Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

And since you asked, I protected Celuien last Night.

Thank you, Zali!

(See. I told you all I was was innocent. )

If you'll excuse me for about 45 minutes, I just got home from work, and would like to make myself some dinner before immersing myself in village business once again.

Roa continues to be my main suspect, in case you're wondering.

[Nogrod]

If, what I wrote, makes sense...

We have “proven” innocents:
Sleepy: I know that, as I got the PM
Nogrod: dreamt by Naria
Zali: dreamt by Grendelien & giving us a wolf

We might have some reason to believe on the innocence of:
Celuien: reasonable pattern of behaviour, backed by Zali

Somewhat innocent, although a bit unnervingly:
Grendelien: revealing Zali dream – might play also?

Naria: revealing my innocence, first today suspecting Zali & Grend – after revealment leaving both out of speculation, says had seen Celuien as a ranger and played along by suspecting her – trying to cover her path?

Totally unknown = detached from this revelation stuff:
Roa: some good arguments on behalf her innocence (the anxiety over Diamond...), some odd things to have done – f.ex. today: first saying, that she’s traveling today and not back until the last hours + promising to have something interesting to say then. Next call in: vote for Zali + saying visiting friends. If Celuien-theory is right: she's a wolf.

Caranlodien: Played well and intelligently. Today somewhat confusing (might be understandable - I am confused too): First suspects Zali & Celuien's thought of Naria being innocent. Then saying orcs are Naria, Roa or Grendelien (all suspicious) – adding that Grend is not so much so. Next suspecting Roa by the way she addressed Grendelien as Grend just by that and wasked permission to use Caran from her...

[Nogrod]

So my top suspicions at the moment (not reflected through, but now), at the order of suspicion, and at relative distance away from each other...

Naria / Roa


Caranlodien


Grendelien

Relatively assured of innocence:
Celuien

Zali


So the highest is the most suspicious, the lowest the least, regarding the whole list... But really: I don't know about these relative merits, this is just a hunch based on reasoning (=everyone's playing well)

PS. Remember: I may be somewhat skilled in bringing forward points or theories, but my hunches are bad indeed (in four WW-games this far, I have been proven right twice - or three times: and you just wonder the number of cases from which these three must be deducted... )

[Celuien]

(Lovely, lovely chicken, rice, string beans and garlic bread. )

Where was I? Right. I'll borrow Nogrod's format and present my suspect list, in order:

Roa
Caranlondien

Naria


Grendelien

Proven innocent:
Zali
Nogrod
Sleepy
Me (check out the math below)

I'll start out with Grendelien, as my least suspicious un-proven innocent.

Throughout the game, Grendelien has been insightful and helpful. I think revealing the dream to some extent confirms her innocence. I'll posit that an Orc in receipt of a dream about Zali would be hesitant to reveal it (choosing instead to remain silent - no way for us to know who got the dream and was Orcishly holding out even if the Shaman did come forward and list who was dreamt of) because that dream gave two confirmed innocents: Zali and me. There's no way for me to be an Orc if Zali guarded me. And if you want to go with the highly spurious theory that Zali is not what she claims to be, by the way, I'm still exonerated, because that theory requires Grendelien to lie as well, which would make Zali and Grendelien the last two Orcs. All three of us couldn't be lying. But that's probably the nuttiest argument that could be made right now in the abscene of an alternative Ranger claimant appearing at a fairly critical point.

No matter how you slice it, Grendelien's revealing the dream increases the pool of knowns significantly and greatly narrows the field of Orc suspects.

Therefore, because Grendelien narrowed the unknown pool to herself, Naria, Caran and Roa, I find her most probably innocent.

As for Naria, I've already made my case about her. Nogrod and Zali - there's a very good reason for her to have suspected me yesterday, and for her to have voiced suspicion of you, Zali. For that reason, I'm a bit hesitant to vote for her. See if you can work out what that reason is. I'm curious to see if you come to the same conclusion if you work from the idea that she's innocent. I could be all wet, but you never know...

