suggest two wolves eager to be rid of the lovers. These two could be the wolves and they planned to vote first and for each lover hoping to double lynch both and not seems suspisious for voting both one way.

I had alot more, but I find it hard to do it all over again. I could be grasping at straws, but I think I may have something.....Back later to explain more.

Could you explain Valier? I'm not accusing you or even, to be honest, mildly suspicious (darned pouting!) but if you're about I'd just like to know what your 'something' came to.

the guy who be short · 03-21-2006, 02:43 PM

++Naria

Because the way we're overlooking her worries me.

Caranlondien · 03-21-2006, 03:03 PM

Well, TGWBS is perplexing, that's for sure.

I just don't know what to think. Of course his request that we double-lynch is kind of awkward. I mean, if we suspect him enough to lynch him, should we really take advice from him? If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

littlemanpoet · 03-21-2006, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Well, TGWBS is perplexing, that's for sure.

I just don't know what to think. Of course his request that we double-lynch is kind of awkward. I mean, if we suspect him enough to lynch him, should we really take advice from him? If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

Guy is right. Double lynching favors the innocents. Think it through and you'll come to the same conclusion. Whether he's innocent or guilty, Guy is right about this.

littlemanpoet · 03-21-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elempi

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf...

Guy looks real bad.

Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Missed a few commas in that. Try this:

"If you, like I, conclude that Guy is a werewolf...."

Better?

Cailín · 03-21-2006, 04:47 PM

I am right now more confused than ever... so a good thing I'll get to sleep on it.

I am not nor have I ever been sure TGWBS is guilty. His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain. Right now I am not convinced of Naria's guilt -she has posted little, but she never has been known as a vocal, helpful player- and see more in lynching Glirdan along with The Guy. That lynching two potential wolves is most beneficial seems obvious to pretty much everyone.

I shall see you all in the morning. May the wisdom of the Prophet aid you in your choice.

Celuien · 03-21-2006, 05:37 PM

Sorry for lack of formatting below, but I'm somewhat pressed for time. Hopefully, it's just as good un-bolded.

Glirdan:

DAY 1:

#15: Laments Nilp, says wolves will use double lynching to their advantage. Day one nonsense directed towards Eomer about his being rich and sent to lead the lycans.

Looks pretty much like typical day 1 commentary, though wolf-Kath’s nearly simultaneous denial of double lynching (unless two wolves are identified by dream) is interesting.

#41: Says that he and Ang are the only sane villagers, makes a big deal over being asleep at night to find Nilp dead in the morning in respose to Valier‘s accusation of the unemployed.

Hmm. Sort of an extreme response to Valier, especially since it was directed at both of our jobless residents.

#44: Suggests leaving TGWBS alone

Not a bad idea. I’d agree with it myself.

#45: announcement of cross posting with Gurthang.

#82: Defends TGWBS and Farael. Accueses Garin of hiding behind an innocent tar-a.

#85: Back and forth with Garin. Says that he’s being “being very contradictive and probably confusing” by quoting rules, apologize for said confusion and retracts the statement. Wonders why Garin is being so defensive.

#95: Votes for Garin

#98: Says his vote is not apologetic, as had been suggested by Garin in 97. Makes this odd statement:

Ok, I voted for Garin because I've been meaning to for quite some time now. But then I realised that when I agreed with him that his fate is probably sealed, I realised that there were still quite a few other people that have to vote and that he may not get lynched toDay.

Trying to make a throwaway vote? Trying to cover tracks when Garin would be found innocent?

#101: Says he’s going to sleep.

DAY 2:

#167: Promises analysis of Caralondien and Valire
#168: Analysis of Valier, which he says doesn’t; get him far. Wonders why she voted for him instead of Fordmenacil.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.

#192: Says that he’s playing more boldly than usual and likes it. Suspects Naria for unnerving quietness.

#235: Oft cited comment to Lhuna, “Is this a confession?” Suspects Gurthang and Lhuina of being Lovers. Agrees that votes may have been cast to save potential Lovers Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Reiterates that he has changes his style. Also accuses Cailin and Gurthang of being potential Lovers. Asks Eomer why he would attack Ang as a wolf after being accused since it makes him look suspicious. (Replied to by Eomer in 237, where he points out Gliry is jumpy over the accusation considering it was much more focused on Kath than on him).

#243: Continues to say that he would not have attacked Ang if he were a wolf because it would brig too much suspicion on to him.

#245: Votes for Naria on the basis of her being suspiciously quiet.

Defended by wolf-Lhuna in 269 (where she also quotes her day 1 defense of innocent-Garin and him).

DAY 3:

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.

#340: Analysis of Eonwe.

Agree with others that there wasn’t much point to doing this.

#351: Summary of spawn‘s posts.

#399: Completed spawn analysis. Says that he doesn’t find evidence of a Kath or Lhuna dream, thinks that spawn voted for Lhuna on instinct and evidence gathering.

Still doesn’t make it clear if he finds Kath of Lhuna suspicious.

