Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Celuien · 04-18-2006, 06:51 PM

Looking briefly at Diamond's posts, here top suspects from yesterday were:
Kitanna
Naria
Legolas in spandex

At the end of yesterday's voting/auto-eviction, only Naria remained alive. If Diamond's suspect list was a factor in her selection, that either means Naria is an Orc who killed Diamond to protect herself, or that Naria is innocent and Diamond was killed to start a lynch Naria bandwagon.

Naria doesn't seem to be a bold sort. So I don't think she would have gone for a suspicion causing bluff (look at me! I can't be an Orc if Diamond was killed - it brings to much suspicion on me) as an Orc by killing Diamond. For that reason, I think Diamond's death points to Naria's innocence.

Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

(Apparently confirmed innocents underlined.)

I know that I'm no Orc. So the last two Orcs are to be found among Caran, Nogrod, Grendelien, Findeasea, Naria or Roa. We have a 1/3 chance of catching an Orc today.

What I'm wondering is if it's worth revealing more dreams today. There are still two unrevealed dreams out there. If those dreams are of villagers in that group, then we would improve our Orc catching chances to 50/50. Or would it be better to wait until tomorrow? If we're wrong today and lynch an innocent, we start tomorrow at 5:2 for villagers, so tomorrow is when it's critical that we lynch an Orc.

Of course, our number of unknowns could increase overnight too if Zali or a dreamed-of villager dies. It's up to you who received dreams to decide, I guess.

What does everyone think of this?

04-18-2006, 06:51 PM	#11
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Looking briefly at Diamond's posts, here top suspects from yesterday were: Kitanna Naria Legolas in spandex At the end of yesterday's voting/auto-eviction, only Naria remained alive. If Diamond's suspect list was a factor in her selection, that either means Naria is an Orc who killed Diamond to protect herself, or that Naria is innocent and Diamond was killed to start a lynch Naria bandwagon. Naria doesn't seem to be a bold sort. So I don't think she would have gone for a suspicion causing bluff (look at me! I can't be an Orc if Diamond was killed - it brings to much suspicion on me) as an Orc by killing Diamond. For that reason, I think Diamond's death points to Naria's innocence. Caranlondien: aspiring harpist Nogrod: unemployed barber. Grendelien: village whittler Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist Celuien:lampwright Zali: stringer-of-bows Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers Sleepy: A barrel of apples Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer (Apparently confirmed innocents underlined.) I know that I'm no Orc. So the last two Orcs are to be found among Caran, Nogrod, Grendelien, Findeasea, Naria or Roa. We have a 1/3 chance of catching an Orc today. What I'm wondering is if it's worth revealing more dreams today. There are still two unrevealed dreams out there. If those dreams are of villagers in that group, then we would improve our Orc catching chances to 50/50. Or would it be better to wait until tomorrow? If we're wrong today and lynch an innocent, we start tomorrow at 5:2 for villagers, so tomorrow is when it's critical that we lynch an Orc. Of course, our number of unknowns could increase overnight too if Zali or a dreamed-of villager dies. It's up to you who received dreams to decide, I guess. What does everyone think of this? __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.