Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Caranlondien]

My goodness, what an exciting scene took place while I was visiting my brother in the neighboring village! I know that we're left seemingly in utter confusion, but I take heart in our successes thus far.

I have to practice my harp (coughlinguisticshomeworkcough), but I shall return soon and scour Jenny's posts for clues...

[Diamond18]

Well this is just... weird. I was expecting Zali to be the Orc Meat last Night. I'm not sure whether or not this casts suspicion on her, though. In a way, it does look like Zali sacrificed her fellow Orc Jenny, for the sake of looking innocent, but maybe that's just what the Orcs were going for by killing Spawn instead.

I find it interesting that Zali did not reveal the role of the person she protected until I asked her. If she was an Orc, and making herself look like the innocent Ranger was part of her plan, she would have identified Spawn as the protected right away in order to set up a reason for Spawn to die in the Night, right? Unless she was laying out the bait and I bit it. I do find it interesting that she revealed Rangerness without really any prompting, and in the face of what seemed like a very advantageous situation. I pointed out that the Ranger could protect her during the night, and she right away owned up to being the Ranger. This could be a mistake or a calcuated move.

But I don't know. I really feel like Zali is innocent. I think the Orcs killed Spawn because A) just like killing Zali, they were ridding the village of a known innocent B) they wanted to kill her anyway C) this puts Zali in a slightly shady light.

So, until further notice, I'm going to keep on thinking of Zai as innocent. I personally think it a bit stupid on the Orcs' parts to leave the Ranger alive, for purposes of a rather weak bluff, but oh well.

As to player analysis (particularly of the mad hatter, Jenny) I'll follow up with some of that. I'm not sure about doing as complete an analysis as I did before, or just mentioning red flags for or against innocence. I'll see how tired I get.

Despite this bit of Zali/Spawn confuddlement I'm still in rather high spirits about Jenny's demise. I mean, it's not every day my instincts prove good, so I could be lynched unanimously and still be happy.

Back with more.

X-posted with, er, well when I started this post we were still on page 6.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Well this is just... weird. I was expecting Zali to be the Orc Meat last Night.

I agree with most of the things you stated, but not this one. Maybe we all should start to see, that the dreamers are just like vessels - they are not shamans. There is no major reason for orcs to kill the dreamers: as Jenny rightfully noted in her fury, it's highly improbable, those people get another dream - and if I may add to this point of Jenny's - their innocence is known to orcs already (no news to them, and thence no special reason to kill), unlike to us, who are not able to see the innocence or guilt of a dreamer, even if she gives us an orc...

That's partly, why I have been worried about last night...

Off to bed now! Will be back, and try to do more than yesterday.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Maybe we all should start to see, that the dreamers are just like vessels - they are not shamans.

I know that. I never said otherwise. But Zali claimed/admitted to being the Ranger. This is paramount to saying, "Hey, I'm gifted and I can't protect myself, kill me."

Though, now that I think about it, if they really thought Spawn was the Shaman, they'd know that Zali could protect her again, and would go right for the source.

Of course, the joke is on them, since Spawn was not the Shaman. So now we have both the Shaman and the Ranger both living.

I am working on analyzing Spawn's posts now, looking at them with the slant that the Orcs found something there that screamed "Shaman" to them. I've got some theories which I hope are not total bunk.

[Diamond18]

The Short and Tragic Life of One Strangely Named Elf Who Was Too Smart for Her Own Good
Or, an Analysis of Spawn's Posts

I'm going to approach Spawn's posts with the assumption that the Orcs thought she was the Shaman, and that something in these posts made them extremely uneasy. There are alternative modes of thought, such as that the Orcs want us to analyize her posts with the mindset that they thought she was the Shaman. But I can only handle so many theories knocking about in my head at once.

Spawn's posts:

#31 - #34 - #44 - #140 - #158 - #166

In her first post, Spawn puts forth a very sensible argument that the dreamers should opt for sound arguments rather than obscure hinting. Any ordo could do this.

In her second post, Spawn names some names -- Diamond, Roa, Findëasëa, Sleepy Ranger The first two, she seems suspicious of. She brings up Findëasëa's newness and seems ready to be forgiving of it. To Sleepy she makes a vague comment that is mostly a reply. This makes Diamond and Roa seem the most suspicious in her view. Roa is the one she spends most time on.