#412. Doesn’t know who to vote for. Now supports a double lynch. Says there are cases against Lhuna and Kath and that there’s not much to go on about Kath. Seems to be leaning towards voting for Naria.

I find this post just a bit odd, especially since it covers both sides of the issue with Kath, then attacks Naria mildly. I don’t know. It just feels wishy-washy and base covering. Could just be a confused innocent, but it feels wrong to me.

#414: Decides Kath is a Wolf due to flip flop on Lhuna. And votes for her.

This could speak to Glirdy’s innocence. But it came at a ‘safe’ time (as I acknowledge my vote did) if he wanted to hide his vote. Then again, would a Kath vote have been so safe once Lhuna was revealed to be guilty? That would have immediately brought suspiciousness on Kath voters if the double lynch failed after Lhuna’s identity was revealed.

Incidentally, I don’t know how much yesterday’s voting can really tell us, since there was no choice but the vote wolf for wolf without looking very suspicious. And the rest of us were voting either on genuine suspicion (which turned out to be well founded) or also to help the double lynch plan. And I’m not sure there’s any way to tease it out of the tangle.

Just a few other closing thoughts. I think Gurthang is innocent, based on his ensuring the double lynch last night (though it was pretty obvious that Lhuna was a wolf at the time he voted for her). And I still didn’t find anything to make me suspect lmp as I glanced over his posts.

Glirdan does, however, look very suspicious to me now given Lhuna’s defense of him and the various things a commented on above. I might just vote for him unless something happens to change my mind.

03-21-2006, 02:33 PM	#6
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Naria Post 29 Says little of importantce. Post 103 Votes for me, as she would normally vote for Nilp in such a situation, and I'm filling in for him. This is actually very normal for her, but she could be hiding behind it. There is never, of course, reason to lynch people based on character. Post 220 Nothing Post 225 Claims to be surprised that Lover's can divulge wolvish info to one another. Post 280 Very upset that Thinlo thinks she is scary. Jumps on Eonwe bandwagon. Post 420 Says my plan will not work. It would. Trusts Farael a little. With the amount of evidence he gave? Sees that people suspect Kath, so claims that there have been "damning posts" convincing her of Kath's guilt. Righty... Also suspects Lhuna. This is where she states she'll wait to see what happens before voting, which unnerves me. Post 439 ~ Post 442 Confused. Post 443 Votes Kath on Farael's advice. Says there's only one way for somebody to know somebody else's role with certainty. Didn't we discuss the lovers earlier? Post 449 Picks on Gurthang for using general instead of specific terms. She really seems to have said little worth saying...

03-21-2006, 04:47 PM	#14
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Bedtime I am right now more confused than ever... so a good thing I'll get to sleep on it. I am not nor have I ever been sure TGWBS is guilty. His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain. Right now I am not convinced of Naria's guilt -she has posted little, but she never has been known as a vocal, helpful player- and see more in lynching Glirdan along with The Guy. That lynching two potential wolves is most beneficial seems obvious to pretty much everyone. I shall see you all in the morning. May the wisdom of the Prophet aid you in your choice.

03-21-2006, 02:21 PM	#1
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	I will have to vote soon next hour or so) and am not sure whether to vote for Naria, Glirdan or myself. I'm leading towards Naria because something doesn't feel right. Infact, I'm not sure what that is... I feel an analysis coming on. You realise you should be doing Latin, don't you? Shut up, Abrahadam.

03-21-2006, 02:26 PM	#2
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	TGWBS - I'm probably going to vote you. If you're having anything to say to your defense, please do it soon for I can't be online for long anymore. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

03-21-2006, 02:30 PM	#3
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	It's a goodbye and goodnight from me. ++the guy who be short __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

03-21-2006, 02:36 PM	#5
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Caranlondien - I am more in favour of Formen's innocence than his guilt, because I can't see a wolf bringing Kath into the equation. While it may be significant, I think Farael my just have been confusing us. So, one vote for me. Please remember my request if you decide to follow in Thinlo's footsteps. Only a wolf would think double lynchings could possibly be detrimental to the village.

03-21-2006, 02:37 PM	#7
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	I just did a large analysis on the voting and something happened and I erased it!!!!!!!!aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh Will do it all over again.....

03-21-2006, 02:50 PM	#8
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Ok I think looking at the voting will help us greatly today. There a few spots on the list that could be thought of as safe zones for wolves in my opinion.These being: Lalaith and Samwise: Both voted for Lhuna early knowing there are more votes to come, perhaps at least one of these could be a wolf.Their two votes could be seen as unfantastic in their placement, which is good if your a wolf. Celuien: This vote for Kath would only be the second for her so also a safe spot for a wolf. Tar and Glirdan:These votes again for Kath are not first,but not last either.This is good cover. Thin and TGWBS: these votes being first could be good or could suggest two wolves eager to be rid of the lovers. These two could be the wolves and they planned to vote first and for each lover hoping to double lynch both and not seems suspisious for voting both one way. I had alot more, but I find it hard to do it all over again. I could be grasping at straws, but I think I may have something.....Back later to explain more.

