Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Nogrod]

This is getting intresting - and I'm getting more afraid every day, for our orcs are no basic-orcs. Sadly, they seem to have intelligence.

I don't think killing Diamond was jumpy or without a very cunning reasoning behind it (so, I don't believe, that Jenny was the "leader"-orc).

But clearly, our ranger (whoever she is) was played fool this night - and I'm very much afraid of the next night, if that indeed is the orc-plan. Then our shaman has some tough choices to make today. And if Zali is our ranger, she has been made to look quite guilty as well. And I think, most of the villagers were beginning to trust Diamond to be innocent, so no bad choice that either: vocal, well-hunched (at least what comes to Jenny), likely innocent - who would not have been protected with high probability. So I'm not so sure, ´whether Diamond's posts help very much. She seems to be just an ideal kill before the real one the orcs are after.

[Nogrod]

I totally agree with Celuien, that we should really start thinking about our chances with some revealments. Two innocent-lynches more, and we are about done with. I quess we can make a mistake today, but not any more tomorrow.

But going on with the calculations by Celuien.

The shaman is alive, and has one dream = two innocents known (or even better: one known innocent and one known orc!)

I had the dream on Sleepy, and know my innocence = two innocents known (and I understand, that you can't take this for granted - just from my point of view, then)

If Diamond (or an orc) wasn't the dreamer (chances: 7/10), we have one more dream from last night = two known innocents (or even better: one known innocent and one known orc!)

Assuming Zali innocent, at least for the sake of an argument, we might have, in the best case, 7 known / believable innocents / orcs! That would leave just two unknowns!

These wouldn't be "granted innocents" to all of us, but somewhat believable to guide our attention: to start taking better look at those not known yet. We would have very very bad luck indeed, if both orcs would be included in this known or believable innocents list! And I guess we have pretty nice chances, that there is no orc on the list - so the orcs are among the 3-4 (5?) unknown?

Of course there are possibilities that make this not so good a plan.

We can't be 100% sure about the dreamers, but we may trust those dreamed of to be what they are. Of course, there is the possibility of an orc jackpot too: an orc receiving a dream about another orc - when that orc really should "reveal" her fellow-orc as an innocent. And I must agree, that you have a reason to apply that possibility to the case of me & Sleepy. Although, as happily the probability for this is quite small, I'm not sure, whether one should go on betting on that option.

Also: the shaman might have had her first dream on me - or the one receiving the dream last night. That would reduce the number of known / believable persons with one.

So, what to do?

I would think it wise for the dreamer to come forth with her dream. It would ease our task to pick the wolf tonight. Our shaman must look at the situation herself, and judge it, as she sees best.

And if by some unprobable twist of the situation, Zali would be just a ranger impersonator, our real ranger probably should come forwards quite soon, pointing to Zali's orcishness. If an orc would try to twist this revealement, we would be killing innocent Zali tonight, but getting the orc tomorrow, and I don't quite think, the orcs would like to be reduced to one at this point of the game. And anyhow, I'm quite positive about Zali's innocence, so this probably isn't something we should be very much afraid of.