Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, so now that I've had my mini-rant here (see my last two posts), I feel like I should get down to business.

I think it is highly likely that Naria will be getting a vote from me again toDay. It's not really a retribution for suspecting me so strongly--I'd be put off by her post whether or not its target was me. It would probably be almost funny if I was an orc: I'd be able to smile and perhaps make the part about me "lying through...orc-teeth" my sig line. However, I agree with Caranlodien that her last post does look like a set-up for some other orc to come along and say that they were really the ranger.

And Naria, if you're so convinced I'm an orc, why did you want to know who I protected last night--it's obvious that whatever I say, you can and will use against me.

And about Naria, herself, I think that she is either an orc (most likely) or just very ensnared by orcish plans. She has given a prime example of what everyone else is SUPPOSED to think about me (except that I am confirmed innocent now--thanks, Grendelien).

I'm much more inclined to think she's an orc, though.

[Naria]

First off, I would like to offer my apologies to Zali. We needed to know for sure what was going on and what your role was. Yes you came out and declared yourself the Ranger, but that didn't necessarily mean you were(for sure). Thanks to Gren for saying that yes you are the Ranger, I have no doubts whatsoever now that you are the Ranger.

I also added Celuien in there because I thought that she may be the true Ranger and just beating around the bush about it. I honestly didn't think that she was faking to be the Shaman....her hints came across to me as Rangerish. Now that I know better of the two of you, there will be no more talk from me about this issue. So thanks to both of you for what you have done for the village.


I know that I am innocent and implore you all to trust me on this
Nogrod
Sleepy
Zali
Celuien

Then there's just two left(Orcs)
Caran
Gren

Roa, I just don't know about....but I believe her to be innocent.

[Nogrod]

I love the news concerning Zali!
(Purely from villager's point of view, her orcishness revealed, would of course have been "better", but I have kind of trusted Zali so far, so I'm very happy with this)

It's looking far better now, anyhow. Okay, there is this chance of 1/4 x 1/8 =1/32 (? - I'm so terribly bad in probability maths), that Grendelien getting the dream is an orc and Zali another - and that the dream was of Zali. I wouldn't bet on it a penny, or a cent just now. If a rivalling ranger-claim comes forwards, I might think of it - we all should - but before it, I'm taking this as granted from now on. We have under four hours of time, and yet to pick a wolf today.

So I just came back, and have to see the things again...

EDIT: (again...) X-posted with Naria

[Caranlondien]

I have to go eat, and I’ve only gotten through Day 3 on my analysis of Roa (I already analyzed her Day 1 & 2, and I just don’t have the energy to go back through it).

Roa:

[B]Day Three[B]

#237: Wonders why the orcs killed Spawn instead of Zali. Thinks perhaps Jenny didn’t mention any of the other orcs, although maybe she did. Says we can’t be sure that Zali is the Ranger. Says we should go back and figure out why the orcs killed Spawn.

#239: Thinks it’s strange that Nogrod would suggest we don’t try to figure out the orcs’ strategy until toMorrow.

#244: Clarifies that she just doesn’t want us to proceed with the assumption that Zali is innocent. Doesn’t think the true Ranger should come out if Zali is lying. Also thinks we shouldn’t agonize over Jenny’s final posts, as they’ll likely just distract and confuse us.

#245: Says she’s just tossing out possibilities.

#274: Says that just because Nogrod got a dream doesn’t mean he’s innocent. Says Diamond isn’t above suspicion just because Jenny was attacking her.

#289: Lists those who Jenny did not mention (all of whom are now proven innocents except me). Says that from this list, she most suspects Kitanna. Wonders about Zali’s statement that Jenny was too good of a player, since Zali didn’t seem to make much of a case against her.

#290: Lists the vote count, wonders who we haven’t heard from so far.

#293: Summarizes Kitanna’s actions so far.

#294: Analyzes summary on Kitanna. Says she seems careful and she’d like to hear more from her.

#295: Says that only [B]Legolas iS[/U] hasn’t posted yet.

#300: Warns Zali to be careful about what she says, if she really is the Ranger, as the orcs might figure out whom she’s going to protect.

#302: Votes for Kitanna; mistakes closing time as an hour earlier.

#305: Says it doesn’t really matter that she mistook the time, as her opinion probably won’t change.

#309: Asks Grendelien if she has anything to add, since she’s here.

