Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Formendacil]

Good Morning, good village...

It's nice to wake up and find oneself still alive!

Okay, reading over the Day's discussion, it seems that we have two main topics on our minds. The first, of course, is Why Did the Wolves Kill Celuien? The second is, Is SamwiseGamgee Guilty?

To address the first: I have no idea.

Thinking on the issue, I am in agreement with those who think that Celuien must have exhibited some Seer-ish qualities. At this point in the game, I don't think the Wolves can afford to leave the Seer alive.

That said, however, I'm a hedgehog if I can see anything in Celuien that looked Seerish. Now, I obviously can't see it as the Werewolves do, but from where I'm sitting, nothing about her looks particularly suspicious. Most of Celuien's suspicions weren't expressed strongly, and they tended to wander a little, I thought.

But what reason does that leave for the Werewolves to go after Celuien? You'd think, that if they couldn't get the Seer, they'd take down one of the more prominent- more dangerous- villagers. LMP definitely comes to mind.

So, the question for me is: did the Werewolves, having no idea who the Seer was, opt to throw the village into mass confusion by killing someone who was otherwise pointless to kill?

I am left rather confused by this whole matter, and shall set it aside then, and move on to SamwiseGamgee, the second matter.

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere. He's been on my "seems innocent" list since Day 1, and on a lot of other people's lists as well. And, looking back, I can't really say that he looks particularly guilty. He was, as much-noted, a member of the anti-Lhuna campaign that saw Lhuna lynched. Now this, in and of itself, does not strike me as particularly guilty- several people voted Lhuna. On the other hand, it is a strike against him.

On the theory that Lhuna's Lover-ness was NOT deduced by the Werewolves until the course of that day, is it possible that Samwise was setting himself up the day before (when he also came out against Lhuna) to look good if Lhuna got lynched?

I'm still unsure as to where to place Samwise in my mind: Guilty or Not? The trust of the village in him over the last few days is a hard habit to break. I mean, it's one thing for me to think him relatively innocent- most of the village has been in agreement.

On the other hand, the evidence does seem to be pointing in his general direction, and from what little I know of him from elsewhere (such as the Warg Society), he definitely comes across as intelligent enough to pull the wool over the village eyes.

Still not sure... but I'll be back later...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere.

That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.

I know my suspicions of Samwise come mainly from the things I found in my analysis. A strange idea came to my mind. If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise? For wolvishness can be seen in anything, if it's looked for. Anyway, he remains at the top of my suspicions' list.

I would like to add that I don't suspect him - or anyone else - strongly. The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I agree the person who said we're having a few good liars in the village. Or if not liars, then good hiders(sp?).

[Thinlómien]

Hmph, I have to go and I won't be able to get back.

++SamwiseGamgee

I hope I'm not mistaken.

[Gurthang]

Part 4 will be coming soon. I just got it done, but I want to proof it first. It's pretty long, so I apologize for that much of it.

I'm with Samwise on this one. I've not been suspicious of him before, and I'm really surprised with how the village has taken off with the thought of lynching him. I haven't finished my complete analysis yet, just the research part, so I won't know exactly until I finish that.

I can see that Formendacil is pretty much staying out of it. Might be the right thing to do, as I don't know.

One thing I do find slightly odd is that Samwise seems a little overly protective of his own health. Which, to the contrary, brings up a good point towards Caranlondien in that she was questioned and decided to continue doing analysis rather than worrying about getting lynched. A wolf will be more worried about survival.

[Gurthang]

Analysis by Parts

First, I feel that I should point out that one of part of my analysis (Part 1 actually) was my gut instinct. However much you do or do not trust me, I doubt that anyone but me should be relying on my gut. So, I won't be offended if you pretty much just ignore that part when making your own conclusions.

Now, on with my analysis.

Part 4: Individual Voting:

Obviously, an innocent person can vote in a way that looks suspicious. It's not plausible that only the wolves would vote 'suspiciously' because the innocents don't really know for sure what they are doing( me included ). That said, certain voting will still look suspicious, whether the person is innocent or not. So, this is how suspicious a vote looks, and I'll have to do it for each person seperately, so it will be long. I will be putting my own opinions in italics, so they can be easily seen as my own thoughts.

