The Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

tar-ancalime · 03-22-2006, 04:19 PM

Quote:

I assign myself as Hunter to Mordor. Probably the worst performance in the history of WW (Feanor's killing of the Seer in a WWJ wasn't great, I admit, but at least she had the kudos of WWIV to fall back on.)

Hey...both of these examples involve me...am I some kind of Hunter's Bane?

I thought you played great as Hunter in WWXIII--your only problem was staying alive so long. Also I seem to recall a lot of talk after the game was over about how everyone knew I was the wolf anyway but you all let me live so the game wouldn't be over so fast. And then, in a fit of dumb luck, I attacked the Cursed. Can't blame yourself for that, can you? Actually I'm starting to think I should retire--as a wolf I was so obvious that the villagers actually played along with me, and as Seer I was so suspicious that the Hunter killed me.

I wonder if the Hunter should have a suicide option if he/she is really sure of the identity of one of the wolves, and the village hasn't cottoned on yet.

Oddwen · 03-22-2006, 04:35 PM

Know what might be handy...a list (shock!) of all the players who have ever played, and their timezones, and maybe a list of roles and their deviants. If this thread is to be a reference thread.

Glirdan · 03-22-2006, 04:36 PM

Update!!

Played in - IX, X, XIII, XV, XVII, XVIII, XIX, J II

Number of games: 8
Modded: 2 (J I, J III)
Ordinary Villager: 6
Werewolf Hunter: 1
Ranger: 0
Shirriff: 0
Cobbler: 0
Werewolf: 0
Black Beorning: 1
Lover: 0
False Seer: 0
Cursed: 0

On winning team: 3
On losing team: 5
Survived to end: 2
Lynched: 4
Killed by Wolves/Heroes: 0
Double Lynched:4
Mass Lynched:0

I've added three roles that have shown up in other games that I've played in. Are there any others?? Oh and would you look at that! My double lynch count keeps going up!!! I think I hold a record!! Wait, two records!! 1) For having been double lynched the most and 2) For having the longest streak of double lynchings (three in a row!!

). Yay me!!

Holbytlass · 03-23-2006, 12:08 AM

III Azaelia killed Holby
VI Lhuna killed Holby
IIX SaucepanMan killed Gurthang (Black Beorning)
XI Mormegil killed Abercrombie
XII Eomer killed Cailin

No hunter successes in WWJr-yet.

Lhunardawen · 03-23-2006, 12:19 AM

Quote:

VI Lhuna killed Holby

Well...not exactly. I had you pinned, but you didn't kill me.

Holbytlass · 03-23-2006, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Well...not exactly. I had you pinned, but you didn't kill me.

You killed me, you were the hunter and I was the wolf. I guess the title is misleading.

Lhunardawen · 03-23-2006, 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

You killed me, you were the hunter and I was the wolf. I guess the title is misleading.

Well, yes, that's how Fea chose to narrate your death...I guess it's a special case. But I didn't really live up to the Hunter role - dying and taking someone along to the grave.

**The Saucepan Man** · 03-23-2006, 08:02 AM

One of the points of creating this thread was to provide an opportunity to look for particular patterns arising from the games that have been played. The recent talk concerning those who have survived games prompted me to wonder about the extent to which survival to the end is related to one’s role.

So I made a list of the number of survivors in each role. This covers all of the games concluded to date, with the exception of Sleepy’s game. The latter has not yet been “catalogued” here and, frankly, I am confused over just who survived. It looks to me, however, that most of those who survived the game (if not the final narrative) were ordinary villagers, which would not affect the statistics below too much.

Survivors:

Werewolf: 22
Black Beorning: 0
Cobbler: 1
Mytho: 2
Cursed: 2 (once as a Wolf, once as an Ordinary Villager)
Seer: 1
Ranger: 0
Hunter: 6 (or 7, if you count Naria’s disappearance in WW17)
Shirriff: 3
Ordinary Villager: 29

(For Anguirel’s game, the Heroes have been counted as Wolves and the un-gifted Wolves as Ordinary Villagers.)

While this is fairly “rough and ready”, since it is affected by the number of times each role has been used and the number of villagers with that role in each game, I think that some broad conclusions can still be drawn.

Obviously, the “safest” role is that of Ordinary Villager, but that is because of the “safety in numbers” principle (similar to the survival tactics of herd animals

). Ords are the most numerous in any game, and therefore have a much better chance of survival.

It does not surprise me that the second “safest” role is that of Werewolf, because on average the Werewolves tend to win more times than the Villagers and, where an equal number of Wolves and innocent Villagers are left on the final day, the Wolves survive whereas the innocents do not.

The figures suggest that your chances of surviving if you are a Ranger or the Seer are pretty negligible. That makes sense, given that these roles are prime Werewolf targets and the nature of the role can also often prompt a misconceived lynching. It also doesn’t surprise me that Werebears and Cobblers are more likely to die than not, given the nature of their roles.