Which leaves Roa and Caran. Actually, besides my process of elimination, the two of them seemed oddly coordinated in their attack on me today. Almost as if they'd worked it out beforehand. Notice that both of them react strongly to my list of remaining unknowns. Of the two, Roa is still my top suspect because of what I said before, and because of this post:

Originally Posted by Orc Aoife

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

(plusses removed by me)Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.

As I've said before, it makes no sense at this point for Zali not to be the Ranger. The real one would/should have come forward by now. And how can she seriously continue to imply suspicion of me with that opening question if she also believes that Zali is not the Ranger, and that Grendelien by extension is the second Orc? 3>2.

And so my vote, once again, goes to

++ROA_AOIFE

PS to Sleepy;

I don't have the time to post a good post right now but I just wanted to tell Celuien that she did a good job playing along. Just a note to everyone, if I really thought she was the shaman I wouldn't have said it.

Thanks. I sort of figured that's what you were up to. Quite an inspiration.

[Nogrod]

Today's vote:

Roa --> Zali (Zali 1)

Where are you?

Without another ranger's dream, we should not kill Zali... = my voting for someone else wouldn't matter, as Zali has had the first vote...

EDIT: X-posted with Celuien

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where are you?

Oh, I'm here. Just a slow typer.

[Nogrod]

As we seem to not have seen any rivalling ranger claims, I'm believing the innocence of Zali and by that way, of Celuien (her good argumets were a kind of affirmation to me).

So. Maybe I was wrong with Roa last night (**hatestoadmit**)? Maybe her apparent distress about Diamond's (innocent!) life was just a fake one? I'm not totally easy with this one, but then again, Celuien's (supposedly innocent) theory on Spawn seership would point quite openly to Roa...

Twenty minutes, and wants to hear from you others too.

[Nogrod]

Roa --> Zali (Zali 1)
Celuien --> Roa (Zali 1, Roa 1)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, my clock is majorly freaking me out--I keep thinking I only have about 5 minutes, so I'm just going to vote now...though I'd like to hear from Sleepy, who hasn't shown up since his early post--this isn't like him.

I'm voting

++ROA

today, for reasons already outlined in my previous post.

And if I'm dead toMorrow, keep an eye on Naria, since I think she's the other orc.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

And if I'm dead toMorrow, keep an eye on Naria, since I think she's the other orc.

Will do.

Truly great Rangering, Zali.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

And Nogrod, I agree--everyone is playing exceptionally well this time around.

Cheers to all--to the orcs for running us around in circles for a while

To our shaman--for the consistantly good dream choices

And to the rest of the village--for generally making the best of a difficult situation, and being reasonable, helpful, and consistantly intelligent.

Rock on!

~Your friendly neighborhood ranger, who doubts (for the billionth time) that she'll be alive come morning.

Edit: Cross-posted with Nogrod and Grendelien (whose tense-ness I can completely understand)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Roa's last post has me worried...and not just because she voted for me. Maybe I seem a little defensive, but it is, as you all must know, very difficult when you know you are innocent and others just don't see reason.

That said, I am in agreement with Nogrod about the order of my suspicion--My top two are Roa and Naria.

Naria's most recent post looks like a hasty cover-up to me, a quick back-tread in an attempt to avoid suspicion...Something about this doesn't feel quite right.

And I must say that Roa's vote for me lacks decisive proof that Grendelien's dream should not be trusted, and her main reason for lynching me in particular is that I have been alive for too long, and suggests that my continued survival is an orc plot to get the real ranger to come forward.

Well. I think that Roa is playing more dangerously, and I'm still not sure quite how she managed to escape the noose yesterday. So I will be voting for her, unless something changes in the remaining 20 or so minutes we have in the game.

Edited to fix time--my clock is fast.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

Well. I think that Roa is playing more dangerously, and I'm still not sure quite how she managed to escape the noose yesterday.

Well there is an answer to that... I was there, believing Roa's troubledness in front of Diamond being killed. And if she is a wolf - which I'm inclined to believe now. I'll just have to bow to her: wonderful performance!

[Nogrod]

Ok. Why are we hiding?

I'll go for it, and try to make well my last night...

++ Roa

[Grendelien]

Gah! I just got back, I was afraid I wasn't going to make it....are we not voting for another hour? (I always get it wrong)