In her third post, Spawn votes for Roa.

Result: Spawn's Day 1 posts cast the most suspicion on Roa.

On to Day 2:

Even if she was the Shaman, she would not have any special knowledge because her dream would have gone to Zali. But it's still worth taking a look at what she said.

In her fourth post, Spawn explains her reasons for the previous Day's posts. Knowing she was an Ordo, we can pretty much take her at her word when she said she was just posting things that had caught her attention. Making, in other words, sound arguments. But maybe you're an Orc reading this and think, "She's the Shaman and she dreamed of Roa and she knows Roa is an Orc."

First post, she goes over more names -- Azaelia, Findëasëa, Grendelien, Naria, Kitanna, and Legolas. She doesn't seem very suspicious of any of these people.

Third post, votes for Nogrod. She doesn't want to put Diamond in the lead for lynching. She doesn't mention Roa again.

Result: Day 2 eases some suspicion on Roa, because if you're thinking Spawn's the Shaman and knows Roa's dirty little secret, wouldn't you think she'd continue to go after Roa? Her vote for Nogrod would have to be based on her face value reasoning, because as the Shaman she wouldn't have gotten her own dream. So why would she abandone the guilty Roa and go after someone she couldn't know about? Maybe, as an Orc, you just assume that she's trying to protect herself and not seem too "Shamanlike" by continuing to go after Roa based on logic that has been called into question by Nogrod.

The combined Days posting makes me suspicious of Roa, depending on what the Orcs are thinking. It's entirely possible they saw how suspicious it would make Roa if they killed Spawn. On the same token, isn't it kind of stupid to kill someone who has boldly accused you? Roa's not stupid. And what does all this say about Nogrod? He seemed highly suspicious of Spawn's reasons for voting Roa. Would an Orc, worried about his fellow Orc being in the spotlight, seek to force her accuser into admitting being the Shaman? That seems unwise. Because you'd get your fellow Orc killed, even if you did then confirm who the Shaman was. Wouldn't it be more wise to carefully avoid addressing Spawn's comments in hopes that no one really notices ?

Okay, that's it for now. I'm disinclined to vote for Roa. I'm not sure what to think of Nogrod. I am going to look at Jenny's posts.

[Celuien]

Okay, this may be a little confused because it's late for me and I really should have been asleep for about half and hour, but I had a few thoughts...

First: Jenny-O interactions from day 1 -

There's one thing that's making me sort of uneasy about Sleepy. If you look at posts #13 and #47, Jenny expresses joking suspicion of a few villagers, one of whom was Sleepy. Sleepy then votes supposedly randomly for Jenny in #48 and says this:

Solely for that comment, yes, I know that my vote choice (and reason) will be dis-liked by most people but I don't see JennyHallu being voted off so yeah...

It almost looks like wolves distancing themselves from one another with light suspicion and a safe throwaway vote tossed out as randomness.

So Sleepy moves to the top of my suspicion list based on day 1. I haven't thought too much about what he's done since then, other than to guess that if he's an orc, Naria is innocent since he went along with Jenny's accusation. Actually, that back and forth with Jenny at the end of yesterday looks fishy, but like I said, I haven't thought too much about it yet. I want to hear what this plan is that he hatched yesterday.

Two: What Spawn might have called on day 1 to look like she had a dream:

On day 1, Spawn suspected Roa the most and voted for her. If she was right, Orcs might have suspected a Roa dream and chosen to kill her before she could reveal. However, Spawn tends to be more subtle than that, so I'm not sure that a Spawn as a suspected Shaman would have been thought to have voted for her identified dream on the first day. Her other suspects from #34 were Diamond18, Findëasëa, and Sleepy Ranger. So any of them could have been Orcs wanting to eliminate a Shaman who potentially spotted them. And would have had more cover than an Orc-Roa who would immediately have moved to the top of the suspect list, which makes one of those three a more likely Orc than Roa in my mind. Actually, it fits with my Sleepy Orcsie theory nicely. Especially since my suspicion of Diamond has waned significantly and I don't have much to make me suspect Findëasëa.

Okay. Off to bed. See you in a bit.