Caranlondien - Day 1: Votes for Anguirel. Gives decent reasoning. (0) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Still wants double lynch. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Widens gap between Kath and Lhuna. In light of the planned double-lynch, I really don't like this vote. (-1) Day 4: No vote.

tar-ancalime - Day 1: Votes for Farael. Hit the lover, but that doesn't really tell us much for Day 1. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eomer. Quotes reasons. Despite voting for an innocent, her extensive reasoning makes it less suspicious. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Narrows gap between Lhuna and Kath. Too easy for a wolf to vote for Lhuna, it wouldn't make sense for one to vote for Kath. (+1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Can't say yea or nea about it. I probably would have done the same. (0)

Cailín - Day 1: Votes "randomly" for Lalaith. Can't know anything for sure about this one. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Only current suspect with a vote already. Doesn't seem suspicious. (0) Day 3: No vote. This allows double lynch. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Naria - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. Her reasoning was strange, but typical Day 1 vote. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. "...after I jump on this bandwagon!!" (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Ties Kath and Lhuna with 3 voters left. Very unlikely for a wolf. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Valier - Day 1: Votes for Glirdan. Reasoning was occupation mostly, but Day 1 is random. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Votes for leader for being 'most annoying'. (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Narrows gap that ended in double-lynch. Wouldn't make sense for a wolf to vote this way, one Lhuna vote pretty much stops the double and doesn't look suspicious. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Lalaith - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. "Following his advice." Seems mildly suspicious, but not enough for a negative. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Because of Eonwe's random vote on Day 2. Could be a safe vote for a wolf, but just as easily could be enough reason for an innocent. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. This widened the gap between Kath and Lhuna (which was bad), so could be a wolf trying to save Kath. (-1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Ties Glirdan and Guy for doulbe-lynch. Can't tell anything from this, there were still many voters left. (0)

Thinlómien - Day 1: Votes for Glirdan. Seems most guilty to her. (0) Day 2: Votes for Naria. Votes for an unknown in a six way 2 unknown-2 wolf-2 innocent tie. Drawn between Lhuna and Naria, saw Naria as more suspect; I can't blame her. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. First vote for Lhuna. Could be setting up lover-wolf to look innocent. (0) Day 4: Votes for TGWBS. Can't really say anything, as I also was mildly suspicious of him. (0)

Formendacil - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. Ties Garin and Guy. He put up a tie between two innocents, but with all the support for double lynchings... (0) Day 2: Votes for Kath. Ensured Eonwe's death. It seems far to much like a wolf voting for a fellow when someone else already has the noose around their neck. (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Ties Lhuna-wolf with Kath-wolf. Extremely unlikely that a wolf would bring his true fellow up beside a Lover. (+1) Day 4: Votes for Naria. Votes for an unknown rather than bandwagoning, but could be wolf not breaking the tie. (0)

littlemanpoet - Day 1: Votes for Eomer. Seems retaliatory; although I, on Day 1, was also sure there was something going on between these two. Eomer was acting slightly odd, so no negative. (0) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Gives reasons through several posts. Extensive reasons and quotes seem unlikely, as it would be wolf building a case against wolf. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. After this, a double lynch would have been much more difficult. One more Lhuna vote might have doomed it. (-1) Day 4: Votes for TGWBS. Don't know anything. (0)

Gurthang - Day 1: Votes for LMP. I felt that there was something between Eomer and LMP and sided with Eomer. (0) Day 2: No Vote. Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Creats tie and double-lynch. (+1) Day 4: No Vote.

SamwiseGamgee - Day 1: Votes for Garin. Breaks Garin-Guy tie. I doubt a wolf would be worried enough to break a tie between two innocents. (+1) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Brings Lhuna into a tie for the lead. Unlikely for a wolf to bring up a fellow, even if he suspected her of Loverness. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Widens gap between wolf and Lover-wolf. In light of the planned double-lynch, I really don't like this. (-1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Can't tell anything. (0)

Extra +'s and -'s:

+1 for being first to vote for a wolf. A wolf would be less likely to push another wolf forward for lynch:
Thinlómien
Formendacil

+1 for voting for a wolf twice:
Caranlondien
Formendacil
LMP
Samwise

-1 for voting for an innocent thrice:
Lalaith

So, totals(top + extra):