#312: Decries self-voters, saying that if Kitanna truly is innocent, she’d help the village more by trying to prove that than by helping to lynch herself. Says that it actually makes her look more like an orc trying to bluff her way out of dying.

#315: In response to Nogrod’s analysis of Caran, points out that two quotes of mine which Nogrod said are contradictory aren’t.

#318: Responds to Nogrod’s response.

#319: Relists vote count.

#331: Lists those who have already voted.

#333: Urges those left to vote to hurry. (There are a couple more posts like this, so I’ll just leave them out).

#336: Defends herself against Findeasea’s accusations. Says she thinks she has been contributing a great deal.

My thoughts: It’s funny, I only noticed this because in one of her early posts, she asked if she could call me “Caran”, but I noticed that she calls Grendelien “Gren” when no one else has. Perhaps she didn’t feel like typing in the whole name, or perhaps she got used to the “Gren” thing PM-ing the Night before…

What really strikes me, though, is her apparent helpfulness, while she really says very little besides poking holes in people’s theories and generally promoting confusion.

[Roa_Aoife]

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

++Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.

Edit: Cross posted with last three.

[Nogrod]

Roa!

You are either too sincere, or then a frustrated wolf. And I really can't say which, for now...

But I must say, that vote of yours looks very suspicious! For your chance of being right seems to be 1/32. Well, that's a chance - and we should not openly outrule it, but still, I wouldn't bet on it...

Must come back to reading this.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Roa (again)

The only good reason to kill Zali tonight is another ranger-revelation. You know that as well as we others know it... So why this vote?

Or maybe it's you two? As you see, suspicions are easy to throw at people. I would like to see better. But still, I do not like Roa's sudden vote at all.

I try to make something like a Sherlock Holmes -puzzle, trying to cross-examine different possible pairs. It might take a while, but I'll keep my eye open and see the thread every now and then.

[Nogrod]

Triple posting: Where are you people?

So what do we know now about us people?

Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

“revelations” (by):
day1 not known (Shaman)
day2 Jenny –orc (Zali)
day3 Sleepy – innocent (Nogrod)
day4 Nogrod - innocent (Naria)
day5 Zali – innocent (Grendelien)

This looks somewhat trustworthy, as those dreams have criss-crossed each others. There is always the "maybe", but the probability of an orc having a dream of another orc is quite low...

If we would trust the dreamers too (from 3/4 to 2/3 probabilities), it would leave us with the unknowns:
Caran, Celuien, Roa...

As I am kind of “double credited” (shaman wanted to see, whether I was fooling with my revelation). It leaves the situation of the dreamers as Naria being a bit less suspicious than Grendelien – but that’s only mathematics, not anything we should jump for at this point...

But then people getting over each other – or defending them.

There is a nice threesome, that looks quite convincingly innocent to me now (it could be two orcs using an ordo to come along with them, of course).

That is Grendelien – Zali – Celuien.

Celuien’s depiction of her actions match with my suspicions – I thought she was taking the role of a shaman as the situation made it possible (I myself thought of adding to the confusion among the orcs by “revealing” myself as the shaman on DAY4 – I checked, that I could have had a convincing case: Celuien was first on all my innocent-lists DAY1, so that could have been the shaman-hint, if I would have been dead after NIGHT1 – happily or not, Naria’s revealment kind of undid my possibilities of doing it, as no shaman dreams of himself...), and I have tried to back her up ever since. She seems very logical in her twists and turns with this shaman impersonation – and possibly has pulled the leg of those orcs for a couple of times... (killing Diamond as believing her being protected + trying her last night)

She has the theory of orcs going after Spawn the first two nights, because the open suspicion on Roa (by Spawn, that is). That is believable, if what Zali tells us is true, that she defended Spawn the first night. (Btw. she also trusts Naria.)

Zali admitted protecting Celuien last night. If she’s the real ranger, she wouldn’t lie. So if there is no rivalling ranger claim, we should believe her – and thence believe Celuien also... Of course there might be some wolfish thing here, but, wait for Grendelien... (Btw. She is declaring to vote for Naria.)

Grendelien dreamt of Zali last night. Added, that we could trust Celuien as well. Somewhat she is also seeing Roa a bit less suspicious. If she would be an orc, she probably wouldn't have told us about Zali's innocence - had she the dream! An orc, having an innocent dream today, would just have shut her mouth? Or tried to confuse us by being seemingly helpful...

I’ll come with more in a minute (½ hour or something...)