But what is quite noticeable is that, proportionately (given that there is usually only one per village), Hunters have a very high survival rate. I suppose that this is explicable by the fact that Wolves are often able to identify the Hunter, and Hunters are more likely to declare themselves or drop obvious hints, and Wolves are then more likely to avoid them as nightly kills for fear of one of their own being taken down.

The Shirriff survival rate is also quite impressive, given that they have only been included in a relatively small number of games.

No doubt this post confirms Mith’s view of me as borderline Aspergis …

03-22-2006, 04:35 PM	#2
Oddwen Drummer in the Deep Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Next Sunday A.D. Posts: 2,145	Know what might be handy...a list (shock!) of all the players who have ever played, and their timezones, and maybe a list of roles and their deviants. If this thread is to be a reference thread. __________________ But all the while I sit and think of times there were before I listen for returning feet and voices at the door

03-22-2006, 04:36 PM	#3
Glirdan Energetic Essence Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew Posts: 3,285	Update!! Played in - IX, X, XIII, XV, XVII, XVIII, XIX, J II Number of games: 8 Modded: 2 (J I, J III) Ordinary Villager: 6 Werewolf Hunter: 1 Ranger: 0 Shirriff: 0 Cobbler: 0 Werewolf: 0 Black Beorning: 1 Lover: 0 False Seer: 0 Cursed: 0 On winning team: 3 On losing team: 5 Survived to end: 2 Lynched: 4 Killed by Wolves/Heroes: 0 Double Lynched:4 Mass Lynched:0 I've added three roles that have shown up in other games that I've played in. Are there any others?? Oh and would you look at that! My double lynch count keeps going up!!! I think I hold a record!! Wait, two records!! 1) For having been double lynched the most and 2) For having the longest streak of double lynchings (three in a row!! ). Yay me!! __________________ *I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face!* Fenris Wolf Last edited by Glirdan; 03-30-2006 at 05:39 PM.

03-23-2006, 12:08 AM	#4
Holbytlass Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2003 Location: The Party Tree Posts: 1,042	Successful Hunter killed Wolf III Azaelia killed Holby VI Lhuna killed Holby IIX SaucepanMan killed Gurthang (Black Beorning) XI Mormegil killed Abercrombie XII Eomer killed Cailin No hunter successes in WWJr-yet. __________________ Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance? ~Nerwen, WWCIII Last edited by Holbytlass; 03-23-2006 at 12:23 AM.

03-23-2006, 08:02 AM	#8
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Werewolf Survivor One of the points of creating this thread was to provide an opportunity to look for particular patterns arising from the games that have been played. The recent talk concerning those who have survived games prompted me to wonder about the extent to which survival to the end is related to one’s role. So I made a list of the number of survivors in each role. This covers all of the games concluded to date, with the exception of Sleepy’s game. The latter has not yet been “catalogued” here and, frankly, I am confused over just who survived. It looks to me, however, that most of those who survived the game (if not the final narrative) were ordinary villagers, which would not affect the statistics below too much. Survivors: Werewolf: 22 Black Beorning: 0 Cobbler: 1 Mytho: 2 Cursed: 2 (once as a Wolf, once as an Ordinary Villager) Seer: 1 Ranger: 0 Hunter: 6 (or 7, if you count Naria’s disappearance in WW17) Shirriff: 3 Ordinary Villager: 29 (For Anguirel’s game, the Heroes have been counted as Wolves and the un-gifted Wolves as Ordinary Villagers.) While this is fairly “rough and ready”, since it is affected by the number of times each role has been used and the number of villagers with that role in each game, I think that some broad conclusions can still be drawn. Obviously, the “safest” role is that of Ordinary Villager, but that is because of the “safety in numbers” principle (similar to the survival tactics of herd animals ). Ords are the most numerous in any game, and therefore have a much better chance of survival. It does not surprise me that the second “safest” role is that of Werewolf, because on average the Werewolves tend to win more times than the Villagers and, where an equal number of Wolves and innocent Villagers are left on the final day, the Wolves survive whereas the innocents do not. The figures suggest that your chances of surviving if you are a Ranger or the Seer are pretty negligible. That makes sense, given that these roles are prime Werewolf targets and the nature of the role can also often prompt a misconceived lynching. It also doesn’t surprise me that Werebears and Cobblers are more likely to die than not, given the nature of their roles. But what is quite noticeable is that, proportionately (given that there is usually only one per village), Hunters have a very high survival rate. I suppose that this is explicable by the fact that Wolves are often able to identify the Hunter, and Hunters are more likely to declare themselves or drop obvious hints, and Wolves are then more likely to avoid them as nightly kills for fear of one of their own being taken down. The Shirriff survival rate is also quite impressive, given that they have only been included in a relatively small number of games. No doubt this post confirms Mith’s view of me as borderline Aspergis … __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!