Caranlondien -> -1 + +1 = 0
tar-ancalime -> +2 + 0 = +2
Cailín -> +1 + 0 = +1
Naria -> 0 + 0 = 0
Valier -> 0 + 0 = 0
Lalaith -> -1 + -1 = -2
Thinlómien -> 0 + +1 = +1
Formendacil -> 0 + +2 = +2
littlemanpoet -> 0 + +1 = +1
Gurthang -> +1 + 0 = +1
SamwiseGamgee -> +1 + +1 = +2

So, lastly, the inevitable list for this little voting test (by that I mean Part 4):

Looks innocent:
tar-ancalime
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Looks suspicious:
Lalaith
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier


I'll return later and finally decide what I conclude from all that.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I can see that Formendacil is pretty much staying out of it. Might be the right thing to do, as I don't know.

Alas, but I can stay out of it for no longer. I'm off to work pretty quick, and I might not be back before the deadline- if I'm back at all.

So I must vote.

Well, Samwise looks suspicious, right enough- there's no denying that. And, in the absence of other candidates (Naria's still around, I'll grant, but she wasn't TOO suspicious yesterday, and I'm too hesitant to do it today...), I guess I'm stuck with him.

++ SamwiseGamgee, with several misgivings.

[Caranlondien]

Note: I typed this up before Gurthang posted his voting analysis, and before Formendacil voted, but the site was acting all weird and I had to reload it...

Formendacil made a good response to my last comment. But speaking of flying under the radar... he is certainly doing so.

For the moment though, my suspicions are focused on Samwise and LMP. I have to say I'm more suspicious of LMP than of Samwise. I'm afraid I may have a case of, well, whatever disease you want to call it when you get suspicious of whomever you analyze. Thinlomien made a good point about that.

[Caranlondien]

Tar-a, thanks for putting into words everything I was thinking but couldn't quite put my finger on about LMP. Like you, I'm feeling a little doubtful (as I was a strong critic of TGWBS yesterday), but LMP seems very subtley manipulative.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm starting to get verrrry worried about lmp.

Over and over again he tells us that a wolf will strive to say as many true things as possible so that the lies will slip through.

Again and again he brings up the Day 3 voting, reminding us that Lhuna voters are the most obvious suspects from that data pool. In an aw-shucks manner he notes his own presence in that cohort; is he hoping that his honest-Abe act of continually reminding us of that situation will make him look better? (the lmp of my mind: "But I didn't mean me! Would I really have kept bringing it up if I was a wolf?")

And frankly, his constant massaging of my and others' egos is starting to smack of flattery. I have to admit it's worked so far, but really, he's starting to lay it on a little thick, don't you think? Talking about my (and Caranlondien's, and spawn's) "intellectual acuity," proclaiming me innocent at least once a day (this would be one of the "true things" a wolf should say, btw).

And, finally, there's this:

b. Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP should be considered to be the most suspicious.

at the end of an analysis based on: voting, the suspicions of the dead innocents (looking for Seerish stuff, I think), and people who've given the "least help." These three have all voted for Lhuna twice; Samwise also shows up (wrongly, I think) on lmp's "least helpful list;" cutting him loose and ending the flattery, perhaps? Samwise and Caranlondien are also among the few who've been talked about today, with Samwise looking like an early favorite for lynching.

The wolf-poet is bowing to expediency again, as he did when he voted to get rid of Lhuna, and as he has done throughout the game when he has flattered those whom he wished to influence, or whom he saw as threatening. Note that not too long ago, both Caranlondien and Samwise showed up on these "too smart to be guilty" lists.

Also, this list of three suspects (which conveniently includes the hot topics of the day) once again includes himself. It's the same shtick he's been pulling for days with his constant reminders that he voted for Lhuna. (the lmp of my mind again: "Aw, c'mon guys! I'm just being scrupulously honest, here! I didn't really mean me!")

I'm becoming more and more tempted to call his bluff. However, my hand is stayed by the knowledge that I was one of Glirdan's most vocal critics yesterday, and look where that got us! Pride goeth before a fall, and I was very proud of myself for voting Farael on Day 1, challenging Lhuna on the non-tiebreak, and voting for Kath. So I'll wait a little (call it a cooling-off period) before casting my vote.

EDIT: Cross-posted with a whole lotta people; I don't have time to consider all of these posts right now.