[Celuien]

Afterthought: Sleepy as an Orc fits for those who want to believe that Jenny really meant it when she said the last Orcs had two word names...

[Nogrod]

I have smoked a couple of cigarettes thinking about this - as I couldn't get sleep - and now Celuien's posts really made up my mind. We have non-retractable votes, and I know, some of you might vote before I get back online after some sleep.

So, I'll follow my principles, I've stated - and discussed earlier, and go on to reveal a dream.

Sleepy is not an orc.

The things I have been wondering before Celuien's posts, have been:

- When should the dream be revealed? That was decided by the post of Celuien and my need of sleep: there could be some serious voting before I come back, and we can't afford an innocent lynch - if we can avoid it. This lessens the scope for our targets by one.

- Could the revealment really be helpful or not? Now I say yes, because the orcs have lots to think about: they missed the seer by going after Spawn two nights in a row, if so, then they can't be sure about Zali's rangership either, and now they will be given Sleepy's known innocence. There are some nuts to crack for you monsters! What to do? Yes, what to do? Chew that!

- Should I hide my knowledge? Well, I have been such a loudmouth, that I have a constant fear of death every night, that I just can't count on my waking up at each game morning. If I died the next night, my dream would have been wasted, and with these suspicions stated by Celuien - and partly by his own behaviour the first day - Sleepy would have been lynched one day, quite soon - and that would have been just one more innocent lynch.

So here we go. Carpe diem Sleepy! Show that you can be of help! I know, I'm putting you to a harms way now, but that's just to make things harder for the wolves. You can face death, look it straight to the eye, don't you?

EDIT: X-posted with Diamond & Caran

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sleepy is not an orc.

Well there goes my theory. I doubt that the dream is a lie.

Known (?) innocents:
Zali
Sleepy

Votes:
Diamond -> Kitanna (Kitanna -1)

I'd better find myself some more suspects toDAY. Unfortunately, it's a somewhat bisy day since I have rehearsals tonight, which is going to complicate my suspect search..

[Nogrod]

So. Assuming that Zali has told us the truth, we will have quite a clever orcish thing going on.

Trying to kill Spawn on the first night was a clever thing. It would take out one good player(Spawn), and point the finger on another (Roa). So kind of a "two-in-one" -stuff.

Killing Spawn on the second was clever too. It was safe (no ranger coming in between there any more), and it made Roa look even worse + it also casted some minor doubts on me (Spawn, who now was proven innocent, had suspected and voted for me DAY2).

On these grounds I think it was wiser for them to kill Spawn first - pressing on the villagers suspicions towards their active fellows. Zali could be on their list next.

So the whole stage is set for us to suspect Roa (and possibly me too). In an individual scene, Jenny then tries to make us believe, that we should get rid of Spawn, Roa, Diamond and me.

Enough for the time being for me to go on jumping over either Diamond or Roa. [Edit: Oh this broken english of mine! I mean: I'm not going to waste my energy on them today]

If that is the case, we will really have to start working on this.

[Sleepy Ranger]

First off I'd like to say, I shall accept death and all that may come of it. My journey so far has been great and I really enjoyed playing a fool on Day 1, Day 2 turned the tide in our favor and I did begin to stop acting like a fool, this may be our last day together so I shall try my best to help you as well as I may. I don't blame you for anything Nogord, you did good. I knew you were innocent though I may have been in a bit of doubt earlier.

If I'm not back again this time tommorrow.... Carry on... Carry on... Doesn't really matter

Too late... my time has come... send shivers down my spine, bodys aching all the time... good-bye everybody I've got to go, got to leave you all behind and face the truth

Mama... ooo (any way the wind blows)... I don't want to die, I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all

Sorry couldn't resist doing that...

My Opinions On You!