03-21-2006, 02:43 PM	#10
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	++Naria Because the way we're overlooking her worries me.

03-21-2006, 03:03 PM	#11
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Well, TGWBS is perplexing, that's for sure. I just don't know what to think. Of course his request that we double-lynch is kind of awkward. I mean, if we suspect him enough to lynch him, should we really take advice from him? If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

03-21-2006, 05:37 PM	#15
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Sorry for lack of formatting below, but I'm somewhat pressed for time. Hopefully, it's just as good un-bolded. Glirdan: DAY 1: #15: Laments Nilp, says wolves will use double lynching to their advantage. Day one nonsense directed towards Eomer about his being rich and sent to lead the lycans. Looks pretty much like typical day 1 commentary, though wolf-Kath’s nearly simultaneous denial of double lynching (unless two wolves are identified by dream) is interesting. #41: Says that he and Ang are the only sane villagers, makes a big deal over being asleep at night to find Nilp dead in the morning in respose to Valier‘s accusation of the unemployed. Hmm. Sort of an extreme response to Valier, especially since it was directed at both of our jobless residents. #44: Suggests leaving TGWBS alone Not a bad idea. I’d agree with it myself. #45: announcement of cross posting with Gurthang. #82: Defends TGWBS and Farael. Accueses Garin of hiding behind an innocent tar-a. #85: Back and forth with Garin. Says that he’s being “being very contradictive and probably confusing” by quoting rules, apologize for said confusion and retracts the statement. Wonders why Garin is being so defensive. #95: Votes for Garin #98: Says his vote is not apologetic, as had been suggested by Garin in 97. Makes this odd statement: Ok, I voted for Garin because I've been meaning to for quite some time now. But then I realised that when I agreed with him that his fate is probably sealed, I realised that there were still quite a few other people that have to vote and that he may not get lynched toDay. Trying to make a throwaway vote? Trying to cover tracks when Garin would be found innocent? #101: Says he’s going to sleep. DAY 2: #167: Promises analysis of Caralondien and Valire #168: Analysis of Valier, which he says doesn’t; get him far. Wonders why she voted for him instead of Fordmenacil. #171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote. Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently. #192: Says that he’s playing more boldly than usual and likes it. Suspects Naria for unnerving quietness. #235: Oft cited comment to Lhuna, “Is this a confession?” Suspects Gurthang and Lhuina of being Lovers. Agrees that votes may have been cast to save potential Lovers Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Reiterates that he has changes his style. Also accuses Cailin and Gurthang of being potential Lovers. Asks Eomer why he would attack Ang as a wolf after being accused since it makes him look suspicious. (Replied to by Eomer in 237, where he points out Gliry is jumpy over the accusation considering it was much more focused on Kath than on him). #243: Continues to say that he would not have attacked Ang if he were a wolf because it would brig too much suspicion on to him. #245: Votes for Naria on the basis of her being suspiciously quiet. Defended by wolf-Lhuna in 269 (where she also quotes her day 1 defense of innocent-Garin and him). DAY 3: #338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan). Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna. #340: Analysis of Eonwe. Agree with others that there wasn’t much point to doing this. #351: Summary of spawn‘s posts. #399: Completed spawn analysis. Says that he doesn’t find evidence of a Kath or Lhuna dream, thinks that spawn voted for Lhuna on instinct and evidence gathering. Still doesn’t make it clear if he finds Kath of Lhuna suspicious. #412. Doesn’t know who to vote for. Now supports a double lynch. Says there are cases against Lhuna and Kath and that there’s not much to go on about Kath. Seems to be leaning towards voting for Naria. I find this post just a bit odd, especially since it covers both sides of the issue with Kath, then attacks Naria mildly. I don’t know. It just feels wishy-washy and base covering. Could just be a confused innocent, but it feels wrong to me. #414: Decides Kath is a Wolf due to flip flop on Lhuna. And votes for her. This could speak to Glirdy’s innocence. But it came at a ‘safe’ time (as I acknowledge my vote did) if he wanted to hide his vote. Then again, would a Kath vote have been so safe once Lhuna was revealed to be guilty? That would have immediately brought suspiciousness on Kath voters if the double lynch failed after Lhuna’s identity was revealed. Incidentally, I don’t know how much yesterday’s voting can really tell us, since there was no choice but the vote wolf for wolf without looking very suspicious. And the rest of us were voting either on genuine suspicion (which turned out to be well founded) or also to help the double lynch plan. And I’m not sure there’s any way to tease it out of the tangle. Just a few other closing thoughts. I think Gurthang is innocent, based on his ensuring the double lynch last night (though it was pretty obvious that Lhuna was a wolf at the time he voted for her). And I still didn’t find anything to make me suspect lmp as I glanced over his posts. Glirdan does, however, look very suspicious to me now given Lhuna’s defense of him and the various things a commented on above. I might just vote for him unless something happens to change my mind. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.