Caranlondien: Possibly Innocent
I don't really see anything wrong with her but theres something in the back of my mind that keeps telling me that her posts have a level of guilt in them. Are you hiding something from us Caranlondien? If so, cough up.
Possible Risk: ***
---

Nogrod: Innocent
I was certain of his innocence since the time Spawn was proved innocent. To me it seemed Spawn was coming onto him too hard, which made it look like if she were a wolf then she was trying to make it look like Nogrod was innocent (which he wouldn't be) yet Nogrod has been reasonable and I believe that hes innocent.
Possible Risk: None to us
---

Grendelien & Findëasëa: Possible Orc(s)
They both seem to have that new person demanor for some reason, they seem like they want to try their best to help. I don't like it. However it would be odd for both to be orcs so I'd say if one is an orc the other is innocent however theres a big chance both are innocent.
Possible Risk: ***
---

Celuien: Innocent
I think Celuien is innocent... I could be wrong but I think she is... y'know I think she may be the shaman...
Possible Risk: **
Note: She is the shaman!
---

Zali: Ranger
---

Diamond: Innocent
Its obvious shes an innocent, I refuse to listen to any theories anyone would have regarding her. If at the end of all things Diamond is revealed to be an orc I'll drop my title of 'King of Quotes'!
---

Kitanna: Orc
I'm almost certain Kitanna is an orc that and I've never liked players who are too aggressive. I'll probably vote for her or Naria today.
Possible Risk: *****
---

Naria: Orc
I don't know why but I believe JennyHallu for some reason...
---

Sleepy Ranger: I... am... Sleepy... Ranger...!

---

Legolas in spandex: Hopeless noob
That is all that needs to be said.
---

Roa_Aoife: Innocent
At this stage I can't see her as anything but.

[Farael]

It was a rather slow day in the village, voting-wise. It seemed some people had secretly celebrated the lynching of JennyHallu and many a hung-over face could be seen. Some accusations were tossed about, some accusations were responded to. For most of the day, Kitanna was the lead candidate for lynching, accumulating 5 votes as the day went on. There were still about six more people to vote and the time of the lynching was drawing closer, when something extremely unlikely happened.

Grendelien, Naria and Nogrod decided to vote at the exact same time. Their votes were swiftly recorded on the vot-a-tron and thus this sudden cheap-shot of destiny sealed Kitanna’s fate.

They grabbed her and tied her to a long pole. Yet they could not decide what to do with her, so they left the pole leaning against Farael’s lab wall and huddled up to decide what to do.

Nogrod: “I say we burn her. These wereorcs deserve nothing better”

Naria: “No, we’d spend too much firewood, and for some reason it’s still freezing cold even though we are supposed to be in mid-winter right now. How about we throw here on the river and let her drown?’

SleepyBarrel: “No, she’d float… she’s tied to a pole”

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

Grendelien: “Sleepy! You promised not to kill anyone else after Day 1”

Sleepy: “Its not me.. what IS that noise?”

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

Naria: “Erm, Roa where did you get that pole from?”

Roa_aoife: “Oh, yes I forgot to tell you. I found it in your flower shop”

Naria: “Did that pole happened to have a hole close to the top?”

Celuien: “Why, yes! It was the perfect size to fit Kitanna’s head on”

Naria: “Did anyone look inside the hole to see what was in?”

The question was answered by many embarrassed looks.

Naria: “I will share a secret with you…’

Findëasëa: “She is a wereorc!! Lynch her!!”

Naria: “See why I hardly ever talk? It’s impossible with you guys. No, I’m not a wereorc. What I was going to say is that I.. .well, I have a pet woodpecker. That log of yours is it’s home”

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

The villagers went pale as they heard the knocking sound again

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

Azaelia went to her house and quickly brought a blanket. They covered Kitanna’s body without looking and then lifted the covers enough to see one of her hands. It had long, white fingers with well polished nails, Kitanna was clearly not a wereorc.

The village fell silent, they had lynched their first innocent even if by accident. Disgusted, they all went home, without noticing they had forgotten something. Or rather Someone.

Legolas in Spandex was still standing next to Kitanna’s blanketed body, and she decided to lift the blanket and take a peek. With a scream, she ran away into the forest, never to be seen again.


There are still 2 wereorcs, a Ranger and a Shaman living.

Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
JennyHallu: Doomsday prophet
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Diamond: Inept Jewel Smith
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife aspiring ballad writer

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
GlirdanRepentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.
JennyHalluWereorc: Escaped the village, but could not escape the laws of physics.
Dancing Spawn...: Just a merchant: Trapped on a deathly spider’s web.
Kitanna:The town's gate-keeper: Had a lobotomy performed by an angry woodpecker.
Legolas in spandex: Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator): Overwhelmed and or frightened into leaving the village after seeing what had happened to Kitanna